Wednesday 2/5/20 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NCAAB, NBA & NHL games.
Stephen Oh
LAMAR -5.5
CENT. ARKANSAS @ LAMAR | 2/05 | 8:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 7:59 PM
My model says that the Cardinals cover the spread 65 percent of the time, so you're getting great value playing them at this point spread. Lamar is coming off a victory at McNeese in which Davion Butler tied a school record with 11 3-pointers. The Cardinals have won two of three overall and own a 12-7 advantage in the all-time series. The Bears' streak of six straight covers ends here.
6-4 IN LAST 10 CBB ATS PICKS | +141
INDIANA +5.5
INDIANA @ TORONTO | 2/05 | 7:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 7:45 PM
My model says that the Pacers cover the spread 66 percent of the time, so you're getting great value playing them at this point spread. Three of Indiana's next seven games are against the red-hot Raptors, including each of its next two. The Pacers posted a 120-115 overtime victory at Toronto in their previous meeting this season. Indiana is 8-1 ATS in their last nine Wednesday games while the Raptors are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight following a win by more than 10 points.
8-5 IN LAST 13 IND ATS PICKS | +251
N.Y. RANGERS +1.5
TORONTO @ N.Y. RANGERS | 2/05 | 7:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 7:31 PM
My model says that the Rangers cover the spread 74 percent of the time, so you're getting excellent value playing them at this spread. New York posted a 5-4 overtime victory at Toronto in the last meeting between these teams. The Maple Leafs will be without No. 1 goaltender Frederik Andersen due to a neck injury. Take the Rangers +1.5 goals at -207.
13-5 IN LAST 18 NHL PICKS | +629
3-0 IN LAST 3 TOR ATS PICKS | +300
N. DAK. ST. -3.5
N. DAK. ST. @ NEB.-OMAHA | 2/05 | 8:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 6:39 PM
My model says that the Bison cover the spread 67 percent of the time, so you're getting great value playing them at this point spread. North Dakota State has won three straight and five of its last six contests, with four of those victories coming by nine or more points. The Bison also posted a 10-point win over Omaha in the championship game of last season's Summit League tournament and is 49-33 in the all-time series.
6-4 IN LAST 10 CBB ATS PICKS | +141
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Larry Hartstein
BOSTON -6
ORLANDO @ BOSTON | 2/05 | 7:30 PM EST
12:47 AM
Boston has won seven of eight, with each of those seven wins coming by at least eight points. Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart are questionable after sitting out Monday's win over Atlanta, but even if one or both can't go, the Celtics have underrated depth. Orlando (9-16 on the road) is coming off a rare road victory, but winning in Charlotte and winning in Boston and totally different things. Lay it.
71-54-2 IN LAST 127 NBA ATS PICKS | +1168
56-36-1 IN LAST 93 BOS ATS PICKS | +1670
6-1 IN LAST 7 ORL ATS PICKS | +490
MEMPHIS +4.5
MEMPHIS @ DALLAS | 2/05 | 8:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 11:51 PM
Dallas is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 home games and won't have Luka Doncic (ankle). J.J. Barea (ankle) also might be out. Memphis has won 12 of its last 15, and Ja Morant is averaging 8.4 assists over his last 12. The Grizzlies should at least keep this close. Take the points.
71-54-2 IN LAST 127 NBA ATS PICKS | +1168
36-21 IN LAST 57 MEM ATS PICKS | +1316
19-14-1 IN LAST 34 DAL ATS PICKS | +349
TORONTO -6
INDIANA @ TORONTO | 2/05 | 7:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 11:11 PM
The Raptors have covered four straight home games, come in on an 11-game win streak overall, and face a Pacers team still trying to adjust to Victor Oladipo's return. Toronto is shooting 50.4 percent from the field and 39.7 percent from deep during its win streak. Indiana won't have T.J. Warren again, and he averages 18.3 points. Lay it.
71-54-2 IN LAST 127 NBA ATS PICKS | +1168
11-5 IN LAST 16 TOR ATS PICKS | +554
27-21 IN LAST 48 IND ATS PICKS | +408
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GregNbaPlays
Utah Jazz -7
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H&H Sports (NBA) - 4* Clippers/Heat Over 223 (-104) USDICE
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Rick Gehman
Paul Casey ($10,500)
This field is very weak and falls off a cliff, so I think you'll benefit from grabbing one of the top four golfers. As much as I love Dustin Johnson, Paul Casey offers a $1,100 savings with just as much upside.
Casey has played a ton all over the world since the end of the 2019 PGA season. He played well in that time, including a win at the Porsche European Open and a T5 at the Emirates Australian Open. His skillset as one of the world's elite ball-strikers should be a great fit for these courses this week. Casey's recent results here also are encouraging, with an 8th-place finish in 2018 and a runner-up last year.
Viktor Hovland ($9,100)
The golf world is waiting for the emergence of Viktor Hovland, who turned pro midway through the 2019 season. He came flying out of the gates last season and showed us his incredible upside with 8 Top 20s in his 10 starts following the U.S. Open.
Unfortunately, it's been more uphill for Hovland since, turning in three MCs in his last four starts worldwide.
I'm willing to buy low on Hovland, whose recent run has driven his price down to a very manageable tag. Hovland has all the stats to boast about, including his +1.11 strokes on approach (2nd in the field) and leads this field in strokes gained total.
Hovland should find some good vibes around Pebble, where he competed as an amateur in the U.S. Open last year. He finished T12 and earned the "top amateaur" title for the week.
Max Homa ($8,300)
Despite winning the Wells Fargo Championship last season, Max Homa goes mostly overlooked in the golf community. That will be difficult to continue if he keeps playing the way he is right now.
Homa enters the week with back-to-back Top-10 finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open and Waste Management Open. It's always good to see him charge up the leaderboard on the weekend, which he did last week, tying Tony Finau for the most strokes gained in the last two rounds.
Additionally, Homa notched a 10th-place finish at Pebble Beach last season and has the best Sunday Strokes Gained numbers at Pebble Beach (+3.74) of anyone in the tournament's history (minimum two starts). If Homa is in contention on the weekend, I expect him to continue to move up the leaderboard.
Adam Hadwin ($8,100)
In a field this weak, I'm trying to roster some known entities. Adam Hadwin is exactly that. We haven't seen much of Hadwin recently, who just had a new baby. He returned last week with a respectable 40th place finish at the Waste Management Open.
As he knocks off the rust, I expect him to get right back to business. He's been excellent in all facets of his game this season, ranking 12th in Strokes Gained Total. His putter is capable of getting scorching hot in a moment's notice and his lack of driving distance (108th) won't hurt him this week.
Sung Kang ($7,300)
Now we start getting into some fliers. There are flaws with nearly every golfer in this field, especially when you start getting down below $8,000. Sung Kang is no exception. He ranks 157th around the green this season, which is a major concern with these tiny Pebble Beach greens. He's capable of carding a big number at any point in the tournament.
However, there are some positives to glean from Kang. He's made six of his last seven cuts, including a T16 just two weeks ago at Torrey Pines. He's also had great success in this event with a 14th in 2019 and a 17th in 2016.
In fact, in his second round in 2016, he gained 12.19 strokes, which is the single best round on the PGA TOUR dating back nearly 20 years (123,000 rounds). Here's to hoping those good vibes come back again this week.
Tyler McCumber ($6,600)
Tyler McCumber offers one very good skill-set for this week and that is his driver. He's 4th in the field in driving distance and is a positive gainer in both Strokes Gained Off-The-Tee and birdie or better percentage.
The last time we saw McCumber was at Torrey Pines, where he finished 21st. That type of finish would do us just fine this week.
Summary
With great risk comes great reward. This is not a safe lineup. This is not the lineup you want to use to double your money. This is the type of lineup you use to finish dead last or win all the money!
The overall composition of this field and the unique nature of the event prompted me to take on more risk with fliers at the bottom (Kang & McCumber). We balance those two with more solid options (Hawin & Casey). Then round it all out with elite skill-sets and recent form (Hovland & Homa).
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CleInsiderSports
NBA
Pacers/Raptors UNDER 216.5
NCAAB
Loyola Chicago -1.5
LSU/Vanderbilt OVER 146.5
CS Fullerton +1
NHL
Maple Leafs/Rangers OVER 7
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
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Hot Shot Sports
NBA
3* #588 LA Clippers -6.5
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RALPH MICHAELS
Basketball Plays
Game: (809) Mercer at (810) Furman
Date/Time: Feb 5 2020 7:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Mercer 11.5 (-108)
View Analysis
#809 5% Mercer +11.5 Furman 7 PM
I understand the line as Furman comes into this game at 18-5 while Mercer is 12-11. This Mercer team however has a first year head coach and started the season going 6-11 with TWELVE different players getting starts this season as they tried to find a groove. We’ll the Bears have found that grove with 6 straight wins including beating the So-Cons best team E Tenn St on the road 71-55. In conference play Mercer has played the tougher schedule and is shooting 49.6% while allowing 42,6% and Furman is shooting 47.3% and allowing 46%! Despite being hot I don’t think Mercer gets the full attention of the Furman squad as the Paladins have won 9 straight in the series. I WOULD PLAY AT LEAST HALF A UNIT ON THE ML
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SHARP TOTALS Club
2*Nebraska Omaha Over 143
2*Clippers Over 223
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the Champ NBA System bet for February 5th:
Phoenix Suns {C} bet - Official series. Buy 3 points at no worse than -170 odds.
Miami Heat {C} bet - Official series. Buy 3 points at no worse than -170 odds to bring the spread from +6.5 to +9.5. If the {A} bet loses, then the {B} bet on the Heat will take place on the 7th. If both the A & B bets lose then the {C} bet on the Heat will be on the 9th.
However, in checking the schedule I believe MIAMI is an (A) bet and NOT a (C) bet. Above is what they posted.
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Date Expert Rating Game Play
Feb 5 Marco D'Angelo 4% [CBB] (825) TCU at (826) Oklahoma State
Time: 8:00 PM EST TCU 3.0 (-110)
Analysis:
(825) 4% TCU +3
I generally have a ruke that when two teams are struggling I will look to the dog. That starts us out on TCU. Then I look at Oklahoma St who is one of the worst offensive teams in the country laying points that puts me on the dog. Note of 353 College Basketball teams only 38 teams have a worse shooting % than Oklahoma St. Note Oklahoma St has been a money burner at home all year going just 2-9 ATS. When facing a Conference opponent this year Oklahoma St is 0-8 ATS. Oklahoma St does play with revenge but that hasn't mattered as they are 1-7 ATS in revenge this season. My Numbers have TCU winning by 1-3 points. TAKE TCU as my BIG 12 SHOCKER
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The Linebacker
OKC-12.5
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WUnderdog
NBA
oklahoma city-13 vs cleveland
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College Basketball(BOB BALFE)VIP
8:00 PM EST
Rotation #821-822
Northern Iowa/Valparaiso Over 147
Northern Iowa won the first meeting this year, but Valpo played very well on the road. This is a team that did not have Ryan Fazekas in the lineup and now tonight he is back. Both teams play all guards and their offenses are better than the defense. Every single player on the floor is capable of scoring. Valpo has a decent bench and I would not be shocked if they could pull the upset tonight. This should be a close game which also should mean late foul shots at the end if needed. Look for both teams to continue the hot shooting against each other. Take the Over.
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Larry Hartstein
Utah Jazz -9
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Bill Marzano
Toronto Raptors -6
Miami Heat +6.5
Boston Celtics UN 208.5
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Miller locks
7:00 pm est ncaab
creighton vs. Providence
pick: Creighton +2 (-109)
risk: 11 units
7:00 pm est ncaab
southern illinois vs. Evansville
pick: Southern illinois (-164)
risk: 11 units
7:00 pm est ncaab
clemson vs. Virginia
pick: Virginia -7.5 (-101)
risk: 11 units
8:00 pm est ncaab
north dakota state vs. Nebraska omaha
pick: North dakota state -2 (-114)
risk: 11 units
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Elite Sports Picks
Miami-Florida +3.5 over North Carolina St. (NCAAB)
Insider Sports Report
4* Memphis -7.5 over Temple (NCAAB)
3* Seton Hall -1 over Georgetown (NCAAB)
3* Drake -1 over Bradley (NCAAB)
National Sports Service
4* Wofford -5.5 over V.M.I. (NCAAB)
3* Southern Illinois -3.5 over Evansville (NCAAB)
3* Toronto -6 over Indiana (NBA)
Primetime Sports Picks For 02/05/20
4 Unit --> California-Riverside -1 over California St.-Fullerton (NCAAB)
3 Unit --> Mercer +12.5 over Furman (NCAAB)
3 Unit --> Miami +6.5 over L.A. Clippers (NBA)
Top Rank Sports Picks
Marquee Picks® For 02/05/20
4★ Toronto -6 over Indiana (NBA)
3★ West Virginia -12 over Iowa St. (NCAAB)
3★ Bradley +1 over Drake (NCAAB)
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Larry Hartstein
Phoenix Suns -3.5
John Bollman
Boston Bruins OV 6
Micah Roberts
UNLV OV 141
Creighton +2
Michael Rusk
TCU UN 129
Missouri State -6
Utah Jazz -9
Indiana Pacers +6
Phoenix Suns -3.5
Mike Tierney
Wisconsin UN 128
Seton Hall UN 145
NC State UN 142
Clemson +7.5
Zack Cimini
Samford +4
Boston University -2
Golden State +6.5
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Worlds Worst Picker
Peabody’s picks
Villanova
Clemson
Drake super pick
We take
Butler
Virginia
Bradley super pick
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