Since it is just WNBA both comp and premium plays will be in one thread,premium plays will have the service name highlighted.
Wunderdog
San Antonio at Washington
Pick: OVER 147.5
What a difference a year makes. San Antonio was the best team a year ago in the regular season finishing with a 24-10 mark, while Washington limped out of the season at 10-24. There is a clear difference with the Mystics turnaround. Last year's edition was starved offensively as they finished dead last in the league in points per game, but this year they are scoring 78.5 a contest, besting last year's mark by ten a game. The Silver Stars always potent at home have won just once on the road this season and just arent the same team. The Mystics have been producing 80ppg at home on the season, a mark they reached just twice in 17 home games a year ago, so clearly a much more potent offensive team. The Mystics have a 56-22 mark to the over in their last 78 vs the West and six of their last seven vs San Antonio have eclipsed the total, including a game that featured 166 points in San Antonio earlier this season. I like this one to go OVER the total.
Andre Gomes
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Atlanta Dream @ Minnesota Lynx
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These two teams faced each other a couple of weeks ago and the totals line were 174 points but yet the game ended with 176 points. For this contest we are dealing with 10 points less without any kind of relevant factor that justifies such huge lines drop.
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After that game the Dream played four more games and those games ended with the Under cashing 3-1. However I’m not buying the idea that they are playing better defense or worst offense. This is all about matchups and opponents characteristics… In this league there are 4 teams that play in a fast pace: Phoenix, Minnesota, Atlanta and Chicago. Saying that is not a big surprise that these 4 teams are the WORST defensive teams of the league. Well during that 3-1 Under’ span the Dream faced Washington, Indiana, Connecticut and New York. A quick look in the defensive stats (points per game allowed) and we can say that Atlanta faced the best defensive teams of the league and naturally some the games stayed bellow the total posted.
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WNBA Defense Sorted by ppg allowed:
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1 Indiana 68.2
2 New York 70.7
3 Seattle 70.8
4 Connecticut 71.0
5 San Antonio 73.0
6 Los Angeles 73.3
7 Washington 77.2
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However when Atlanta faced “those” fast paced teams the Over is a solid 3-0 and what about Minnesota? The answer is 4-0 Over! The matchup between these two teams favors a high scoring game as Atlanta has a huge edge in the frontcourt/rebounds battle and the Lynx have a better backcourt. Yesterday Lynx coach Jen Gillom said she hopes her team can counter the mismatch in the frontcourt by speeding up the game. My real line for this game is 168/171 points and I see some value on the Over in here.
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Pick: Over 164.5
IndianCowboy
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Take the 'Over' 141 between the Detroit Shock @ Seattle Storm
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The line continues to drop and at this point, I think the value on the over is fairly decent. The line has dropped about five points as these two teams catch up in Seattle. Detroit makes the trip out to the West coast after their big win over Conn in OT on the road. This Detroit team has been on an over trend lately after a slow start to the season - which was aided in part by Coach Bill stepping down at mid point in the season. Detroit is 6-0 to the Over lately and with Seattle feeling comfortable at home usually, they should put up their fair share of points as well. The Over is also 6-1 when the Storm come off 2 days rest and I expect Sue Bird to push the ball today. Bear in mind that she shot 1 for 10 from the field in her last contest against the Sky and I expect her to have a big game today. The Over is also 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams in Seattle.