Free Picks for Tuesday, Friday, December 16th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
DREXEL VS. RIDER
PLAY:DREXEL +5.5
Drexel is off a tough loss, Rider off an exciting win. But I liked what I saw out of Drexel in their 72-71 loss to St. Joe’s. This is definitely a different Dragons team with the coaching change from Bruiser Flint to Zach Spiker. Drexel now runs the court similar to what Army did under Spiker and while this team is still very flawed, the energy level is high. One knock on Drexel is that they lack quality depth, so it’s possible they’re going to wear down in conference play.
But tonight they face a Rider team that is also playing fast this season, and is also very thin on the bench. Rider is off a wild win against Kennesaw State on Wednesday. The Broncs blew a double digit second half lead when the visitors started going nuts from outside. Rider got the lead back late and then nearly let it get away with a bad turnover. They escaped when a Kennesaw guy missed a wide open three.
Rider’s defense was not good in this particular game, and that could have much to do with them now being down to pretty much a skeleton bench. The fact the Broncs are on the quick turnaround from Wednesday following a peculiarly scheduled one-game cross country trip to Pacific indicates to me that the visitors should be the fresher side here.
There’s always the chance the Dragons could be hungover from the tough to swallow loss to St. Joe’s, but I think Drexel plus this many points is worth taking in what has a chance to be a pretty exciting game.
Brandon Powell
Blue Jackets vs. Flames
Play: Blue Jackets -120
Both of these teams are playing really good hockey at the moment, but Columbus has dominated the Flames on the road. They have not lost in Calgary since 2005. The Road team has won each of the last 6. The Blue Jackets are winners of their last 8 and are 8-2-2 on the road this season. Calgary, surprisingly, has not played their best hockey at home going 7-8. I expect Columbus to come out strong en route to another big road victory.
Brandon Shively
Pistons vs. Wizards
Play: Wizards +1½
There comes a time when it’s ‘buy low’ signal on a team. That’s the case tonight with the Wizards playing at home where they are listed as a small homedog to a basic pick em. The Wizards had won the previous 4 meetings vs the Pistons before falling last year at Detroit in a game John Wall did not play. Wall is playing at a high level as of late and has a 19.4 ppg career average vs the Pistons. Wall is averaging 26.9 ppg and 10 assist in 7 games this month.
The Wizards are 4-0 SU the last 4 home meetings vs the Pistons. They have been at least a 2 point favorite in these games and have won them by 4, 4, 12, and a 43 point win last year. The Pistons are only averaging 94 ppg their last 12 trips to Washington. Going back to 2009, they have only been a road favorite 3 times (2011-12) and they were only a -1, -1, and -1.5 point road favorite. My point is there is solid value here with the Wizards at this price.
Now, are the Pistons improved this year? The short answer is yes, but there are still flaws in their team and one of those is consistency. They are 6-9 SU on the road this year. While they have won their last 2 road games, beating the Timberwolves and Mavericks doesn’t merit a lot of credit.
The Wizards have been playing good at home lately. They have won 3 straight and 4 of their last 5 with the lone loss being vs the Magic. It was a tough spot for the Wizards who were playing on a back to back and off a 3 game road trip.
Detroit has a revenge game tomorrow night vs the Pacers. They are 0-2 this year on the road on the front end of a back to back when their next game is home.
Again, I think the value is there in this game. The value is present because of the Wizards shortcomings early in the season.
Jim Feist
North Dakota St at North Dakota
Pick: Under
An area rivalry game, which brings out intense defense for both teams. North Dakota State is on a 12-5 run under the total, including 7-3 under on the road. North Dakota State is also 20-6 under the total after a spread loss. These teams just met last week in a 74-56 game that sailed under the total.
David Banks
Mavericks @ Jazz
Pick: Jazz -11.5
The Jazz have been hot lately winning four of their last five games, the only loss coming to Golden State, owners of the NBA’s best record. Utah’s opponent on Friday, Dallas, is headed in the opposite direction. The Mavericks have lost three of their last four and are just 5-18 on the season. Along with Philadelphia, Dallas owns the worst record in the NBA thus far this season.
Part of Dallas’s problem is second-year pro Justin Anderson. The 6-foot-6 shooting guard out of Virginia had a promising rookie campaign, but his performance this year has been severely subpar. Anderson is averaging just under 20 minutes a game and averages 7.9 points and 3.8 rebounds. The Mavs were looking for more out of Anderson, but they will have to settle for the 20.6 points a game that leading scorer Harrison Barnes averages each night.
Dallas has struggled since the loss of veteran Dirk Nowitzki. In his 18th season, Nowitzki was averaging 12.2 points and 6.4 rebounds per game before an Achilles problem sidelined him indefinitely. The Mavs could use all the scoring help they can get. Utah is the best defensive team in the NBA. Seven-foot center Rudy Gobert averages 11.6 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per game as the Jazz give up just 95.5 points per game. Gordon Hayward, a 6-8 forward, is the leading scorer for Utah averaging 23.3 points per game.
Jimmy Boyd
Hornets vs. Celtics
Play: Celtics -7½
At first glance, this might seem like a big number for Boston to be laying at home against a quality Hornets team. However, I think the value is clearly with the Celtics in this one. Boston has lost 3 straight, all of which came with starting point guard Isaiah Thomas sidelined. Now Thomas is expected back from injury and it's Charlotte that will be missing their floor general.
Kemba Walker will sit this one out to tend to a personal matter. That's a huge loss for the Hornets, as Walker is their only reliable scorer at 22.6 ppg. Every other player on the team averages less than 14.0 ppg. Keep in mind Walker plays big time minutes, averaging 33.2 per game, so the chemistry simply isn't going to be there.
The key here is that Boston isn't going to take their foot off the gas because Charlotte is shorthanded. The Celtics need to stop the losing streak and know this is one they can't afford to drop with 5 of their next 7 on the road. It's also worth pointing out that Boston is the much fresher team here. The Celtics will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days, while the Hornets are playing their 4th straight on the road.
Bill Marzano
Mavericks at Jazz
Play: Jazz -11.5
I really like the Utah Jazz at home in this game vs the Dallas Mavericks...talk about two teams heading in opposite directions, these are the teams...the Jazz have won nine of their last 11 games overall while the Mavericks are just 1-11 on the road this year...the Mavericks are the lowest scoring team in the NBA averaging just over 93 per game and are even worse on the road where they average just 91 per game...the Jazz have been stifling on defense allowing just 93 points per game on their home court...Dallas is plagued by injuries and I look for the Jazz to run away with this game...the Jazz are 8-0-1 ATS their last nine games vs the West.
Wunderdog
Sacramento @ Memphis
Pick: Sacramento +6
Sacramento was embarrassed at Houston on Wednesday 132-98 as the Rockets shot a blistering 58.8 percent from the field. Now the Kings look to bounce back at Memphis, which is coming off a two-game series with the Cavaliers. The Grizzlies got blown out in Cleveland before winning at home the next night, however, the Cavaliers left their three top scorers, including LeBron James, at home to rest. Troy Daniels led the Grizzlies with 20 points and Marc Gasol contributed 17 points and 11 rebounds as the Grizzlies took advantage of Cleveland's .373 field goal percentage. The Kings are 9-2 ATS their last 11 games after a loss and 6-1 ATS when following an ATS loss. DeMarcus Cousins did not play against the Rockets but will be in the lineup tonight. Look for the Kings to atone for Wednesday's blowout.
Brett Atkins
The Hurricanes are well aware of what the Owls did their last time on court, as Florida Atlantic was able to shock Ohio State in Columbus, 79-77 in overtime as the +20 1/2 point underdog!
Can the Owls pull another "David vs. Goliath" shocker? Doubtful, but they are getting a ton of points, and I can see them covering again this Friday night.
Florida Atlantic is 4-1 against the spread their last 5 games on line, and they have covered 3 of 5 this season on the road.
Miami-Florida is just 2-5 for the season against the spread, and they have failed each of their last 4 lined games.
Going to side with the Owls plus the points to at least make it interesting tonight against the Hurricanes.
2* FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Bob Valentino
My free play is on the Chicago Bulls minus the point against the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls are set for their rematch in Chicago tonight, just 24 hours after the Bucks handed Chicago a 108-97 loss.
Time for revenge, as Chicago will return the favor on the back end of a home-and-home series.
Anyone who saw the game last night's knows the Bulls were not themselves and simply came out flat. That won't be the case tonight, as they'll be fired up on a Friday night at home, in front of a raucous crowd.
It doesn't help that Milwaukee has dropped five consecutive games at the United Center. I'll take the home team here.
2* BULLS
Brad Wilton
For Friday, let's play the Mavs and Jazz to make it Over the total.
This is one of the lower totals of the year in the NBA, and I think with both Dallas and Utah having the night off last night, they will be able to muster enough offense to get this Friday meeting Over the total.
The Mavericks have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the total, while the Jazzmen have followed 6 straight Overs with 3 straight Unders.
The first meeting of the year between the teams was a throwback game to the peach basket era, as the teams combined for just 178 total points and held Under the total.
Still, 2 of the last 3 series meetings in Salt Lake City have played Over the total, and 3 of the last 5 overall meetings between the teams have also landed Over the total.
This one is such a low total, I will play it high on Friday.
1* DALLAS-UTAH OVER
Chris Jordan
I'm ready to improve on this 19-7 run with free picks, as I jump into the NBA for Friday's free pick, after hitting the Denver Nuggets last night.
My free winner for Friday night is on Utah against the Dallas Mavericks, as I've enjoyed seeing the Jazz emerge after struggling with injuries earlier this season, and now step to the wood with a strong bench and deep roster.
Eleven different players have started two or more games for Utah this season, and every one of thos players are averaging at least 18 minutes on the court per game. That's a good thing, as they're now seasoned and ready for anything that's thrown their way.
Utah took care of Oklahoma City 109-89 on Wednesday night, as the Jazz outscored the Thunder 45-38 in bench points. As a team, Utah (16-10) ranks fourth in the NBA in field goal percentage (.468), and shot 42 of 72 (58.3 percent) from the field against Oklahoma City.
Dallas failed to slow the Jazz in a 97-81 loss on Nov. 2, and now, after being hit with a rash of injuries, it'll be tough to keep up in this game. Yes, Dallas has won 10 of the last 13 games with Utah overall, but it's he Jazz who have won two of the last three in the series.
3* JAZZ
BRANDON LEE
Lakers -2
Los Angeles has dropped 8 straight and fresh off a 10-point loss against the Nets and yet are favored here against the 76ers on the road. Head coach Luke Walton laid it on his team after that recent loss to Brooklyn and I think it's going to have a huge positive impact on this team going forward. As for Philadelphia, the perception here is they are going to be better now that they have Embid, Okafor and Noel all healthy for the first time. I just don't think it's a positive, at least not right now. Okafor and Embid didn't look comfortable last time out playing alongside each other and an even bigger problem is the 76ers don't have the talent in the backcourt to get them the ball in the right spots.
DAVE PRICE
Kings/Grizzlies Under 197
With all of their injuries, the Grizzlies have gotten back to their 'grit & grind' roots and it's been working. They have won 7 of their last 8 games overall despite not topping 96 points in 5 of those 8 games. They are scoring just 94.6 points per game in their last 5 contests. But the defense has been dynamite, allowing 90.8 points per game in their last 5. I don't expect either the Grizzlies or the Kings to reach 100 points in this game, so we're getting some nice value here on the UNDER on this 197-point total. Memphis is 8-0 UNDER in home games versus teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers this season. The UNDER is 7-2 in Kings last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 games overall. The UNDER is 15-5-2 in Grizzlies last 22 home games.