Kevin Rogers
Phillies vs. Brewers
Play: Phillies +113
The Phillies and Brewers each own 7-9 records, as Philadelphia looked to avenge an 0-7 record against Milwaukee from last season. Aaron Nola takes the mound for the Phillies, allowing 11 ER in his last two starts against the Padres and Nationals. Nola's best start came on the road in his first start at Cincinnati, giving up one earned run and four hits in seven innings of work in a 3-2 loss. Zach Davies counters for the Brewers, as the right-hander was racked in his last start at Pittsburgh by allowing six runs in less than three innings of work in a 9-3 loss. I'll back the Phillies as a short underdog to beat the Brewers.
Bruce Marshall
Minnesota +142
Washington has done a lot of feasting in subpar opposition in the first couple weeks of the season. Able to benefit has been Friday starter Gio Gonzalez, allowing just one run over 13 IP against the Braves and Phillies, though failing to get a decision vs. either. Things get tougher on Friday vs.a Twins team that has now won 5 of 7 and has begun to score some runs, and with Friday starter Kyle Gibson off of his first quality outing of 2016.
THE PREZ
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -105
The Yankees didn't work the free agent market with reckless abandon this winter and while they did solidly their bullpen the past two seasons they currently rest at the bottom of the American League East standings with a 5-9 overall mark this young season. The Yankees sit in the middle of the league rankings in runs per game, batting average, home runs and OPS and this applies to their pedestrian pitching numbers through 14 April games.
The Yankees enter Game #1 as hosts of a three-game set against their division rival Tampa Bay Rays. Two southpaws will take the pill to the Yankee Stadium hill tonight in the Bronx when C.C Sabathia squares off against Matt Moore.
CC Sabathia has been everything but efficient so far this season. The left-hander allowed three runs on seven hits in 4 2/3 innings of work in a loss to Seattle. Moore has allowed just three walks and struck out 21 batters in his first three starts.
Rays
Tampa's offense has been anemic for the most part in the first three weeks of April. The Rays rank in the bottom 20 percent of the league in runs scored per games, but have shown their strong will and baseball IQ this past week winning four of their last five. Tampa exploded for double-digit runs in their last affair, a 12-8 victory over Boston on Thursday afternoon, that saw All-Star Evan Longoria go deep. and has six hits, four RBIs and four runs scored in
Longoria leads the recent offensive surge by the Rays and has always had success in his career against New York. The third baseman is 24-for-64 (.375) with six homers in his career versus tonight's Yankee left-hander, Sabathia, and hold the distinct honor of having more RBI in new Yankee Stadium than any other visiting player.
Moore struck out 10 without walking a batter in his last start versus the Chicago White Sox on Sunday, working 6 1/3 innings in a 3-2 victory. The 26-year-old has allowed just five hits in each contest this season and six runs total over 18 1/3 innings of work, and the lefty has a 5-2 career mark versus New York, with a 3-1 record at Yankee Stadium.
Yankees
Veteran southpaw and long time starting pitcher C.C Sabathia wasn't sharp in his last trip to the mound, his 200th start as a Yankee, lasting just 4 2/3 innings in a loss against the Mariners. The southpaw was hit hard in the fifth inning allowing three runs. Surprisingly, Sabathia has had just average success against the Rays in his career. In 38 starts Sabathia has a 13-14 record with a 3.73 ERA.
Sabathia's not the pitcher he once was. His base on balls to strikeout ratio is mediocre and his FIP is two points higher than his porous ERA nearly two runs higher than his ERA of 5.06. The Yankee's left-hander has been on a steady decline the last two seasons and that figures to continue this season. and that includes tonight, versus the Rays.
The Yankees rest at the bottom of the East standings and the offense has produced just 18 runs during the teams seven losses in eight games played. Veteran Mark Teixeira is in a 1-for-18 slump over the last six tilts and catcher Brian McCann is also 1-for-18 in his last six games behind the plate.
Harry Bondi
HOUSTON -145 over Boston
As bad as the Astros have started, they should have no problem with a Red Sox squad whose starting pitching and clutch hitting have been sporadic at best and whose manager continues to cost them games with his misuse of the bullpen! Knuckleballer Stephen Wright takes the hill for the Bo Sox and he couldn't get out of the first inning in his only appearance against the Astros. Houston counters with Colin McHugh who is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA over the past two seasons against the Red Sox. Boston was swept in a three-game series in Houston last season, and we would not be surprised if it happened again this weekend. 'Stros!
Vegas Butcher
Tampa Bay Rays (1st 5 Innings) -120
Sabathia is barely getting clocked at 87 MPH with his fastball, so no wonder he’s relying much more on his cutter to start out the year. Tampa hits the pitch pretty well and I think they’ll have success against him here. Moore has looked fantastic so far against some pretty strong lineups, and I like his matchup against a Yankee team that doesn’t hit lefties very well (26th in the league so far). Huge starting pitching discrepancy in Tampa favor in this one, though NY has an edge in the BP, especially with fatigue potentially an issue for Tampa’s relievers.
Philadelphia Phillies (1st 5 Innings) +110
Nola’s 5.7 ERA does NOT justify his performance so far: 30% K-rate; only a 4% BB-rate; 2.5 SIERA. He’s allowed some HR’s so far and his 51% strand-rate is very unrealistic, so bad-luck has played a factor. He’ll face a weak Milwaukee offense (bottom 10) so should have success. Besides, he’s going up against Davies, who was an absolute disaster in his first start: 8 hits and 3 BB’s in 2.1 innings of work. I don’t think this kid is ready for the big leagues, and even a horrid lineup like the Phils should score a few off him. Can’t back Philly BP so taking this one for first 5 as well.
Baltimore Orioles +120
Neither Gallardo nor Young have pitched well this year, but the difference in this one could very well be the offenses. Baltimore ranks 1st overall against righties. They have a ton of power in the lineup and will face a pitcher who has given up a HR in each of his starts. Royals, on the other hand, rank 22nd offensively against righties, and as poorly as Gallardo has pitched, he hasn’t allowed a HR yet. Gallardo’s FIP of 3.1 is significantly lower than Young’s 6.0, and as long as he keeps the ball in the yard I like Baltimore’s chances here.
Colorado Rockies +120
Kazmir’s xFIP of 4.1 was a full run higher than his ERA of 3.1 last year. Clearly he didn’t pitch as well as his numbers indicated last year. Well, he’s pitching closer to his ability level right now. His fastball lost a little bit of juice on it and his cutter hasn’t been effective yet. Rockies crush left-handed pitchers (4th in ISO), and they’re a top-5 team against the cutter so far this year. I think the offense could have a strong showing here. Jon Gray is a wildcard of course, but this is a young prospect with a lot of potential. I’ll back him at home at plus odds here.
San Diego Padres +123
Take away the ‘names’ on the listed starters and catching San Diego at these odds is a steal. Of course Wainwright’s name still commands a price hike though he hasn’t been the same to start out the year. His 12% BB-rate is higher than his measly 9% K-rate, and his 6.0 SIERA is one of the worst in the league. Cashner is actually pitching well, sporting a strong 23% K-rate and a 3.7 SIERA. He’s been a much more effective pitcher at home than on the road, sporting a 2.9 ERA and 3.1 FIP there. I’ll grab him at these odds tonight.