Brandon Lee
Pirates -1½ +151
Instead of laying big juice with Pittsburgh on the money line, I believe the real value in Friday's content is on the run line. The Pirates should have no problem winning here by at least 2 runs. Pittsburgh comes in scorching hot at the plate, averaging 8 runs over their last 7 games. A stretch where they have hit .299 as a team with a .363 on-base percentage. The Reds on the other hand are hitting just .218 and scoring 3.1 runs/game over their last 7. I also really like the pitching matchup. Pittsburgh's Juan Nicasio has a not so great 4.50 ERA and 1.350 WHIP in 4 starts, but has been a completely different pitcher at home, where he's 2-0 with 3.00 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in 2 starts. Reds starter Daniel Straily hasn't been able to pitch deep into games and Cincinnati's bullpen has an awful 7.63 ERA and 1.663 WHIP on the road this season.
Teddy Covers
Nationals vs. Cardinals
Play: Nationals -133
Ride Teddy’s epic Big Ticket Hot Streak -- 12-2 with his last 14, 35-13 since October – with his Big Ticket MLB Game of the Month Tonight. And Ride Teddy’s scorching 75% NBA Playoff hot streak with his Heat – Hornets Game 6 Cash!
It’s not hard to make a case for betting against Mike Leake in a matchup against Stephen Strasburg, a true starting pitching mismatch. Leake’s walk rate is at a career high through his first four starts, and his ground ball rate is at a career low, a bad combination for a pitcher that doesn’t record strikeouts in bunches. He’s given up at least four runs in each of his first four starts of the season, and the only game St Louis was able to win with him on the hill came in a game where they scored eight runs.
I’m not anticipating that type of offensive outburst from the Cardinals tonight against one of Washington’s aces, Stephen Strasburg. The Nats are 4-0 with Strasburg on the hill this year. He’s lasted into the eighth inning in each of his last three starts, with a 27-4 strikeout to walk ratio during that span. Dusty Baker’s bullpen behind Strasburg is an elite unit even after taking a rare loss last night, ranked #3 in MLB in bullpen ERA.
Washington is hungry off an ugly home sweep by the Phillies during the week; shut out in each of their last two games. First baseman Ryan Zimmerman following last night’s tough loss, talking about this road trip: “We enjoy the challenge. We get to see what we are really made of. We go out and play three really good teams. I think the guys in (the) locker room are excited for it." Chalk worth laying!
Dave Price
Oakland A's +124
I'm going to take a shot tonight with the Oakland A's as nice-sized home underdogs to the Houston Astros. Sean Manaea will be making his first start of the season for the A's and will look to pick up where he left off in the minors. Manaea is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three starts at Triple-A Nashville. But the biggest reason for the play is to fade Mike Fiers of the Astros. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 5.73 ERA in 4 starts this season. Fiers has allowed 6 earned runs and 3 home runs in 11 innings in his last 2 starts against Oakland. Houston is 0-6 (-7.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season, and 7-15 in all games this year.
Dave Essler
Detroit +100
Fulmer is making his big league debut, and it couldn't be in a better park (big) or against a lighter hitting team. He's the Tigers' #1 pitching prospect and came over as part of the Cespedes deal. In the Minors he's averaged (all levels combined) almost a strikeout per inning, has only allowed 26 home runs in almost 400 innings, and has a 1.26 WHIP. Those are quite doable, and of course the Twins (nor anyone else) hasn't seen him before (F5 bet there, too). Add all those K's to the fact that Minnesota has struck out 10+ times in four straight games. Hughes throws strikes - but against the free-swinging Tigers that's been a perpetual problem. Cabrerra has 17 hits with five jacks in only 38 at bats - which is almost enough for me, but there are other Tigers' that have had plenty of success, albeit in far less at bats. We like to talk about how Target Field has been good for Hughes, but let's look closer. Over the last three years he's got a 4.72 ERA at home and allowed 43 home runs and a .286 batting average against - at home. The last three years against the Tigers he's allowed 56 hits in 41 innings and a .327 batting average against, and over half of that at home. Detroit has won four of five and at home this season their suspect bullpen has been MUCH better - only a 2.66 ERA. Detroit is 10-6 against RH pitching and 1-4 against LHP (which surprised me) and they're 6-4 on the road, having play at Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Houston.
Bob Balfe
Hornets -2
The Hornets long stretch of losing post season games is over as they have cashed 4 in a row. Miami has gone ice cold shooting the ball and it is time for Charlotte to turn the page as a franchise. The Hornets are now hitting their 3 pointers which is not good for a struggling Miami team that can’t protect the ball or get any shots to fall. Take the Hornets.
Trailblazers -10
Paul and Griffin being out means just about everything. The last game Portland finally pulled ahead in the second half as the Clippers played as well as you could considering the talent not on the floor. Portland is a great team at home and this game should be decided before the half tonight. Take Portland.
Orioles -115
Baltimore has been great against left handed pitching this year scoring over 7 runs per game and their bullpen has been rock solid. Look for the Orioles big hitters to get a lot of extra base hits tonight and for their bullpen to hold the lead they should have. Take the Orioles.
SPORTS WAGERS
Series DALLAS +115
Two days ago, this market wanted little to do with the Blues. They were perennial playoff chokers that blew their chance against Chicago and were being led by a man that hasn't won anything in this league in the 21st Century. Hell, if the NHL had the replay rules they do today back then, it's quite possible that Ken Hitchcock's Dallas Stars may have never won the Stanley Cup in 1999. Coming into Game 7 versus the Hawks on Monday night, the overwhelming majority was convinced Chicago would send St. Louis home early again. Instead, Blue Notes goaltender Brian Elliot was spectacular in backstopping his team to the second round. If it wasn't for Elliot, Hitch would be on the hot seat much like Bruce Boudreau in Anaheim. The Blues were outplayed and outshot by the Hawks in five of the seven games. If you read or listen to all the so-called experts for the Blues’ upcoming series with the Stars, you'd think the Blues just ran the Hawks right out of the postseason with little trouble. This market loves the Blue Notes now because of it.
The Stars had more trouble with the pesky Wild than most thought. They flip-flopped between goaltenders and neither guy looked great in that series. It was expected Dallas would steamroll Minny but that did not happen and now this market is not giving this #1 seed much of a shot in this series. On paper it looks like the Stars are outmatched by the Blues all over the ice. St. Louis is deeper at forward, has a much better defense core and Brian Elliot is the steadier option between the pipes. Those are all valid points but perhaps the biggest mismatch in this series is behind the bench. Lindy Ruff and Ken Hitchcock go way back. Ruff was the coach of the Sabres in that '99 final while Hitch led the Stars to their only cup, one that Ruff and many others think is tainted by a goal that under the rules at the time, should not have counted. Since then, Ruff has always made the most out of the little he had to work with in Buffalo while Hitchcock was fired from the Stars, Flyers and Blue Jackets for his underachieving teams. Hitch has been on the hot seat in St. Louis for much of his time there after three straight first round exits. It's been 10 years since a Hitchcock coached team has seen the conference finals and if the Blues fall behind in this series, the chatter will surely revert to his pitiful postseason record. Truth is, Chicago was vulnerable and the Blues to their credit finished them off.
This is an easy call for us. After the loss of the Blackhawks, Ducks and Kings, the three favorites in the West to advance, the Blues are now very high on the market’s radar. Everyone watched that series between Chicago and St. Louis while few on the East Coast were able to stay up to watch the other series. The Stars/Wild series drew little interest because the result was predictable. The Stars were expected to win and they did but now that all changes. That Dallas dressing room reads and hears the same things as we do. They are fully aware that few are giving them a chance in this series. They have suddenly become the Rodney Dangerfield from the West. There is no question they’ll bring a chip on their shoulders into this series.
Teams’ love it when nobody believes in them and so do we, as it provides us with some great value on a squad that's capable of scoring five goals a game or more. Dallas has proven all year that they can play with anyone. They have home ice advantage, they can play a physical game they won’t be asking John Klingberg or Alex Goligoski to play 38 minutes a game ala Duncan Keith. What we have here is an overreaction to the Blue Notes victory over Chicago combined with the Stars not so impressive series win over the Wild. That prompts us to step in for both the series and Game 1.
SPORTS WAGERS
BALTIMORE -1½ +179 over Chicago
The White Sox just swept the Blue Jays in Toronto before losing the opener of this series last night. Chicago’s record is 16-7, which is the second best mark in the majors behind that other team from Chicago. The difference however, is that the Cubbies are legit while the South Side is not. So, regardless of pitchers, it is time to attack the White Sox because a big correction to their won/loss record is forthcoming. We could tals about the starters here but we’re not going to because this wager has nothing to do with the starters. Again, we’re very likely going to be fading the White Sox over their next 15-25 games because they might lose 80% of them. Chicago is hitting .221. With the demotion and continuing struggles (5-for-22 at Triple-A Charlotte) of J.B. Shuck and the collapse of Avisail Garcia (.161 BA), Chicago's OF depth has suddenly been challenged. The South Side has made a lot of weak pitchers look good this year and the only reason their winning is because their pitching has held up. Aside from Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, it’s not going to hold up as well. Again, Chicago is an average baseball team on their best day and regression is on the way. The fade starts here.
OAKLAND +121 over Houston
After posting a 2.13 ERA in 72 major league innings in 2014, Mike Fiers apparently got the attention of the Astros, who picked him up at the 2015 trading deadline. While Fiers didn’t match those numbers in 2015, he made enough of an impression to earn a slot in the Houston rotation in 2016. An 82% strand rate contributed to that 2.13 major league ERA in 2014. His xERA was somewhat fortunate in 2015, as well. Fiers has good control and a very respectable BB/K split of 3/17 in 22 innings in four starts but there are more negatives than positives. What really sticks out is Fiers line-drive rate of 46%, which is the worst mark in major league baseball among starters with three or more starts. He’s also been tagged for five jacks already. This venue can make any pitcher look good but that also works for Oakland’s starter, who has way more appeal taking back a price than Fiers does spotting one.
What Houston is really good at is sending up players to the plate to strike out. Only five teams have struck out more than the Astros and they’ll now face a pitcher they have never seen that strikes out batters. With his manager saying he expects him to be up "for the long haul," Oakland called up 24-year-old Sean Manaea to make his major league debut tonight. The former 2013 first-rounder needed very little time to climb the minors, going from Rookie ball to High-A to Double-A last year. Now he has 18 IP in Triple-A this year where he put up a 21-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio facing 73 batters in three games started. Oakland's No. 2 prospect this year, and the overall No. 78 in the one top 100 list, Manaea is a 6'5", 245-pound lefty with a plus fastball that he throws on a downhill plane. He is especially dominant when he can repeat his delivery, but he needs more work on his consistency. His slider has the potential to be plus, too, but his change-up is fringy for now. He was making short work of the Pacific Coast League batters who were hitting just .232 against him while he had a strikeout rate of 10.5 K’s/9 while posting 2.0 BB/9. His career hr/9 mark is just 0.5, which bodes well against the Astros, who rely heavily on the long ball. His ceiling is high, but he needs to further develop that third pitch and to be more consistent with his slider in order to reach that ceiling. In just over two minor league seasons, his ERA is 2.82 with a 1.25 WHIP in 214.0 IP. Manaea has shot through the minor league system with relative ease and he’s very likely going to be a great starter for years to come. Playing first-time starters comes with risk but this risk has great value because Manaea’s profile plays to all the Astros weaknesses.
San Diego (5 innings) +161
Yeah, the Padres aren’t very good but there are many things to like about them tonight with the most important being the price tag. Furthermore, the Dodgers were just swept at home in a four-game series by the Marlins so it’s not like the Dodgers are flying high. Cesar Vargas was signed by San Diego in November 2015 after he was granted minor league free agency. The Padres thought so highly of him that they immediately placed him on their 40-man roster. Vargas signed with the Yankees in 2009 out of Mexico and spent his entire career in that organization until his free agency. He began his career as a starter, but was exclusively used as a reliever since 2014. He’s always posted solid numbers, but doesn’t own a plus pitch in his simple arsenal. Vargas mixes his pitches well and has exemplary command of his 87-93 mph fastball. Because he repeats his low-maintenance delivery, he spots the ball in the lower half of the zone. He also has a decent slider, slow curveball, and below average change-up in his tool box. He has a chance to stick as a starter because he has excellent durability and a deep repertoire. He can cut and sink his fastball and also rear back and throw harder on occasion. He’s one of those very under-the radar pitchers that can absolutely thrive in any one game. Lastly, the Padres own the second best team batting average against lefties and will face one here in Alex Wood.
Frankly, this wager is all about taking back this price against Wood. Dude is not even close to being elite but he’s priced like he is. If this ticket loses, we’ll walk away knowing we made a great value bet because that’s what this is. Wood has an 8-1 loss to the Braves this season. He’s walked 11 and struck out 12 in 21 frames. His swing and miss rate is 7% after one quality start in four tries and his swing and miss rate in his last start was 4%. Alex Wood brings a 4.75 xERA (6.00 actual ERA) into this start. We are in the business of finding value and allowing the chips to fall where they may. In that regard, the Padres become a must play. Big overlay here.
Michael Alexander
Marlins vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers -105
Miami starter Conley has allowed four runs in each of his past two starts, including a 5 2/3-inning stint against San Francisco in his last turn. The 25-year-old has struck out 21 batters in 19 1/3 innings and has fanned eight or more in two of his four outings. Conley has a 6.75 ERA in two career starts against the Brewers, allowing a whopping 17 hits in eight innings with left fielder Ryan Braun going 4-for-5.
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Blues and Stars to open their seven game series with a high-scoring contest.
Both teams have been lighting the lamp this postseason, as St. Louis comes into this one at 3-0-1 Over the total in their last 4 games, and they are on a 5-2-3 Over clip their last 10 games dating back to the regular season.
Dallas is 3-0-1 Over their last 4 games played this postseason.
I have a feeling that we are going to be seeing some pucks buried in the back of the net tonight.
Game One of the Western Semis to play Over the total.
2* ST. LOUIS-DALLAS OVER
Brad Wilton
My Friday comp play is the Nationals over the Cardinals.
Washington just suffered their first series sweep of the year, as they went 0-3 at home against Philadelphia over the past 3 days!
Look for the Nats to go on the road and open the weekend with a win in St. Louis, against a Cardinals team that was blanked 3-0 last night in their game at Arizona.
Stephen Strasburg and Mike Leake are your listed pitchers, and Strasburg stands at 3-0 for the year with a 2.17 ERA. He is aiming to go 4-0 for the first time in this career.
Mike Leake is making his 5th start of the season, and has nary a win to show for it, as he stands at 0-2 with an ERA over 5, and has allowed at least 4 runs in each of his first 4 starts this year.
Think you stick with the hot pitcher tonight, and that happens to be Strasburg.
Play on Washington.
2* WASHINGTON
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the Los Angeles Dodgers on the Run Line, against the San Diego Padres.
The Dodgers desperately need a win here, to hold off the San Francisco Giants in the National League West, and to stay afloat in the division. The Dodgers and Giants are tied for first place, so if there were a good time for L.A. to snap its four-game losing streak it's tonight.
I'm thinking the Dodgers turn things around completely tonight.
2* DODGERS -1.5
Gabriel DuPont
Let's move on to my complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 48-36 run with free picks: Toronto at TAMPA BAY (-120)
The STORYLINE in this game today - I head to American League East action for tonight's freebie, and I'm siding with the Tampa Bay Rays over the Toronto Blue Jays in a battle of third- and fourth-place teams from the division. This is a cheap number for the home team in central Florida.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Neither team has that impressive of an offense, so I immediately look at which team has the better pitching staff. The Rays rank third with home ERA, registering a solid 2.38 number through 13 games. The Rays, overall, rank fifth in the bigs with a 3.20 ERA
BOTTOM LINE is - That pitching is going to dominate the struggling Blue Jays, who have lost three straight games. Tampa Bay is on the brink of moving into first place, just a half-game behind co-leaders Baltimore and Boston. The O's take on the red-hot White Sox, while the Red Sox are playing the Yankees this weekend. Rays win tonight.
3* TAMPA BAY
Bruce Marshall
Oakland +120
Houston salvaged the final game of its midweek set at Seattle but April has been mostly a disaster for the Astros, only 7-15 in the month. Mike Fiers tries to slow the skid tonight in oakland but he was hit hard in his only road start to date. Oakland has blown hot and cold though has generally been surprise, and the 2016 debut of the touted Sean Manaea has A's excited.
Vegas Butcher
Detroit Tigers +106
Michael Fullmer is making his MLB debut and I’m going to back him in this one. The guy had a 2.6 FIP in the minors last year, and a 29% K-rate in his 15 minor league innings this season. Against a weak Minnesota lineup he should have success. The key to this play for me is the current form of Tigers’ offense. Two games ago they’ve moved JD Martinez into the 2nd spot in the lineup, and since then have plated 9 and 7 runs respectively. Hughes is a mediocre pitcher who will rarely issue a ‘walk’ but will also leave plenty of pitches in the zone. Tigers have had a lot of success off him last year (10 runs in 13 innings of work) and I expect good results for them tonight.
Colorado Rockies +130
Both Chatwood and Ray rely on their sliders for success. The difference tonight is that Arizona ranks dead-last offensively against the pitch, while the Rockies are 2nd in the league. In addition, Chatwood’s 3.8 SIERA is much lower than Ray’s 4.5 mark, indicating to me that regression is on the way for the latter. Rockies rank top-10 offensively against lefties and I like their chances of getting it done at these odds.
San Diego Padres +165
Not sure what Alex Wood has done so far to justify these odds today: 12% K-rate / 11% BB-rate / 5.0 xFIP / 4.9 SIERA / 6.0 ERA. As bad as San Diego ranks overall offensively, they’re actually 6th against left-handers. Oh, and Vargas is a young pitcher whom the Dodgers have never faced before. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but has very good control, and has kept the ball in the park in the minors. The odds here don’t justify it and there’s a lot of value on the visitors.
Harry Bondi
LA ANGELS -130 over Texas
Horrible match up here for the Rangers, who have not only really struggled against Angels starter Hector Santiago, but have also seen their starter Colby Lewis get lit up by LA in recent history. The last 10 games Lewis has toed the rubber against the Angels he has been tagged for 10 home runs and an ERA of more than 9.00. Meanwhile, Santiago is a perfect 5-0 in seven starts against the Rangers with a 2.23 ERA. And while the Angels have been a subpar team for the last couple seasons, since 2013 they are a profitable 93-69 (+15.6 units) when playing in the division. Lay the price on the road.