Hollywood Sports
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colorado Rockies
Colorado (2-1) returns home after a three-game series in Arizona to start the season. The Rockies have won 8 of their last 11 opening games to a new season which is a good sign for them this afternoon for their Opening Day in front of their home fans. Colorado has also won 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They should fare well against this Padres team that has lost 11 of their last 15 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. San Diego (0-3) remains winless after their 7-6 loss to Los Angeles on Wednesday. The Padres have lost 5 straight games after a loss. San Diego has laos lost 5 of their last 6 games on the road.
Power Sports
Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors
Pick: Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are now locked into the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference thanks to last night's loss in Atlanta (I gave out the Hawks as a 10*!). They could decided to rest starters here. Meanwhile, Indiana is off a big win over LeBron-less Cleveland and needs one more to clinch a playoff spot. That said, this is an overlay.
Often times, bettors will overreact to news of a player's absence or a team being in a "must win" spot. That makes this game a "double whammy" of sorts as my own power ratings say the Raptors should be a five point FAVORITE, not dog, in this spot. That would be assuming they are playing a full squad, which they may very well not do, but still the line swing is just too severe in my opinion. The Pacers are just 1-9 ATS against Toronto the L3 seasons and with a losing road record, the role of favorite here doesn't seem to suit them too well.
Everything went right for Indiana against Cleveland as not only did they not have to face LeBron James, but they ended up making 16 of 31 three-pointers and had 70 points by halftime (36 in the 1Q). Even if the Raptors are sitting key players, I cannot see the Pacers shooting the ball that well yet again. This is a team that is only 24th in offensive efficiency. Note that the last time Toronto decided to rest Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan for the same game, they still only lost 102-95 and that was in San Antonio (were +13.5). I'd wait a while to see if the line gets bet up any further, but the Raptors taking points is a solid recommendation in this spot. With three easy games after this concluding their regular season, the Pacers will be just fine as far as the playoffs are concerned.
Teddy Covers
Chicago at Arizona
Play: Over 9
Even with the roof closed at Chase Field on Friday (decent chance of desert rain tonight), I’m still looking to bet the Over in Phoenix tonight. Both of these teams have come out of the gate swinging – literally. We’ve seen 17 home runs hit through the first four games at Chase Field. Three of the first four games here have produced 15 runs or more. And there’s no reason to expect anything dramatically different tonight.
Lineups are undervalued in the 2016 MLB betting marketplace, with starting pitchers exerting enormous influence over the prices for both sides and totals. These two lineups have no business with a total of 9 right now. Chicago has pounded out 29 runs in their first three games, with 14 extra base hits and an OPS of .920 in the process. Arizona has scored 25 runs in four games even with AJ Pollack out with a broken elbow; hitting .295 as a team with 16 extra bae hits and an OPS of .851. As we saw last night, either one of these lineups is capable of approaching or exceeding the total all by themselves.
Arizona’s pitching staff held a team meeting following last night’s loss, with manager Chip Hale expressing his frustration at their effort. Talking about pitching well is not the same as actually pitching well, and this bullpen is already showing signs of vulnerability. That’s bad news with Robbie Ray on the hill, after his 1-6 record with a 4.88 ERA on this field last year. Chicago’s bullpen has been strong thusfar, but starter Jason Hammel had a terrible second half last year and two disastrous postseason outings, not exactly the most trustworthy hurler here. Expect plenty of crooked numbers on the scoreboard in this game, just like last night!
Bob Balfe
Padres/Rockies Over 11
The Padres are in the right ballpark considering it must be awful to go your first three games and get out scored 25-0. The Rockies have a brutal bullpen and I think Rea will help his team with his bat as a rare pitcher who can hit. Colorado crushes balls in this park and with the win blowing out I just don’t think Vegas can make a total high enough. By mid season you will see these types of games around 13 runs set by the line makers. Look for San Diego to put up their first offensive production on the year.
The Sports Boss
Knicks at 76ers
Play: 76ers +2
In some Friday night NBA action we are backing the barking dog homestanding Philadelphia 76ers vs the visiting NY Knicks. The Knicks come into this one looking for the season sweep of Philly but they should find a team ready to play well here with the recent shake up in leadership....you know Bret Brown told his players they better play hard because the new leadership will have no reason to hang onto them next year; the Knicks have suffered another massively disappointing season and will have little to no interest in this game. Backing the young Sixers to pick up a W here, but let's take the 2pts just in case.
VegasButcher
Chicago White Sox +129
There’s no denying that Salazar is a much better pitcher than Danks at these points of their careers. But today’s game is in Chicago, where the weather is brutal (low 30’s with snow). Things tend to happen in these kind of conditions as pitchers have a harder time getting loose, and more importantly, lasting deep in games. A hard thrower like Salazar might have a more difficult time than the soft-tossing lefty Danks. Cleveland is overvalued regardless in this spot and I’ll back the home dog here.
San Diego Padres +132
Colin Rea is virtually an unknown, but what we do know is that in his 32 career MLB innings his HR/9 rate is only 0.6. He’s hittable, but he keeps the ball on the ground. Opposite him is Lyles, whose HR/9 rate is 1.1 in 552 career MLB innings. The sample size clearly indicates that Lyles is much more prone to the ‘long ball’. I’ll back the pitcher who is less likely to give up homers here and expect San Diego to grab their first win of the season in this one.
Tampa Bay Rays -135
A stud pitcher off a ‘loss’ is never a bad idea to back. These guys tend to step up off outings like that, though I wouldn’t classify Archer’s outing as ‘bad’. In 5 innings he struck out 12 hitters, and only a really poor 1st inning led to 3 runs (2 earned). It’s even more impressive when you realize that the outing came against Toronto, arguably the best offense in the league (Cubs’ players might disagree with that). He’ll be going up against Tillman, who looked really good himself, though it was only in 2 innings of work (5K’s). His last outing was cut short due to rain, and he’ll now go on the mound again with a 3-day lay-off. His routine might be off some and I don’t expect him to be as sharp. I like Tampa with Archer in a bounce-back spot.
Milwaukee Brewers +114
Scott Feldman as a road favorite? This probably should be a ‘fade’ every time. Both him and Anderson were similar pitchers last year (4.2 vs 4.3 e-ERA) so the advantage here is the presumed offensive firepower of the Astros. Still, Milwaukee’s BP is rested, Anderson is an unknown to the Houston hitters, and of course Milwaukee is at home. I’ll grab the home dog here.
Texas Rangers +110 (1st 5 innings)
Rangers’ BP is shot, so I’ll back them in the first 5 here. Griffin has 19 K’s in 18 ST innings with only 2 BB’s. He has pitched really well and I hope that carries over into the regular season. He’ll also go up against Shoemaker, who barely won a rotation spot. His HR/9 rate was 1.6 last year as his K-rate declined. Not being a GB-pitcher and failing to have elite K-rates, is a recipe for disaster. Rangers have the firepower to hit a few deep balls off him (HR’s/doubles) tonight. I’ll back them in the first 5 of this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston +155 over TORONTO
Joe Kelly went 10-6 with a 4.82 ERA in 134 innings for the Red Sox last season. Kelly is a true flamethrower (95.8-mph fastball) but he’s still trying to turn stuff into skills and results. PRO: Command uptick supported by first-pitch strike rise and late swing and miss surge; three years of rising K’s. CON: Bad OPS and command vR; ugly dominant start/disaster start split, which is an indication of his game-to-game mediocrity. Yes indeed, Joe Kelly brings risk and he might blow up against this Jays lineup but the price on Boston is simply too good to pass up and maybe, just maybe, Kelly throws a strong game against a Jays team that is better against lefties and that has already struck out 53 times in four games.
For those of you that do not live in Canada, let us set this up for you. The Blue Jays had this country in a frenzied state last season. The Jays rode a wave of momentum and an entire country cheering them on into the post-season before they would succumb. That wave of support has carried over into this season and this is now the most highly anticipated opener since the 1977 inaugural year opener on a snowy day in Toronto at old Exhibition Stadium against the White Sox. In Canada, early April is the time of year that hockey playoffs are at the forefront of every city and province. This year, however, no Canadian team will participate in the NHL playoffs for the first time since 1970. That shifts all the attention over to the only Canadian baseball team. Overhyped, overvalued and with several players coming off career years, the Jays are not as strong as everyone in Canada thinks they are. Marcus Stroman is not Clayton Kershaw, Kevin Pillar is not Willie Mays in centerfield, and the Jays bullpen is a liability.
Although things are looking good for Stroman, there are risks in his profile. Stroman's ability to keep the ball on the ground and limit the free pass give him an extremely high floor. However, he hasn't yet proven he can strike out hitters at a plus rate, and a career 9% swing and miss rate shows us there's some work to be done here. At just 25, Stroman's pinpoint control and elite groundball % provide an excellent foundation for continued growth. That growth will hinge on his ability to generate more Ks and handle a 200-IP workload. While Stroman is the Jays ace for now, he’s not a front-line major league pitcher just yet but he’s absolutely priced like one. Our position is that the Jays will be extremely overpriced for at least the first month of the season, especially at home and so the attack on them begins here.
MILWAUKEE (5 innings) +110
Chase Anderson made the rotation in April of last year and pitched well enough to stick there all season for the D-Backs. Anderson’s ERA spiked down the stretch, but a nasty trifecta of poor 2H luck (hit% strand%, hr/f) was to blame. Anderson has been a little bit less than the sum of his parts. His changeup, which he can manipulate to be bigger or smaller depending on the situation, has been always above-average and sometimes plus by whiff rates. His curve is solidly above-average in both whiff and ground-ball rates. His fastballs are almost exactly average, after some improvement in the two-seamer last year. But despite what should be an average (or better) arsenal, he hasn't managed to put up an average season yet. After nearly three hundred innings, we may have to consider that average represents his upside. Two things offer a bit of hope, however. For one, he showed better velocity after coming back from injury in the second half, and he boosted his strikeout rate as a result. And two, the added use of the sinker should help him better his ground-ball and home-run rates one more time. Anderson is already 28, and it's possible the sinker robbed his changeup of some effectiveness last year, but he's still a decent arm with no hype surrounding him. It also helps that the Astros have never faced him before.
The reason for this wager is not because we love Chase Anderson, it’s more because Scott Feldman cannot be favored on the road. It’s like Feldman took a dare to see how far he could lower his strikeout rate and still keep his ERA under 4.00. Last year, Feldman had May knee surgery and September rotator cuff ills didn't help his skills either. Feldman’s control and groundball rate are the only metrics keeping him from going up in flames but it’s not going to last much longer. Feldman’s groundball rate is step one to a valid skill set, but there's no step two here. Righties rake him and lefties aren’t far behind. Feldman’s skills have never even sniffed adequate and therefore we’ll fade him in the first five innings and leave the pens out.
Los Angeles (5 innings) +110
Ross Stripling is profiled in our major-league call-ups section and we’ll run that piece on him here too. A fifth-round signing in 2012, Stripling was fast tracked, debuting in the Cal League in 2013 and ending the season at Double-A Chattanooga while putting up solid peripherals. Tommy John surgery would derail his entire 2014 season and he would come back to pitch around 71 innings last year with expected diminished velocity. At his best, the 6’3”, 210-pound Stripling operates with a solid four-pitch mix. His fastball, slider, and changeup all range from average to above-average, alongside a curve that remains below average. However, his plus command allows the repertoire to play up and project as a solid backend option. Stripling will be on a 130 IP limit this year, so the 26-year-old won’t be a full-time option throughout the whole season, but he has the potential to eat innings to start the year as his stuff continues to return to pre-injury form. Stripling fills up the strike zone with a sinking 88-94 mph fastball with good armside run, generating downhill plane and getting a lot of grounders. Scouts are split on whether they prefer his curveball or his short, mid-80s slider. He maintains his arm speed when he throws the changeup, which flashes average but lacks much movement. Stripling's polish had put him on the fast track with the goal being for his stuff to return to where it was before surgery, pitch in 2015 then perhaps emerge as a back-end starter candidate in 2016 and that’s precisely what has transpired. With three average-or-better pitches and average command, he does have the stuff to be a fourth or fifth starter and is worth keeping an eye on. The Giants have obviously never seen him before so that works in Stripling’s favor at least the first couple times through the order. This wager however, is not about backing Stripling. It’s about fading Matt Cain, a veteran pitcher that has one foot in the gutter.
Matt Cain went 2-4 with a 5.79 ERA in 61 innings last season. A strained flexor tendon at the end of spring training wiped out his first half and he was a shell of his former self when he came back. Cain’s velocity reached a career low, and his strikeout rate followed suit. Cain no longer has the durability or a low hr/f going for him. His hr/f hit a career-high 15% in 2015. For years, Cain consistently posted suppressed HR/FB rates, especially since he was a fly-ball pitcher (career 0.88 grounders per fly ratio). His home park helped, but his HR/FB rate was below average in away parks too. Then 2013 happened (11%). And then 2014 happened (14%). And now 2015 happened (the aforementioned 15%). Suddenly, Cain lost his home run prevention magic. Injury might be the explanation or perhaps good fortune had been involved and it simply could not last any longer. For a guy who always posted mediocre skills to begin with, and relied on a low BABIP and HR/FB rate for most of his success, it's difficult to be optimistic about a significant rebound. Cain looks like a longshot to stay healthy or productive, much less both.
Ray Monohan
Grizzlies +6
The Grizzlies head into Dallas and catch 6 points on Friday, giving them plenty of value here in this one.
How important is this game for them? They sit tied with Portland for 5th/6th with the loser having to play in Oklahoma City in round one opposed to the Clippers. This is such an important game for Memphis as they simply cannot afford to fall into the 6th spot.
Memphis has battled health issues all season long, but Zach Randolph is healthy and makes this lineup so much different. Randolph is not just a presence inside offensively, but he also dominates the defensive end, altering shots and shutting down the opposing big man.
Some trends to consider. Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 Friday games. Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Look for an inspired effort here from Memphis today. They know they need a win, so they should keep this one close, with a chance to steal a win late.
Jack Jones
Denver Nuggets -2.5
The San Antonio Spurs are coming off a loss to the Golden State Warriors last night. So, with the No. 2 seed locked up, it's no wonder that Greg Popovich has decided to rest his starters for this 2nd of a back-to-back against the Denver Nuggets.
San Antonio is expected to sit Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli and Boris Diaw tonight. While the Spurs have a nice bench, I don't believe they'll be able to hang with the Denver Nuggets tonight.
The Nuggets have had two days off coming into this game and will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. It's safe to say that they will be chomping at the bit to get back on the court tonight, especially with how young this team is. They will play for pride here.
The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Brandon Lee
Mariners -1½ +131
I really like Seattle to not only win but win comfortably tonight against the A's. Oakland just lost 3 of 4 at home against the White Sox and it figures to be a long season for the A's. Seattle on the other hand is a team that I'm expecting big things from in 2016. I really like the pitching matchup for the Mariners in this one, as they send out Taijuan Walker against Eric Surkamp. Walker didn't quite live up to the lofty expectations in 2015, but is primed for a breakout season. I look for him to dominate a weak Oakland offense in this one. The A's are just 8-17 in their last 25 during game 1 of a series and 11-23 in their last 34 road games.
Aaron Toller
Mariners -145
Great price to get Seattle at home with an all around better hitting lineup and a big mismatch at pitcher tonight. I expect Walker to be sharp and be dominate and Seattle offense to continue swinging a hot bat.
Dave Price
Charlotte Hornets -15
This is a big number to lay for the Hornets, but I'm not concerned about it tonight. That's because they have a lot to play for as they want home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Also, the Nets have obviously quit on their season. They are are resting two key starters in Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young. They have been awful without Lopez in particular. The Nets are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall, losing all six games by double-digits and by an average of 19.3 points per game. Brooklyn is also 0-10 in its last 10 road games while giving up 114.6 points per game in the process.
Alex Smart
Clippers +12
The Los Angeles Clippers are locked in as the no.4 seed entering the playoffs so resting the starters, is now a priority, and key cogs Chris Paul, Deandre Jordan , JJ Redick and Blake Griffin all expected to miss. Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz are desperate for wins, as a play off appearence is still a question mark. With the Jazz only losing two times in their L/7 at home, ( one against Golden State) I am betting home court advantage and an extreme need for victories, will propel them to a win in this spot, but it won;t come easily vs a side that is still deep enough to put up a fight in a place where they have won 7 straight times. I feel the situation does, favor the Jazz from a SU stance, but the linesmakers have over compensated, which leaves us with a viable option on taking the points.
Scott Rickenbach
Dodgers vs. Giants
Play: Under 8½
Yesterday's game flew over the total but this is still pitcher-friendly AT & T Park and there has been a bit of an over-reaction in the marketplace that has now driven this total up to an 8.5 in some shops. This is offering great value for the under. Lets not forget that the Dodgers hadn't given up a single run this season (in 3 full games) before yesterday's crazy 12-6 game. Now Ross Stripling takes the mound for the Dodgers tonight and he's earned this spot for a reason. Yes he has missed the majority of the last two seasons in his recovery from Tommy John surgery but he earned this spot in the rotation, instead of Carlos Frias or Zach Lee, for a reason. Dodgers management has put their trust in him for a reason and the Giants are likely to struggle here (as teams often do) in their first looks at a hurler. As for the San Francisco hurler tonight it is Matt Cain who earned the #5 starting spot in the rotation. Even with the significant time he's missed the past two seasons he still proved quite tough to hit in his home park. He's been solid in AT & T Park outings for years and, even in these last two shortened seasons for Cain he has held opponents to .255 and .205 in home outings in 2015 and 2014, respectively. His ugly lifetime record against the Dodgers is deceiving because he's compiled a 3.58 ERA against them in his career. I look for him to shut down LA again in this outing as well as he surprises all the doubters. He threw better in spring training too than what his numbers would lead you to believe. In 26 games as a road dog of up to +125 the past three seasons combined, the Dodgers under has come in 16 times. Also, the Giants under has come in 4 of 6 times when they are at home with a posted total in the 8 to 8.5 range...which is quite rare as this has only happened the six times since the start of the 2014 season.
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Cincinnati Reds plus the money against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and I'm not going to worry about listing the pitchers.
The Reds enter this Riverfront series on a three-game win streak, and will carry that momentum into this series-opener.
If there is one thing about pitching I can say, it's that something tells me the Pirates will be looking toward right-hander Gerrit Cole's first start of the season, tomorrow. It could take away from Francisco Liriano's performance today.
And while the Pirates rank fourth in the league in hitting thus far, the Reds have a top 10 ERA, with a 3.00 mark. With this one being at home, and the Reds being one of only five teams with an undefeated mark - including the Pirates - I think Cincy wins this one.
5* REDS