Power Sports
Chicago at Cincinnati
Play: Chicago
We're only 16 games into the season, but I think few, if any, would have expected the Reds to be ahead of the Cubs at this point. Shockingly, Cincy has gone 9-7 and it's not necessarily a mirage as they've outscored opponents by 18 runs. The Cubs have one fewer win and are just +6 in the run differential column. Interesting, however, is the fact that the Reds are just 4-6 at home. They just dropped two in a row here, getting shutout Wednesday and then 2-1 yesterday. The Cubs had Thursday off. It's time for them to show "who's boss" in the NL Central.
Pitching today for the Cubs is Jon Lester. It's criminal that he's still w/o a win (1-2 TSR!) given he's allowed just two runs in 18 IP. Last time out, he tossed seven scoreless innings, allowing three hits. Somehow the Cubs still lost 6-1. That "somehow" was the bullpen allowing six runs over the final two innings. Lester is 3-1 w/ a 3.32 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Reds. I expect him to dominate tonight.
Chicago has won 28 of 38 at the Reds' expense since the start of the 2015 season. They have won six of the past series between the two teams. That's domination. Last year, their lineup homered 42 times off Reds pitching, so my condolences go out to Tim Adleman ahead of time. This is a rough spot for him to make his season debut. The Cubs are 22-11 as a ML road fave of -175 or higher the L3 seasons.
Teddy Covers
Yankees / Pirates Under 8
The Pirates couldn’t hit a lick with Sterling Marte in the lineup. Now that he’s been suspended for 80 games, a bad lineup just got worse. Remember, Marte was one of only two outfielders with a +4.5 or higher WAR in each of the last four seasons. Mike Trout is the other. The Pirates have scored two runs in the two games since the suspension was announced.
Its certainly not like this was a particularly potent lineup when Marte was on the field. Pittsburgh has produced two runs or less in half of their last fourteen contests. They’ve yet to have a true ‘offensive explosion’ game, producing more than six runs only once all season.
Pittsburgh has been at their absolute worst offensively against opposing lefties, ranked #28 in MLB in batting average against southpaws (.171) and #29 in OPS (.521). That’s not a tiny sample size either, with a ‘middle of the pack’ 140 at bats against lefties thusfar.
CC Sabathia is not a guy I’ll be excited about playing Under the total when it comes to those hot, humid mid-summer nights. But here in April, with gametime temperatures in the 60’s, Sabathia is still fresh. Make no mistake about it – CC has been nothing short of outstanding in his first three starts, allowing only three earned runs. He’s coming off a dominant gem against St Louis, holding the Cardinals to three hits in 7.1 innings. And the Yankees bullpen behind him has been the best pen in baseball, allowing only six runs in 42.2 innings while notching five saves and two wins.
Tyler Glasnow went into Spring Training as one of the highest regarded pitching prospects in all of baseball, and he earned a place in the Pirates starting rotation after showing great promise with his September call-up last year. But Glasnow has struggled mightily in his first two starts this year. This is his shot to get it right, something he’s more than capable of doing against a Yankees lineup that isn’t built for slugfests. Expect a relatively low scoring affair here, staying Under the total.
ASA
Rockets at Thunder
Play: Over 224
Based on the home/road dichotomies along with pace of play and efficiency numbers this game should end with 228 or more points. We know it doesn’t seem like a wide margin but for our computer analytics it is. These two teams want to play fast as the Rockets are 3rd in the NBA in terms of pace of play while the Thunder are the 9th fastest. Houston is 2nd in offensive efficiency rankings, OKC is 15th (average). Defensively, the Thunder are 10th best in defensive efficiency rankings, Houston is 18th. We also like the fact that both teams get to the free throw line a lot which clearly helps ‘over’ bettors as we get points with a stopped clock. The Rockets are 1st (26.7) in the NBA in FT attempts per game while OKC is 3rd (25.8 ). In the last four meetings between these two teams, one of the two has gotten to 115 or more points by themselves. Houston is not great defensively overall, and they are even worse on the road. In their last 7 road games, they have allowed 116 or more points five times. Oklahoma City averages 110PPG at home on the season and shoot 46.9% on their home court. Both teams get out and run here and we expect plenty of points for an OVER win!
Brad Wilton
They just squeezed Over the total on Wednesday in Houston's 115-111 comeback win, and while the numbers show 9 of the last 11 played between the teams in OKC as having held Under, I will side with the recent series numbers that show 3 of the 4 meetings since January having played Over the total.
Russell Westbrook is a superstar, and likely league MVP, but he pretty much cost his team the game the other night. You can't blame him, it's his personality to take it all on his shoulders, and when you really don't have other mates that can create their own shot, well, you catch the drift.
Houston has James Harden who can get his own shot, and they also have Eric Gordon, Patrick Beverly, and to a lesser extent Lou Williams that can find their own shot.
Have to believe that the Rockets won't blink when the Thunder push the pace on their home court in an effort to get their loyal legion going in the stands, and I have to believe that the scoring will come in waves in this one, as we see our highest-scoring game of the series to date in Game Three.
Play the Rockets and Thunder to land Over the total.
2* HOUSTON-OKLAHOMA CITY OVER
Eric Schroeder
If this free pick analysis sounds familiar to my 80 Dime release in Game 1, it's because I'm basically rewriting it for Game 3 - that's how strongly I feel about the Utah Jazz getting it done against the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.
I told you the Jazz are the most dangerous team in the NBA Playoffs. And I didn't want you getting confused with me saying the Jazz are the best team or the favorite to win it all, that's not the case. I said most dangerous.
Utah poses a huge threat to upper tier of the Western Conference, specifically the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors.
I told you I didn't care about the Clippers dominating the Jazz, as L.A. headed into the postseason having won three of four during the regular season and 18 of the previous 20 meetings.
The Jazz won Game 1, stealing homecourt advantage. Now they'll take Game 3 and go up 2-1 in this series, as the Jazz are motivated being back in the postseason for the first time since 2012.
Remember me telling you that Games 1 and 3 are always the two most important games, as they can be defining. I said, if the Jazz wish to escape this series, these are the games they need to focus on.
Let's play the home pup in this one, as the Jazz aim for the outright victory.
4* JAZZ
Jack Brayman
After hitting the Under in the Nationals-Braves game as my free play last night, my comp winner for tonight is on the Baltimore Orioles against the Boston Red Sox, and in this one I want you listing the scheduled starting pitchers: Drew Pomeranz and Dylan Bundy.
These two just met on April 11, when Bundy took his only loss over his first three starts. There's no doubt he'll be in revenge for this one, as his outing against was the Red Sox was victory worthy after scattering seven hits and three earned runs over 6 1/3 innings while striking out three.
Bundy's only other opponent has been the Blue Jays, both in Boston and Toronto. The right-hander won both after giving up one earned run in the first meeting and nothing in six in the second meeting.
Meanwhile, Pomeranz is in after throwing 103 pitches in just 4 1/3 innings to the Tampa Bay Rays, who tagged him for five hits and five runs while walking two. He did strike out 10, but falling apart the way he did is a concern.
Look for Bundy to get revenge in this one, as the Orioles take this one.
5* ORIOLES
Chris Jordan
My free play for Friday night is on the Tampa Bay Rays, who have been playing stellar baseball at home, and roll into this weekend series with the Houston Astros on a three-game win streak.
I know the Astros are 4-1 on the road and have won seven of eight overall, but they're going to run into a buzzsaw tonight.
I won't list pitchers, though, as this one is about Tampa Bay's winning ways overall.
The Rays' six-game home win streak is their longest in nearly two years, and marks just the second time in franchise history the Rays haave won at least eight of their first 10 home games.
Houston played yesterday at home against the Angels, and though it won 2-1, I'm not so sure it is ready for this road trip, as it managed just three hits in the victory.
Tampa Bay is hitting .287 at home, which is fifth best in the league. Play the Rays here, as they continue to roll at home.
1* RAYS
DAVE PRICE
Texas Rangers -147
The Texas Rangers have lost 5 of their last 7 coming in. I think ace Cole Hamels gets them on track tonight with a dominant performance against the Kansas City Royals. Hamels sports a 3.50 ERA in 3 starts this season, and he's 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his last 2 starts against KC, both of which came last season. Nate Karns has not fared well against the Rangers, going 1-1 with a 6.32 ERA in 3 lifetime starts. The Royals are hitting just .211 and scoring 2.7 runs per game this season, including .218 and 2.7 runs per game in their 4 games against left-handed starters. Kansas City is 1-11 in road games revenging a one run loss to opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 18-5 in Hamels' last 23 home starts, and 11-1 in his last 12 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
BLACK WIDOW
Los Angeles Clippers -1.5
Bets against underdogs (Utah) off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams with winning percentages from 60% to 75% are 55-17 ATS since 1996. The Clippers have won 19 of their last 22 meetings with the Jazz.
DOC'S SPORTS
Rockets vs. Thunder
Play: Over 223½
The Thunder got their offense back on track in Game 2 and scored 111 in a losing effort and this team should play even better at home in Game 3. We just don’t see any way the Thunder can stop the Rockets offense and they are averaging 116.5 so far in this series and we think they are good for around that amount tonight. And, like the oddsmakers, we think that this will be a close game and it should go down to the final minute. And fouls could come into play if it’s close to the total at the end of the game to push this one over, but we don’t think that will be needed as this one screams OVER to us. Three of the last four meetings have gone over the posted number and Game 1 didn’t only because the Thunder had a real bad night on offense but at home we expect things to go much better for them and this one could hit 230+ easy.
TEDDY DAVIS
Mariners +113
I don't believe that Manaea is actually better than Iwakuma. The A's did take game 1 and have won 3 straight, but Manaea in three starts has an ERA of 5.51 and a 4.76 ERA against the Mariners for his career.
Iwakuma has done his best work on the road this season with a 2.25 ERA. Those game were at Anglers and Astros two teams that are hitting the ball well. He should have no problem with the A's has he does have a career 9-4 record against them
ANDREW GOLD
Yankees vs. Pirates
Play: Yankees -110
The Yankees are one of the hottest teams in baseball if not the hottest right now. They have won 9 of their last 10 right now and are send CC to the mound who has been very surprising himself to say the least. He has a 1.47 ERA in 3 games.
His counter part Glasnow has been getting teed off on this year in two games. He has an ERA of 12.14 right now.
CC is also 4-0 against the Pirates for his career!
MIKE ANTHONY
Los Angeles vs. Utah
Play: Utah +1.5
Utah has stopped teams from scoring 100 pts for 5 of their last 8 games - which is pretty impressive - looking at the teams they have played. Utah has played well vs the Clips and showed why they won 51 games during the season. Utah's Joe Johnson has been unstoppable when coming of his dribble - and LA won't be able to stop that from happening...yet again. Even though the Clippers plundered along for 95 pts vs the Jazz in their opener - don't be lulled to sleep. LA needs to try and regroup - and get their guys back on track, it's a long haul, vs Utah it isn't getting easier. The Clippers played well enough, but got slow footed at the end of the game, which is not a good start in Game 1 - it gets loose here.
Bruce Marshall
Kansas City at Texas
Pick: Kansas City
Kansas City was shackled by Texas starter Andrew Cashner and the Rangers bullpen last night. But will take our chances with the Royals once more and starter Nate Karns, who has been a pleasant surprise, allowing just 2 runs over 11 2/3 IP in his last two starts. Note that Texas has lost all three starts made by Cole Hamels.
Harry Bondi
UTAH +1.5 over LA Clippers
Utah matches up really well with the Clippers which is why they covered both games in LA. We see no reason that they won’t get the money again tonight. Sure it’s a crucial game for the Clippers to regain home court advantage, but the Jazz have dominated the Clippers where it counts, at the pay window covering 19 of their last 26 games. Utah gets the money again tonight!