Free Picks for Friday, April 21st, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
MARLINS AT PADRES
PLAY: MARLINS -118
I won going against Trevor Cahill in his last start, and will follow that up by doing it again. Cahill was actually really good for five innings against the Braves. But then his command vanished and he and the Padres bullpen got lit up late by Atlanta.
There really aren’t many spots to play against Cahill due to what will generally be high price tags on the opponent, but that isn’t the case this evening. So with a reasonable tag, I decided to focus on the Miami side and look for red flags that might force me to leave the game alone.
I really don’t see much to indicate the Fish aren’t a right side here. Adam Conley has been effective in his two starts. I wouldn’t put much into the one loss on his ledger. That occurred in a marathon battle against the Mets where Don Mattingly basically ran out of relievers and had to go to Conley when he was scheduled to start the next day.
Moving away from the starting pitching, Miami has a substantial offensive edge, particularly when factoring in San Diego’s paltry attack numbers vs. southpaws. The road team also has the better bullpen by a considerable margin off the early season data. The Padres are on a modest two-game win streak but I’m betting against that continuing and will back the Marlins tonight.
Jim Feist
Maple Leafs vs. Capitals
Play: Maple Leafs +1½
Young Toronto has held its own in this series, tied 2-2. They have a Top 5 offense and have not been scared of mighty Washington. The Maple Leafs are 6-2 in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. They have won 2 games and lost the other 2 by one goal, tallying 14 goals in four games. They have more than enough to win or lose by one goal.
Ray Monohan
Houston at Tampa Bay
Play: Houston -110
The Astros will go for their seventh win in eight games when they take on the Rays, and they have a lot of value. The Astros are hot and have been getting really good starting pitching this season. They have a team ERA of 3.12 which is 4th in the Major Leagues.
On the other side of this match up is the Rays, who haven't been getting as great of starting pitching. They have a team ERA of 3.62 which is 11th. On the mound for the Rays is Alex Cobb. After winning his first game of the season he has given up four earned runs in each of last two starts. Some trends to note. Astros are 4-0 in Fiers' last 4 road starts. Rays are 6-0 in Cobbs last 6 Friday starts. Rays are 1-4 in Cobbs last 5 starts.
Scott Spreitzer
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -103
Both teams come off extra-inning road wins on Thursday and Baltimore will start Dylan Bundy, who has a 1.86 ERA and pitched six shutout innings on five hits at Toronto on Sunday. The Orioles lost Bundy's start at Boston on April 11, however, he allowed only three runs in 6 1/3 innings and the bullpen did the rest of the damage. Also, Bundy has 17 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings this season. Drew Pomeranz had a good start at home against the Orioles, but then didn't make it through the fifth inning against Tampa Bay on Sunday when he threw 103 innings in only 4 1/3 innings while giving up five runs and five hits. The Red Sox have lost nine of their last 12 road games dating to last season and Baltimore has won seven of its last eight homes and four of Bundy's last five home starts. Pomeranz faced the Orioles once last season and was touched for five runs and four hits in just two innings. I expect more of the same.
Dustin Hawkins
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks +125
LA Dodgers are 18-29 against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The Dodgers are also only 10-16 against the money line in road games after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better over the last 2 seasons. LA Coach Dave Roberts is 9-20 as manager of the team against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 as the manager of LA DODGERS. ARIZONA is 2-2 (+1.3 Units) against LA DODGERS this season .
Sean Murphy
Rockets vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder -2½
The Rockets seem to have the Thunder's number right now, but this is the NBA. That can change in an instant.
A return home should help Oklahoma City's cause, noting that it has gone 26-14 SU on this floor this season. The Rockets are a good road team, but the playoffs are a different animal entirely.
Russell Westbrook doesn't have the same supporting cast he has in recent years, but I still expect this team to put up a fight. Game 1 was a blowout, but we did see the Thunder push back in Game 2. Look for them to do a better job of closing the deal this time around.
Rob Vinciletti
Boston vs. Baltimore
Play: Over 8.5
This game fits a powerful 86% totals system pertaining to the over for home teams when both teams are coming off road favored wins while both scoring 4 or less runs. The Redsox are 3-0 over as a road dog off road favored win and Baltimore is 5-0 over at home off a road win scoring 2 or less runs. Pomeranz pitching for The Sox has a 5.23 Era this year and Asher for the Orioles was bombed in his lone start vs Boston. Look for this game to play over the total.
Brandon Shively
Kansas City vs. Texas
Pick: Texas
The Texas Rangers are much better than their record would indicate. Texas is a team that should finish in the top six or eight in the majors in runs scored. Their offense is due to break out of their slump. Cole Hamels is on the mound too, and the Rangers are 24-8 in his last 32 home starts. Hamels is a work horse and he is the type of guy that helps get a team going.
The Royals are a team I'm very low on for this year. Kansas City has a really weak offense and Nate Karns is very inconsistent as their starting pitcher here.
This price is relatively expensive, but it is worth it. Texas gets the job done here.
Chip Chirimbes
Mariners vs. A's
Play: A's -129
No one likes to play in the Oakland Coliseum (even the A's or Raiders for that matter) except for maybe the Mariners. Seattle is 20-7 in their last 27 meetings in Oakland while the A's are just 6-13 in their last 19 home games. But, no so fast my friend as A's have just won their last three here and the Mariners are 1-7 on the road this season. Oakland's Sean Manaea (0-1, 5.51 ERA) tossed five hitless innings his last time out but had no decision because of control issues. He was 2-0 against Seattle in his rookie season last year and will post a win here today.
Handicappers Hub
Clippers vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz +1½
This Utah Jazz crowd will be ready to go tonight and will be a very hostile place to play. The Jazz will feed off that energy where they went 29-12 on the season and even though they do not have Gobert I still like them in this spot.
Look for Utah's defense to keep them in this game early and then the hot shooting will get going at home to push them past the Clippers for a big home win!
Will Rogers
Yankees at Pirates
Pick: Under
The set-up: The 10-5 NY Yankees are coming off an 8-1 homestand and have won nine of their last 10 overall, scoring at least seven runs six times during that span. They open a three-game IL series tonight in Pittsburgh vs. the Pirates, who have opened just 6-9, after losing three straight 2-1 decisions while getting swept in St. Louis. While the Yankees are MLB's second-highest scoring team at 5.13 RPG, the Pirates rank 27th, at 3.27 RPG. The Yanks have 22 HRs (3rd-most), while the Pirates have hit half a s many (11).
The pitching matchup: The Yankees will send veteran lefty CC Sabathia (2-0 & 1.47 ERA) to the mound up against Pittsburgh's Tyler Glasnow (0-1 & 12.15 ERA). C.C. was once New York's unquestioned ace, massing 88 victories in his first five seasons in the Bronx before winning only 18 times in the last three years combined. However, Sabathia has looked like top-of-the-rotation starter through his first three outings of 2017, going 2-0 (team is 3-0) with a 1.47 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, while holding opposing batters to a .182 BA! He gets the slumping Pittsburgh Pirates tonight, against whom he's 4-0 in five career starts against (teams are 5-1), while posting a 1.23 ERA. In stark contrast to the veteran Sabathia, Pittsburgh's Glasnow will be making just his seventh start and 10th appearance of his career. He suffered through a forgettable season debut against the Cincinnati Reds, lasting only 1 2/3 innings and giving up five runs while walking five batters and then was rocked for four first-inning runs Saturday by the Chicago Cubs, although he finished with seven strikeouts while yielding four earned runs in five innings. He remains in search of his first MLB win and has never faced the Yanks.
The pick: The Pirtaes have been punch-less so far (.229 team BA ranks 20th) and earlier in the week, lost star CF Starling Marte to an 80-game suspension for testing positive for the performance-enhancing substance Nandrolone. The Pirates have come about theri 6-9 record in an odd way. Pittsburgh is 6-0 in games played Friday-Sunday and 0-9 in games contested Monday-Thursday. Will that continue? Hard to see the Pirates reaching C.C. for too many runs plus that New York bullpen ranks first in ERA at 1.27. As for Glasnow, he can't be as bad as he has looked in his first two starts. Take the Under.
Larry Ness
Boston vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago
When the Cavs' late-season slump allowed the Celtics to claim the East's No. 1 seed with a 53-29 record, many pointed to Boston's plus-2.7 point-differential and proclaimed that this just might be the weakest No. 1 seed in NBA history. So far, the Celtics have done nothing to disprove that claim, losing Game 1 at home to the 41-41 Bulls 106-102 and then following that with an embarrassing 111-97 loss in Game 2.
"I'm not surprised because everybody's so locked in right now" All-Star swingman Jimmy Butler told reporters Tuesday referencing Chicago's play. "Everybody's putting in extra work right now, watching film, working on their game, and that's where your confidence always comes from." Butler has been outstanding, averaging 26 points, 8.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 2.5 steals while playing 84 minutes through the first two games. Wade was shut down in mid-March but returned for the final three games of the regular season, as he helped Chicago clinch a playoff spot by winning its final two games. He's now averaged 16.5-4.5-4.0 in the two wins over Boston. Former Celtic Rajon Rondo, a bust during the regular season (7.8-5.,1-6.7), has played like the Rondo of old, averaging 11.5-8.5-10.0. Then there is center Robin Lopez, who has played more like his twin brother Brook, averaging 16.0 (on 66.7% shooting) and 9.5.
The Celtics rely heavily on PG Isaiah Thomas () 28.9 & 5.9 APGbut he continues to grieve over the loss of his sister in a car accident prior to the series. He will be returning to the team after spending time with family in Washington, looking to recover from a Game 2 effort in which he scored 20 points on 6-of-15 shooting and missed an uncharacteristic six free throws. "It's super hard on Isaiah," head coach Brad Stevens told reporters Wednesday. "You can tell. I think that during the games and during walk-throughs and the film, he's trying his very best to focus." It sure hasn't helped that Thomas' backcourt partner, Avery Bradley, has gone 10-of-28 (35.7%) from the floor in Boston.
Stevens may shake of the lineup, with starting forward Amir Johnson (nine points in 27 minutes in the series), continuing to see a reduced role. That said, one wonders if Boston is capable of turning this around. Jimmy Butler, Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo have come together to lead the way plus the Chicago bench, most notably Bobby Portis (11.0 & 6.0) and Paul Zipser (11.0), have played no small part in Chicago's success. Play the Bulls, who go up 3-0.
Jesse Schule
Boston at Ottawa
Pick: Ottawa
The Sens lost Game 1 of this series at home by a score of 2-1, but have stormed back to win three straight. They have a chance to eliminate the Bruins at home tonight, and the bookmakers have Boston listed as a slight favorite. Ottawa has some big advantages in this series, starting with the goaltending. Craig Anderson has out-played Tukka Rask, which isn't that surprising considering Rask nearly lost his job as Boston's starter halfway through this season. Perhaps the even bigger advantage for the Sens is on the blue line, with Erik Karlsson proving he's still one of the league's best. Karlsson has five points so far in four games. The Bruins decimated defense is missing key players Torey Krug, Adam McQuaid and Brandon Carlo. The Bruins have lost six of their last seven at Ottawa, and 13 of their last 16 overall versus the Sens.
Mike Rose
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres
Play: Miami Marlins -118
We backed the Padres in each of their last two wins against the Diamondbacks, but I have a hard time envisioning Trevor Cahill lasting long enough in this one to help lead SD to its first three-game win streak of the season. It’s not like the offense is ripping the cover off the ball to give him enough run support with Myers and company plating a total of five runs in the two wins. Miami sports the better overall offense by far, and also holds an edge in the pen early on. Conley is by no means a world beater, but he’s the more experienced starter in this matchup. I expect him to give his club a better shot at pulling out the win, and will bet the game accordingly.