Brandon Lee
Lakers +11½
Los Angeles is worth a look as a double-digit dog at Boston Friday night on ESPN. The Lakers are starting to play better, despite the fact that they are just 1-4 SU in their last 5. LA has covered 4 straight. The Lakers will be on no rest after last night's game at Washington, but this is a deep team that is well-equipped for this spot and there's a little extra motivation any time you play on national TV. Boston comes in having won 5 straight, but are not blowing teams out. Only one of those wins came by more than the spread here and they are just 3-5 ATS in their last 8. Not to mention they could still be without two key pieces in Bradley and Olynyk. Celtics are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after 4 or more consecutive wins and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games.
John Martin
Pacers vs. Nets
Play: Nets +7
This will be the 4th and final meeting between the Nets and Pacers this season. The home team has won the first 3 meetings with the Nets upsetting the Pacers 103-94 as 6-point home dogs in the lone matchup in Brooklyn. I think they're capable of pulling the upset again here in the finale given how poor the Pacers have been on the road all season. Indiana is 8-16 SU & 8-16 ATS in road games this year. The Nets are hungry for a win after losing 7 straight coming in, but 5 of those losses came by 8 points or less, so they have been competitive. Indiana is 3-11 ATS in road games off a win this season. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Dave Price
Wolves vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons -4½
The Minnesota Timberwolves are coming off a 97-125 road loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. I think they could suffer a hangover here off that ugly defeat against the defending champs, and Andrew Wiggins' former team. The Timberwolves are just 7-16 SU & 8-15 ATS on the road this season. The Pistons are a solid 13-10 SU & 12-11 ATS at home this year and beat the Pelicans by 20 at home last time out. The Pistons are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with the Timberwolves, winning by 27, 25 and 10 points, or an average of 20.7 points per game.
Jack Jones
Dallas vs. Portland
Play: Portland -5½
The Portland Trail Blazers are starting to play up to their potential now that they have gotten healthy. They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming to the Warriors by a final of 111-113 as 6-point home underdogs.
The Dallas Mavericks are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers from what they've done here of late. They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating the likes of the Spurs and Cavs along the way. But they aren't going to be able to sustain this level of play with their make-shift roster.
The Blazers want revenge from a 96-95 home loss to the Mavs in their last meeting this season, which followed a 105-95 Blazers road win in their first meeting. "We owe them one," Portland guard Allen Crabbe said. "We're definitely looking forward to that game. We'll be well-prepared."
Dallas is 0-8 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last two seasons. Portland is 17-6 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days over the last two seasons. The Blazers have had the last two days off and will be ready to go tonight.
Ray Monohan
Houston Rockets -6.5
The Rockets are right back at it on Friday as they welcome in the Chicago Bulls. Here, the Rockets have value. Houston had a giant collapse Thursday night at home against Atlanta and getting a chance to come right back is actually a plus.
Houston plays with extreme pace and will certainly give this slower Bulls team fits.The difference maker Friday night? Houston C Clint Capela. He matched his career high of 22 pts Thursday and is averaging 14.8PPG over his last 6.
Some trends to note. Rockets are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss. HOU are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Fri. games. CHI are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 Fri. games. Bulls are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 1 days rest.
The Rockets are going to come out with fire. They want to erase last night quickly and this is the perfect spot and team to face.
SPORTS WAGERS
Edmonton +131 over CAROLINA
OT included. Carolina had a really impressive performance coming off the break after losing five straight going into it. The ‘Canes defeated Philadelphia on Tuesday, 5-1 and they allowed a mere 16 shots on goal. Thing is, coming off a layoff, one can never really predict how teams’ will respond and the Flyers were downright flat. While we take nothing away from Carolina and understand how good they are, they still lost five games in a row before the break while allowing 23 goals against during that span and therein lies the problem. The Hurricanes have controlled the shot counter and continue to do so but it does not lead to enough victories. The ‘Canes rank fourth in the NHL in Corsi For percentage and 17th in goals for per 60. However, the biggest problem in Carolina is the confounding move to bring back goalie Cam Ward. There hasn't been a more baffling love affair in hockey than the one between Hurricanes management and Ward, who hasn't posted an above-average save percentage since 2011-12, yet somehow continues to start games. Until they address that problem, the Canes are a big risk to lose every time they take the ice. Great underdog, yes but a terrible favorite. If Eddie Lack goes tonight, even better.
Edmonton is 0-2 since the break and didn’t score a goal in Nashville last night after they were soundly defeated by Minnesota on Tuesday, 5-2. However, the Oilers outshot Minnesota, 43-35 and did the same to the Preds last night, 31-27. Aside from losing two straight, rumors out of Edmonton today suggest that Jordan Eberle is on the block. The Oilers also play on Super Bowl Sunday in Montreal. All of the above suggests the Oilers are up against it here but we’re not going to be influenced. Is it time to panic? Hell no. Edmonton has been resilient all season long and has built up a reasonable cushion in the Pacific Division because of it. They’re playing hard and they just ran into a couple of hot goaltenders since coming off the break. The Oilers have the best player on the ice and the superior goaltending. Throw in a pretty nice tag and we’re all over it.
N.Y. Islanders -1½ +279 over DETROIT
OT included. The Red Wings are 6-0 in shootouts so we’re not interested in +105 should the game go into OT but we are interested in the Islanders having a one or more goal lead late in the third period. Should that come to pass, we’ll be in great position to cash half this ticket. Thus, we are going to split it up and play the following:
NY Islanders -1½ (alternative puck line) +279 for 1 unit
NY Islanders +101 for 1 unit.
The only reason that Detroit remains on the margins of the playoff race is because of said shootouts. If they were 3-3 instead of 6-0 in the breakaway contest, its uphill climb would even be more difficult than it is now. The Red Wings have lost four in a row and has only won 14 games in regulation to this point. They sit 22nd in the NHL in Corsi for percentage, dead last in power play percentage and 21st in 5-on-5 save percentage. The Wings are a cold team with inferior goaltending coming into this one while the Islanders are red-hot.
The Islanders could turn out to be the feel good story of the year. Their arena doesn’t want them, Brooklyn has not embraced them, they were sitting in the basement for a good portion of the season and also fired their coach recently. Hell, when they get kicked out of Barclay’s, we have to wonder where the big white car will go. Picking up 13 out of a possible 14 points over their last seven games, the Isles aren't going quietly. While fans were frustrated to see the likes of Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen walk last offseason, New York has found ways to create offense, even without much contribution from winger Andrew Ladd, who was supposedly brought in to replace them. However, Ladd is heating up and playing well at the moment. In goal, Thomas Greiss was given the reins after Jaroslav Halak struggled and he is proving to be a legitimate starter, posting a .928 save percentage. The Islanders are coming off a 3-2 victory over the Capitals. Playing the 5th roughest ranked schedule in the league, the Islanders are a very respectable 10-12 against top-10 and 14-14 against top-16. They’ll take a big step down in class here when facing a Red Wings’ squad that has mustered a mere 22, 26, 21, 25 and 20 shots on goal in five of their past seven games. The Islanders are staying out of the box, they’re winning frequently and we doubt their quest to make the playoffs will be stalled here.
SPORTS WAGERS
BROOKLYN +7 over Indiana
Buying-low and selling-high is a thing we champion to the fullest extent. In the case of the Indiana Pacers and the Brooklyn Nets, we have two teams with contrasting stocks. Currently, the Pacers are riding a four-game winning streak so its stock is higher than it should be. Contrarily, the Nets are 1-9 in their previous 10, losing their previous seven in a row. Immediately, those results can easily dissuade action on the Nets while encouraging many to hop aboard the Pacers.
Essentially what this does is allow Brooklyn to come in under-the-radar with a low floor and a very high ceiling. While the Pacers have won the last two against Brooklyn this season in Indy (covering in both occasions as well), the Nets defeated the Pacers outright in Brooklyn in October of this season when the Nets closed as a six-point home pup to defeat the Pacers by nine. Despite the prevailing emphasis of Indiana’s overall hot-streak coupled with the Nets owning one of the worst records in the NBA, the market has a hard time backing a team that is going so bad but we do not. What is most noteworthy here is that the Pacers and the Nets own nearly identical records against the spread (Indiana is 21-26 ATS, while Brooklyn is 21-25 ATS) despite the Pacers being 17 games better than Brooklyn. What this says is that the Pacers have a tendency to be overvalued and contrarily the Nets have been busting up parlays all season long in comparison to their abysmal portfolio of performances overall.
This is typically what we see with bottom-feeding teams. Since no one wants a piece of them, they’re often taking back a friendly price tag and this is what it in play here again. While Brooklyn has won only nine games this season, seven of them came at the Barclay’s Center. Despite the Islanders playing in this same building, in which we called a morgue previously, the facility has had an uncanny way of influencing the Nets to pick up some impressive wins. Most notably, the Nets took down a fully-stacked Los Angeles Clippers team in double overtime on November 29th and they also have defeated teams such as Charlotte and Denver as 6½ and 4½ point pups. Although the Pacers have won their previous two on the road, the Pacers are 8-15 overall away from Indy. Given the fact that the Pacers have been so shaky away from Indy, they are no position to be spotting this many points to anyone and that includes the Nets. Big time overlay and we’re on it.
SPORTS WAGERS
COLUMBIA +3 over Yale
Anything goes in rivalry games. When said encounter bears significance by virtue of conference positioning, the intangibles are primed to be through the ceiling. Both Columbia and Yale are well in the mix for the Ivy League race, as both stand at 3-1 in conference play and half a game behind the current table-topper, Princeton, who remains undefeated at 3-0 within the Ivy League. Currently the Ivy League is virtually anyone’s for the taking, as five teams remain within 1½-games of each other. Princeton sits at the top with a 10-6 record overall, Yale and Harvard stand half of a game back at 11-6 and then comes Columbia locked in a three-way tie with a 9-8 record overall. Trailing behind the quartet? Cornell at 6-13 by a conference game overall.
The Lions in 2015 were in the mix for the Ivy League hardware before Yale would emerge as the champion and continue on to pull the upset of Baylor in the first round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. Those accolades give the favorite more credibility in the market than the dog does. For Columbia, this fixture is an opportunity to build some momentum heading into some enormous matches on the horizon next week against Princeton and Harvard. On the year, Columbia is 5-4 at home and they own a win over the defending America East champion, Stony Brook to kick off the 2016-17 campaign. Nevertheless, the Bulldogs have won four of their previous five against the Lions and have also gone 4-0 ATS in those four victories so given their propensity for success, the Bulldogs set up as a savory road favorite here. We urge chalk buyers to beware because in three of these four scenarios, the Bulldogs were a favorite and in two of those three situations they were spotting just a point. In addition, Yale had less to prove in these scenarios as well, as they weren’t the defending Ivy League champion with one of the standout upsets of the 2016 Men’s Basketball Tournament.
We’re not even sure the visitor warrants being the chalk here with their 4-6 road record. While Yale may bode almost all of the statistical advantages in this contest, they are sloppy with the rock, thus, turnovers remain a serious hindrance. Morningside Heights will be rocking in support of the Lions to wreak havoc upon these invaders. With a grisly nine-point defeat at the lowly 8-16 Bryant Bulldogs out of the NEC (one of the country’s worst conferences), this Bulldogs team is by no means impervious to a let-down, especially against a team with heightened motivation to beat them.
Will Rogers
Rhode Island vs. Davidson
Pick: Davidson
The set-up: The 14-7 Rhode Island Rams will travel to North Carolina to take on the 12-8 Davidson Wildcats in A-10 action on Friday night. The Rams are 6-3- in league play while the Wildcats are a game worse at 5-4.
Rhode Island: Expectations were high in Kingston for this year's Rams, despite coming off just a 17-15 season last year. The Rams have a deep backcourt, led by two quality players in Matthews (15.0) and Terrell (13.1). Up front, the 6-7 Martin (14.8 & 6.5) and the 6-9 Iverson (9.8 & 7.6) are the best performers.
Davidson: The Wildcats finished 20-13 last year, the eighth time in the last 10 years head coach McKillop has led the school to 20-plus wins. Davidson hs nowhere near the depth of Rhode Island, led by PG Gibbs (21.8-3.8-4.4) and the 6-8 Aldridge (21.6 & 7.6). The Wildcats come in on a little bit of a roll, looking for a 5th win in in their last six games.
The pick: The Rams are just 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 road games, so the play is on the home team.
Bruce Marshall
Yale at Columbia
Pick: Columbia
Columbia showed it means business in this year's Ivy race with its recent win vs. Harvard, with four Lions scoring in double digits. Now, Columbia gets its chance to atone for a pair of losses vs. LY's senior-laden Yale Big Dance qualifier. Even after graduation depletion and the loss of returning high scorer G Makai Mason due to a preseason foot injury, the Eli have not dropped off the map. But the host Lions have received some big efforts lately from 6-10 sr. Luke Petrasek (scored 31 in recent win at Cornell) and frosh G Mike Smith (25 in the other win over the Big Red).
Buster Sports
Yale at Columbia
Play: Yale -3
The Yale Bulldogs head to New York City tonight to play the Columbia Lions. Yale has been playing some nice basketball of late and are 9-2 SU for their last 11 games. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs last years IVY champ, they have lost a bunch of parts from the team that beat Baylor in last years tournament. In saying that they are in 2nd place in the conference standings, tied with Harvard and tonight's opponent Columbia. The Lions have been playing well themselves so far this year but Yale has owned the Lions and they seem to have the much better team overall. Yale is only a 3 point favorite tonight and we will be happy to lay the points here. Backing our selection is the fact that Yale are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings between the clubs and the fact that the Favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between the clubs.
Vegas Butcher
Chicago Bulls +6.5
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Houston is in a b2b and 3in4 spot. Chicago is coming off a confidence-building win at OKC and I like their chances in this spot. Harden shot 39% from the field last year against the Bulls, as clearly Jimmy Butler's defense was effective against him. Hopefully Butler is 'on' his game tonight again, and an inefficient Harden should keep the Rockets from building a large lead. I expect a close game.
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Phoenix Suns +4
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The Kings are decimated with injuries. Ray is out, Temple is set to miss the next few weeks, and Afflalo has an illness. Kings just came back from a long road-trip, and I think they could come out flat in this one. Suns are well rested after playing 4 of their last 5 at home. I'll grab the points in this one.
Dave Essler
Ball St -2
I'm not going to overlook the obvious in this game. Ball State crushed these guys at Buffalo this season, and normally we'd think payback, but not on the road. Both teams like to play quick - so there won't be a battle for pace, and both teams have a relatively similar bench in terms of depth. But, Ball State is the better team. They've won six of seven and haven't lost at home since January 7th. Buffalo is a capable team, but perhaps a tired team. Last week they play two brutally tough one-point road losses then played a game that saw 191 points against CMU - that whole time Ball State has BEEN at home. In Conference play Ball State shoots 77% from the line while Buffalo shoots 64% - that's a game changer, especially at home. In MAC play Ball State has the #1 interior defense, so I don't expect Buffalo to take advantage of THAT, and Buffalo shoots under 30% from behind the arc. Buffalo has the better "overall" defense, but Ball State has more ways to score - what works in Buffalo's favor is their SOS - which is why it's only a short number. What works Ball State's favor is they're playing up tempo, something they hadn't done in previous years, which is also why Buffalo had a tough time with them earlier. This should be a very good "under the radar" game to watch, and one Ball State puts away late at the line.
OC Dooley
Buffalo / Ball State Over 155.5
While Ball State has a pair of players ranked in the Top 100 nationally in OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING, the star player of Buffalo is coming off a TWENTY SEVEN point scoring effort which sets us up for a high scoring affair. Host Ball State prefers launching long range "three point" shots and they often get "second chance" opportunities due to the aforementioned offensive rebounds. This Buffalo/Ball State "series" is 13-4 OVER in the past seventeen matchups including this year when Ball State traveled to Buffalo and pulled off a 92-77 upset lighting up the scoreboard. In the past TWO DECADES when "revenging" a loss where the opponent put at least 85 points on the scoreboard, the Buffalo Bulls have gone 11-2 OVER in ROAD setups such asd this. Meanwhile when facing an opposing offense that attempts on average at least 21 different THREE POINT launches per game, the Ball State Cardinals have played NINE IN A ROW "OVER" the total
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Iona Gaels, as I refuse to put a premium tag on this God-forsaken team right now. I haven't been on the right side of the Gaels much this season, so until so, their games will be complimentary. Tongiht I think laying the number with them is the right move, as they should annihilate the Rider Broncs.
The Gaels have a nice little win streak going, finall, as they come into this one after a 69-66 overtime win over Saint Peters on Jan. 29.
Iona, which has covered eight of its last 10 Friday night games, has won five in a row, three by double digits. And two of the wins were on the road, at Manhattan and Siena.
The Broncs are in after a win of their own, but they've still lost five of their last seven.
Iona has won seven of the last eight meetings, and covered four of the last six. I'll take the road chalk in this one, as the Gaels roll to the win and cover.
4* IONA