DAVE COKIN
DODGERS VS. GIANTS
PLAY: DODGERS +108
The Giants captured the opening round in the renewal of one of baseball’s best rivalries with a 12-6 victory on Thursday night. The series continues this evening with a debuting major leaguer challenging an old pro looking to recapture his glory days.
Ross Stripling will make his first start for the Dodgers tonight. Stripling was moving in a hurry after being signed out of Texas A&M back in 2012. But like so many young pitchers, he ended up with the UCL injury that required Tommy John surgery. That obviously halted his progression. But Stripling has evidently convinced the Dodger brass that he’s the right guy to try and fill that back of the rotation void currently existing due to injuries.
Stripling is described as a cerebral pitcher. That means he doesn’t have great stuff and doesn’t have a signature out pitch. But he’s a guy with some guile and smarts, and pitchers of this type can frequently end up being good enough to stick around the show with some success.
Cain is probably going to have to be that same type of pitcher if he’s to maintain a presence as a major league starter. He was never a great stuff guy, but Cain is one of the better bulldogs I’ve watched over the last several seasons. I can state without hesitation that Cain surely still knows what he’s doing and has a game plan in place. But I am far less certain as to whether he can be successful at this level anymore. I’m not going to formulate an immediate judgement off one start, but I feel comfortable offering that I’m on the skeptical side of this debate.
I have always liked getting involved in some fashion with debuting starting pitchers. They often have an advantage early on, facing hitters who don’t have a book on them right off the bat. That’s the premise for me here. Stripling has never been seen by any of the hitters he’ll line up against tonight, and I won’t be surprised if the rookie gets me five or six okay innings and a good chance to get a win.
For those who might be history buffs, Cain’s history against the Dodgers is not exactly a selling point. He’s been on the wrong side of some tough decisions against LA over the years, as evidenced by his poor career ledger. Cain has also been a pitcher who has generally not been at his best very early in the season. Whether or not that will still be the case is unknown. Unlike past years when Cain was firmly entrenched near the top of the San Francisco rotation, he’s now a guy who probably has a pretty short leash on a starting spot.
I’m basically playing this on the debut angle with an underdog price mixed in. I’ll take my shot with Ross Stripling and the Dodgers as road pups tonight.
Sleepyj
Colorado -142
The Rockies open up this series at home now..Colorado should feel good about hitting the ball at home here..We all have heard about the big bombs that Trevor Story has hit over his first 3 games...Well don;t be shocked if he and the other Rockies tee off in the home opener...Lyles get the call to open up here for the Rockies...He hasn't been anything special, but Manager Walt Weiss is going to plug Lyles into the starting rotation...This is a big spot for him and he should come in here rather confident...Has anyone noticed how many runs the Padres have scored in 3 games this year...0..yes, zero....So it hasn't been a good start and if they can't hit the ball here, it will be a long day for the Padres....I;m also not sold on the Rockies being as bad as the season win total would suggest...They have plenty of bats and speed...The pitching is the issue and I'm sure they are stressed to have better outings....I think the Rockies come with it here to open up at home...Rea gets the start here and it won;t be easy for him..His numbers last year indicated he had a rough time..He might need to pitch a gem here to come away with a win...I just don't see it with the Rockies looking to go yard all game long...Rockies get the call.
Rob Vinciletti
Astros vs. Brewers
Play: Astros -130
The Astros will look to bounce back from a pair of road losses and apply to a solid road warrior system that plays on road favorites that are off a road dog loss and scored 5 or more runs, vs an opponent off a home dog win like Milwaukee. These teams have won 31 of 42 times since 2004. S. Feldman for Houston has a solid 2.21 era vs the Brewers and Chase Anderson for Milwaukee has lost his last 3 April starts. Play on Houston tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
Rays vs. Orioles
Play: Rays -119
Chris Archer is looking for win #1 on the season in his second start. Archer had a tough first inning in Sunday's opener, unable to control his fastball. But he soon gathered himself, got his opening day emotions under wraps, and mowed through the tough Blue Jay offense after that. Archer struckout 12 batters in five innings of work and 66 of his 107 total pitches went for strikes. I expect the young right-hander to be on his game from the opening pitch in this one. Archer had little trouble in four starts against the Orioles last season, posting a 3.04 ERA, while striking out 25 batters in 23 2/3 IP. He threw six innings of shutout baseball in his lone 2015 start at Camden. The Tampa Bay ace has been at his best in April over the last three seasons, normally a quick starter out of the blocks. Chris Tillman goes for the Orioles tonight following a horrible 2015 campaign. The right-hander had over-performed in previous seasons, but collapsed last year, tagged for a 4.99 ERA and a WHIP near 1.40 in 31 starts, while also struggling against the Rays in six starts. We earmarked the Rays after watching Archer in the opener. We'll back them here.
Bob Harvey
Lakers vs. Pelicans
Play: Over 202
Another historically bad season is winding down for the Los Angeles Lakers who visit the New Orleans Pelicans. The Lakers have won the past two meetings including a 99-96 victory on February 4.
The Lakers (16-62, 35-43 ATS) loss to the Clippers on Wednesday was its 62nd of the season breaking the team record from a year ago. Kobe scored 17 points in the 91-81 setback but was just 6 of 19 shooting and is now an anemic 21 of 77 from the field in his last five games. Rookie D’Angelo Russell hasn’t been much going 21 of 75 over that same stretch. On the bright side, Julius Randle has turned into a beast on the boards. He had 20 rebounds in Wednesday’s loss
The Pelicans (29-49, 35-43 ATS) are down to nine healthy players including the top five scorers who were averaging at least 15 points per game. The list includes All-Star Anthony Davis who is facing off-season surgery on his knee and shoulder.
The home/road split shows a decided edge for the Pelicans who are 20-18 on their home hardwood compared to the Lakers dismal 5-33 road mark.
LA is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games but 9-5 ATS in the last 13 meetings in the Big Easy.
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings and 5-2 in the past seven in New Orleans.
Jim Feist
Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Play: New Orleans Pelicans -3
Despite injuries down the stretch you have to give New Orleans credit under this coaching staff, on a 3-3 SU, 5-1 ATS run. They lost by 8 at San Antonio as a +19 dog, and got three wins as a dog each time over the Knicks, Nets and Nuggets. The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS following a straight up loss. They face a bad Lakers team a long way from home, one ranked No. 27 in the NBA in points allowed, No. 29 in field goal shooting defense. The Lakers are 24-49-1 ATS against the Western Conference.
Will Rogers
St. Louis vs. Atlanta
Pick: Under
The Atlanta Braves have started out the season much like they finished off last year, as one of the worst teams in the major leagues. They got a great effort from ace Julio Teheran on Opening Day, but the bullpen couldn't hang on. They come into Game 1 of a home series versus St. Louis still in search of their first win, and it won't be easy facing a tough left-handed starter.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Braves will send 23 year old Brett Wisler to the mound tonight, and he went 5-3 with a 2.93 ERA in nine home starts last year. His counterpart Jaime Garcia was 10-6 with a 2.43 ERA in 20 starts before getting injured last year. Garcia was 8-5 with a 2.56 ERA in 15 starts under the lights.
2. Atlanta's Offensive Futility - Only the Padres have scored fewer runs that Atlanta so far, and this is familiar territory for the Braves. Last year they scored a major league low 573 runs. They also hit a major league worst .231 versus left-handed pitching.
3. X-Factor - The under is 13-3-1 in Atlanta's last 17 home games.
Marc Lawrence
LA Dodgers vs. San Francisco
Pick: LA Dodgers
Edges - Dodgers: 8-1 last nine games versus Matt Cain, including 5-0 the last five Giants: Cain 2-10 last 12 team starts in April. With Cain in wobbly KW form this spring with 5 K’s and 6 W’s, we recommend a 1* play on the Dodgers.
Larry Ness
LA Dodgers vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco
The Dodgers opened the 2016 season in San Diego and shut out the Padres in all three games, while scoring 25 runs. However, a visit to AT&T Park on the Thursday, the first of a four-game series, didn’t work out as well. Los Angeles’ 31-inning streak without yielding a run, one shy of the major league record to start a season, ended when the Giants scored three times in the fifth Thursday and overcame a 4-0 deficit to win 12-6. While the Dodgers have claimed three straight NL West titles, the Giants have won THREE of the last six World Series (in 2010, 2012 and 2014) and expect to be a contender again here in 2016 (love those even-numbered seasons!).
The Giants got the best of the Dodgers in head to head play last year, going 11-8 (plus-$650) and with Thursday’s win, have now taken NINE of the last 11 games against the Dodgers at AT&T Park. Matt Cain will be on the mound for San Francisco but various injuries have limited the veteran right-hander to 26 starts while going 4-11 with a 4.74 ERA the past two seasons. Cain, pitched poorly in three spring training starts (1-2 with a 7.71 ERA) plus is 5-11 in 30 career starts vs LA (Giants are 11-19), although he owns a respectable ERA of 3.58. However, he is 0-3 with a 5.27 ERA in his last five against the Dodgers, although has not faced them since May 2014.
Ross Stripling makes his MLB debut for LA against the team's most-hated rival. He was surprisingly named the Dodgers’ fifth starter over Carlos Frias and Zach Lee, despite missing most of the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery on his right arm. “I think he has the weapons and if you couple that with a game plan, it gives us the best chance for us to win,” manager Dave Roberts told reporters. The 26-year-old has never pitched above the Double-A level (went 3-6 with a 3.66 ERA pitching for Double-A Tulsa and Class-A Great Lakes last year), posted a 4.09 ERA over 11 innings during spring training.
Cain’s health and effectiveness is a real question mark but who knows about Stripling, either. We do know that the Dodgers were minus-$2,415 against the moneyline last year on the road and that most of the team’s “monetary deficit” was a result of road night games up against right-handed starters (16-27, minus-$2,105). I’ll take the Giants to make it two straight over the hated-Dodgers.
Mike Lundin
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -162
The Boston Red Sox took 10 of the 19 meetings between the division rivals last year, but I like the Toronto Blue Jays here in the first meeting of the 2016 season.
The Jays give the ball to their ace Marcus Stroman (1-0, 3.38) who held the Rays to three runs on six hits through eight innings of a 5-3 win in his season debut. He's lasted at least seven innings while posting a 1.26 ERA to win each of his four career starts, three at home, against the Red Sox.
Boston will turn to Joe Kelly (2015: 10-6, 4.82 ERA) who'll make his first start of the new season after posting a 4.82 ERA last year. He was 1-1 with a 6.17 ERA through four starts against Toronto, giving up 16 runs on 22 hits and 14 walks over 23 1/3 frames. Edwin Encarnacion is 4-for-14 with four walks and a homer in previous meetings with Kelly.
The Blue Jays opened the season by splitting a four-game set at Tampa Bay, losing each of the last two games. They'll be ready to put up a show and get back to their winning ways in front of the home fans tonight.
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Astros over the Brewers.
After winning on opening day in New York, the Astros forgot how to pitch, and we roughed up good by the host Yankees the past pair of days.
Expect things to change tonight as they hit Milwaukee for the weekend. Houston will be facing a Brewers team that has lost 2 of 3 to open the year, and are now just 2-10 their last dozen games in front of the home faithful.
Houston is 16-5 their last 21 interleague contests, and I will back them with Scott Feldman on the hill tonight.
Feldman owns a 2-1 mark with a 2.12 ERA in his 3 career starts against Milwaukee, while Chase Anderson will make this Milwaukee debut after being picked up from the Arizona Diamondbacks in the off-season.
Anderson is making his first career start against Houston.
The Astros are too good to get pounded the way they did on Wednesday and Thursday in the Bronx, so look for them to do the pounding tonight.
5* HOUSTON
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Friday is the Under in the Lakers-Pelicans meeting.
Just don't see how these teams make their way to the Over side of things, especially when you consider Los Angeles comes into the Crescent City having played Unders in each of their last 4 games, and 5 of their last 6 overall.
New Orleans has seen the Under connect in 6 straight and 7 of their last 8 overall.
Series numbers show the last pair of meetings, and 4 of the last 5 showdowns between the teams as having held Under the posted price.
As you can see, too many numbers point towards a lower-scoring game tonight in this one.
They call the city of New Orleans, The Big Easy, but tonight there is nothing easy about putting the basketball through the hoop for these sides.
Lakers-Pelicans Under the total.
3* L.A. LAKERS-NEW ORLEANS UNDER
Wunderdog
San Diego @ Colorado
Pick: San Diego +128
San Diego was off a disastrous start against the Dodgers, but the team isn't this bad (no one is). San Diego has a good arm going in 25-year-old Colin Rea, who was 2-2 with a 4.26 ERA in six starts in 2015, including throwing seven shutout innings in San Diego's 2-1 victory over Colorado in September 8. He allowed just two hits in that game. Colorado is home but 9-20 when its opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. Colorado starter Jordan Lyles had a rough spring, allowing 15 runs and 23 hits in 19 innings. Lyles has a 5.40 ERA in seven starts against San Diego and the Rockies are 2-11 when Lyles' faces the National League West. San Diego also won the 2015 season series 12-7.
Allen Eastman
Kansas City (-150) over Minnesota
I like Kansas City to pick up a win here on Friday night. They will be going with young Yordano Ventura in this one. People thought he wasn't very good last year. But he still won 13 games and had a higher strikeout-to-walk ratio than his breakout 2014. He is still just 25 years old and entering his prime. I think he'll be great to start off the season, and he has always been much better at home. The Twins are going with Tommy Milone. But Kansas City was one of the best lineups in baseball against left-handed pitching the last to years. I think the Royals are still one of the best teams in baseball, and they should prove it again this week by pounding a division rival.
Indian Cowboy
Clippers vs Jazz
Play: Jazz
We roll with Utah this Friday evening as they hook up against the LA Clippers in what should be a thrilling game in Utah. For starters, Utah has one of the best home-court advantages in the league when you take a look at who they have beaten this year, including the Cavs and nearly beating the Warriors a game they frankly should have won. This is a team that has a fantastic fan base and on a Friday Night at that, should be more than ready to cheer on a team that is seeking the playoffs after a drought of so many years. A young coach who has a lot of young core talent who believes in themselves really makes a difference for a team who finds itself 39-38 and 24-14 at home overall. This team lost to the Clippers 104-109 earlier this year, and without a doubt they Clippers will be the public favorite as they normally are and this makes for a great public fade. This is a Jazz team that has beat the likes of the Cavs at home, was only a 4.5-point home underdog to the Warriors which speaks volumes of the respect the oddsmakers have for this team and a squad that are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Western Conference as each game is key for their playoff hopes and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games as well.