BRANDON LEE
Bulls -2½
Chicago comes into tonight's ESPN matchup against the Suns off an ugly 31 point loss at Golden State on Wednesday and I look for them to bounce back in a big way here. The loss to the Warriors came without Wade or Butler. While it's unclear if Wade will return, all signs point to Butler returning. That should be more than enough for the Bulls to win and cover this short number. Phoenix has been a free fall of late. They have lost 3 straight and are just 1-8 in their last 9 overall. It's also worth noting the Suns haven't won at home since they beat the Heat at home back on 1/3. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their lat 5 road games and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss by more than 10 points.
MIKE LUNDIN
Spurs vs. Pistons
Play: Spurs -4½
The Detroit Pistons have won four of their last five games, but considering the schedule it's not all the impressive. The Pistons have beaten up on New Orleans, Minnesota, Philly and the Lakers during that stretch, while losing 105-84 at Indiana.
Tonight they'll take on one of the elite teams in the league as the San Antonio Spurs will pay a visit to The Palace, and the Spurs are 4-0 ATS in the last four in the series. The Pistons are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning straight up record, and although they're coming off a 121-102 rout of the Lakers we can note that they're 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
Let's go with the Spurs to get the job done in Motor City Friday night.
JOHN MARTIN
Nuggets vs. Knicks
Play: Knicks -1
I think all of the media attention the Knicks are getting right now has them undervalued. It's all negative media attention, and I like backing teams like this because they almost always adjust the lines for it. The Knicks have to basically just win this game at home tonight now to cover this 1-point spread against the Nuggets. Denver is just 10-17 on the road this season and is dealing with a plethora of key injuries right now. Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried and Emmanuel Mudiay are all expected to miss this game. The Knicks will have their Big 3 of Rose, Anthony and Porzingis available. New York is 10-2 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog this season. The Knicks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 Friday games. The Knicks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss.
DAVE PRICE
Lakers vs. Bucks
Play: Bucks -5
The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks must turn around their season soon if they want to make the playoffs. They have a great chance to get that started tonight against the hapless Lakers, who are just 18-37 on the season after going 3-11 in their last 14 games overall. The Jabari Parker injury hurts, but Khris Middleton just returned and can fill in for him just fine. Middleton is actually a better defender than Parker and a better 3-point shooter, so it will help with spacing on offense and they'll certainly be better on D moving forward. The Lakers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. The Bucks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with Los Angeles.
JACK JONES
Pacers vs. Wizards
Play: Wizards -5
The Washington Wizards have won 17 of their last 18 home games. It should have been 18 of 18, but the Cavaliers were lucky and hit a game-tying 3-pointer at the buzzer via bank shot by Lebron James to force overtime in their last home game. I look for the Wizards to start a new winning streak here tonight against the Indiana Pacers.
The Pacers will come out flat here after facing Cleveland on Wednesday in their previous game. They didn't play the Cavs nearly as tough as they Wizards. They lost that game 117-132 at home as 3.5-point underdogs. There will be a hangover effect from that defeat here after facing the defending champs.
While the Wizards are 22-7 at home this season, the Pacers are just 9-16 SU & 9-16 ATS on the road. Their defense has been atrocious away from home, giving up 109.4 points per game on 46.5% shooting. That doesn't bode well for them considering the Wizards are scoring 110.2 points per game on 49.0% shooting at home.
Indiana is 3-15 ATS in road games after scoring 110 points or more over the last three seasons. Washington is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points this season. The Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The Wizards are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games.
BRYAN LEONARD
Warriors vs. Grizzlies
Play: Grizzlies +8
There has been one team in the league that has given the Warriors matchup problems this season, the Memphis Grizzlies. The Warriors have lost both meetings by margins of 21 and 9 points. Failing to cover the spreads by a combined 57 points! The Warriors are also in a back to back situation as Kevin Durant returns to Oklahoma City tomorrow.
Memphis could be a bit shorthanded tonight with Randolph being a game time decision. Regardless we will back the Grizzlies who have won 6 of 7 overall heading into play tonight.
JIMMY BOYD
Lakers/Bucks Over 218.5
I look for LA and Milwaukee to have no problem exceeding this high-total tonight. The Bucks lost Jabari Parker to a season-ending injury in their last game, which is a huge loss, but there's more than enough talent on this roster to take advantage of the Lakers lackluster defense. Los Angeles gives up a ridiculous 112.2 ppg on the road and don't figure to be all that interested in playing defense tonight, as they finished up 5-game east coast trip.
While I don't think the Lakers will play any defense, I do expect them to put up a big number offensively. LA comes in averaging 111.6 ppg over their last 5 and should be able to take advantage of the Bucks here. Not only has Milwaukee just lost Parker, but they are just getting back Middleton from injury and welcoming in the new additions of Hibbert and Hawes. That's a lot of moving pieces and good defense requires chemistry.
OVER is 11-2 in the Bucks last 13 off a loss by 10 or more points, 13-5 as a home favorite, 10-2 in their last 12 at home with a total of 210 or more and 10-2 in their last 12 against a bad team that's won between 25% to 40% of their games.
RAY MONOHAN
Hawks vs. Kings
Play: Hawks -2
The Hawks take on the Kings Friday and Atlanta minus this small spread has some value. The Hawks were ready to ship everyone off earlier this season, but since that rumor swirled, Atlanta has been one of the hottest teams in the NBA.
Atlanta sits 9 games above the .500 mark and has been a solid road team to back this season. Laying the small spread here against a Kings team that has struggled and that has just one real threat isn't a bad move.
Howard should be able to shut down Cousins, as the rest of this Kings team just isn't powerful enough to keep up.
Some betting trends of note. ATL are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games, and head to head ATL are 14-3 ATS in the last 17.
MATT FARGO
Nuggets vs. Knicks
Play: Knicks -2
The Knicks have become the laughing stock of the NBA starting with the Carmelo/Jackson rift followed up by the Charles Oakley incident on Wednesday. They have been underwhelming on the court as well as they have dropped three straight games and five of their last six to fall ten games under .500 on the season. With the fan reaction from Wednesday, this is the ideal spot to back New York as we should see an all-out effort tonight. The Knicks are in the rare role of home favorites and they have been solid by going 9-5 ATS and they are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a non-cover. Denver lost in Atlanta on Wednesday to make it three straight road losses and it is now 9-17 on the road this season. The Nuggets are pretty banged up right now as they are without three key players as Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried and Emmanuel Mudiay, three of their top seven scorers, are all out tonight. They have won just five of their 20 games this season as road underdogs and the Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
SPORTS WAGERS
MINNESOTA -1½ +186 over Tampa Bay
The Lightning have won two in a row over Los Angeles and Anaheim and while the victory over the Ducks was completely legit, the victory over the Kings was not. Actually, Tampa’s effort against Anaheim was a rare strong one for this group but one can expect them to go back to being the disinterested group they are on most nights. Against Boston, Ottawa and L.A. in three of its last four games, Tampa had 21 shots on net in each game. Only seven teams in the league have had fewer offensive zone face-offs than the Bolts, meaning they are usually starting in their own end. Against top-10 teams, the Bolts have a lousy four wins in 16 tries and three of those victories were at home. There is also a really good possibility that Tyler Johnson will miss this game, as he’s missed practices the past few days and the Lightning have called up a player (Erik Condra) “just in case”. Johnson is one of the few players on that team that brings energy and drive. He also centers the top line. The Lightning have three wins over their past nine games and at least one was underserving. With back-to-back victories, Ben Bishop is very likely going to get this call and that, too, works to our advantage because he’s the second best goalie on that team and owns one of the worst save percentages in the league.
The Wild are coming off a 4-3 OT loss to Chicago but it was the first time they lost to the ‘Hawks in eight games and it was also Minnesota’s first game back from a four-game West Coast swing. Playing on one day’s rest this season after a loss, the Wild are 7-0-1 but at home they are 5-0. Minnesota has scored three goals or more in 12 of its last 14 games and four goals or more eight times over that same span. Against top-10 competition, Minnesota has won 11 of 13 games and against top-16 competition it has a 21-6 record. We could go on and on about Minnesota’s dominance this season but numbers can get boring. Fact is, Minnesota is one of the top-3 teams in the league in every area, whether it be surface stats or analytical rankings. Coming off a loss and playing a team that runs around in its own end for far too many minutes over the course of a game, the Wild are in line to resume its dominance over all these mid-to-lower tier teams.
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT MERCY +7 over Oakland
Oakland has revenge on its mind here in a big way. Less than a month ago on January 13th, the Golden Grizzlies would suffer one of this year’s most embarrassing losses in all of college hoops. As an 18½-point underdog, the Titans would travel to Oakland and knock off the Golden Grizzlies by five points, 93-88. We cannot emphasize enough Oakland’s propensity to lose games against marginalized competition. The Grizz have been nagged by the bottom feeders of the Horizon League all season long. One need not look further than the Grizzlies five-point home defeat against Cleveland State as a 15½-point favorite, which came in succession after Detroit Mercy had pulled off the shocker. The market assessment of this Golden Grizzlies team as a whole has been off all season long. Despite Oakland owning a remarkable 18-7 record straight up, the Golden Grizzlies are just 10-12 ATS because they are spotting inflated points regularly and that is in play again here. Oakland enters on a three-game winning streak, thus causing those aforementioned, incredulous losses to be swept away in the process. The market may have forgotten but we have not.
Detroit Mercy is not a name synonymous with college basketball but it is in the midst of resurrecting a program that has been in existence for 111 years and that will attract high caliber players that aren’t recruited by the Michigan, Michigan State and Western Michigan’s of the world. The talent pool over the past few years has widened considerably and it is for that reason that these lesser known teams are capable of pulling off upsets and improving greatly. Detroit Mercy is one such team. Despite being 6-18 overall, the Titans are trying to build momentum entering the Horizon League tournament in March. Perhaps playing the 78th ranked out-of-conference strength of schedule (SOS) prepared the Titans to pull off some upsets, which included that aforementioned one against the Grizzlies. Incidentally, Oakland’s out-of-conference SOS was ranked 315th in the country. This is a giant rivalry game between two schools that are separated by just 26 miles. The Titans have a tremendously supportive fan base that will jam Calihan Hall for this one but it’s more than that. Mercy has proven is can compete. They have won two of their past three, which included a one-point win over Green Bay. The Titans also went into Valpo recently and lost by just seven and now they’re taking back seven at home against an overvalued team that is worse than the Crusaders. The market will combine the revenge factor with the records of these two and come up with a case for backing the chalk but the true value lies within this very live home dog.
RHODE ISLAND -4 over Dayton
The Rams are a bubble team worth keeping an eye on. Currently, the Rams are listed as one of the first four out according to bracket analysts. A win against Dayton will bolster their résumé and perhaps make a case for them to be one of the last four in. This would be especially true if Dayton managed to repeat as regular season co-conference champion or perhaps even better, that being the Atlantic 10 champion. Such a result may push Rhode Island’s RPI low-enough where quality wins become the difference maker between the Rams securing their first tournament appearance in nearly 20 years or having their bubble burst. This is a URI basketball team that owns a win over Cincinnati, the current AAC leader, who has just two losses this season. In addition, the Rams walloped Ohio Valley Conference powerhouse Belmont earlier this season so their portfolio speaks for itself. Currently, Dayton and VCU sit atop the A10 standings with a 9-2 conference record but URI is right on their heels with an 8-3 record overall in conference play. A win here puts Rhode Island in the driver’s seat. The Rams have a favorable schedule that bridges the gap between this game and a potential showdown with VCU in Kingston for the Atlantic 10 top spot on February 25th if the Rams were to win out. First thing’s first, however, as the Rams have to take care of the Flyers.
There are lots of reasons to believe such a feat can take place. These two teams have already met this season in Dayton, where the Flyers, as a one-point favorite, would win by a three-ball. The Rams led in the first half by as much as 10 points. Down the backstretch, Dayton would resurge but even when they took the lead, they could never truly put the Rams away. Now a rematch will take place with bigger stakes on URI’s home court, where they have enjoyed success and a true advantage all season long. URI is 11-1 in Kingston and it is safe to say, the arena will be rocking tonight. Dayton has made it to the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament in 2016 as a #7 seed and has made three consecutive appearances in the Big Dance dating back to 2014. Additionally, Dayton has gone fairly deep in two of their three consecutive appearances, making it as far as the Elite Eight in 2014. The market is more prone to back a proven winner this time of year than one that hasn’t appeared in the main event for 20 years. The point is that Rhode Island is being sold short here and that provides us with an opportunity to back one of the most starved mid-majors in the country. This edition of the Rams is talented and primed to play their biggest game in a very long time.
EASTERN MICHIGAN +105 over Akron
Some may rub their eyes when they see this line by virtue of Akron being the talk of the town in both the MAC and even on the national landscape. Akron sits as the ninth-ranked mid major club in the College Insider Mid Major Top 25. The Zips own a commanding lead in the Mid-American Conference standings, as they stand at 20-4 this season with a 10-1 record within the conference. The Kangaroo Kids were at one point riding a 12-game winning streak before it would be snapped in their first conference loss when they traveled to Ohio and were pelted by the Bobcats in a 95-80 loss. The Zips enter this one similarly priced, which reveals the danger of backing a team that looks like an easy victor. That may be but before you pull the trigger on the obvious, it might be wise to question why a team as renowned as the Zips are priced so affably against a basketball team that is just above .500 (EMU is 13-11, 5-6 in MAC play) on the year?
Simply put, the Zips are not as good as they appear to be. Ken Pom would back us up on this one, as the Zips are the LUCKIEST team in America, according to his analytics. Despite the enticing record and the sultry prognostication of them as the future MAC Champion and a #13 seed in the Men’s Basketball Tournament, the Zips are just a flip of the coin on the road. All four of the Zips’ losses came on the road this season, as they are 4-4 overall away from Akron. Mirroring our rationale for fading the Tribe of William and Mary yesterday, teams’ that do not excel in hostile environments are usually an excellent fade. Sure, we can grant the Zips a pass with their losses to Creighton and Gonzaga but the fact remains this is a team that lost at Youngstown State. When you look at three of Akron’s four road wins this season, it is worth noting that the margins were by four points or less. That includes a docket that consists of Central Michigan, Northern Illinois and Miami of Ohio. Central Michigan leads the MAC West currently, so once again we will chalk that up to a hard-fought win against a good opponent. However, Northern Illinois is another middle of the road team that is comparable to that of Eastern Michigan in that they are 14-10 and 6-5 in MAC play. Furthermore, Miami of Ohio is 9-15 overall with a 2-9 conference record and yet Akron had to scrap it out to ward them off. Akron escaping defeat has been a common trend overall. The Zips have won five of their previous nine victories by a margin of four points or less, regardless of where the fixture transpired. This is an outfit that has failed to cover in their previous four and overall owns an 8-12 record against the spread despite the far more captivating straight-up record. There is an old adage that says it is sometimes better to be lucky than good but Akron has abused this idiom to a prolific degree. Whether it’s now or later, we’re likely going to be the beneficiaries of this visitors misleading record.
Larry Ness
Indiana vs. Washington
Pick: Indiana
The Wizards and Pacers have both been climbing up the Eastern Conference playoff 'ladder' but this week, each team has been reminded by the Cavs as to just which team remains the East's 'big dog!" The Cavs ended Washington's 17-game home winnings streak with a 140-135 OT victory on Monday, while Wednesday, the Pacers saw their seven-game overall win streak snapped when the Cavs beat them in Indiana, 132-117.
The Pacers led 63-57 at halftime against the Cavs but fell apart in the third quarter by getting outscored 40-18! Indiana had allowied just 96.3 PPG during its winning streak but the Cavs scored 132 points, while connecting on 54.8 percent as a team. Forward Thaddeus Young (11.5 & 6.1) missed his third straight game with a spraind right wrist and the Pacers need him back, especially on the defensive end of the court.
While The Pacers ere humbled by the Cavs, the Wizards lost to Cleveland in one the year's best-played games, so far. The Cavs needed LeBron's turnaround, step-back, fadeaway three-pointer to bank in with 0.3 seconds left to force overtime. Still now word yet as to if LBJ called the bank. Anyway, Wednesday night, the Wizards seemed listless against the NBA-worst Nets in Brooklyn but managed to escape with a 114-110 OT win.
These teams have split a pair of games already this season (home team has been the winner each time) but note that the Pacers won both visits to the Verizon Center last season and that the Wizards are off back-to-back OT affairs. Take the points.
Power Sports
San Antonio vs. Detroit
Pick: San Antonio
For some reason, the Spurs seem to be consistently undervalued. Despite clearly being the second best team in the league, they are 30-21-1 at the pay window, which is the second best ATS record in the league. Compare that to the ATS record of the best team in the league, Golden State, which is just 25-25-1. The average line for a Spurs game is exactly four points lower than it is for the Warriors. Hence the discrepancy. It's certainly a discrepancy that can be exploited seeing as how San Antonio is 40-12 SU with an average margin of victory of 8.2 PPG, a margin higher than their average line of -7.7 PPG.
Over the L6 games, San Antonio has been far from dominant. They're only 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS. Perhaps that's why tonight's line in Detroit is so low. This will be the Spurs' third consecutive road game as they're on the annual "Rodeo Road Trip." Typically, the team has performed quite well on this annual trip. They've posted a winning SU record 13 of the last 14 years, going 82-35 overall. While this year's excursion got off a rocky start w/ an 89-74 loss at Memphis, the Spurs bounced back by beating Philadelphia 111-103. Note Kawhi Leonard did NOT play in the game at Memphis.
Detroit is off B2B wins here at home, but those were against Sixers and Lakers. So this will be quite the step up in class. The Pistons have lost four straight times to the Spurs, including 96-86 in San Antonio earlier in this season. While the Pistons have won four straight at home, all were against teams w/ losing records. I remain concerned about the team's overall shooting, especially tonight where you can expect a steep decline from the Lakers game. San Antonio is one of the top defensive teams in the league.
Teddy Covers
Indiana vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
“We just wanted to thank all of the Wizards fans or giving us one of the best homecourts in the NBA. The atmosphere last night was amazing, the best since we’ve been in DC…we’re in this together so we’re counting on you to continue that tremendous support on Friday when we look to start a new streak…”
The Wizards weren’t sharp at Brooklyn following their loss to the Cavs; lucky to escape with an overtime win. Head coach Scott Brooks: “Two things happened tonight: We gambled because we wanted to go for steals for layups, and we didn't box out. Brooklyn got offensive rebounds, and that was the game. That gave them a chance every time we had the lead by 10 to 12 points. ... We're glad we got the win, but we still have to play much better heading into our home floor."
Forward Markieff Morris: “Confidence, everybody's confidence is high. Everybody's playing with a lot of swag. We just have to keep continuing to play together and playing defense." Bradley Beal: “We're a totally different team (from the beginning of the season). In every way. Our confidence, our swag as a team. Everything is a lot better.”
So, we’ve got a hungry, motivated Wizards team that has been severely undervalued for months; coming off a home loss and a subpar showing. When hungry and motivated , there’s a case to be made that the Wizards are the second best team in the East right now, ahead of Boston or Toronto in the pecking order. Indiana is still a notch or two down compared to the top four in the East.
The Wizards took the Cavs to OT, deprived of victory only thanks to a banked in LeBron desperation 3 at the buzzer. The Pacers played the Cavs in their next game, and they were never in it after halftime; suffering a 15 point home loss despite 50% shooting overall , 52% from three point range and 85% from the free throw line; about as well as they can play offensively. There’s a class difference between these two squads right now that is simply not reflected in this relatively short pointspread.
David Banks
Chicago @ Phoenix
Pick: Chicago -5
On Friday night, the Bulls head to Phoenix where they look to get another win on their four-game western road trip. The Suns (16-35) own the worst record in the Western Conference. Chicago needs a win to stay ahead of Detroit in the Eastern Conference standings. How well the Bulls play may come down to Jimmy Butler. The Bulls star may miss games with Sacramento and Golden State on Monday and Wednesday.
The Suns don’t do much well as they are 29th in the league in points allowed per game (112.6), but the all-Kentucky backcourt is fun to watch. Point guard Eric Bledsoe leads Phoenix with 21.4 points and 6.2 assists per game. Devin Booker, who like Bledsoe played collegiately at Kentucky, adds 21.2 points per game. After those two, the Suns’ talent level drops off. Phoenix rebounds fairly well (sixth in the NBA), but their frontcourt doesn’t score well on the offensive end.
The Bulls (25-26) enter the week sitting in seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings. Head coach Fred Hoiberg’s team has lost three of its last five games and would like nothing more than to come home from their West Coast road trip with at least two wins. Phoenix has lost nine of its last ten games and, on paper; this is a game that Chicago should win.