Free Picks for Friday, April 7th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
GIANTS AT PADRES
PLAY: OVER 8
I’m looking for a good amount of scoring this afternoon as the Padres open the home portion of their schedule with a day game against the rival Giants.
Matt Cain is on the mound for San Francisco. Cain is no longer the pitcher he was in the last, and it looks to me like he won the last of the Giants starting rotation slots by default. Add in Cain’s career-long tendency to start slowly, plus a less than attractive ledger over the year at this site, and I believe the Padres have a good chance to register some runs today.
The Giants didn’t hit much on Thursday night, but the overall offensive numbers from their series at Chase were pretty good. While I actually think Luis Perdomo might well end up being the best of the San Diego staters, he’s certainly not a top shelf performer and I’d be surprised if he dominates the Giants offense today.
Neither of the bullpens is particularly imposing, and I expect the offenses to outperform the pitching in this ballgame. I’ll recommend the Giants and Padres to go Over the 8.
Scott Spreitzer
Blue Jays vs. Rays
Play: Rays +116
Toronto managed to win its first game of the season at Tampa Bay on Thursday due to a grand slam by Kendrys Morales, but their other two top hitters, Jose Bautista and Troy Tulowitski, are a combined 1-for-24. Francisco Liriano comes off an 8-13 season with a 4.69 ERA, including 2-7 and 5.54 on the road. He gave up five runs and five hits in 6 1/3 innings against the Rays and is 2-3 with a 5.02 ERA in his career versus Tampa Bay. Matt Andriese faltered the second half of last season, but he started strong going 6-2 with a 2.77 ERA before the All-Star break while winning six of his first seven decisions. Tropicana Field has been a nightmare for the Blue Jays for many years as they have lost 58 of their last 86 games at Tampa Bay.
Rob Vinciletti
Twins vs. White Sox
Play: Twins +104
The Twins have started fast sweeping KC at home. Now they take to Chicago to take on the Whitesox. P. Hughes makes the start for the Twins and he has a solid 3.05 Era against the Sox in 15 career starts. He will oppose left hander D. Holland who has a 4.40 era vs the Twins. This game features a solid system from the database that plays against home favorites like Chicago that are off a home dog win scoring 10 or more runs in their last game, vs an opponent like the Twins that won at home and scored 5 or more runs. The sample is small but these teams are 0-5 since 2004. With the Twins playing solid ball. We will back them here tonight.
Red Dog Sports
Amiens vs. AJ Auxerre
Play: Amiens +200
Amiens vs. Auxerre, 2:45pm Friday in France League 2. Take Amiens +200. They are 13-9-9 (+10 goals) while Auxerre is #18 of the 20 teams in the league at 7-16-8 (-15 goal difference). I think Amiens wins 2-1 or 1-0.
Matt Josephs
Braves vs. Pirates
Play: Under 7½
The Pirates come home after a rough series in Boston on Friday. Pittsburgh managed just three runs and 13 hits in two losses to the Red Sox despite the pitching holding them to just eight runs. The Buccos hit just .173 in the series and they may struggle with Mike Foltynewicz. The righty has some of the best stuff on the Atlanta staff, but he also doesn't go deep in games. Folty gave up just seven runs in six starts striking out 18 while walking only five. Atlanta's offense struggled against the Mets and may have issues with the new look Ivan Nova. Nova improved greatly under Ray Searage's tutilege in Pittsburgh. He had a very good spring allowing just two earned runs and nine hits in 14 innings. Control wasn't an issue with 13 K's to just one walk. These two teams have struggling lineups right now so I think the under is a good play.
Dustin Hawkins
Indians vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Indians -160
Arizona pitcher Shelby Miller is 3-20 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.Cleveland is 24-5 against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
Ray Monohan
Detroit vs. Houston
Play: Under 223.5
This play just missed out on premium card. The Houston Rockets have not been scoring as many points as of late, which means when they face off against the Pistons there is a lot of value on the under. James Harden is dealing with a wrist injury and weather he wants to admit it or not it is affecting his play. The Rockets are playing a Pistons team that over their last five games have only averaged 97.6. The Rockets during this same stretch only average 108.8 points per game which is down from their season average of 115.3. Some trends to note. Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Under is 15-3 in Pistons last 18 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Pistons last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. These two teams under performing as of late is your gain.
Cajun Sports
Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -143
CSW-RG opened the season where they left off last season winning and ranked in the Top 5 in MLB at Sports Watch Monitor eventually taking the #1 spot for the 1st half of the MLB season. We only release Best Bet plays the first half of the MLB season. The Atlanta Braves are in the middle of an extended road swing having just played the Mets in New York and now travel to Pittsburgh to play three then a two-game series in Miami before returning to the ATL. The Pirates return home after opening the season in Boston with a three-game set against the Red Sox. Our BbTPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.38 runs in favor of the Pirates. The SPMatrix has Ivan Nova with an average of 6.52 and Mike Foltynewicz with an average of 5.97. Those averages come from our Starting Pitcher Matrix which grades on a scale of 1.00 to 12.00 of course the closer to 12.00 the better the starter for this situation. With more starts these pitchers will see their number get closer to the high number of 12.0 if they pitch well and if they don’t their numbers will fall. The Pirates have the edge both offensively and defensively with a projected score for each team of 4.06 for the Pirates and 3.02 for the Braves. Solid support for the host makes this an easy call for the Pirates on Friday afternoon.
Jim Feist
Lightning at Canadiens
Pick: Under
These are a pair of strong defensive teams. Tampa Bay plays its second straight road game, off a 4-0 loss at Boston. Tampa Bay is 9-3 under the total against the Eastern Conference, 34-15-4 under in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation. Montreal is a defensive-first team, third in goals allowed, off a 2-1 loss at Buffalo. Montreal is on a 17-6-6 run under the total, 15-5-6 under vs. the Eastern Conference, plus 7-2-2 under at home.