DAVE COKIN
MARLINS @ BREWERS
PLAY: BREWERS +115
The Miami Marlins are a hot team right now, having just completed a four-game sweep at Chavez Ravine against the Dodgers. Generally speaking, I don’t like to get in the way of a team on a winning streak, but I’m going to try it here.
As far as the matchup goes, I give Adam Conley an edge over Zack Davies, albeit not much of one. The Brewers have loads of flaws and are a bad baseball team. But I kind of like their lineup against mid-level or worse starting pitchers, and whole I like Conley as a prospect, he’s in that group for now. Davies is a soft-tosser who really needs to command his stuff to hang in. The good news is that Davies gets to face a lineup that hasn’t been all that potent for the most part and is now missing its main catalyst at the top of the order.
But the keys for me here are the scheduling and the intangibles. This is a potential flat spot as it is for Miami, having just swept the Dodgers in LA and now facing a far lesser rival in what is the eighth straight road game in three different cities for the Marlins. The fatigue factor could therefore be in play here.
Then there’s the Dee Gordon thing. Make no mistake, this one was a shocker that no one saw coming. Gordon is obviously a big loss physically, and I can only regard the news as a momentum breaker as far as the team is concerned. Instead of riding high off the great sweep against the Dodgers, the players Gordon left behind will now be catching the media heat for the next few days. That’s not their fault, of course, but Gordon won’t be there to have to face that music, and it’s a distraction.
I won’t put this one into the value category as Miami is still the better team with the more reliable starting pitcher. But it looks like a decent home dog spot to me, and I’ve decided to grab the price with the Brewers to get this one in the win column.
Rob Vinciletti
Giants vs. Mets
Play: Mets -143
The Mets are 10-0 at home of they were favored in their last game and 5-1 at home off a home win vs a team also off a home win like the Giants. The Mets also apply to a powerful database system cashing at over 88% since 2004 that pertains to home favorite when both teams are off home wins. The Mets have Matz going tonight and he has been solid going 13+ innings allowing 2 runs in his normal rest starts. SF has Peavy going and he has been dismal with a 6.86 Era. The Mets are 3-0 after a day of and SF is 0-3 on the road off a win where they scored 10 or more runs vs a team also off a win. Play NYM.
Scott Spreitzer
Angels vs. Rangers
Play: Angels -117
I'm recommending a play on the Angels as they look to win their 4th straight contest. There are two things we have been able to count on over the past 3+ seasons. 1) Colby Lewis has offered little more than BP when facing the Angels. 2) Colby Lewis has offered little more than BP when pitching at home. The Angels have tagged Lewis for 52 earned runs, 91 base runners, and 10 home runs in their last 10 games against the righty, spanning 51 2/3 IP. That's a hefty 9.06 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, and a 1.74 HRs/9 IP ratio, to go along with a .357 BAA. He's also got an ERA far north of 5 in his last 35 home starts. He's catching the Angels on a hot streak, especially Mike Trout, who carries an eight game hitting streak into this one. Trout has "owned" Lewis in his young career. Hector Santiago should get more than necessary from his offense. Santiago has been on fire in his last two starts and his team is a perfect 4-0 when he's toed the rubber in 2016. The right-hander is a perfect 5-0 in his last seven starts at Texas, posting a sizzling, 2.23 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and .192 BAA. Santiago led his team to a win over Texas in Anaheim on April 7, once again, finding little resistance. I expect more of the same tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Play: Yankees -115
Edges - Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka 3-1 last four team starts in this series; and 10-3 career team starts during April, including 5-0 away. Red Sox: 3-11 last fourteen games as a host in this series. With Tanaka in sharp current form with a 2.92 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP, we recommend a 1* play on the Yankees.
Jim Feist
Padres vs. Dodgers
Play: Under 7½
Dodger Stadium is a huge park, great for pitchers, and a weak San Diego offense is in town, No. 18 in runs scored, No. 24 in on base percentage. The Dodgers have not seen Padres' young righty (1.80 ERA) and the under is 6-2 in Padres last 8 road games. LA is on an 8-2 run under the total at home. Starter Alex Wood has thrown one game at home, allowing one run, five hits in a 3-1 victory. He was 2-0 against San Diego last season with a 1.29 ERA. The under is 9-3-3 in the Dodgers last 15 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.
Sleepyj
Toronto +2.5
We took the road team Hawks last night and got a win..I feel good about Toronto here as well...Raptors are the better team and I expect the entire team to show up here tonight...This is that one game that the Pacers look bad and give up a lead....One I don;t think they can get back..Pacers are famous for giving up leads time and time again..I think that happens again here...Won;t be easy for the Raptors, but I feel the matchups here will favor the Raptors tonight..Road win and series closer IMO.
Charlotte -124
Although Miami looked to be the better team before the playoffs started, this is a bad spot for the Heat...Bobcats will go all out here tonight and the youth will show up for them in a positive way..Something tells me this game might be well in hand for the Bobcats..Heat will need to defend and shoot very well for the entire game to pull out a win..I don't see it in this environment tonight..Bobcats looks scary right now.
Teddy Davis
Blue Jays vs. Rays
Play: Rays -115
The Rays are starting to ply better ball and are worth the price here tonight vs the Blue Jays. The public perception is still the Blue Jays hit a ton of home runs and score a ton of runs. Yes, they do have the power, but it's not showing up. They have only scored 6 runs the last 3 games and now face a tough lefty in Drew Smyly who has a career ERA of 2.74 vs the Blue Jays. Blue Jays barely hit above .200 vs lefties and with Tampa winning 3 out of their last 4 I seem beating Toronto tonight. Rays are 9-1 in Smyly's last 10 starts with 4 days of rest.
Brandon Shively
White Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Over 8½
I like this game over. The Orioles are 4-1 this season vs. left handed starters. In four games vs. left handed starters, the Orioles are averaging 9 runs a game. They have been able to hit lefties as the bulk of their lineup comes from the right side of the plate. Right handed batters are hitting .288 this year against Carlos Rodon for the White Sox, opposed to only .130 by lefties. In one career start vs. the Orioles, Rodon gave up four runs as his command was an issue walking four batters. The game went OVER with a 9-1 final. The Orioles tagged fellow southpaw John Danks last night for six runs off of nine hits.
Mike Wright takes the mound for Baltimore. Wright has a 6.23 ERA on the season. He has given up 3,4, and 5 runs in three starts. He hasn’t struck out more than four batters in a start.
Umpire Sam Holbrook is behind home plate tonight. Since 2005 (last ten years), Holbrook is the best ‘OVER’ umpire in the Majors cashing in at a 56% clip in over 300 games called behind home plate.
Camden Yards is a hitters ballpark. A total of 8.5 is a great number for this game. I look for both teams to score runs. A 4-4 tie in this game would lead to an automatic ‘over’. The White Sox were on a 12-1 ‘under’ run, but the trend has reversed to a 3-1 ‘over’ run their last four games.
Martin Griffiths
Birmingham City vs. Middlesbrough
Play: Birmingham City +1-117
A game that Middlesbrough simply must win, with just two games left and three teams on the exact same points, with very little goal difference between them and only two automatic promotion spots up for grabs, it could not be more crucial.
Boro face a Birmingham team with nothing to play, however they do not seem to be a team that has already gone on holiday, they still look competitive and will not be walkovers.
Middlesbrough have drawn their last two games, a drop of four points that has allowed Brighton and Burnley to take advantage, the big question is, are Boro running out of steam? they just may be.
I am not saying that Middlesbrough will not win, they are the favourites, but they are not running away with games, they are struggling to put points on the board and it is asking a lot for them to travel to Birmingham and win by two goals.
Birmingham are more than capable of holding Middlesbrough and this game could be decided in the last 15 minutes, if Middlesbrough do not get a early lead they will have to throw caution to the wind and leave themselves open to counter attack, by the same token if they did take an early lead then they may well decide to defend that lead, which would open them up to a Birmingham onslaught.
For me the spread is simply too high for Middlesbrough and the value is backing Birmingham to cover the spread.
Jimmy Boyd
Clippers +10
After losing at home by 10-points in their first game without Paul and Griffin, the perception here is that the Clippers are sitting ducks on the road tonight against the Blazers. I'm not buying it. While LA is clearly not the same caliber a team without their two stars, they aren't going to go down without a fight and there's enough talent leftover on the roster to not only keep this game close, but win Game 6 outright.
One of things that you can't overlook here is the pressure that's on Portland to win this game at home and not let the Clippers bring this series back to LA for Game 7. That pressure will be hard to ignore for a team like the Blazers who don't have a lot of playoff experience to fall back on. Let's not forget the Clippers had a 5-point lead at the half in Game 5 and were tied going into the 4th quarter.
This marks only the 22nd time that a Doc Rivers' team has been an underdog of 10 or more points. In the previous 21 instances his team has gone an impressive 16-5 ATS. We also see that the Blazers are just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games after successfully covering the spread in each of their last 3.
Matt Josephs
Detroit at Minnesota
Play: Detroit +102
Michael Fulmer makes his major league debut for the Tigers as they play at Minnesota. Fulmer went 15.1 innings in Triple-A giving up eight runs and 16 hits. He struck out 20 while walking five. The righty gets a Minnesota team hitting .234 in their last seven games and are 7-15 overall. Detroit's bullpen isn't awful with a 3.62 ERA on the road. Phil Hughes is 7-9 with a 4.58 ERA in 17 career starts against the Tigers. He started at home three times against the Tigers last year allowing 10 runs and 21 hits over 13 innings. Miguel Cabrera (17-38, 5 HR), Victor Martinez (10-34) and Mike Aviles (5-19) have good numbers against the pitcher. Detroit is hitting .265 on the road averaging 4.7 runs per contest. Minnesota's bullpen has six losses and six blown saves. I think we're getting good value with the road team.
Larry Ness
Cleveland Indians at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
The Phillies have surprised by winning SIX of their last seven, after Thursday's 3-0 win gave them a three-game sweep at Washington. Philadelphia's offense produced 20 runs in taking two of three at Milwaukee, then its pitching took over against the NL East-leading Nationals, posting a 1.00 ERA with 27 strikeouts in Washington. "A lot of people write us off saying we don't want to win," said Cameron Rupp, who had a two-run double in the ninth inning. "That's not true. We come out and play."
The 12-10 Phillies open a three-game IL series Friday night, when they host the 10-9 Indians. Philadelphia is hoping that Adam Morgan can continue the staff's recent success. The left-hander will get called up from Triple-A to replace Charlie Morton, who is out for the season after tearing his left hamstring Saturday. Morgan went 5-7 with a 4.48 ERA in 15 starts last season (Phillies were 7-8.), posting a 1.25 WHIP while opponents batted .311 against him. He had a 3.57 ERA with 20 strikeouts and four walks over 17. 2 innings in his three minor-league starts.
Cleveland's rotation hasn't fared well recently, allowing 13 runs on 19 hits in three games since Carlos Carrasco went down for at least four weeks with a hamstring injury. Corey Kluber (1-3, 4.67 ERA) will try to help turn things around, following his best outing of the season. Kluber won the 2014 Cy Young in the AL, going 18-9 with a 2.44 ERA. However, while his ERA did increase to 3.49 in 2015, he deserved much better that what he got in 2015.
Kluber finished 9-16 in 2015 (opponents batted a modest .233 against him and he owned a 245-55 KW ratio) but Cleveland went 11-21 in his starts, giving him a MLB-worst minus-$1,747 mark vs the moneyline. That was almost a $2,500 turnaround from his Cy Young season of 2014, when the Indians were 22-12 in his starts, plus-$722.
Kluber opened 2016 by losing THREE in a row (6.16 ERA) but the Indians are hoping that him allowing just ONE run over eight innings (on two hits with 10 Ks) in a 10-1 win at Detroit, is a sign that he is about to recapture his 2014 AL Cy Young form. Kluber is 3-1 with a 2.06 ERA with 34 strikeouts and only three walks in his career at NL ballparks and I'll back the former Cy Young winner, tonight.
Power Sports
Cleveland vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Cleveland
Corey Kluber, the 2014 AL Cy Young winner, was MLB's biggest money losing starter last season. That didn't seem fair because, honestly, his 2015 numbers weren't all that different from his Cy Young campaign. A rough start to this season (lost first 3 starts) put Kluber even more "in the hole," but a reprieve came his last time out when he delivered eight outstanding innings of two-hit ball. I look for the Indians to have a breakout weekend and it starts with Kluber tonight.
Kluber is simply too good to go on losing at the rate we've seen dating back to last year. Tonight, he goes up against a Phillies team that's coming off a shocking sweep of the Nationals. Though they are now 12-10 this young season (bit of a shocker!), the Phils have scored the fewest runs in all of baseball. That certainly makes this an advantageous spot for Kluber, who has been outstanding the few times he's gotten to pitch in an NL ballpark in his career. In five starts, he has a 2.06 ERA w/ a 34-3 KW ratio. Remember, he gets to face the pitcher and not a DH here.
The Tribe had yday off after beating the Twins on Wednesday, a win which avoided what would have been an embarrassing three-game sweep. The day off is definitely an advantage as the team is already 2-0 this season coming off an off-day. I just feel that Philly is very lucky to own a winning record right now, given how meager the offense has been. We all expect this to a very bad ballclub in 2016, so it's time to "sell high" on Friday.
Wunderdog
St. Louis @ Dallas
Pick: Dallas -110
St. Louis comes off an emotional seven-game series, knocking off the defending champs. It was also a huge emotional breakthrough for the team, after a frustrating series of first-round losses the last three years. Now they have to go on the road to play top seed Dallas. They face a rested Dallas team that is tops in the NHL in goals scored, fourth on the power play and 30-11-3 at home. Dallas had an easier road than the Blues in the opening series, beating the Minnesota Wild in six games. Captain Jamie Benn finished second in scoring this season after leading the NHL in 2014-15 and hasn't slowed down in the playoffs, netting four goals to go along with six assists while notching at least point in every game against Minnesota. The Stars are on a 35-17 run at home and 20-8 playing on three or more days rest.
Jack Jones
Washington Nationals -130
The Washington Nationals are hungry for a victory after getting swept in three games by the lowly Philadelphia Phillies. Now they should get back on track with ace Stephen Strasburg on the mound tonight with the way he's been pitching to start the season.
Indeed, Strasburg is 3-0 with a 2.17 ERA and 0.931 WHIP in four starts this season, including 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two road starts. Strasburg has posted a 2.80 ERA and 0.896 WHIP in four career starts against St. Louis as well.
Mike Leake has struggled in his first season with the Cardinals. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.567 WHIP through four starts this year. Leake is also 3-3 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.469 WHIP in nine career starts against Washington.
The Nationals are 6-1 in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Washington is 16-5 in Strasburg's last 21 starts overall, including a perfect 5-0 in his last five road starts.