Ian Cameron
10* Ottawa / Toronto Over 52.5
SPORTS WAGERS
Ottawa -106 over TORONTO
After being flat in their home opener at their new home back in Week 1 and getting whacked by the Tigercats, the Argonauts went on the road for consecutive games at Saskatchewan and B.C. and won them both. As a four-point pooch in Saskatchewan, the Argonauts won by 13 and as a 6½-point pup in B.C., Toronto won by 11. That’s back-to-back double-digit wins for the Double Blue and now their back at home with their stock high. We can’t sell fast enough. The Argonauts have been outgained in every game thus far. They have been outgained by a combined 232 yards. In its win over the Riders, Toronto was outgained by 127 yards. In its win over B.C., Toronto won the turnover battle 4-0, which resulted in a time of possession edge of 32 minutes to B.C.’s 28 minutes but the Argonauts were still outgained by 83 yards. In their win against Saskatchewan, the Argos had 11 first downs to Saskatchewans's 24 and lost the time of possession battle by a wide margin of 37 minutes to 23 minutes. That Toronto emerged victorious in one game, let alone two out West in a minor miracle. The Argonauts are priced here like they’re the Redblacks equal but they are not and it’s not even close. The Argonauts are 2-1 but deserve to be 0-3, as they have not come close to outplaying any of their three opponents and the opponent they’ll face tonight will be their toughest assigment to date.
Argos Head Coach, Scott Milanovich made the choice to go with Ricky Ray as his starting quarterback this season and it hasn't been pretty. Ray has failed to throw for more than 300 yards in a game this season. In Week 2, Ray completed just 13 of 22 passes for 186 against the Riders and truth be told, he just looks old out there. The 36-year-old Ray isn't getting any help up front either, as the Boatmen are tied with the Bombers for the most sacks allowed in the league with 10. Man, are they up against it this week.
A lot of folks bet the Redblacks last week and ended up ripping their tickets after a 26-26 draw. Ottawa had numerous chances to win that game and it’s actually a miracle that they didn’t. Ottawa fumbled the ball on Calgary’s one-yard line in the dying minutes. In OT, a Redblack defender missed an interception in what can only be described as perhaps the easiest pick in the history of organized football that would have sealed a victory. Ottawa came away with a tie but it had to feel like a loss because they had the game won not once, but twice.
Then there’s Trevor Harris, who has turned out to be the biggest free agent signing so far this season. Since coming on in relief of an injured Henry Burris in Week 1, Harris leads the league in passing with 1083 yards and his nine touchdown passes are nearly twice as many as the next five guys all tied with five TD’s apiece. Harris spent his first four seasons in Toronto with the Argos and when it was clear Scott Milanovich was sticking with vet Ricky Ray, Harris signed with Ottawa. Harris has downplayed his return to The Big Smoke this week but he had an interesting take when he was questioned about his time alongside Ray and how beneficial it must have been. He said stuff like, "that was blown out of proportion” and that he's "learned a lot from everyone". Maybe it was a throwaway comment but when a guy skips town and doesn't move up the depth chart you've got to wonder. Now on the opposing sideline, Harris quietly figures to be extremely jacked up to stick it to his former “mentor” and team. The Redblacks are a powerhouse and by far the class of the East and perhaps the class of the entire league. Playing the other two best teams in the league, Calgary and Edmonton, the Redblacks outgained them by 105 and 148 yards respectively.
Despite playing a much tougher schedule than Toronto has, Ottawa is averaging an incredible 230 yards more per game than Toronto is after three games. You can break this game down 1000 ways and come up with the same conclusion, that being that this game is not a fair fight. It is priced like a fair fight because of Toronto’s extremely misleading record, which is something we’re going to try and take advantage of. With plenty of questions in all aspects of their game so far, we can't take the Argos seriously as a threat to Ottawa in the East. Toronto has not looked anything like a team that should be priced evenly against the juggernaut Redblacks. We’ll act accordingly.
M. McDonald +150 over J. Lineker
Wednesday night's fight night card will headline two bantamweight title contention hopefuls looking to put themselves on the short list to challenge for Cruz's title in the next year or so. Leading up to the fight, each fighter has had quite a contrast in what has happened in their MMA career over the past two years.
John Lineker comes into this bout 8-2 in the UFC and is currently riding his second four -fight win streak. Following his first four-fight win streak, Lineker was matched up against currently ranked flyweight Ali Baugatinov, which was easily his toughest test to date. Baugatinov was able to dominate Lineker by striking at a distance and timing numerous takedowns. Once taken down, Ali was easily able to maintain top control and glide to a three-round decision. Following this loss, Lineker would amass four straight wins over Ian McCall, Alptekin Oztikic, Francisco Rivera, and two months ago, going three rounds with Rob Font. While McCall is currently a ranked flyweight, none of these fighters have the same skill set or talent of Michael McDonald. The first win streak saw Lineker accumulate three TKO's, living up to his nickname 'Hands of Stone', however, he has not been able to knock anyone out with any consistency when facing better competition, only KO-ing Ozkilic two years ago. Not that Lineker has lost the power in his hands by any means, but it is clear that better fighters aren't as prone to having their lights turned out.
December 14, 2013 featured a match between bantamweight pioneer Urijah Faber, and a 22-year-old title potential prospect, Michael McDonald. Faber would prove to be too much, too soon for McDonald, as Faber secured a second round submission that was followed up by a two year, injury riddled, hiatus from UFC competition. McDonald re-entered the octagon in January 2016 and put forth a ring rust covered effort in a win over Masanori Kanehara. While the performance appeared to have been a shell of what the UFC hoped for, McDonald was awarded performance of the night. While the overall statistics in this match were not a great sign for the McDonald camp, the effectiveness of the success was very much so. With only five official significant strikes landed, and ten seconds of top control, McDonald showed that he is always dangerous wherever he is in the octagon. McDonald's career early on was picturesque, as he was able to climb the UFC's bantamweight division ladder, amassing five straight wins before receiving a title opportunity against then unbeatable champion Renan Barao. Sandwiched between this loss and the Faber loss, was one of McDonalds most impressive wins, a second round, submission of the night performance over Brad Pickett. A look at McDonald's method of victory is very impressive, as his six wins contain two submissions, two knockouts, and two decision wins over high end talent. McDonald is extremely well rounded, and has the power to match what Lineker will bring to this match, the hope will be that it is decided elsewhere, as McDonald should have a significant advantage on the ground over Linieker.
McDonald will have a significant/very relevant six inch height advantage, three inch reach advantage, and a three inch leg advantage. The blueprint to dominate Lineker is out there in the Baugatinov fight, and McDonald has all the tools to mimic that blueprint. McDonald is now 25-years-old and has work to do to get back to the title contending form he was in two years ago. The opportunity now presents itself to take full advantage and get a win vs. a fellow ranked opponent. While his injury and two year absence raises a definite red flag, the fact of the matter is that it happened in his early twenties, and he has had one 'tune-up' before fighting top level competition once again.
There is also a theory behind what the UFC brass wants, and there is a large evidence trail that they want the best for McDonald. Seeing a kid rise through the ranks at such a young age, indicates that the UFC is grooming and praying for the next big superstar. Being given a title shot and a match vs. Faber early on along with many stylistic matchups back this up. There is also the 'Performance of the Night' bonus he was given in his last match vs. Kanehara. While the fight was great, and the perseverance was impressive, it is tough to agree with the award. On the other hand we have John 'pain in the ass' Lineker. Lineker has messed with the UFC's match makers for years, missing weights cuts four out of eight times, forcing the UFC to ban him from the Flyweight division. While not having to cut weight will not hamper Lineker in this fight, being issued McDonald definitely will, and the match makers know it.
This line is indicative of ring rust that McDonald definitely had following the return, and how popular John Lineker's fighting style is. We have seen many times where a well rounded fighter, although less popular in the public eye, has a distinct advantage over pure strikers. Taking the tag on the more well rounded fighter, with physical advantages is the play.
MMA OddsBreaker
Cody Pfister vs. Scott Holtzman
Pick: Cody Pfister
Cody Pfister and Scott Holtzman actually have very similar skill-sets. Both fighters are ground-focused, although Pfister is a bit more wrestling-based while Holtzman is more submission/grappling-based. Holtzman has not been impressive in his UFC run thus far, recently getting outscrambled by Drew Dober in his last fight. I feel Cody Pfister can secure top position on the ground during scrambles with Holtzman and as long as he doesn't get submitted along the way, he can at least win a decision. Pfister should also be able to hold his own and then some in the stand-up department against Holtzman, who still has a ways to go to be competitive there.
Jim Feist
Ottawa at Toronto
Pick: Over
The Unbeaten Ottawa RedBlacks (2-0-1) have been impressive, winning a pair of road games to open the season. They come off a strange 26-26 tie at home last week, but this is still a dynamite offense. RedBlacks quarterback Trevor Harris was sensational again, 39-50 for 394 yards. The Redblacks also have the top offensive unit in the CFL. They face a Toronto team playing well and ranked 8th in offensive output. I don't see how the Argos will be able to contain the explosive Ottawa offense here.
Wunderdog
Connecticut @ Indiana
Pick: Connecticut +8
Connecticut comes off a 67-63 loss against Atlanta, but the Sun still has won two of its last three games, including an overtime win over Minnesota as an 11.5 point underdog. Alyssa Thomas had 19 points against the Dream. Indiana is home after a three-game western swing which ended with a 93-82 win at Seattle. The Fever shot a blistering 58 percent against the Storm with Breanna Stewart scoring 32 points and pulling down 11 rebounds. The Sun is 7-1-2 ATS its last 10 games after an ATS loss and 5-1 ATS its last six road games and 4-1 ATS its last five games overall. Indiana is 0-3-1 ATS its last four home games and its shooting percentage should cool off after Sunday's win as it averages 44 percent for the season.