Teddy Davis
Braves vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers -1½
This won't be a popular play but I think the Brewers are being a little under valued here with Anderson taking the mound. He has been extremely sharp in 4 starts with a 1.12 ERA and .75 at home in two starts.
Colon age is starting to show now as he has a 5.82 ERA on the road and yet to record a win on the road as well. With the Brewers bats heating up scoring 11,9,9 their last three games I see them getting to Colon early and often.
Tony Stoffo
Minnesota at Kansas City
Play: Kansas City -126
Minnesota hands the ball to RH Kyle Gibson who has a 0-3 record and a 9.00 ERA this season. Gibson has surrendered five homers in his four starts, including a pair in a no-decision in his season debut versus the Royals in which he yielded three runs over five innings. The Twins are 10-22 in their last 32 road games and 2-5 in Gibson's last 7 starts.
Kansas City send out RH Ian Kennedy to open a 10-game homestand. The right hander has done his part as he has permitted only three runs on 10 hits over 21 innings in his last three turns. The offense has given him only three runs of support in his four starts. That should change with the return back home today. The Royals are 5-1 in their last 6 home games and 5-1 in Kennedy's last 6 starts vs. Twins.
Dave Price
Phillies vs. Dodgers
Play: Phillies +175
The Philadelphia Phillies are red hot right now and continue to get no love from oddsmakers. They have won 6 straight coming in and now head to Los Angeles to face a Dodgers team that could be ripe for the picking after just completing a 4-game series with the rival Giants. I can't believe the price we are getting with the Phillies here considering they have a huge advantage on the mound. Jerad Eickhoff is 0-1 with a 2.92 ERA in 4 starts this season for the Phillies with 25 K's in 24 2/3 innings. Kenta Maeda has gone 1-2 with an 8.05 ERA in 4 starts for the Dodgers. Los Angeles is 2-7 in Maeda's last 9 starts. The Dodgers are 2-8 following a win this season.
Pro Computer Gambler
Wizards vs. Hawks
Play: Hawks -2½
The Wizards are 2-8 ATS (-5.30 ppg) as a road dog - since Mar 13, 2017.
In addition, the Washington Wizards are just 0-13 ATS (-8.42 ppg) as a dog with at most one day of rest after a home game in which they blocked at least 10 shots.
Meanwhile, the Hawks are 5-0 ATS (10.70 ppg) at home - since Apr 06, 2017.
Will Rogers
Chicago vs. Boston
Pick: Boston
The set-up: It's quite an Interleague series this weekend when the Chicago Cubs take on the Boston Red Sox for a three-game series at Fenway Park. It marks a homecoming for Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, who guided the Red Sox to an elusive World Series crown after a long drought in 2004, which began a run of three titles in 10 years. Epstein then did the same for Chicago last season, ending 108 years of agony for Cubs fans by winning the World Series in 2016. The 12-9 Cubs aren't dominating but they are back atop the NL Central, while the Red Sox, last year's AL East champ, are a modest 11-10 and third in the competitive American League East. The Cubs have won six of their last eight and bring an 8-4 road record into Fenway. Meanwhile, after losing back-to-back games to the-hated Yankees (3-1 & 3-0), Boston has dropped four of five.
The pitching matchup: Jake Arrieta (3-0 & 3.65 ERA) takes the mound for the Cubs and looks to remain unbeaten in 2017, opposed by Boston's Drew Pomeranz (1-1, 4.60 ERA). Arrieta has won three of his first four starts this season but he has needed strong run support to offset somewhat shaky performances in his last two outings. He allowed five runs (four earned) over six innings in a 12-8 win at Cincinnati on Saturday, surrendering two HRs for the second straight start. Arrieta is 1-3 with a 4.66 ERA in seven games (six starts) against the Red Sox but he hasn’t faced them since 2014. Pomeranz has recorded just one quality start in his first three outings of the season and that came in his season debut. However, Pomeranz is 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in three starts against the Cubs, including six shutout innings last season.
The pick: Boston has scored just 13 runs over the past seven games, including getting shut out three times in that span. However, the Boston bats can't remain silent forever and as noted, Arrieta has been far from sharp his last two outings. Also, Pomeranz just doesn't own a 1.13 ERA in three career starts against the Cubs, he's held them to a .148 opponents' batting average. Boston wins in Fenway.
Stephen Nover
Rangers +108
The combination of the Angels being on the road and pitching Tyler Skaggs puts me on Texas at this price.
The Angels have dropped seven of their last eight away matchups. They are 4-9 in Skaggs' past 13 starts.
Skaggs has a 4.44 ERA. He has a lifetime 6.20 ERA versus Texas. The Rangers just faced him on April 11 getting to him for five runs on eight hits in five innings.
Texas starter Nick Martinez looked good in his last start. He's pitching for his spot in the rotation so this game means a lot. He has a 2.51 lifetime ERA in six starts and two relief apperances against the Angels.
The Rangers are coming of a season-high in runs and hits during a 14-3 win against the Twins on Wednesday.
Brad Wilton
Strange how things go isn't it? Just last week all the sports pundits were talking about was how Boston was the worst # 1 seed in the history of the NBA postseason, and how coach Brad Stevens didn't know how to coach in the playoffs. That was when Chicago claimed BOTH games played in Boston to open their best-of-seven series, but low-and-behold, the C's have responded with 3 straight wins and covers and can eliminate this flawed # 8 seed from the playoffs tonight on their home court. Count on it happening!
True, Rajon Rondo's absence with a broken thumb has made a difference, and true Rondo has said he will play in this game, but unless Fred Hoiberg wakes up from his slumber on the sidelines, and finally runs the Bulls offense through Jimmy Butler the Bulls are toast.
Dwyane Wade is ancient and even though he finished with a double-double, there is no reason Wade needs to be controlling the round-ball that much with his isolation jump shots that saw him shoot 18 times on Wednesday.
Regardless, Boston has found the winning elixir as both Bradley and Thomas have hit their stride.
4 wins in as many games? No issue tonight in the Windy City! Play on Boston to close this series out.
4* BOSTON
Jack Brayman
My free play for tonight is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves.
Don't bother listing pitchers, as it's all about momentum and which is the better performing team right now.
The Brew Crew has won three in a row, while Atlanta may have recovered from a six-game losing skid to steal a pair from the New York Mets this week, including a 7-5 victory Thursday, but is still struggling.
Cheap price for a Friday night home game with a winning team.
Lay it with the Brewers.
2* BREWERS
Chris Jordan
Tonight my freebie is on the Arizona Diamondbacks on the Run Line, over National League West-foe Colorado, as the Rockies won't be able to contend with one of the best offenses in the league right now.
Yes, while I know these two are the surprise top teams in the West, right now, we all know this isn't going to last later this summer. But as long as Arizona is hitting the ball well, you have to lend it some credence when the value is right.
Colorado is in Phoenix after losing its third straight game to the Washington Nationals, a 16-5 rout in Denver. Now the Rockies have to focus on the second-highest scoring team in baseball, not to mention the best running team in the league.
Arizona - which ranks No. 2 in the league with 132 runs scored, behind Washington's 139 - leads the league with 27 stolen bases.
Now MAKE NOTE, all Run Line/Total plays automatically list pitchers with the starters who are scheduled to go at the time of the wager. But with this game I am not concerned with who goes for either team tonight and want you playing this game on the Run Line regardless. That being said, IT IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY to be sure you have action even if one of the pitchers scheduled to start is scratched, by re-wagering the game if that takes place.
That said, I'd much rather back Robbie Ray's team with him on the hill, than I would Colorado with rookie Kyle Freeland.
Take Arizona on the Run Line.
3* DIAMONDBACKS -1.5
Eric Schroeder
I tried to tell you the Pittsburgh Penguins were getting too much money as an underdog last night. Cashed in with that freebie, and tonight I'll play the Tampa Bay Rays as my freebie, in Toronto, over the Blue Jays. In this game, be sure you're listing scheduled starting pitchers Blake Snell and Marcus Stroman.
Snell is due for a big outing, after he issued a career-high-tying five walks Saturday against the Houston Astros. He has pitched five innings or less in three straight starts and seven of his last eight dating back to last season. He also lost to these same Blue Jays and Stroman earlier this month. Revenge is on the brain.
Stroman is coming off his second complete game of the season, after allowing two runs, just one of them earned, in a nine-inning victory versus the Angels. His first start of the year was against the Rays, opposing Snell, and he picked up a win after 6 1/3 quality innings.
The Rays will have his number and Snell will finally come around.
1* RAYS
MIKE MENASE
Padres vs. Giants
Play: Under 7½
This pick may seem unlikely because both starting pitchers have high ERA's, but I expect runs to be at a premium tonight.
Jeff Samardzija has been having a tough season so far--but it seems worse than it is. First of all, his fip is 4.41, compared to his ERA of 7.40, meaning that he has been rather unlucky so far. He has been unlucky in the sense that a pitcher has little control over the direction that a ball takes when it meets the opponent's bat. He has also been unlucky in that he has faced just two different teams, both of whom he matches up poorly with.
Samardzija is a pitcher who relies on a balance between power and finesse--between the velocity of his pitches and their movement and location-- and between inducing a ground balls and fly balls. So far, he has faced the Rockies twice, who have an .876 ops against pitchers who rely on a balance of power and finesse, and a .796 ops against pitchers who induce a balance of fly balls and ground balls. The Diamondbacks enjoy a .748 and .790 ops respectively in those two categories. The Padres, on the other hand, are producing a mere .672 ops against pitchers who rely on both power and finesse and just a .668 ops against pitchers who generate a balance of fly balls and ground balls. The Padres really only hit well against pitchers who rely primarily on finesse and inducing ground balls--and Samardzija absolutely does neither. Samardzija's babip is .64 higher than his career average meaning that he is coming into this match-up with tremendous upside. I expect him to do well against a team that he has given up just four runs to in his last 13 innings against them, half of those runs coming off of the bat of Hector Sanchez, who is really slumping this season with a .077 BA, one hit in thirteen at-bats. I expect a strong performance from Samardzija tonight. Even after their series in Chase Field, which is very much a hitter's park, the Padres are just 27th with 3.42 runs scored per game. I don't expect them to start producing when they now have to transition to playing in a pitcher's park against a pitcher with upside and a history of success against them because he matches up well with them.
The Giants lineup has been cold, averaging just two runs in their last three games. They are second-to-last on the season in runs per game and I don't expect any improvement from them tonight. I expect them to struggle against Perdomo who achieves a balance of power and finesse, particularly with his curve ball which arrives at the plate at well-above average velocity (85 mph) but also moves a lot. The Giants struggle with finesse pitchers. Even against pitchers who rely on velocity, as well as finesse, the Giants are managing a mere .587 ops. The Giants are also producing just a .692 ops against ground ball pitchers, which Perdomo very much is one, particularly because he relies on a sinker that induces an extreme amount of ground balls. Perdomo was having an excellent game in is last outing vs the Giants, until the sixth inning when he gave up a grand slam. In his last game vs the Giants, that was in San Francisco, he gave up one run in 6.1 innings. Perdomo is capable of continuing his success against the Giants because he matches up well with them and they are in a funk. Perdomo's last outing, in which he returned from the DL to face Miami, was a positive one. Even though his ERA was high, his fip was only 2.77, meaning that he pitched well. With a babip of .313, he has upside coming into this affair and I expect a quality performance from him tonight.
The Giants have an average bullpen. The Padres' total bullpen ERA, which pits them towards the bottom of the league, may raise concern. But they also have a couple of relievers that they can rely on in a close game--particularly Hand and Maurer. The Giants played extra innings yesterday, but their bullpen is not too fatigued. Strickland and Gearrin, for instance, only threw seven pitches each, and should be ready to pitch well tonight. I don't expect either bullpen to blow the 'under.'
Bruce Marshall
Colorado at Arizona
Pick: Colorado
The Rockies are glad to be done with the Nats after losing the final three of that four-game midweek set at Coors Field, Rookie lefty Kyle Freeland, however, was not subject to Washington's bats, and enters tonight's game at Chase Field allowing one or fewer runs in three of his first four starts. Tempting price for Colorado tonight.
Best pick
Chi-Cubs vs Boston (930 over 4½-120 1H) *2000
Secondaries picks
Pittsburgh vs Miami (902 over 4½-105 1H) *1500
NY Mets vs Washington (#904 under 7½-125) *1000
Baltimore vs NY Yankees (#918 under 5-115 1H) *500
Chi-Sox vs Detroit (#922 under 5-125) *500
OC Dooley
Rockies / Diamondbacks Under 9
In the past three days the Colorado pitching staff has been torched giving up a combined FORTY TWO runs in an 0-3 skid at home versus Washington. Going into last night Arizona for the season had been a staggering 9-0 "over" the total in home/night games where the offense had been averaging more than SEVEN runs per contest. Despite these factors tonight's total has actually DROPPED from the opening offshore figure (10 runs) which indicates we are in for an UNDER especially due to a stellar pitching matchup. Colorado's Kyle Freeland is coming off a performance where he tossed 7 consecutive SHUTOUT innings. According to his manager Freeland has "down movement" on most the pitches which is why he induces mainly GROUDBALLS by opposing batters. It was a year ago when Arizona's Robbie Ray was #2 in the entire National League in STRIKEOUTS per nine innings and his manager has called a combination of a fastball and breaking ball quote "electric"
Bob Balfe
Angels -110
Two problems the Rangers have right now is a low average against left handed pitchers and a really weak bullpen. If Vegas is going to make this an even money play then I am going to go against them until they fix up both problems. Tyler Skaggs has looked OK in his last two starts.