RAY MONOHAN
Dallas / Utah Under 186
Two of the slower teams in the NBA meet on Friday night and the Under here has some value. Dallas is by far the worst scoring offense in the NBA, as they put up just 93.2 points points per game as they continue to struggle every single night.
A lack of a big scoring threat and an outside shooting presence hurts this team. As for the Jazz, they are a slower working team too. They use a lot of the shot clock and will try to work the ball around instead of taking an early jumpshot.
Defensively, Utah is one of the best in the NBA which certainly doesn't bode well here for the Mavs. Utah allows only 95 points per game and that number shrinks to 93 when playing at home.
Some trends to note. Under is 7-3 in Jazz last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Expect a very slow paced game here, with both teams struggling from the field.
SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH -1½ +173 over Los Angeles
OT included. Not interested in spotting a half goal anymore. If we spot a half goal, we have to be up by at least one goal or we are going to lose anyway. If we are up one, the other team is going to pull their goalie, which will give us a great chance to cover the puck line with a much bigger takeback. We will therefore not be spotting -½ anymore and will lean to -1½ when playing the chalk and it begins here.
The Kings went into Detroit last night and defeated the Red Wings 4-1. To that we say, “Big deal”. Detroit has two regulation wins over their last 20 games. What’s more relevant is that Los Angeles gets dominated for stretches every single game. Againat Buffalo on Monday night, they could not get the puck off of several Sabres players, who continually swarmed the net. The Kings had a 2-0 lead in that game and lost 6-3. Recently, in four straight on the road, against Montreal, Ottawa, Winnipeg and Colorado, the Kings picked up one point out of a possible eight. They have three victories over their past nine road games and one was in Arizona while another one was in Detroit. The Kings have five forwards getting regular minutes that couldn’t even crack the lineup on most other teams and they also have weak goaltending. This is an offensively challenged team too and this is very simply not a good matchup for the Kings.
Pittsburgh is too quick, too skilled and too good. The Penguins are coming off a 4-3 win over the Bruins in a game they weren’t that sharp in. Previously, the Pens had won six in a row while outscoring the opposition 35-14. On November 3, Pittsburgh went into the Staples Center and lost in OT to the Kings. Marc Andre Fleury was in net and posted a save percentage of .889 that day. That won't happen here, as Matt Murray is confirmed. It was also the Pens fourth straight on the road and the tail end of back-to-backs after they defeated the Ducks 5-1 the previous night. We’re not saying that the Penguins have a score to settle here but they have lost three straight to L.A. and this year’s edition of the Kings is not like previous editions at all. L.A. is a fringe playoff team while the Penguins are a juggernaut. Throw in the goaltending mismatch and the fact that it is now Pittsburgh that is well rested and it all sets up nicely for the Penguins to thrive and let the Kings know who is boss.
COLORADO +100 over Florida
OT included. Boy, are these odds makers ever sharp. They had Florida and Winnipeg at a pick-em last night because for whatever reason, they knew the Panthers were live as hell and they were. That game went to a shootout, where Winnipeg needed Bryan Little to score on the third shootout attempt to send it beyond three rounds and he did. In the sixth round, Mathieu Perrault won it for the Jets. Now this game in Colorado is priced almost exactly like that one and we can assure you that Winnipeg is a much tougher out than Colorado is. That loss to Winnipeg in a game the Panthers had on their stick not once but twice may just be the thing that sends them to an irreversible frame of mind for this one. Florida’s two victories over its last 10 came against Vancouver and Detroit and they’ll now play their fourth game in six nights, third in four nights and tail end of back-to-backs. They may be forced to use James Reimer tonight, who has been awful all season and they’ll also play a team that is hungrier than they are.
Colorado has two wins in their past four games, one over Toronto and one in Boston. They also nearly beat the red-hot Flyers on Wednesday while limiting them to just 25 shots on net. The Avalanche are also better than their record suggests, Their 97.4 PDO is second last in the NHL, which means their shooting and save percentages are well below normal rates. The Avalanche are getting healthier now with and they also got a break when Semyon Varlamov was injured. That leaves the superior Calvin Pickard to be the #1 for now and he gives the Avs a much better chance of winning. The loser here hits rock bottom and we trust the Avalanche in this favorable spot much more than we can trust the mentally and physically drained Panthers.
ZACK CIMINI
Dallas vs. Utah
Pick: Utah
Can the struggling Mavericks play a spirited game against Utah? Earlier this season the Jazz toyed with the Mavericks on their home floor. In the matchup the Mavericks came all the way back from a steep deficit, only to see it balloon back up in the fourth quarter. The Mavericks are better defensively since then but are still a mess on the offensive floor. Look for the Jazz to run away here.