Free Picks for Friday, April 28th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
NASHVILLE AT ST LOUIS
PLAY: NASHVILLE +105
Nashville has a leg up in this series after winning the opener by a 4-3 margin. The Blues fought back to tie the game after trailing 3-1, but the Predators got the fairly late game winner and now lead the series 1-0.
If you watched that game, chances are you’ve arrived at the same conclusion I have. Simply stated, the Predators have too much team speed for the Blues, particularly in transition. Nashville really dominated the first two periods the other night, and had they not lightened up on the pedal to the metal mode of play in the third period, I have my doubts that the Blues would have been able to catch up.
Prior to the start of this series I stated that I thought Nashville had legitimately been the better team in the series with Chicago. At the same time, I expressed the opinion that goalie Jake Allen was the only reason the Blues got past Minnesota.
The bad news for the Blues is that Allen might have cooled off a bit to start this series. He had his share of great saves in the opener, but Allen also let a couple get by that he probably should have stopped. I think Allen will have to turn into Mr. Zero again this evening, or the Blues are in trouble.
Nashville is now 5-0 in the playoffs and that team speed advantage that was on display in this series opener should play a role gain tonight. I’ll side with the red hot Predators to maintain their sizzling streak with another win tonight.
Rocketman
Oakland @ Houston
Play: Houston -148
The Oakland A's travel to Houston to take on the Astros on Friday night. Oakland is 10-11 SU overall this year while Houston comes in with a 14-7 SU overall record on the season. Charlie Morton is 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his two starts at home this year. Jharel Cotton has had some control issues so far this year as in his last 3 starts he has 11 strikeouts compared to 9 walks. Oakland is scoring only 3.6 runs per game on the road this year and 3.6 runs per game against right handed starters this season. Houston is allowing only 3.7 runs per game overall this year, 2.8 runs per game at home this season, 3.4 runs per game their past 7 games overall and 3 runs per game against division opponents. Houston is 11-2 this year against right handed starters. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight!
Scott Rickenbach
Oilers vs. Ducks
Play: Under 5
After a wild Game 1 that resulted in a 5-3 upset win for the Oilers on the road, look for things to "settle down" in Game 2. The under is 14-7 this season when Edmonton is off of a game where they scored 4 goals or more. Also, the under is 7-1 in Oilers Friday night games this season. When entering a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more this season, Edmonton has had just 4 overs in 15 games! The Oilers have been hot and once again I look for defense to now come to the forefront in this one as the Ducks are fired up after allowing 5 goals on home ice. The last 13 times Anaheim has allowed 4 goals or more in a game they've certainly responded on defense with only 22 goals allowed 13 games - an average of 1.69 goals a game! The Oilers, before Wednesday's crazy opener, had allowed 2 goals or less in 10 of their last 14 games. Don't be surprised if this one ends up being a 2-1 or 3-1 type game as neither team was happy with all the goals allowed in Game One. Play 'settles in' to more typical playoff hockey in Game 2 Friday and I recommend grabbing the plus money available on the under with this one!
John Martin
Wizards vs. Hawks
Play: Under 210
The Hawks and Wizards have combined for 210, 214, 212 and 202 points in their last four meetings, respectively. I think as these teams have gotten more familiar with each other, points have been harder and harder to come by. I expect a similar result to the Game 5 showdown that was Washington win 103-99 for 202 combined points. The Wizards made a concentrated effort to improve their defense and it worked last game, and they should carry over that effort on the road here. The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Hawks last 10 games when playing on one days' rest. The UNDER is 37-16-2 in Hawks last 55 games following a straight up loss. The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Hawks last 26 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Scott Spreitzer
Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -121
Baltimore's offense has struggled so far overall and especially against left-handers as the Orioles are batting just .229 against southpaws with a .634 OPS, which is 25th in the major leagues. CC Sabathia has had a week off following his first loss of the year at Pittsburgh, which came after three excellent starts to begin the season. Kevin Gausman pitched well against the Yankees in 2016, but the right-hander has been nothing short of terrible his last two starts when he gave up 13 runs and 16 hits in eight innings against the Red Sox and Reds. Also, Gausman allowed four runs and eight hits in 4 2/3 innings versus the Yanks on April 8 although the Orioles pulled out a 5-4 win. Baltimore has lost 23 of Gausman's last 32 road starts and New York has won 35 of its last 51 home games dating to last season.
Marc Lawrence
Minnesota at Kansas City
Play: Kansas City -133
Edges - Royals: Kennedy 6-2 career team starts versus Minnesota, including 4-1 at home; and 2.08 ERA with 1.04 WHIP this season… Twins: Gibson 9.00 ERA with 1.88 WHIP this season. With the Twins just 1-9 in their last 10 games in this park, we recommend a 1* play on Kansas City.
Sean Murphy
Predators vs. Blues
Play: Blues -114
The Preds stunned the Blues in the opener of this series on Wednesday, controlling play but ultimately needing a late goal to break a 3-3 tie and secure the victory. I look for St. Louis to respond in Game 2 on Friday night.
Nashville remains undefeated in these playoffs, but will be hard-pressed to deliver a fourth straight road win here. Note that the Preds are just 20-20-4 on the road this season while the Blues check in 25-14-5 on home ice. St. Louis can ill afford to dig an 0-2 series hole before heading to Nashville, where the Preds have gone 26-9-8 this season.
Make no mistake, losing rookie Kevin Fiala to what looked like a season-ending injury on Wednesday night strikes a major blow to the Preds. He's been a key contributor this season and was enjoying a tremendous playoff run.
The Blues battled back hard in the opener of this series and nearly completed the comeback in the third period. Look for them to even the series at a game apiece on Friday night.
Jack Jones
Celtics / Bulls Under 204
The Boston Celtics have really shut down the Bulls' offense over the past three games. They have held them to 87, 95 and 97 points, respectively. The biggest reason for that is the fact that Rajon Rondo has missed all three games due to injury, and he's not expected to return for Game 6.
The Bulls' offense has gone stagnant without him as Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler have had to take on the PG role. This has led to a lot of stalled possessions and one-on-one basketball, which is perfect for UNDERS. I think the Bulls will have a big effort defensively here in Game 6 with their season on the line.
Boston is 9-1 UNDER in Friday road games over the last two seasons. Chicago is 8-1 UNDER off three or more consecutive losses this season. The UNDER is 11-3-2 in Celtics last 16 road games. The UNDER is 10-1 in Bulls last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Chicago.
Art Aronson
Clippers vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz -5½
The Clippers lost Blake Griffin to injury and predictably, LA has struggled. With a chance to deliver the knock out blow, it’s hard to imagine the league’s No. 1 defense falling apart tonight. The trends support the Jazz as well, as note that the Clippers are a poor 8-9 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite, while Utah is 4-2 ATS this season off an upset win as an underdog. Chris Paul is an amazing player, but without Griffin, all signs point another early exit for the Clippers this year. Consider laying the points on UTAH tonight.
Chase Diamond
Celtics vs. Bulls
Play: Bulls +2½
Normally I would never give this strong of a play out for free but NBA has not been my strongest sport but the playoffs is when I shine. I have reached out to both of my Vegas contacts both say Bulls large tonight. Bulls won the first two in this series but when Rondo went down this series was over. I think the Bulls show up in front of their home crowd and throw everything they have at Boston. This game has trap written all over it as masses are betting the road Celtics at this point 84% are betting the Celtics but not me I'll follow my sharp contacts and bet the Bulls.
Mike Anthony
Rays vs. Blue Jays
Play: Rays +135
Blake Snell is an extremely talented hurler and that results in fewer homers and a terrible opponent batting avg. And his WHIP has been very good so far. The Rays offense has been a very strong factor, with being ranked 1st in the American League as of the 4.25.2017 period. And here it will be, yet again. It looks like Kendrys Morales is set to deliver a slow campaign for the Jays - off the mold of last years decent .263 hitting -- middling batting average with minimal power. Toronto can't give up too many errors, of course Darwin Barney and his slipping fielding skills will be nervous playing a quick hitting Tampa Bay - matched up vs the Rays is never an easy game for anyone in the field. Tampa Bay has a quick outfield with a good pitcher in the dome and as a nice underdog here on Friday night.
Frank Jordan
Boston vs. Chicago
Play: Chicago +2.5
Boston lost the first two games, but they were distracted. Rando was also a big key as he played in only the first two games which Chicago won while Boston has won the next three games . Rondo scored 23 points and had 20 assists. Thomas didn't have the biggest game in game three scoring just 16 points, but had nine assists and picked it up scoring 57 points total in games four and five as he didn't have Rondo on him as Rondo is someone who is quick enough to keep pace with Thomas. Rondo won't play in game six, but Chicago will get to what got them wins in the first two games as Butler, Wade and Lopez all have big games as the Bulls force a game seven back in Boston.
Rob Vinciletti
Washington vs. Atlanta
Play: Washington +3
The Wizards are up 3-2 in the series and teams up 3-2 in game 6 have won outright 7 of the 10 times in round 1 if the home team has won the previous 5 games. The Hawks have failed to cover 7 of 9 at home off a road spread win. Look for the Wizards to get the cover.
Brandon Shively
Boston vs. Chicago
Play: Under 204
The Bulls offense doesn't run nearly as smooth without Rondo on the floor. The tempo slows down and the ball gets stuck. We end up seeing a lot of one on one action, and the Celtics can defend that much easier.
Boston hasn't been shooting the ball well, and the Bulls defense has been underrated for much of the year. The Bulls should show some fight here and put in a good defensive effort.
Expect a hard fought game that stays under the total in this one.