Teddy Covers
St. Louis vs. San Diego
Pick: Over
Petco has historically been the lowest scoring, least hitter friendly park in all of baseball. The outfield walls are deep, the power alleys even deeper and the ball does not carry in the dense warm air by the ocean.
And for the better part of the 21st century, the Padres pitching –both starters and bullpen -- has been consistently better than their lineup, keeping their totals deflated. That’s not the case this year, especially with their bullpen, currently ranked #22 in MLB in ERA, off another dismal showing last night – eight runs allowed in three innings of work. That’s particularly bad news with St Louis coming to town – the Cardinals have the second highest scoring offense in baseball this year while pounding out 38 runs in their first six road games.
The Padres have now gone Over the total in five straight games on this homestand. And there’s ample reason to think that San Diego will be able to put some crooked numbers on the scoreboard tonight as well against Adam Wainwright. Wainwright just hasn’t been the same guy since returning from his torn Achilles last October; morphing from ‘true ace’ into ‘bottom tier hurler’.
The numbers don’t lie. Wainwright’s strikeout rate is at half of his career average, his walk rate is double his career average. His ground ball rate and swinging strike rates are both way down. He’s been hit hard by three light hitting lineups (Pirates, Braves and Reds) in his first three starts. And this quote certainly doesn’t inspire much confidence moving forward either:
"I'm so far from where I can be and where I want to be. It's very, very frustrating. I'm so upset about the way the ball is coming out right now. … Fact of the matter is, I'm struggling right now. There's no other way to put it."
Teddy Davis
Yankees -107
It's worth a look ere to get the Yankees @ home on a short price. The Yankees just got swept @ home by the A's and I look for them to avoid losing 4 in a row @ home. CC is taking the mound and even though his career is about over he hasn't been that bad this year. The Rays are 2-7 in Moore's last 9 starts vs team with a losing record.
Steve Janus
Mariners -110
Play Against - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA ANGELS) - after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less against opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more. This system is 37-12 (76%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.
Jeff Alexander
Dodgers/Rockies Over 11
Coors Field is arguably the biggest hitters park and the ball figures to be flying out of the park tonight with the wind blowing straight out to center. It certainly helps that we have two strong offenses going at it. The Dodgers come in averaging 5.0 runs/game on the road and the Rockets are scoring 6.3 runs/game at home. Colorado figures to score their fair share against Dodgers starter Scott Kazmir, who has allowed 10 runs on 14 hits and 5 walks in his last 2 starts. LA should also put up a big number against Jon Gray, who will be making his first start of 2016. Gray made 9 starts after a August call up last year and struggled adjusting to Coors Field, as he posted a 8.27 ERA in 5 home starts with opponents hitting .391 against him.
Jack Jones
Chicago Cubs -1.5 -115
The Chicago Cubs are the best team in baseball this season, period. They lead the league in run differential by a landslide, and last night's 16-0 win over the Reds certainly helped it. I expect another blowout victory in Game 2 here tonight.
Jon Lester is going to be inspired by Jake Arrieta, who threw a no-hitter last night. Look for Lester to pick up right where Arrieta left off and to continue his solid start to 2016. He'll be opposed by Jon Mascot, who will be making his his 5th career major league start.
Lester is 1-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.836 WHIP through three starts this season. He is 1-0 with a 3.82 ERA and 0.939 WHIP in five career starts against Cincinnati, and his teams are a perfect 5-0 in those five games.
The Cubs are 26-7 as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last two seasons, winning these teams by an average of 3.0 runs per game. The Reds are 2-16 as home dogs of +125 or more over the last two years, losing these games by 3.1 runs per game.
Brandon Lee
Blue Jays -131
I'll gladly back the Blue Jays as a small home favorite Friday night against the A's. Toronto is going to come out highly motivated after a couple of 1-run losses to close out their 3-game series against the Orioles. Toronto will be returning home after a 7-game road trip and will have the red-hot Aaron Sanchez on the mound. In 3 starts this season, Sanchez has posted a 1.35 ERA and 0.850 WHIP. Oakland counters with their ace Sonny Gray, who will be making his first road start of the season. Gray posted a 6.64 ERA over his final 4 road starts of 2015 and will be making his first start at Toronto since 2013. Gray held the Royals to just 1 earned run on 7 hits in a 5-3 win at home in his last start, but the A's are just 4-12 in his last 16 starts after he allowed 1 or less earned runs in his last outing. A's are also just 19-35 in their last 54 against a starter who is averaging 6.5 or more innings per start.
Jimmy Boyd
Royals -125
Kansas City is showing great value here as a small home favorite in Friday's series opener against the Orioles. The Royals are off to a red-hot 6-2 start at home and 4-1 in they last 5 in game 1 of a series, while Baltimore has dropped 3 of their last 4 on the road and are just 8-20 in their last 28 dating back to last season against a team that's won more than 60% of their games at home.
I also give an edge to the Royals on the mound in this one. Kansas City will send out Chris Young. While he's 0-3 with a 7.90 ERA and 1.975 WHIP over 3 starts, he pitched well in his only start at home, giving up just 2 runs on 3 hits in 5 innings of a 0-2 loss to the Mets. I expect a similarly strong outing in this one, expect this time the Royals will provide him with some run support. Baltimore gives the ball to Yovani Gallardo, who has been lit up for 9 runs on 16 hits and 3 walks in 11 innings over 2 road starts.
Kansas City is 15-5 in their last 20 home games against AL East opponents, 10-3 in their last 13 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 5-1 in Young's last 6 home starts against a team with a winning record.
Mike Lundin
Indians vs. Tigers
Play: Over 8½
The over is 9-5 in the Detroit Tigers' 14 games so far this season and I think we'll see plenty of action over the plate in Friday's matchup against the Cleveland Indians.
The Tribe will send Josh Tomlin (1-0, 1.80 ERA) to the mound. The 31 year-old has made just one start this season as bad weather delayed the start to his 2016 season and he was forced to leave that contest after five innings due cramping in his hamstring. The Tribe's atrocious bullpen (4.95 ERA through 40 innings) might be called in early, and Tomlin is 3-5 with a 6.20 ERA in 10 career games (six starts) versus Detroit.
The Tigers will turn to Justin Verlander (1-1, 7.16) who has had a rough start to the year and gave up seven runs and 10 hits over 4 1/3 frames versus Pittsburgh in his lone home start. He's 18-18 with a 4.43 ERA in 43 career starts versus the Indians and over is 8-3 in Verlander's last 11 home starts vs. Indians.
Ian Kinsler has been swinging a hot bat and has four straight multi-hit efforts and a .365 season batting average. He's 5-for-14 with a pair of extra-base hits in previous meetings with Tomlin and Jarrod Saltalamacchia is 4-for-5 with a double and a homer.
ASA
Tampa Bay Rays -105
Both of these clubs have struggled early this season but there are a couple of key angles to this play. The Rays have started to turn the corner with wins in 4 of their last 5 games and Tampa got the bats going with scoring a dozen runs in yesterday's win! The Yankees have been heading the opposite direction with losses in 7 of their last 8 games. The Yanks are averaging just 2.25 runs per game during this rough eight game stretch and that takes us to the next key point. Things won't get any easier for the Yankees tonight as they face a southpaw. Against lefties this season the Yanks have gone 0-4 and they are hitting just .220 with a .295 slugging percentage against southpaws this season. The Rays are not hitting all that well against lefties but they've gotten big hits (including 6 homers) and Tampa Bay has a .381 slugging percentage against left-handers. This has helped the Rays go 4-1 against lefty starters this season. The Rays Matt Moore gets the start and he has been piling up the strikeouts while compiling a 2.95 ERA so far this season. C.C. Sabathia gets the start for the Yankees and he has spent too much time battling this season with base-runners on. He has a 1.50 WHIP on the season and has allowed 6 earned runs in 10 and 2/3 innings of work over his last two starts. The Rays have the edge on the mound and at the plate based on the lefties taking the mound tonight and they are a bargain at this price in this match-up. We expect the Yankees to fall to 0-5 against lefties this season.
Will Rogers
Spurs vs. Grizzlies
Play: Over 181½
The Spurs did not give the Memphis Grizzlies a chance in either of the first two games at San Antonio as they mauled their opponent by an average margin of 29 points. The Grizzlies haven't gotten anything going offensively against a smothering San Antonio defense, and the result has been two very low scoring games. The bookmakers have adjusted by dropping the total down almost 10 points from where it opened in Game 1. I like the over tonight as I expect the Grizz to play just a little better at home.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - These teams have gone under in two of four meetings in Memphis, however all four games saw more than 181 points scored.
2. The Spurs Shooting From Behind The Arc - The Spurs have hit an amazing 48.7 percent from 3-point range so far in the playoffs. The reserves have shipped in plenty as point guard Patty Mills is 9-for-16 and Kevin Martin 7-for-12.
3. X-Factor - The Grizzlies have played higher scoring games at home than they have on the road, with the over going 20-8-2 in their last 30 home games.
Michael Alexander
Mariners vs. Angels
Play: Mariners -111
Hernandez recorded 13 walks against 20 strikeouts this season - lowering his lifetime ratio to 3.36:1 - after issuing a career high-tying six free passes in a 3-2 victory over the Yankees in New York on Saturday. Hernandez is 14-14 with a 3.30 ERA in 46 starts versus Los Angeles but 6-1, 1.34 in 11 turns over the past two seasons and has little trouble with the slumping Albert Pujols (.208, home run, seven RBIs 13 strikeouts in 53 at-bats).
Dave Price
Hawks/Celtics Under 201.5
The Atlanta Hawks have pretty much shut down the Boston Celtics in the first two games of this series. They held them to 36.3% shooting in Game 1 and 31.8% in Game 2. The Celtics are without two of their key offensive cogs in Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynik, which has made life very difficult for them on that end of the floor. Look for defense to be the story in this one as well, just as it was in Game 2 when these teams combined for 161 points in an 89-72 Hawks win. The UNDER is 8-2 in Hawks last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games. The UNDER is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 18-5 in Celtics last 23 Conference Quarterfinals games. The UNDER is 10-4 in Celtics last 14 games overall.
Bruce Marshall
Houston -1.5 +149
Houston is reeling after being swept by the Rangers, as the Astros now sit at a 2013-like 5-12. But back at Minute Maid Park, expect a turnaround, and Friday starter Collin McHugh has already demonstrated his bounce-back abilities this season, rebounding from an awful opener vs. the Yankees to pitch seven shutout innings vs. the Royals. Now he tries to recover from a poor effort last Saturday vs. Detroit. A plus for the Astros is facing a depleted Red Sox bullpen that was knocked around in Thursday's extra innings, 12-8 loss to the Rays.
GoodFella
Toronto -135
I'm very high on the Jays young SP Aaron Sanchez. We've had success backing him and I am going to back him and his ball club again on Friday Night. I like the fact that the A's have a collective 5 plate appearances vs the young stud. That is a big edge to Sanchez and these Blue Jays for tonight. I fully expect him to limit what this A's offense does & then hand the ball over to the best arms in the Jays bullpen. The A's send out "high profile SP" Sonny Gray. Everyone knows Gray and his abilities. That is part of the reason we're getting a good price on these Jays at HOME behind their ace tonight. Several key Jays have had good success vs Sonny. I do think that Toronto will get to Gray eventually and that Sanchez will out-pitch Gray this evening. Neither bullpen is strong, but I do think that Sanchez really limits what Oakland does tonight. Bottom line for me here, is that I have this game lined 15 cents higher, so there is VALUE on these Jays for me. I am all over the TORONTO BLUE JAYS at this price and in this spot on Friday Night.
Dave Essler
Mariners / Angels Over 7
You should be able to find 7 - if not, buy it if you can, or play it smaller at 7.5 - I'll explain later (I know totals haven't been kind LATELY but over time they have. I like Seattle here, too. I am considering Colorado simply because the Dodgers have not been hitting, but Kazmir hasn't faced Colorado much- perhaps the under which is always inflated at Coors. I'd like to find a way to fade Wainright, but Cashner has sucked this year. I like the Yankees over because Moore is a flyball pitcher, decent breeze, Rays pen has been used up, and a FEW Rays hit CC well. Trepidation is that the NY pen is rested (FWIW) and they haven't been hitting. However, the money seems to be favoring the Yankees at the moment (likely because of the bullpen usage by the Rays) which means they think NY will score. I don't know how CC shuts down anyone that's seen him, or pitches past the 6th inning. Oakland and Gray might be slightly over rated after beating the Yankees. Sanchez is quite the young pitcher, but those "first games back" are always tough to bet on, and Toronto blew another late one last night. Maybe Jays F5 here. I want to take Texas for the simple reason that they are hitting .315 over the last week and the White Sox are hitting about .200 from memory. The downside is the White Sox pen is much better. However, the RL is only about -140.