Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Friday, April 22

Sleepyj

Celtics-145

I'll take a shot here with the C's in a do or die game..Celtics lose this game it's a pure fade in Game 4...Boston has what it takes to get the job done here at however...The big injury to Bradley is rather brutal and his departure from the starting lineup will hurt Boston..Still, Millsap doesn't look right and Atlanta will struggle in a crazed Boston Garden tonight...Horford is a little banged up for the Hawks, but he will be just fine to give a all out effort..Match up wise I favor Boston here and Boston should play lights out and grab a win..I'm just not sure I want to lay over 2 pts here..ML it is.

Spurs-11.5

The sooner the better for the Spurs...Looks like the Spurs will be happy to sweep this series and get a extra days rest down the road perhaps..San Antonio will come to play lock down defense all game..I'd be rather surprised to see them falter even a little bit here on the road..Spurs take care of the basketball in this one and play lock down defense all game...I don't see what Memphis has to offer here in this series with bench players needing to step up big time..Spurs for me.

Pistons +170

I see them getting 1 game maybe...If they do get 1 game...It's this one and the only one...I'll take a shot and grab +170...Cavs haven't been razor sharp IMO

Rob Vinciletti

Mariners vs. Angels
Play: Angels +110

The Angles fit an 80% dog system from the database that plays on home dogs off a 1 run road win and scored 4 or les runs vs a road team like Seattle of a road win and scored 5 or more runs. LA is 8-0 at home off a road game and 5-2 vs division opponents. Seattle is 3-6 vs the division. Nick Tropeano is 2-0 vs Seattle and has a 0.84 era this year eve lower than that of Felix Hernandez going for Seattle. Hernandez for all his success is just 7-13 here in LA. We will back the live dog and play on the LA Angels.

Marc Lawrence

Mariners vs. Angels
Play: Angels +115

Edges - Angels: Nick Tropeano -1 with 1.35 ERA last five overall starts; and 0-84 ERA this season. Mariners: Felix Hernandez 5-11 last 16 team starts here. with Hernandez off a phone ‘inside-out’ win in which he allowed 5 hits and 6 walks in a 5-inning win at the New York yankees in his last start on Saturday, look for the M’s to fall to 1-8 in there las nine games in this park here tonight. We recommend a 1* play on the L.A. Angels.

Jim Feist

Cardinals at Padres
Pick: Under

St. Louis is strong defensively in the field and with relief pitching. Veteran Adam Wainwright is on the mound and knows how to throw strikes, with the under 9-4 when he faces the National League West. This is a big park, great for pitchers, and San Diego is No. 22 in baseball in on base percentage. Andrew Cashner is on the mound, off a pair of strong games. Cashner allowed one run on four hits and two walks while striking out five over six innings, but received no decision Saturday against the Diamondbacks. The Under is 15-6-1 in Cashner's last 22 starts with 5 days of rest.

Indian Cowboy

Boston / Atlanta Under 200.5

Boston according to the metrics and our models plays considerably better defense at home and in particular with motivation in hand (meaning, when they come off a loss or their backs against the wall). This is a Boston team that played to the Under on November 13, 2015 when they hooked up against Atlanta and won 106-93. Then, to the Under on February 11 of 2015 when they beat Atlanta 89-88. Note, that Atlanta is also better on defense on the road as well as their most recent contests of 203 points at Cleveland, 202 at Toronto, 202 at Chicago and 207 at Detroit speaks to this. Hence, with Boston being motivated to the Under and the metrics showing Boston's defense much stronger to the Under at home when they play above-.500 teams and Atlanta to the Under on the road as well, our comp selection on Friday is on the Under upon the line release as we have the game in the mid-190's.

Jason Sharpe

Detroit (+4.5) over Cleveland

The Cleveland Cavaliers have some issues that most aren't talking about right now, but the bottom line is this team doesn't look like it's a #1 seed with NBA title hopes. The Cavaliers had their hands full in Game 1 against Detroit, trailing for a lot of that contest before coming through late to grab the win. The Pistons beat the Cavs in two of the three meaningful head-to-head battles these teams played during the regular season. Detroit gives Cleveland a ton of match-up problems in this series and that's huge when handicapping the NBA playoffs. The Pistons are a young and inexperienced team with nothing to lose and are looking for some positives to come out of what is the first playoff series ever for most of these Detroit players. Realistically they all know they won't win this series over LeBron and company but a strong showing in it would make everyone inside this organization a lot more excited about the future of this team. That means they need to get a win here in Game 3 at home. Look for the Pistons to bring maximum intensity to this contest and play this game like it's Game 7 of the NBA Finals. Take Detroit plus the points here.

Larry Ness

Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto has won SIX straight at home in its series with Oakland (starters own a 2.20 ERA in that span)...

The Oakland A’s are MLB’s lone unbeaten team on the road (6-0) in 2016, as they open a three-game series Friday in Toronto against the Blue Jays. Oakland opened a 10-game road trip with a three-game sweep of the New York Yankees and look to not only extend its perfect road record in 2016 but also to make it SIX consecutive overall victories (A’s won at home last Saturday and Sunday). The A’s will send ace Sonny Gray (2-1, 2.33 ERA) to the mound on Friday against Toronto, which dropped the final two contests of its three-game series to Baltimore while registering one-run decisions in each of its last four outings (splitting those four games). Toronto opens a six-game homestand and sends Aaron Sanchez (1-0, 1.35 ERA) to the mound.

Toronto took FIVE of six from Oakland last year with the A’s lone win coming 4-3 in 10 innings on July 22, a game in which Gray gave up two runs in seven innings. The right-handed Gray faces a Toronto team which dominated righties at Rogers Centre last season, going 43-21 while averaging 5.5 RPG. This marks Gray’s first road start of 2016 and he really struggled away from Oakland down the stretch last season. Gray was 0-2 with a 6.64 ERA in his final four road starts of 2015 (A’s lost all four games!).

Sanchez earned his first victory Sunday by limiting Boston to one run in seven innings of a 5-3 road win, after two no-decisions. The Jays lost each of those first two but DON’T blame Sanchez. He owns a 1.35 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and opponents have hit a miniscule .145 against him in three 2016 starts! He has never started against the A’s but pitched two scoreless innings of relief against them in two appearances last year. Toronto starers have dominated Oakland’s lineup lately, as Sanchez looks to make it SEVEN straight starting pitchers to defeat Oakland in Toronto's home streak in this series, as Blue Jays starters have a 2.20 ERA in that run.

Stephen Nover

Phillies vs. Brewers
Play: Phillies +114

The Brewers aren't going to be favored many times when Jimmy Nelson isn't the starter. This is just the second time of the season they are chalk when Nelson isn't slated to start. The first time was Thursday - and Milwaukee lost 8-1 to the Twins at home.

Now Milwaukee is favored again with a pitching matchup of Aaron Nola versus Zach Davies. Nolan has star potential. Davies is a fill-in for injured Matt Garza, who has never been able to get past his control problems.

Nola is coming off his worst big league start, an 8-1 home loss to the Nationals. Before that outing, though, Nola was 6-3 with a 3.53 ERA and an 85-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 15 career starts. The Brewers have never faced Nola, giving him another edge.

Davies made his season debut this past Sunday and was lit up by the Pirates giving up six runs, eight hits and three walks in 2 1/3 innings during a 9-3 road defeat.

Chase Diamond

Mariners vs. Angels
Play: Angels +108

This game features the 7-8 Mariners at the 7-9 Angels. There is no question King Felix is one of the best in Baseball but Nick Tropeano has shut down stuff. He is 1-0 with a 0.84 ERA. We won with the Mariners and Felix last start and we have cashed last two days on them but tonight we will fade them as this is a game the Angels need.

Power Sports

Miami vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco

What in the world has gone wrong with the Giants? They just got swept, at home, in a four-game series by the division rival D'Backs and have lost eight of their last nine games overall. Miami comes to town this weekend, fresh off a win over Washington on Thursday, and I have to think SF takes care of business here.

Considering that the Giants scored only three runs total in their last three games, it's easy to identify why they lost every time. In fact, over the last five games (all losses), they are hitting 3 for 35 with runners in scoring position. So, the offense needs to get it going. Fortunately, tonight they will face Jared Cosart, who has been pretty generous in his first two starts of the year. He's allowed eight runs total - in just 10 1/3 IP - and has been plagued by control issues as he has walked nine batters. The last time he pitched here at AT&T Park, Cosart took a 6-0 loss.

The Giants send Jeff Samardzija to the bump. His first three starts have all been on the road and I'd say he's pitched well every time out. Not once has he allowed more than 3 ER, so while the Giants are just 1-2 in those games, it's not the fault of the starter. One key here is that the Marlins top slugger Giancarlo Stanton is just 3 for 16 lifetime (w/ six strikeouts) vs. Samardzija. The Giants are too good of a team to go on losing like this.

The Real Animal

San Antonio Spurs -11.5

Memphis could easily be the worst playoff team assembled in NBA history. Because of injuries, the Grizzlies are starting a unit consisting of Zach Randolph, Matt Barnes, Chris Andersen, Jordan Farmar, and Vince Carter. Together that group only started 126 total games including 53 by Randolph. The average age of that group is 35! I can guarantee you there has never been an older group of starters in the playoffs. The Spurs, even with the age of Parker and Duncan, average 30.8 years. Randolph is the best of the group but he has been completely shut down by the Spurs. He is averaging just 8.6 points per game at 26.7 percent shooting. Right now a quality night offensively from Memphis is reaching the 80-point plateau. The Spurs’ second-unit might be superior to the starting five of the Grizzlies. So far the reserves of San Antonio have outscored the Memphis starters 50-34. Plus San Antonio is nailing 48.7 percent beyond the arc. Aldridge, Leonard, and Parker all sat out the fourth quarter in game #2 so the Spurs are getting plenty of rest. No choice but to lay the points with the Spurs.

Wunderdog

Minnesota @ Washington
Pick: Under 7.5

Minnesota loses the DH for this interleague series, adding to the woes of an already terrible offense that is #25 in baseball in runs scored. Minnesota is 20-5-2 UNDER the total against a team with a winning record. Twins' righty Kyle Gibson (3.57 ERA) is off a 3-2 win over the Angels, allowing four hits in seven innings. Washington is home from a seven-game road trip, with the offense looking road weary, scoring four total runs the last two games. This is a big park, which great for pitchers. Lefty starter Gio Gonzalez (0.69 ERA) has been throwing great, off a 3-2 loss to the Phillies allowing one run on four hits and two walks while striking out eight over seven innings. Washington is 13-4-1 UNDER the total against a right-handed starter, plus on a 16-5-1 UNDER the total run overall.

Otto Sports

Tampa Bay at New York
Play: Under 8.5

Tampa's Matt Moore has passed every test this season with a 2.95 ERA and stellar 21-to-3 K-to-BB ratio through three starts. He walks into a positive situation tonight pitching against the soft-hitting Yankees in Yankee Stadium. CC Sabathia hasn't been nearly as sharp with a 5.06 ERA through two outings. Sabathia is nothing more than an inning eater at this point but has a decent shot at a quality start tonight pitching at home against a manageable lineup. Thus far both teams have shown some fairly weak splits against lefties. The Rays rank 20th in MLB with a .655 OPS while the Yankees are even worse at 26th with a .611 OPS. New York's offense has been abysmal of late with just 18 runs in its last eight games (1-7). The last two left starters the Yanks faced -- no-names Rich Hill and Eric Surkamp -- surrendered just three earned runs and recorded 13 strikeouts in 11.2 IP. Bettors should also expect to see New York stud relievers Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller as neither pitcher has thrown since Tuesday. We've seen some early money on the over which gives us an opportunity to play under 8.5 at even money.

SPORTS WAGERS

Tampa Bay -½ +125 (5 innings)

5-inning wager. C.C. Sabathia wasn’t as awful as his first half of last year suggests, with all of hit%, strand% and hr/f working against him. Even with post-June velocity and groundball upticks, he wasn’t as good as his second half ERA either. In 11 innings this year, Sabathia has three hotdogs, four hamburgers and a box of popcorn. His year-long strikeout rate plunge is ominous, and the HR’s that he serves up look here to stay. Sabathia has been neither reliable nor profitable for three years. Age, health and weight say that’s unlikely to change.

The Rays are hitting just .219 against southpaws but that is in for a big correction to the good because this is a very decent hitting lineup versus lefties. New York is hitting just .218 against lefties and that number is not in for a correction anytime soon. The Yanks are can’t hit lefties, period and in fact, they’re 0-4 against them this year. Matt Moore is an under the radar lefty that won’t be under the radar much longer. Moore has quietly struck out 21 batters in 18 innings while walking just three. This is a guy with off the charts skills in his career the first time through an order. Moore showed flashes of becoming one of the AL's best starters in 2012 before injuries derailed that. Moore subsequently had Tommy John surgery and returned to pitch just 63 innings last year in which he really struggled in his first six starts. He returned in September and was outstanding. With top-tier raw stuff, consistency is the missing piece for Moore but that’s just about there also. Moore v C.C = pitching mismatch, thus the five-inning wager.

Minnesota (5 innings) +135

5-inning wager. We’ll make this a five-inning wager because Washington’s relief pitching is near the top of the league in both ERA and xERA while the Twins are near the bottom in both. Kyle Gibson is winless in three starts so his stock is low and the Twinkies are just 5-11 so their stock is low too. Still, the Twins have a great hitting lineup that will score runs all year and Kyle Gibson is always capable of throwing a gem, we just don’t know when it’s going to happen.

Gibson has proven he can get groundballs, as he's seventh in groundball rate among qualified starters the last two seasons but to take a step forward, he'll need to strike out more guys. He's got the sixth-worst strikeout rate among qualified pitchers over that same time frame. The good news is that he has the tools to get more strikeouts. His changeup, slider and curveball all deliver above-average strikeout rates. He just chooses to pitch to contact and throw the fastball over 60 percent of the time. The best news, though, is that his approach may slowly be changing. In the second half of last year, he threw more changeups and curves and fewer sinkers and sliders. Last September, he posted a 16 percent strikeout-minus-walk rate, his best monthly production in that category and a number that would have been good for top-25 status last season. Gibson is not quite there yet in terms of putting it all together but he’s close and at prices like this, he’s worth a bet.

Gio Gonzalez finished 2015 with his worst ERA (3.79) and WHIP (1.42) since 2009. What happened? Bad fortune is partially to blame for his struggles, but much like 2014, it was a tale of two halves. The drastic rise in groundballs was noteworthy, but shoddy infield defense behind him, particularly at SS (only one player in MLB made more errors than Ian Desmond in 2015), no doubt contributed to an elevated hit %. In 2015, Gio tended to nibble with his pitches as only 43.5% of his pitches were inside the strike zone (zone%) compared to the league average of 47.8%. That inefficiency ran up pitch counts forcing earlier exits and contributed to his lowest dominant start % since 2009. Gonzalez’s ERA last year was aided by his third favorable hr/f in the past four years. One would assume it will eventually creep back toward league average (11%) or at least his career average (9%). Looking back, 2015 was a bit of a mixed bag for Gonzalez. He was unable to carry the momentum from a strong 2014 second half into 2015, and wound up having another season marked by disparate halves. Look, Gio is good, not great and his 0.69 ERA after two starts has him overpriced here. The Nats defense remains a liability and therefore those grounders have a better chance of being a base hit than they otherwise would. The price and the potential profit on both Gibson and Minnesota dictate this play.

COLORADO (5 innings) +100

5-inning wager. It's amazing how helpful or hurtful the hit% and strand% pendulum can be. While Scott Kazmir’s skills eroded last year, he was saved by a friendly strand rate. Because we can't bet on that happening again, neither can we expect anything near a 3-ERA again. Rising xERA trend combined with last year's big second half skill erosion put even a 4.00 ERA at risk. Kazmir is not a good option to return profits this year and that makes us sellers when he’s wrongly favored on the road in Colorado.

The Rockies planned to break spring training with Jonathan Gray in their rotation but a strained abdominal muscle near the end of camp set him back. After two minor-league rehabilitation starts, he's pain free and ready to go. Much has been written already about the struggles of the Rockies $4.8 million dollar first-round pick from 2013. Despite that, much of his original scouting report still applies: A plus-plus fastball that tops out at 98, a plus slider at 84-89 mph and his greatest strikeout weapon, alongside an above-average changeup that still is a little firm. Gray has near-frontline potential, but shoulder fatigue and shaky fastball command has led to him being much too hittable. Gray initially dominated in his debut season in the low minors, but has struggled since reaching Double-A. All of his component skills dropped since 2014 and have remained fairly static since. Whether Gray was rushed or not remains to be seen, but the tools that prompted him to be selected third overall are still there. He’s improved his fastball command and the shape of his change, and with a short and efficient delivery, everything in the profile says he can still hit his upside. There is risk for sure but Gray tweaked his mechanics after the abdominal injury and the reports are that he feels great, looks great and is throwing strikes. It’s likely to initially be a bumpy ride for Gray but when he’s a pooch with this offense behind him, he’s very much worth a bet.

Miami (5 innings) +147

5-inning wager. Believing he ascended to the best starting pitcher option remaining on the free-agent market after Zack Greinke signed with Arizona, the Giants quickly came to terms with Jeff Samardzija. He’s yet to log a winning record in any of his four years as a starter (35-52 during that span), but had he been a free agent after the 2014 season (2.99 ERA/3.05 xERA, 202 K) he would have already been locked up to a Jon Lester-type deal. But in 2015, Samardzija inexplicably whiffed 1.5 fewer batters every nine innings while giving up the most hits, earned runs, and HR in the AL. That said, he has maintained his 94-mph fastball and his 2015 dips in swing and misses and first-pitch strikes were slight, and the 10% dive in his strand rate (to 63%) helped balloon his ERA/xERA to career-worsts 4.96/4.25. The Giants hitched their wagon to Samardzija’s four-year averages of 205 IP and 190 strikeouts and to the fact that he’s yet to lose one day to the disabled list. The latter is particularly important as the team deals with age, injury, and ineffectiveness beyond Madison Bumgarner. Although 30, Samardzija’s arm is still relatively young after converting from reliever to starter when he was 26. He’ll also be helped with his move to one of the most offense-averse venues in the majors. AT&T Park suppresses LHB HR and RHB HR by a collective 65%. From an early December perspective, the Samardzija-Giants hookup has the feel of a best-case scenario for both but Samardzija just doesn’t win games. He gives up hits in bunches and he also has bad innings. Perhaps it’s between the ears that prevent Samardzija from thriving but we’re not going to ignore that he’s a big risk laying big prices.

Jarred Cosart is a risk too but he’s not the one spotting -155 or thereabouts here. What we like about Cosart is his elite 65% groundball rate in two starts thus far. He’s always had an elite groundball rate so this is not a new found skill. Cosart’s problem is that he doesn’t throw enough strikes. He’s already walked nine batters in 10 frames and gets in trouble because of it. That’s the risk and it makes him unplayable when favored. However, these poor control types with good stuff occasionally throw a gem because they are capable of doing so. Cosart brings mid 90’s heat to the table to go along with that aforementioned heavy groundball lean, thus, he’s not a bad option at all to come up with five good innings.

Texas +140 over CHICAGO

Jose Quintana is a very decent and consistent pitcher that rarely gets blown up. Quintana is almost always good for six decent innings while allowing two, three or four runs. No matter what Quintana does tonight, we can live with it because we’re strictly playing the value here. Texas has the better offense, they’re in better form and they come in here having won five in a row. Furthermore, this is a lefty/lefty matchup that favors the visitor, as the South Side is hitting .218 versus southpaws while the Rangers are hitting .324.

Martin Perez went 3-6 with a 4.46 ERA in 79 innings for Texas last season. He returned from TJS mid-season and while his K-rate and xERA were forgettable, there are two very good reasons for optimism: 1) Post-injury first-pitch strike rate rose to elite ranks. 2) Heavy groundball% lean applied to every pitch, which is rare. This year, Perez has walked 11 while striking out just nine but a correction is forthcoming because of his high first-pitch strike rate. Perez’s swing and miss rate limit his upside right now, but elements of a breakout are aligning here and we’re more than willing to see what happens.