Free Picks for Tuesday, Friday, December 9th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Dave Cokin
San Jose vs. Anaheim
Play: San Jose +105
San Jose heads to Anaheim hoping to get its offense back in gear. The Shark attack has been sputtering somewhat lately in terms of actual production.
But I did see some positives from that offense on Wednesday night, even though San Jose was a home ice loser to Ottawa. The Sharks were the better team for most of this game, but ran into a goalie having a very good night. There’s really not much any team can do when the opposing netminder is stoning them and Mike Condon did exactly that on this night.
Perhaps the Sharks will enjoy a bit more success this evening against an Anaheim entry that has stumbled badly defensively in its last two games. In any event, I tend to like teams coming off games they probably played well enough to win, particularly if I don’t have to lay a price. That’s the case tonight for San Jose. I’ll grab the small dog price with the Sharks to scratch out a win tonight.
Jim Feist
Pacers at Mavericks
Pick: Under
Indiana is one of the best teams in the NBA at defending the three-pointer, third in the league allowing 33%. The Under is 19-7 in the Pacers last 26 games following a spread win. Dallas is Top 10 in points allowed, stuck with a shaky offense. And the Under is 5-2 in Mavericks last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
David Banks
Suns vs. Lakers
Pick: Lakers -2
The Suns are off to a rocky start in the 2016 season. They will face the Lakers in Los Angeles on Friday night. Phoenix is just 6-14 so far this season despite being one of the better rebounding teams in the league. The Suns are fourth in rebounding (45.6 per game) and eighth in scoring (106.3 points). Their problem lies in their defense (29th in the NBA).
The Lakers are off to a much better start compared to last season, but then anything was better than last year’s disappointing 17-65 finish. Los Angeles could be without point guard DeAngelo Russell, the team’s second-leading scorer (16.1 ppg). Russell was ruled out of Monday’s Lakers game with Utah. If he returns on Friday to play against the Suns, the Lakers have a much better shot at grabbing a victory. That is because guard Jose Calderon will be out roughly two to four weeks with a hamstring injury limiting the Lakers’ depth at the position.
Louis Williams (17.5 ppg) is the Lakers leading scorer. Young players like Julius Randle are giving L.A. a boost. Randle averages 12.6 points and 8.7 rebounds per game while this year’s first pick, Brandon Ingram has started five games and averages 8.1 points and 3.8 rebounds. The Lakers (10-12) are currently ninth in the Western Conference standings.
Brandon Lee
Lakers -1½
I know the Lakers are going to be a big public play here, but I just feel we are getting a ton of value on LA given their recent struggles. The Lakers come in having lost 4 straight both SU and ATS. However, those 4 games were all against quality teams in the Rockets, Jazz, Grizzlies and Raptors, with 3 of those coming on the road. This is a huge game for this young LA team at home in a prime time game on ESPN and are playing a Suns team that you simply can't trust on the road, where they are 3-10 on the season. Phoenix also plays no defense and are one of the least efficient offensive teams in the league, both recipes for disaster on the road. I think the Lakers take care of business here at home.
Jimmy Boyd
Timberwolves +2½
The betting public is going to be all over the Pistons here, as Minnesota continues to be a major disappointment and are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. I'm just not buying the fact that the Pistons should be a road favorite here. Detroit is just 4-9 SU & ATS on the road this season and are coming off a game where they managed just 77 points. Even playing against a bad team hasn't helped the Pistons on the road, as they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 away from home against a team with a losing record. Detroit is also a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 as a road favorite of 6 points or less.
Playing on no rest has actually been a good thing for the Timberwolves. Minnesota is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when playing on 0 days of rest. The most recent came on the road against the Hornets, where they won 125-120 at Charlotte as a 6-points dog.
We also find a great system in play backing the Timberwolves. Teams with a line of +3 to -3, who have allowed 105+ points in 2 straight games against an opponent that just played in a game where 165 or fewer combined points were scored are 29-7 (81%) ATS since 1996 with a perfect 4-0 ATS clip over the last 5 seasons.
Jack Jones
Hornets -6½
The Orlando Magic had a nice road trip recently in which they won four out of five games. But that trip wore them down, and they lost 87-117 at home to the Boston Celtics on Wednesday. I don't think they have fully recovered yet as this will still be their 6th game in 9 days.
The Charlotte Hornets have won five of their last seven and are clearly one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference this season. They are fully healthy right now and are coming off an 87-77 home win over Detroit on Wednesday. They just returned Marvin Williams to the lineup and will be a dangerous team at full strength moving forward.
The Hornets have had the Magic's number in recent meetings. Indeed, the Hornets are 5-1 SU & 5-1 S ATS in the last six meetings in this series. The last two were played in Charlotte with the Hornets winning by 14 and 8 points. I think we'll see a similar result here as the Hornets cover this 6.5-point spread against the fatigued Magic.
Mark Franco
Pistons at TWolves
Play: Pistons -2.5
Andre Drummond is one of the top centers in the NBA and the 23-year-old All-Star looks for his sixth consecutive double-double when the Detroit Pistons visit the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday. Drummond scored a season-best 26 points and collected 20 rebounds in Wednesday's 87-77 loss to the Charlotte Hornets and his 11 20-20 outings since 2012-13 are the most in the NBA. Drummond was 11-of-14 shooting against the Hornets while reaching 20 points for the fifth time this season. His strong reliable play has been a big factor in Detroit winning six of its last nine games to reach the .500 mark. Minnesota has dropped six of its past seven games and gave the Toronto Raptors a good fight for 3 1/2 quarters Thursday before succumbing 124-110. Point guard Reggie Jackson is averaging 11.7 points in his first three games since returning from a knee injury. Coach Tom Thibodeau has been disappointed with the defensive performance for most of the season and his squad is allowing an average of 114.3 points over the past seven games. The Pistons won both meetings against the Timberwolves last season. Minnesota is 2-14 when allowing 100 or more points. Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest. Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Favorite is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
3G-Sports
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -4
The Milwaukee Bucks, playing some of their best basketball of the season, try to wrap up their four-game homestand on a high note Friday night when they host the Atlanta Hawks at the Bradley Center. The Bucks just beat Portland and won for the sixth time in their last eight games to move two games over .500 for the first time this season. Much of that success can be tied to a massive improvement in Milwaukee's defense, which is the league's stingiest in terms of field goal percentage at 42.7 percentage. And while opponents are attempting an NBA-high 31 3-pointers per game, they make 31.8 of those shots, the lowest percentage in the league. Jason Kidd's is doing a great job this year and the Bucks have a deep bench. What a hot mess Atlanta is. After starting the season 9-2, Atlanta has lost 10 of 12, including failing to cover the number in its last five. When the Hawks were rolling well early, they beat the Bucks 107-100 as 5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Jason Kidd has his Bucks scrapping and playing a high level of team defense that leads the league by holding opponents to 42.7% shooting from the field. They've won and covered five of their last six, the only loss over that span being 97-96 to the Spurs. Look for the Bucks to keep it rolling tonight at home.
Dave Price
Bucks -3
The Milwaukee Bucks continue to lack respect from oddsmakers as only 3-point home favorites over the Atlanta Hawks tonight. The Bucks have won 6 of their last 8 games overall and are hitting their stride. Their two losses came to the Raptors and Spurs by a combined 7 points, which are two of the best teams in the NBA. The Hawks have lost 10 of their last 12 games overall and are playing without starter Kent Bazemore right now. The brutal schedule has taken its toll on the Hawks as they will be playing their 11th game in 18 days. The Hawks are 4-8 SU & 4-8 ATS on the road this season, while the Bucks are 8-5 at home. The Hawks are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games. Atlanta is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 Friday games. The Bucks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 1 days rest.
Rocketman
New York @ Sacramento
Play: New York +4
The New York Knicks travel to Sacramento to take on the Kings on Friday night. New York is 12-10 SU overall this year while Sacramento comes in with an 8-13 SU overall record on the season. New York is 8-2 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more in their previous game. Sacramento is 8-21 ATS last 3 years when playing in December. New York is scoring 104.3 points per game overall this year, 102.4 points per game on the road this season and 107.6 points per game their past 5 games overall where they are 4-1 SU. Sacramento is allowing 104.1 points per game overall this year and 105.3 points per game at home this season. We'll recommend a small play on New York tonight!
Brad Wilton
Friday night comp play is the Chicago Blackhawks at home over the New York Rangers.
Used New York last night as my first hockey premium play of the season, and you scored with the $9 winner. Gotta go against them unrested Rangers tonight, as they are still struggling along alternating wins and losses dating back to the middle of November.
Expect Henrik Lundqvist back in the net tonight after getting last night off, but The King has been looking a little slow of late, so I have no issue going against him, especially when the other team is the first place Blackhawks.
Scott Darling is expected to start in the net for a Chicago team that also has been struggling along of late, with just a 4-5 mark their last 9 games. Still, the Hawks have taken 2 of the last 3 from the Rangers, and they are catching the Blue Shirts off of a road game last night.
Rest and home ice makes the difference tonight.
Play is Chicago.
4* CHICAGO
Brett Atkins
Friday's comp play is the Spartans as the home dog against the Demon Deacons.
Both Wake Forest and UNC Greensboro enter at 7-2, but it is clear the ACC team has played the tougher schedule. Still, I can see the Deacs doing just enough to win this evening, but fail to cover.
UNC Greensboro is playing Wake Forest for the 6th time since 2009 tonight, as series results show the Demon Deacons having won each of the 5 previous encounters, but the Spartans having covered in the last pair of meetings, and in 4 of the last 5 meetings overall.
Based on the spread numbers in this series, let's take the points out for a spin and play the underdog to cover once again.
2* UNC GREENSBORO
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Friday is on the Creighton Bluejays, the 10th-ranked team in the nation, as it comes home with a 9-0 mark after knocking off in-state rival Nebraska on Wednesday.
Creighton is the only team in the country shooting better than 50 percent from the field in all its games, as the Bluejays average nearly 80 points per game. Tonight they take on a Lancers team that is 2-4 after losing to James Madison, 71-59 on Dec. 3.
This will be the Lancers' first game against a team ranked in the Top 25 since they played Georgetown in 2012, and I don't see it going too well.
Creighton coach Greg McDermott called Wednesday's win the best overall defensive effort by the Bluejays, and now to be coming home for a Friday night affair against a cupcake like this, the Jays are certain to celebrate with a big win. Creighton's defensive pressure will help force some of the Lancers' turnovers tonight.
And that translates into transition basketball. Through its first nine games, Creighton has one of the nation's most prolific offenses. The Bluejays are averaging 89.2 points per game (ninth nationally) while shooting 53.8 percent from the field (second) and 43.7 percent from 3-point range (fourth). Four Bluejays are averaging in double figures.
This will be too easy, as Creighton rolls.
2* CREIGHTON
Bob Valentino
Let's lay the points with the Detroit Pistons tonight, as they're going to jump all over the Minnesota Timberwolves, a team that can't seem to hold leads, and will be lost after last night's debacle at Toronto.
The short turnaround for tonight's home game against the Detroit Pistons is not going to end up well for the Wolves (6-16), who lost 124-110 at Toronto, the team's ninth loss in 11 games.
Though Detroit (12-12) was traveling yesterday, it enjoyed the night off after losing, 87-77, at Charlotte on Wednesday. And while I realize the Pistons have lost nine of their 13 road games this season, make note the team did win three straight road games before losing at Charlotte.
Overall, Detroit has won six of its past nine games, and it is a far better team than the Timberwolves at this point. This is a good spot for Detroit, since the Wolves have lost four straight home games.
Look for the Pistons to succeed on the offensive end tonight, as Minnesota has allowed 105 or more points in six straight games. The Wolves come in after surrendering the most they've allowed all season.
Take Detroit.
5* PISTONS