Free Picks for Wednesday, Friday, January 27th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
GRIZZLIES AT BLAZERS
PLAY: GRIZZLIES +1
Portland has managed to finally win a couple in succession, but the Blazers are having a rough season and making the playoffs might be a challenge for this entry. They might have enough to edge out Denver for the final spot, but I don’t think anyone is looking at this team as one who could suddenly surge come playoff time.
The Grizzlies are in much safer territory as far as getting to the post-season is concerned. The question is whether Memphis can make a second half run and climb to that #4 slots, which would get them a home court edge for the opening round.
For me, the bottom line as far as tonight goes is Portland’s shabby record against winning teams. They’ve defeated only six +.500 teams all season, and I think that’s a reasonably telling stat as to the quality of this year’s Blazers.
Memphis hasn’t been all that sharp lately. But they are off a good win against Toronto in a game in which they were down a couple of guys who are expected to be back in uniform tonight. The spread on this game is right around pick ’em, so it’s a win and cover scenario and I’d rather be on the Memphis side tonight.
Jim Feist
Grizzlies vs. Blazers
Play: Under 207
Memphis likes a slower pace, #26 in the NBA in scoring, third in points allowed. Memphis is on a 4-0 run under the total, 5-0 under against the Western Conference. Portland plays its best defense at home, 8-3 under the total here. And the Under is 7-2 in the Blazers last nine games following a spread loss.
Art Aronson
Brooklyn at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -14½
The Nets come in off a 109-106 home loss to Miami on Wednesday, a deflating setback after they led for almost the entire game, only to then fall apart in the final moments. The Cavs though have hit the panic button after falling for the sixth time in eight games in a 116-112 OT setback at home to Sacramento on Wednesday. A date vs. the hapless Nets is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, note that Cleveland already has two victories in the series this season. Brooklyn averages a decent 105.8 PPG, but allows a league worst 114.7. The Nets are also 27th in the league in three point shooting at 34.1 percent. Despite the recent slide, the Cavs still enter this one ranked fifth overall on the offensive end at 109.7 PPG, while ranked 17th on the defensive end in allowing 105.1. Note that Cleveland is second in the NBA in three point shooting at 38.5 percent. Also note that Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning SU record, while Cleveland is already 4-1 ATS this year as a home fav of 12.5 points or more. Lebron James and company have no excuses today, they’re the defending World Champions and the Nets are the worst team in the entire league. We think a blowout is in the cards, consider the CAVALIERS on Friday night.
Tony Karpinski
Grizzlies vs. Blazers
Play: Over 207
Portland has been able to score at will - whenever they please especially over the last several games. The Blazers are playing some tougher than typical ball right now, the Grizz are in for some trouble. At home, Portland has had some great play from their backcourt, in particular - and Memphis isn't going to be able to keep them in front. Memphis scoring has been pretty inconsistent with scoring only around 99/game and defending the deep ball has been a weakness - both areas that are going to burn them. Portland has been putting up points and getting good looks - not good news for Memphis, at home Portland has been much tougher to defend.
Mike Anthony
Charlotte Hornets vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks +2.5
Though this selection might seem a bit scary at first, take a closer look and you will see the Sixers have all the underpinnings for a great effort on Friday night. This is a team that lost to Houston earlier this year 88-115 at home in a 27-point loss. The 76ers have been RED HOT and just beat Milwaukee on the road as an 11.5 pt underdog. One would have to think that this Sixers team wants to show that they are not the same team that lost to the Rockets earlier this year on November 14th. This is a Sixers team that believes in the process, who has quietly covered a slew of games, 8-2 straight up over their last 10 and who has beaten solid teams such as the Raptors by 5, Milwaukee on the road, Charlotte, New York and Minnesota. This is a Sixers team that faces a Houston squad with revenge, with Houston having Indiana on deck in their next game and at home on a Friday night where the crowd will be electric in Philadelphia.
Brandon Shively
Sacramento vs. Indiana
Pick: Indiana -4
This is more of a play against the Kings rather than a play on the Pacers, but Indiana checks into this game with some strong historical trends in their favor also.
For Sacremento, they are playing their 5th consecutive road game and have 3 more after this. Their road game tomorrow at Charlotte has a stronger revenge situation as the Kings and Hornets played into 2 OT earlier this year and Sac lost a tough one by 1 point. I don’t think they will totally overlook Indiana, but this is a huge trap game and the Kings are thetype of team that I think will fall into the trap.
Sacramento just beat Cleveland in Overtime and beat the Pistons as a 6 point road dog. That makes 2 straight up wins as a road underdog.
NBA road underdogs are 2-13 (13%) SU since when coming off back to back road underdog wins with the most recent being a road dog of 10+ points and facing a team off a win, like the Pacers.
Indiana played last night but they are 45-17 (72.5%) SU since 1995 with no rest playing at home and off a road win. That is straight up and not ‘ATS’, but I feel this line is short and the spot is just too bad for Sac. The win last night broke a 3 game losing streak for the Pacers and they are 12-2 SU and 9-3-2 ATS as a home favorite off a road win that ended a 3+ game losing streak.
The Kings don’t win 3 games often. They are used to losing as they were on a 5 game losing streak before these 2 dog wins. Sacramento is due for a let down and still has a tough road schedule ahead of them.
Another red flag is that both of the Kings wins are phony as Cleveland and Detroit had a higher shooting percentage from the floor. I expect the Pacers to pull away late as Nate McMillan has been preaching to his team to play the full 48 minutes. They do it here for the home crowd.
Jesse Schule
Brooklyn at Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland
The defending champs are struggling, coming into tonight's home game versus Brooklyn as losers of three straight. This looks like a "get right" game for Cleveland, hosting the worst defensive team in the NBA. Brooklyn is allowing an average of 114.7 points per game, and has lost 14 of it's last 15 overall. They lost 10 of those 14 games by at least 10 points. Cleveland has won both meetings with the Nets this year by a combined 28 points. They beat Brooklyn by a score of 119-99 at home in December. LeBron James has been doing a lot of talking lately, and he's been very critical of the organization, as well as his teammates. "We gotta be better, that's all," James said. "We know we're going to get everybody's best, so we just gotta be better." I expect James and the Cavs to take out their frustrations on an inferior opponent here, taking the Nets behind the wood shed for an old fashioned whupping!
Jason Sharpe
Columbia -8 over Dartmouth
Dartmouth has struggled this season starting the year off with a 0-9 record before finally getting their first win. This is a team in transition this year with a new head coach running the show. Columbia also has a new head coach this year, but they look to be a few levels ahead of Dartmouth right now. The Lions are playing at a much faster pace this year, and it looks like they're getting used to it with 3 wins in their last 4 games. They beat Dartmouth both times last year by 17 and 19 points overall.
Indian Cowboy
Philadelphia +8 over Houston
Though this selection might seem a bit scary at first, take a closer look and you will see the Sixers have all the underpinnings for a great effort on Friday night. This is a team that lost to Houston earlier this year 88-115 at home - a 27-point loss. One would have to think that this Sixers team wants to show that they are not the same team that lost to the Rockets earlier this year on November 14th. This is a Sixers team that believes in the process, who has quietly covered a slew of games, 8-2 straight up over their last 10 and who has beaten solid teams such as the Raptors by 5, Milwaukee on the road, Charlotte, New York and Minnesota. This is a Sixers team that faces a Houston squad with revenge, with Houston having Indiana on deck in their next game and at home on a Friday night where the crowd will be electric in Philadelphia. Let's roll with the Sixers as a fantastic home dog with a great deal of revenge.
Wunderdog
Brooklyn @ Cleveland
Pick: Brooklyn +15.5
Brooklyn is showing plenty of fight, coming off a close loss to Miami, 109-106, as center Brook Lopez scored 33 points. Over the last four games they also covered at Charlotte as a double-digit dog and won 143-114 at New Orleans as a +10 dog. They are a big dog again to a slumping Cleveland Cavaliers team that has lost six of eight. Cleveland has lost the last three games by allowing an average of 119.3 points. The Cavaliers are on a 2-10 ATS run, as well as 18-38-2 ATS against a team with a losing record.
Zack Cimini
Wizards at Hawks
Play: Wizards +4
Perhaps no team has been less talked about that has had to endure a complete overhaul from last season than Atlanta. The Hawks traded away Shelvin Mack, lost Al Horford/Jeff Teague in the off-season, and recently traded Kyle Korver. Korver's lost presence is a bigger void than anticipated, as the Hawks have found themselves in steep early deficits recently against the 76ers, Bulls twice, and were blown out by the Pistons and Clippers. Grab the momentum of the Wizards to take care of business Friday.
Nelly
Iona + over Siena
Iona and Siena sit tied at 6-4 in MAAC play despite the contrasting overall records. The conference statistics paint a clear offensive edge for Iona but a defensive advantage for Siena ahead of the season’s first meeting between these teams with the matchup at Iona set for early February for these rivals that sit just over two hours apart by car. Monmouth looks very clearly like the best team in the conference yet the resume for Siena is not hampered down by a loss in that matchup as the team’s haven’t met yet while Iona’s 18-point road loss vs. the MAAC leaders is taking a toll on the numbers. Siena has won five of the last six games but outside of a narrow home win over St. Peter’s it has been a softer run in the schedule. Siena is one of the nation’s worst 3-point shooting teams connecting at just over 30 percent while turnovers have also been an issue for the Saints on offense. Iona meanwhile is a fantastic shooting team from nay distance including hitting over 77 percent at the line which should come in handy in a potentially close game. Seven of Iona’s 13 wins have come away from home and while Siena only has one home loss all season it was a double-digit loss vs. the only top 150 team they have hosted.
SPORTS WAGERS
Dayton +5 over VCU
These two teams played for the A-10 tournament championship two years ago. They met in the regular-season finale last March with a share of the regular-season title on the line. They meet again here in Richmond for the first of two matchups in the last five weeks of the regular season. Again, a share of first place is up for grabs. While we don’t generally like to get involved in marquee matchups because the lines are so tight, we trust we’re getting inflated points here in a game the dog has a great chance to win outright. The inflated points come by virtue of the Rams great home record and current form. The Rams have won their last three home games against Massachusetts, George Washington and La Salle by 17, 30 and 38 points. They are 9-1 at home, losing only to Georgia Tech by a score of 76-73 in overtime on Dec. 7. That’s nice but Dayton is also beating up on the weaker A-10 teams and its 67-46 victory over Saint Louis in its last game will attest to. VCU has 15 wins in 20 games but its best victory came against whom? Princeton by 11? Mid Tennessee State by three? LSU by 11 way back on neutral floor in November? The Rams out-of-conference schedule ranked 124th. Prior to its blowout of La Salle, VCU lost 69-63 at Davidson and 69-67 at Fordham. The loss to Fordham, which ranks 206th in the RPI, is especially damaging to VCU’s résumé. Dayton ranks 29th in the RPI.
The Flyers out-of-conference schedule ranked 71 st in the country. Dayton is at its best when it’s shooting a lot of free throws. The Flyers rank 36th in the nation in free-throw rate, according to KenPom.com. That stat reflects a team’s ability to get to the line. That bodes well when taking back points in a big game and after shooting just 67% from the foul line this year, Dayton turned its most accurate performances of the season in its last two games, making 21 of 26 (80.8) percent against Richmond and 17 of 21 (81.0) against Saint Louis. What’s also important to note is that the Flyers have won games when their shooting has been poor but that’s not who they are. They are a much better shooting team than they’ve shown thus far and they play outstanding defense too. Right now, the Flyers are shooting with confidence. Playing a tougher schedule than VCU, Dayton has won three in a row, eight of nine and 13 of its last 15 games. With four seniors that have a combined 93 wins under their belt, Dayton also has the advantage of knowing it can win at the Siegel Center. It beat the Rams 59-55 in its last game there in 2015. “It helps to understand what the environment is like,” Dayton coach Archie Miller said. The Flyers figure to be ready here and they’re just too dangerous in this spot to be giving points to.
OAKLAND -7½ over Wisc-Green Bay
What we have here is an opportunity to back a short-priced favorite by virtue of said team’s fall from grace over the span of the 2016-17 season when playing the role of the favorite. The Golden Grizzlies have looked like bronze teddy bears at times this season and now we get them at a reduced price because of it. In back-to-back games recently, Oakland would lose on its own floor against both Cleveland State and Detroit Mercy. At that time, the two aforementioned intruders had not won more than 12 games combined and even now both teams have only won one game combined since earning victories against the Golden Grizzlies. Oakland was spotting 18½ to Detroit Mercy and lost by five points. Against Cleveland State, Oakland was spotting 14 points to the Vikings and would lose by 11. As a favorite, Oakland has only covered once in its previous five. Most recently, the Grizzlies would fall as a 3½-point favorite at Wright State. Queue Green Bay, the defending Horizon League champion who enter on an 8-2 run in their previous 10. In this situation, taking the enticing points seems like the academic move when all these factors are taken into consideration.
Very rarely do we see the public adore a pooch this much and when they do, if often showcases that it could be a trap. That is especially true when said dog is a team that may bolster more recent accolades compared to that of their adversary. What we have here is a classic case of a buy-low and sell-high opportunity. The stock on the Phoenix is soaring while the stock on the Golden Grizzlies is depleted. Our position remains the same in that the results have more influence on the market than anything else. We are much more interested in other variables than results to find true value and trust we found some here via the odds makers own admission. Indeed the Grizzlies lost to Cleveland State but they were a 14½-point favorite. Precisely one week later on January 23rd or four days ago, Cleveland State went into Wisc-Green Bay and the odds makers made the Phoenix just a 6½-point favorite, which is eight points less than the 14½ that Oakland was asked to spot that same team a week earlier. Again, results influence the market, which is very evident here. The Grizzlies are behind Green Bay in the Horizon League standings by one game (Valparaiso is in first), thus, they are not about to take this foe lightly like they did Cleveland State and Detroit Mercy. February is around the corner and this is the time of year that teams’ get serious. This is truly a case of the proverbial poisonous apple if we ever saw one. Don’t bite.
Will Rogers
Quinnipiac vs. Monmouth
Pick: Quinnipiac +14
The set-up: The 8-12 Quinnipiac Bobcats travel to the OceanFirst Bank Center to take on the16-5 for Friday night play in the MAAC. The Bobcats are just 5-5 in league play while the Hawks again look like the league's best team, sporting an 8-2 record.
Quinnipiac: The Bobcats saw their modest two-game winning streak snapped on Monday, losing 84-74 to Iona. Quinnipiac has a solid group of guards, led by Dixon's 16.8 PPG. However, he's joined on the perimeter by Kiss (12.4), Oliver (9.0) and Harris (7.1) plus a pair of 6-9 players are up front, Daniels (11.4 & 5.2) and Smith (7.5 & 5.6). The Bobcats' Achilles' heel has been a defense allowing 80.3 PPG to rank 326th in the nation.
Monmouth: The Hawks became last year's Cinderella darlings but when they were beaten in the MAAC tourney, Monmouth was left out as an at-large selection by the NCAA committee. Four of five starters are back, losing only forward Jones (10.4 & 6.3). The key returnee is 5-8 PG Robinson, who is averaging 18.2-3.5-5.2. Guards Seaborn (15.3) and Hornbeak (10.5) plus 6-10 center Brady (9.8 & 6.4) the team's "Core Four." Monmouth enters off its sixth straight win, after defeating the Fairfield Stags 91-49 this past Sunday.
The pick: Clearly, Monmouth is the superior team but while the Hawks are sub-.500 ATS at 7-9-1 on the season, the Bobcats check in at 11-4-1 ATS on the season, going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games and 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs MAAC opponents! Take the points with Quinnipiac.