Free Picks for Friday, February 17th, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
VALPARAISO AT OAKLAND
PLAY: VALPARAISO PK
It’s the second time around for Valparaiso and Oakland. The Grizzlies got the outright underdog win in the first meeting, as they went wire to wire in what turned out to be a somewhat shockingly easy 78-66 win. It wasn’t a fluke, as Oakland was clearly the superior team for virtually the entire 40 minutes.
I’m not ruling out more of the same tonight, it’s absolutely a possibility. The one standout memory from that game was how much more athletic the Grizzlies were. I have to tell you, I was stunned by how much quicker Oakland was at every aspect of the game. If there isn’t some adjustment made here by the Crusaders, it could be deja vu all over again. (My first Yogi Berra reference in some time. I miss that guy.)
I would lean toward Valpo having an improved game plan this time. If that’s the case, the Crusaders should be okay. They’re a good bet to stifle Oakland’s offense if they avoid turnovers and limit transition. The Grizzlies were a great outside shooting team last year, but this edition sure isn’t.
I think that last note is the overall analysis in microcosm. If Valpo forces Oakland to launch from beyond the arc, the Crusaders will likely win this game. I am not strong enough here to make this a personal service play, but I like the revenge angle and what I expect from the matchup to lean in Valparaiso’s direction.
Scott Spreitzer
Pennsylvania vs. Brown
Play: Pennsylvania -2
Both teams are just 2-6 SU in Ivy League play, but in our opinion the Quakers should be a bigger road favorite than they are on Friday night. Penn has won two straight games, playing better on the offensive end, while slamming the door on defense. In fact, they not only made about 55% of their FGA last time out, but also held Cornell to 14 first half points. With the offense scoring a few more points of late, they catch a break tonight against Brown's shaky defensive play. Brown has allowed opponents to make half their shots on the season, while giving up nearly 78 ppg. And we expect Penn's A.J. Brodeur and Matt Howard to dominate the glass in this one. Penn lost 82-70 to Brown last month, suffering through a 4 of 19 night from the 3-point line, while getting outscored 24-16 at the FT line. No chance to overcome those numbers, but they do have a chance to gain a measure of revenge tonight. The Quakers are on a decent 6-2 ATS run when laying less than seven points and we'll back them here.
Jim Feist
Columbia vs. Harvard
Play: Over 138½
Columbia has lost two in a row and has allowed 87, 78, 70 and 61 points the last four contests. Columbia is 13-6 over the total on the road and 13-6 over after a defeat. Harvard is clicking on offense, scoring 87 and 75 points the last two games. And the Over is 8-3 in the Crimson's last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Art Aronson
Penguins vs. Blue Jackets
Play: Blue Jackets -116
Seems like a good spot to pull the trigger on Columbus. If this was a seven game series, would we take the Blue Jackets over the Penguins? Probably not. However, from a situational stand point this one sets up great for the home side. first off, Pittsburgh won 4-3 in OT over the Jets at home just last night (a game that it led for most of the way, only to then cough up the lead, before tying it late and notching the victory in the extra frame). Clearly the Pens are going to be tired tonight in the second game of the back-to-back. Columbus has had a night off after crushing the Leafs 5-2 and will be eager to avenge a 4-3 OT loss of its own in Pittsburgh just two weeks ago. All things considered, we think that COLUMBUS offers pretty good value in this spot.
Braxton Myles
California vs. Stanford
Play: Stanford +3½
This game should be a great one and a very close game at that. I would normally take California in this one but with California having a player who is a big part of their offense probable for Fridays game I love Stanford to take this one. Stanford is 8-4 SU this season at home and should be tough to beat there, with Stanford coming off two tough losses on the road I look for them to get back on track coming back home against a not healthy Cal team. Stanford is coming into this game 2-0 ATS in this series when played at their home court in the last 3 seasons. I am going all in on Stanford in this one for Fridays game and you should too!
Marc Lawrence
Princeton vs. Yale
Play: Yale +1½
Edges - Bulldogs: 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS home in League games following a SU favorite loss. Tigers: 6-12 SUATS last 18 games here. With the Bulldogs two games back of Princeton for the top spot in the Ivy League chase, we recommend a 1* play on Yale.
SPORTS WAGERS
Colorado +235 over CAROLINA
OT included. It’s not easy to pull the trigger on the Avalanche, especially if you had them last night in Buffalo (a 2-0 loss) like we did. Against the team that allows the most shots on net in the entire league, Colorado only mustered 23 last night. The Avs will now go back to-back and will also play their fifth road game in seven days after losing five straight and 19 of its last 22 games. The Colorado Avalanche are easy pickings that the opposition loves to see on their calendar. Can we make a case for them? No chance but we can easily make a case to fade the favorite and that is what this wager is all about.
The Hurricanes are coming off their bye week and by now regular readers of this section will know what that means. It means they are vulnerable. Thus far, teams coming off their byes are now 2-9. We’ve also noticed that the goaltenders on the teams coming off a bye are the least prepared player on the ice. Last night, Peter Budaj of the Kings looked awful. Chad Johnson on the Flames was yanked in Calgary’s return, James Reimer of the Panthers was yanked upon their return and Steve Mason of the Flyers was also yanked. What do all those goaltenders have in common? They are all backups, former backups or not in the upper tier of goaltenders and you can absolutely, 100% add Cam Ward to that list. Ward’s save percentage of .904 is one of the weakest in the league and when he’s in goal, Carolina is always in jeopardy of losing. So once again the fade is on against teams coming off a bye and we’re not going to let up because it’s the Avalanche. Incidentally, when the Islanders came off their bye, they hosted the Avalanche and lost so it could happen.
Florida +116 over ANAHEIM
OT included. Do you want to see domination? If so, watch the replay of the Wild and the Ducks from this past Tuesday. In perhaps the most flattering score of the decade, Anaheim won 1-0 despite playing the entire game in its own end. The Ducks did not belong on the same ice as the Wild that day. That said, it is never wise to put too much emphasis on one game but it goes a little deeper than that. The Ducks just played six road games in 14 days while covering over 6000 miles in the process. They return home tonight from an exhausting trip and chances are they won’t be sharp. The Ducks have been outshot 37-23 and 39-22 respectively over their last two games. There are not many teams in this league that have had as many weak efforts as Anaheim has had this year and perhaps it has something to do with their difficult traveling schedule. When the Ducks are good, they’re really good but when they’re focus or determination is lacking, they become extremely beatable, as we trust they’ll be tonight.
Let’s assume for a moment that the Ducks are not flat at all. Should that be the case, they are still in big danger of losing here because the Panthers have become a force and will remain as one as long as they stay healthy. Florida is coming off a 6-5 OT victory in San Jose on Wednesday. They were not sharp in that game after being off for three full days following a 7-4 victory in Nashville the previous Saturday. We can almost assure you that the Panthers will be much better tonight than they were on Wednesday. Florida has scored six goals or more three times over its last six games. They have recoded 37 shots on net or more in four of their last six and it all coincides with their three top players all being healthy and playing at the same time for the first time this season. Florida has won six of its last seven. They have won three of four against the West with only loss occurring against the Kings when they, the Panthers returned from their bye week. This is a determined, talented and confident intruder that is worthy of getting behind in this very favorable spot.
SPORTS WAGERS
RICHMOND +5½ over VCU
The VCU Rams have been on the national radar after six straight NCAA Tournament appearances, including the Final Four in 2011. One could argue the Rams are the poster boys for mid-major college programs, but their high profile has them overvalued nearly every time they play. Casual bettors may not have heard of many of their opponents but they know who VCU is. The Rams are again rolling through their conference schedule with an 11-2 record but with their work nearly done, the Rams don't have to kill themselves the rest of the way.
The Richmond Spiders are just two games back of the Rams in the Atlantic 10 standings but an at-large bid by way of a conference championship looks to be their only way into The Tournament. Tonight the Spiders play their biggest game of the season against their biggest rivals in-front of a national audience, as this game with VCU will be carried on ESPN2. Being on ESPN is a big deal for any school but for a mid-major program like Richmond, it might as well be the Super Bowl. A great example of this was BYU at Pepperdine just eight days ago. Pepperdine won outright, 99-83 as a nine-point dog. While it's just one game, it is an example of how a home dog can rise up when the national cameras are rolling. While many teams rely on the three-point shot, the Spiders are actually ranked 13th nationally in two-point shooting percentage (55.4%). Richmond moves the ball well too, as its 62.3% assist per fields goals made is 14th in the country. The Spiders have dropped four straight to VCU over the last two seasons but that only increases the points being offered here and thus, the value. The Spiders are in good form by winning four of their last six including three straight at home. They also figure to be the more determined and focused group here, as the Rams wait for bigger and better things.
STANFORD +135 over California
The California Golden Bears had their five-game win streak ended by #6 Arizona on Sunday. While there's no shame in losing to a ranked team on the road, that result is not going to help catapult Cal into NCAA Tournament contention. The Golden Bears are a bubble team in search of signature wins. Cal has had five opportunities to face ranked competition this season, but failed to cash in on any of those opportunities. The Golden Bears have one chance left before the conference tournament to make an impression on the Selection Committee, which is at home against #8 Oregon next Wednesday, which has to be at the very least in the back of their minds and maybe the front.
It would be understatement to declare that the Golden Bears and the Cardinal have no love lost. The feud between these institutions is one of the most personal and bitter rivalries in all of college sports. We have said it before and we will say it again, in rivalry games you can expect the unexpected. In the previous two fixtures that transpired in Palo Alto, Stanford was the victor. As long as Coach Dawkins is at the helm for Stanford, he brings a breadth of expertise and practical experience of how to win at high levels. It is worth noting that the Cardinal got off to a red-hot start this year when they began their campaign with a 6-1 record. Along the way, Stanford beat some reputable basketball teams, including Weber State, Seton Hall and Colorado State who have emerged as the top dog in the Mountain West. Since that start, the Cardinal has gone 6-12 and thus depleted their stock in the process so now would be the time to buy low. Though the Cardinal have played .333 ball, they demonstrated a propensity to come in under lofty numbers against some excellent basketball teams, as they are 3-0 ATS against UCLA, Arizona and Kansas. Additionally, this is a basketball team responsible for an outright home victory against Utah.
The Cardinal are just 4-9 in conference play this season. Their only shot at The Big Dance will be through the Pac 12 tournament but there is still some fun to had before the end of the regular season. The Cardinal are in a great position to spoil the tournament hopes of their conference brethren on the bubble. Stanford has won just one of their last four games. On paper it doesn't look very good but a closer look shows the Cardinal are playing in close games against quality competition. Two games ago Stanford was tied 67-67 at #6 Arizona with 1:55 remaining, but the Cardinal didn't hit another basket in a 7-point loss. Last time out, Stanford held a 69-68 lead at Arizona State with 37 seconds left, but again gave up seven straight points to lose another heartbreaker. While the market sees defeats, we see a well-coached team that is a minor tweak or two away from pulling off some upsets as opposed to a team that is losing all the time. The kicker here is once again based on the bitter hate these two have for one another and in that regard, Stanford has nothing to lose whatsoever but they can achieve great satisfaction from being the team that puts the Golden Bears on the outside of the bubble looking in. That’s huge motivation and reason enough to get behind this undervalued squad taking back a price at home.
Brandon Lee
California vs. Stanford
Play: Stanford +3½
The Cardinal come into this game having lost 5 of their last 6, but note that 4 of the 5 losses came on the road. Stanford did have an impressive 81-75 win at home over Utah during this stretch as a mere 2-point dog. Much like the case with Cal here, the betting public was all over the Utes in that game. I see a similar outcome here. While Stanford is just 8-4 at home this year, Maples Pavilion is no easy place to play. Just ask the Golden Bears. Cal is 3-16 in their last 19 trips to Stanford. I also don't love the spot for the Bears in this one, as this is their 3rd straight on the road and they are fresh off a crushing loss at Arizona. I just don't see Cal being sharp here and I expect a big effort from Stanford on their home floor.
Ray Monohan
California vs. Stanford
Play: California -3½
Cal invades Stanford on Friday night and the visitors laying the points has some value.
California continues to build a solid tournament resume, sitting at 18-7 on the season. This is one of those games that won't help their resume, but can only hurt it if they fall.
They've been dominant in the month of February, entering play 14-4 dating back to last season and 7-0 this year. The Cardinal just aren't powerful enough to keep up here.
Some trends to note. Golden Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Pacific-12. Golden Bears are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games following a ATS win.
Expect Cal to really push the issue here and control the tempo of this one.
John Martin
Columbia vs. Harvard
Play: Harvard -8
Harvard has owned the Ivy League going going 6-2 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in eight games this season. The Crimson still trail Princeton in the standings and need to keep winning to have any chance of making the NCAA Tournament. They'll be motivated tonight to avenge a 62-65 loss at Columbia in their first meeting this season. The Crimson are holding opponents to just 59.8 points on 37.4% shooting at home this year. Harvard is 9-1 ATS after winning two of its last three games over the past two seasons. The Crimson are 6-0 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.
Jack Jones
Kent State vs. Akron
Play: Akron -8½
At 22-4 overall and 12-1 in conference play, the Akron Zips are head and shoulders the best team in the MAC this season. I look for them to make easy work of Kent State tonight, which is just 14-12 overall and 6-7 in conference play.
The Zips have a tremendous home-court advantage. They are a perfect 13-0 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by an average of 15.1 points per game in the process. They have won four straight home meetings with Kent State, including the last two by 14 and 9 points, respectively.
I think the fact that the Zips have failed to cover five of their last six against the spread actually has them a bit undervalued coming into this game. And the Golden Flashes have been overvalued for quite some time, going just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Akron is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread over the last three seasons. The Golden Flashes are 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Kent State is 4-12-2 ATS in its last 18 road games overall.
Jimmy Boyd
Richmond +3½
I really like the value here with the Spiders as a dog at home against the Rams. VCU comes in T-1st in the A-10 at 11-2, but if you have followed this team at all, you know they are fortunate to not be lower in the standings. The Rams had two of the most unlikely wins of the season. Had it not been for fans storming the court early, they would have lost at St. Bonaventure. Instead they win 83-77 in OT. The very next game they pulled off a gimmick in-bounds play with 0.4 seconds left to draw a foul and win the game 54-53 at George Washington.
If VCU loses those two games, they are sitting here with an identical 9-4 record in the A-10 as Richmond. The Rams would also be coming in having lost 4 straight conference road games, as they lost their previous two before the fluke wins at Fordham and Davidson. Two teams that currently have losing records in the A-10. It's also worth noting that Richmond proved they can hang with the Rams, losing by just 7 on the road at VCU on 2/1. A game in which they had the lead in the 2nd half.
The Spiders are 9-1 ATS this season after covering the number in their previous game, while VCU is 0-6 ATS this in road games against teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots/game and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as a road favorite.
Power Sports
Kent State vs. Akron
Pick: Kent St.
I'll maintain the notion that while Akron is clearly the best team in the MAC this year, they've also been quite lucky. While the Zips continue to win, they're doing so by close margins and it's starting to catch up at the betting window where they're just 1-5 ATS their L6. Earlier this week, they were backdoored on a last second layup by Toledo. That final basket made the score 71-65. Akron was a 6.5-pt favorite.
Four of the Zips last five wins have been by six points or less. They now have 10 such victories this season, most of them coming in conference play. They are a very impressive home team (won 30 straight!), but are just 3-6 ATS here this season. Therefore, I wouldn't want to get caught laying this kind of a number as they get set to host rival Kent State.
Kent State is off a close win of its own Tuesday as they outlasted Miami 76-72. That was a nice bounce back from a poor showing at Toledo last Saturday. The Golden Flashes have also won three of their last four MAC road games. Like Akron, Kent St has covered only one of its last six games. But they are getting points and in a rivalry situation, I naturally lean to the dog. The Flashes average 77.8 PPG, so it will be difficult for Akron to gain any distance here.