Big Al
Clippers vs, Jazz
Play: Clippers
Utah upset Los Angeles in Game 5 to take a 3-2 series lead. But teams off an upset loss in Game 5 are an awesome 60% ATS the past 27 years in Game 6.
Jim Feist
Edmonton at Anaheim
Pick: Edmonton
The Oilers are 21-7 playing on 1 days rest, 22-8 in their last 30 vs. the Western Conference after stealing Game 1. They are balanced, Top 10 in goals scored and allowed. Defenseman Adam Larsson scored his second goal of the third period with 4:40 to play, and the Oilers blew a two-goal lead before beating the Ducks 5-3 on Wednesday night. Mark Letestu scored two power-play goals and Cam Talbot made 33 saves.
Stephen Nover
Minnesota at Kansas City
Play: Kansas City -125
How much do I want to fade Kyle Gibson? Enough to lay a price with the Royals, who are coming off an 0-7 road trip and are the lowest-scoring team in the majors.
Gibson is in the argument for worst starting pitcher in the majors. He was brutal last season going 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA and he has the second-highest ERA (9.00) of starting pitchers who have thrown at least 17 innings this year. The 0-3 Gibson couldn't reach the fourth inning against the Tigers in his last start this past Sunday giving up seven runs before departing. He's surrendered 17 runs in 17 innings.
The Twins have been patient with Gibson because he was their first-round pick in 2009. They had high hopes for him. But he is who he is. He's 32-41 lifetime with a 4.72 ERA and getting worse not better as the league is familiar with him.
Gibson is a sinkerball pitcher. But he hasn't been getting ground ball outs the past two seasons. His fly ball rate of 30.2 percent this season would be a career-high. Opponents are batting an insane .467 with an on-base plus slugging percentage of 1.343 when facing Gibson the second time through the order. Gibson's stuff is totally ineffective.
Going against Gibson is the biggest reason why I'm involved in this game. There are other factors, though. The Royals are a good home team. That's held up this season where they have a winning record. The Twins are a bad road club losers of 22 of their past 32 away contests.
Royals starter Ian Kennedy is off to an excellent start even if his record is 0-2. He has a 2.08 ERA. Kennedy made five starts against the Twins last season and went 3-0 with a 2.86 ERA. Kansas City is 5-1 the past six times Kennedy has faced Minnesota.
The Royals need to turn things around now at home to regain the faith of their fans. This is a team, remember, that won the World Series just two years ago and remains strong defensively. The Royals really want payback, too, after the Twins swept them in Minnesota to begin the season with two of those three defeats coming in blowout fashion.
The Royals dominated the Twins last season winning 15 of 19, including going 9-1 at Kauffman Stadium.
Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon and Alcides Escobar are all too good of players to be batting .220 or less. The Royals are due to bust out - and they couldn't fnd an easier pitcher to do it against. The price is low enough to get involved.
Power Sports
Phillies vs, Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers
Looking over only recent results, one might (falsely) conclude that the Dodgers seem overvalued on the money line here. But, given preseason projections for both clubs, the price seems about right to me. Sure, the Phillies have won six straight. But they're not a team I expect to do a whole lot of winning in 2017. It should also be pointed out that the last five wins all came at home, against either Atlanta or Miami. Meanwhile, the Dodgers may still be a game below .500 (did win yday), but their overall run differential of +15 indicates better play than that.
If starter Kenta Maeda can get his act together, then LA will be in a real good shape for tonight's series opener. Maeda did not fare well his last time out, giving up four home runs, but that was in the bandbox known as Chase Field down in Arizona. The Phillies lineup is far less formidable. Believe it or not, but the Dodgers have allowed the fewest number of runs in the entire Senior Circuit. Their bullpen has been a lot better at home and the Phils are batting a collective .223 on the road so far. Maeda has beaten Philly both times he has faced them in his career.
The visitors counter w/ Jerad Eickhoff, who has pitched surprisingly well to this point. Dodger Stadium is known for being pitcher friendly and I don't expect a ton of runs tonight, but it will be Eickhoff giving up the majority of them. Similar to last year, visiting teams simply aren't scoring much here in Chavez Ravine. They are averaging just 2.8 rpg w/ a batting average of .204. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are averaging 5.2 rpg here at home.
Larry Ness
Pittsburgh vs. Miami
Pick: Miami
The Pittsburgh Pirates are are hoping Wednesday's 6-5 win over the Cubs (Pirates had 10 hits) is what the team needed to get its bats untracked. The Pirates are last in the NL (29th of 30 MLB teams, overall) in runs scored with 71 (3.38 per). Pittsburgh opens a three-game series tonight in Miami against the 10-10 Marlins, looking to post back-to-back wins. The Marlins were swept in a rain-shortened two-game series at Philadelphia to finish a 3-5 road trip but the much bigger news this week is that a group fronted by future Hall of Famer Derek Jeter and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are in line to buy the franchise.
The pitching matchup will feature Pittsburgh Jameson Taillon (1-0, 2.13 ERA) and Miami's Adam Conley (1-1, 3.00 ERA). Taillon gave up just two ERs in 20 innings over his first three starts (team was just 1-2 despite his 0.90 ERA in that span) but was then reached for four runs in 5.1 innings against the New York Yankees last Saturday. The former No. 2 overall draft pick issued three walks and yielded five hits to the Yankees but did not factor in the decision. This marks Taillon's first career appearance against Miami.
Conley has yet to allow more than three runs in an appearance this season and is coming off a strong start at San Diego last Friday in which he allowed one run in a season high-matching six innings (settled for a no-decision). Conley made his first three appearances of the season - two starts - against the New York Mets and allowed a total of five runs in 12 innings. Conley struck out nine and scattered two hits over six scoreless innings in his lone previous start against the Pirates.
The Pirates rank last statistically in team defense. The team is tied for the most errors (20) and has allowed the most unearned runs (15) in the NL. In sharp contrast, Miami's .992 fielding percentage, .738 defensive efficiency rating and six errors top the NL's defensive stats chart. Making life even more difficult for Pittsburgh manager Clint Hurdle is he recently lost All-Star outfielder Starling Marte to an 80-game suspension for a failed drug test. Take Miami in this one.
Buster Sports
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -102
The Miami Marlins are back home off of a long 8 game road trip where they went 3-5. They are not even getting a chance to kiss the wife and hug the kids as they are right back in action today. Usually after a long trip like that the club will get a day off but not in today's MLB. This gives us a great situation tonight and we also believe we have the advantage on the hill. The starters for tonight are for the Pirates RH Jameson Taillon (1-0, 2.13 ERA) and he faces the Marlins LH Adam Conley (1-1, 3.00 ERA) Taillon in his second year is a young gun who has a great career ahead of him. We rode him a few times early last year with great success. In this situation we will be more than happy to ride him again tonight. Conley has pitched well to start the year but that early success has been on the road. At home in a couple of appearances he is sporting a nasty 5.14 ERA. At the time of this writing we are laying only 102 with the Pirates and we will side with the visitor here against the tired home club.
Brian Edwards
Washington at Atlanta
Play: Atlanta -3
Boy, Atlanta has certainly had its chances in the three losses at Washington, leading for decent chunks of all three games. The Hawks dominated both games played at Philips Arena, winning both home contests by double-digit margins. They dropped a 103-99 decision in Game 5 at Washington on Wednesday, costing themselves by making just 14-of-21 attempts at the free-throw line. Atlanta is getting remarkable play out of Dennis Schroder, who had 29 points, two steals and 11 assists compared to only one turnover in Game 5. Schroder and Paul Millsap will lead Atlanta to the win and it'll cover this short number.
SPORTS WAGERS
Nashville +105 over ST. LOUIS
OT included. Do you really want to get in front of a freight train right now? The Preds’ confidence is sky high and so is their level of play while the Blue Notes rode the red-hot Jake Allen through its first-round series upset against the Minnesota Wild where they were outplayed in every facet of the series - except goaltending. Allen looked beatable in Game 1 by allowing four goals.
Before these playoffs began, we suggested that Nashville’s defense was the best in the business but that was before P.K Subban caught fire. With Subban’s offensive breakout in Game 1, Nashville has gotten 14 points through five games from him, Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis. Nashville is in the best situation it has ever experienced in the playoffs because this is the first time in franchise history that they have led a second round series. The Preds’ motto this postseason has been “foot on the gas,” which is exactly how they’re playing right now. They had the Blackhawks by the throat after winning the first two games at the Madhouse and finished them off in Nashville. They now have the inferior Blues in a must win situation and there was nothing that occurred in Game 1 that suggests or reveals that the Blues have an edge anywhere.
Additionally, this is the first time St. Louis is behind in a series in this year’s playoffs. That’s something new they have to deal with. They also have to deal with being the second best team on the ice in six straight playoff games, which is not easy to digest. So, what we have here is a tag on a confident and superior team that has never been hungrier and that sees that path to the Cup Finals getting brighter every single day. The Blues have been lucky in all their wins and luck rarely holds up over time.
Lastly we should not dismiss that Game 1 of this series was after Nashville beat Chicago in four straight, thus causing a lengthy layoff between games. TYhat is not the case here and with agame under their belt after the lengthy layoff, the Preds figure to be even better here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh +101 over MIAMI
Adam Conley (LHP) is four games (three starts) in this season and it is much of the same “meh” as last season. His fastball tops off at 90 MPH and his swing and miss rate is in the average range. In 18 innings, Conley has a BB/K split of 7/14 but his first-pitch strike rate of just 54% says more walks are coming. Conley pitched little after middle-finger tendinitis in August of last year. He's lost his former groundball tilt, which is an indication that he’s getting the ball up and not down. His swing and miss rate says his strikeout rate will regress too. Finally, Conley’s 4.54 xERA confirms that he’s too risky. This is an average starter on his best day.
Jameson Taillon (RHP) is anything but average. After missing two full years following Tommy John surgery, Taillon burst onto the scene in 2016, recording a 3.38 ERA in 18 big league starts and is now close to taking his rightful spot as one of the best young arms in the game. Taillon showed no signs of rust last year following his lengthy absence. He kept the walks to a minimum and while he’s walked 10 batters in 25 frames this year, his first-pitch strike rate of 68% says his walks per nine are coming way down. Taillon has excellent pedigree with an outstanding 55% groundball rate. He profiles as an extremely polished pitcher already, and should be able to provide us with profits all season long. We'll gladly put that to the test here in this favorable matchup.
N.Y. Mets +155 over WASHINGTON
The Nationals are coming off four games in Colorado, where they scored 46 runs. After losing the opener of that series, 8-4, Washington would win the next three while scoring 15, 11 and 16 runs respectively. Combine that outburst with their recent pedigree and throw Max Scherzer (RHP) into the mix and you have a seriously inflated price here.
Someday all the innings pitched may catch up to Scherzer but there are no signs yet. His control and first-pitch strike rate have fallen back in line with his career norms after four starts this year but that’s nitpicking. His 33 K’s in 28 frames is one clear sign that he's still a stud at the top of his game. However, his always high fly-ball rate will always leave him susceptible to bad hr/f turns and that’s the risk here. One two-run shot and we can get to the cashier’s window. Scherzer’s ERA is 3.38 and if he gives up two or three here, we’ll be more than happy to roll the dice with Jacob deGrom. Aside from that, spending four long days in Colorado with four hour games is not easy to rebound immediately from. The Nats may be fatigued here and deGrom is precisely the type of pitcher that can make any lineup look silly.
Give us deGrom at this price and we’ll bite every single time. Last year, he couldn't quite match his amazing 2015 campaign, but this remains an elite skill set. deGrom underwent September surgery to reposition an ulnar nerve in his right arm and now looks better than ever. His 2nd half fade last year was due mostly to his final three outings (16 ER in 14.2 IP) so pay no attention.
Jacob deGrom struck out 10 batters in his fourth start of the 2017 season. He also walked six and gave up three earned runs on eight hits. The statline alone might tell you it was his weirdest game of the year, and maybe his worst. Before that, in his third start, he went seven innings and struck out 13. He allowed back-to-back dingers early and then took control of the game, allowing only three more baserunners the entire night. His pitches were humming like a barbershop quartet. Frankly, his pitches have been humming all season but it’s more than that. Check out deGrom’s pitch mix this year:
Four seamer 42%
Slider 18.8%
Change 16.7%
Curve 15.6%
Two-seamer 6.3%
deGrom will throw any of these five pitches at any time with any count. The batter has no idea what’s coming and that’s why he’s capable of throwing a gem every time he steps on the mound. Indeed the Nationals are scary and they’re good but prices like this should never be ignored when the starting pitcher is as good as our guy is.
SAN FRANCISCO -1½ +136 over San Diego
Luis Perdomo (RHP) is talented but he’s also as raw as sushi salmon. Prior to 2016, Perdomo never had appeared above Single-A, so it’s no surprise that the Rule 5 draftee had his share of struggles in the majors. Despite a 9.10 ERA through 29.2 innings as a reliever, Perdomo was moved to the starting rotation in June and finished the year with a 5.71 ERA in 147 innings. While he has great potential, he should be honing his skills in the minors as opposed to learning at this level. He has a heavy reliance on just two pitches and two-pitch pitchers in this league can rarely succeed as a starter. Two-pitch pitchers are usually relievers and relievers are former starters that could not cut it as one. Perdomo throws his sinker or curve 91% of the time because his fastball gets whacked. He’s still a work in progress that needs more seasoning and will also likely need some solid run support of which the Padres likely won’t give him here.
Enter Jeff Samardzija (RHP) and his 7.40 ERA and 0-4 record after four starts. That fat ERA and brutal record is going to scare away plenty of folks but not us because Samardzija is not a 0-4, 7.40 ERA pitcher. Au contraire my friends. A ridiculously low 53% strand rate has torpedoed Samardzija’s surface stats. Thing is, Samardzija has 30 K’s in 24 innings. He has a swing and miss rate of 13.4% and let’s not dismiss that he’s pitched in Colorado and Arizona in two of his four starts. It’s not just strand rate either, as Samardzija has endured a trifecta of bad luck with a high hit % and high hr/f rate too. He has above average league skills, an elite strikeout rate and he’ll now take a big step down in class when facing the Padres, who were swinging at everything last night in Arizona and hitting nothing. They’ll be swinging away here too and probably missing.
Brandon Lee
Rays vs. Blue Jays
Play: Rays +121
Tampa Bay is worth a look here at this price. Toronto has been a major disappointment early and haven't really got it going, as they are just 5-7 in their last 12. The Rays have struggled here of late, but have played decent so far in 2017. The Blue Jays will send out Marcus Stroman, who has been one of their bright spots and coming off a complete game against the Angels, but has struggled at home. He's got a 3.10 ERA overall in 4 starts and a 5.27 ERA in his 2 starts at home. On the flip side of this, Tampa Bay starter Blake Snell owns a 0.93 ERA over 2 road starts. Blue Jays are 4-11 in night games this season and 3-10 against division opponents.
Ray Monohan
Boston at Chicago
Play: Boston -2½
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Celtics look to close out their first round series when they take on the Chicago Bulls on Friday and at this line they have a lot of value. Ever since Rajon Rondo has gone out with injury for the Bulls they just haven't looked the same. After going down 0-2 the Celtics have won the last three games, and also covered.
I think Isiah Thomas will have a huge game and that will be the difference in this one. Some trends to note. Favorite is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Bulls are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Jimmy Boyd
Celtics vs. Bulls
Play: Bulls +3
I know Chicago has dropped the last 3 games in the series and there's a good chance Rondo doesn't play tonight, but I still like the Bulls to pull out the win at home. Chicago played a great game on the road in Game 5 for 3 quarters. They laid an egg in the 4th quarter and the offense was to blame. I look for a much better offensive showing at home in Game 6 and I also like the fact that the Bulls are now the desperate team. Keep in mind Boston has been the desperate team in each of the last 3 games and now that they have the lead in the series it will be hard for them to avoid a minor letdown on the road.
The Celtics are just 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games when they come in having won their last 3 games, while the Bulls are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after 3 or more consecutive losses.
Teddy Covers
Boston at Chicago
Play: Boston -3
Even after the line move towards the Celtics in early betting action, I’m still expecting Boston to close out this series with a Game 6 victory tonight. The results don’t lie. The Bulls covered the spread in Games 1 & 2 by 10.5 points and 21.5 points, winning outright as underdogs both times.
Then point guard Rajon Rondo broke his thumb, forced to sit out. The Bulls hung 106 and 111 points in the first two games with Rondo distributing the basketball extremely effectively, as Chicago notched 50 assists in those two ballgames. They notched only 31 combined assists in Games 3 and 4 with Jerian Grant, then Isaiah Canaan starting at point guard.
Grant was benched completely by Game 5, getting a ‘DNP coaches decision’. Canaan got ‘DNP-coaches decision’ 29 times in the regular season, and he played more than 20 minutes of gametime only once since December. Yet the last two games, Canaan has played more than 70 minutes of floor time. He has a grand total of three assists in those 70+ minutes.
Weak point guard play is a problem at any time of the year. When it comes to close-out game in a playoff series, weak point guard play is, quite frankly, an insurmountable obstacle. It’s not like the Bulls consistently dug deep at home, enjoying a strong home court edge at the United Center this year. We saw them lose their only two home playoff games this year in non-competitive fashion.
To make matters even worse for the Bulls, their lone superstar (sorry, Dwayne Wade is no superstar at this stage of his career), Jimmy Butler, is dealing with an ankle injury. Butler took 23 free throw attempts in Game 4, consistently and aggressively taking the ball to the hole. In Game 5 , he couldn’t drive, settling for just a single free throw attempt. That’s yet another problem for Chicago moving forward.
With Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart, Brad Stevens has three solid defensive options at the wing to keep Butler in check tonight, just as they did in Game 5. And there’s no questioning Boston’s closeout mentality for Game 6. Bradley’s quote speaks volumes: “We believe in one another. We went to Chicago knowing we were going to win those games, not hoping. Now it's our job to continue. Play the same way and finish the series in Chicago."
Andrew Gold
Angels vs. Rangers
Play:Rangers +112
Rangers are priced wrong here. That is because the Angels are coming off a sweep over the A's, but that is nothing to be overly excited about. The Rangers have slowly turned it around themselves winning 4 of their last 6 games.
Martinez was very impressive in his first game of season going 7 innings only giving up 1 run against the Royals.
Skaggs has already pitched against the Rangers this year and it was like batting practice. He gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings pitched.
Handicappers Hub
Padres vs. Giants
Play: Over 7½
Luis Perdomo comes in with a 6.97 ERA in his first 2 starts to the season and Samardzija comes in 0-4 with a 7.20 ERA on the season! I understand these aren't the best two hitting teams in the MLB but man these pitchers are not good and with the wind helping out to right field I look for some fly balls to carry out of the park and lead this to an easy over tonight in San Francisco.