Free Picks for Wednesday, Friday, January 6th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
GRIZZLIES AT WARRIORS
PLAY: WARRIORS -13.5
Unlike last season when they were basically all out to win every game big, this year it’s a case of picking spots to play the Warriors as heavy chalk.
I think this is one of those spots. Golden State should be up for this game, as they got their teeth kicked in at Memphis last month. Memphis was up 61-38 at halftime and it was a blowout from start to finish. I suspect we get a pretty intense effort from GS tonight as that was a humiliating defeat.
The Warriors had only three in-season revenge games last year and got the job done each time. They’ve had just one spot this year and beat the Lakers by 43. Memphis is a decent enough team, but I believe they’re in trouble tonight. I’m laying the lumber with the Warriors in this game.
Sleepyj
Boston -12
I think we got an all out romp here tonight...Boston won't let Philly get close in this one...Boston has been playing great basketball now that they are healthy...Celtics have won 8 of the last 10 games and they have been scoring a ton of points in games now...Philly has some serious health issues and Boston off a days rest will play some defense here tonight..I expect some of the starters for the Celtics to rest a bit, but Philly will need to use up the bench players rather heavy in this one as well...This line seems rather large, but Boston is by far the better team...Both teams are coming off back to back wins, but Boston gave up 100+ in both of those wins...Being at home I expect the defense to pick up here and Boston to keep the hammer down tonight.
Ben Burns
Maple Leafs vs. Devils
Play: Devils +106
We're getting the Devils at an underdog price but they could easily be favored. Consider the following. The Leafs are 8-12 on the road. The Devils are 10-6 at home. That includes a 5-4 win in this season's earlier meeting. (The Devils were laying -145 for that one.) Including that result, the Devils are a perfect 5-0 the last five times that they hosted the Leafs, a streak dating back to 2014. (They were laying a minimum of -129 for all five games.) The Devils outscored the Leafs by a combined 19-9 margin in those games.
The Leafs had their winning streak snapped last time out, while the Devils check in off back-to-back wins. They won those games by a combined 6-1 score, too, most recently a 3-1 win at Raleigh on Tuesday. The Devils, 5-2 (+3.4) when playing with two day's rest in between games, are a solid 10-7 (+3.6) against sub-500 teams. Again, when you think about it, they could easily be favored. Take a look at the "home dog" in this one.
Mike Anthony
Minnesota vs. Washington
Play: Over 210
Washington will do what they have been doing all year long, look to get production from their backcourt - from a variety of sources. Dishing 14 dimes, and 46 pts/game for Washington their starting Gs won't stop that scheme here. But matched up against a Minnesota team that gets stronger throughout as the game goes on, will be a slight challenge. Sometimes Andrew Wiggins can hang his shots a little - leaving himself open for tighter defense he has been completing only 44% of his shots this season. The Wolves don't knock down a lot from behind the arc very much, unless the team falls behind, and the Wizards's perimeter D will be too difficult to handle. Look for combined total score of points to be around 216-222.
Frank Jordan
Houston Rockets vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Houston Rockets -5.5
Houston had a big lead against Oklahoma City, but Westbrook had other thoughts as he willed the Thunder all the way back putting in 49 points, but needed over 50 as the Rockets hit a couple of free throws to win 118-116. Houston improves to 28-9 as they hit the road to Orlando. The Magic are under .500 at 16-21 and coming off a loss last time out. Orlando is 7-12 at home, but 7-6 against the West. Houston is 13-6 on the road and 8-3 against the East this time. Orlando simply doesn't have anyone that scores at the rate Harden does nor as a team can the Magic score with Houston. The Rockets score 114 points per game while the Magic are under 100 a game. Look for Houston to blast off from three point range as they win going away 120-100.
Jim Feist
Wisc Milwaukee at Wisc Green Bay
Pick: Under
Conference play can mean tougher defense, as can rivalry games like this one. Wisconsin-Milwaukee is not a good shooting team, #245 in the nation in shooting, including 65.3% from the free throw line. On the road, the Panthers are averaging 66.2 scoring. The Under is 7-3 in the Panthers last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Green Bay Phoenix aren't much better, ranked #231 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 42.3%, plus 67.4% from the free throw line. Green Bay is 6-2 under the total at home.
Art Aronson
Flames vs. Canucks
Play: Flames -110
Looks like a good spot to ride the visitors tonight. This is the opener of a home and home set between the clubs. Vancouver has won five straight after a nine-game losing streak. Calgary has been more consistent this season, most recently coming off a 4-1 win over Colorado at home. Neither team’s goaltending has been spectacular of late, so we’ll call that area a “wash” for arguments sake. But note that Calgary is already 3-0 (+3.8 units) this season after playing three consecutive home games, while Vancouver is already 0-5 (-5 units) this year after a victory by two goals or more.
Jimmy Boyd
Grizzlies/Warriors Over 215½
These two teams played back on 12/10 and the Grizzlies prevailed 110-89. It's one of just 5 losses all season for Golden State. I believe the fact that game ended up with just 199 combined points and going under the total of 211.5, has created some value here with the total in the rematch. For starters, the OVER is 50-20 (71%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 210 or more with a home team revenging a road blowout loss of 20 or more.
Memphis is a team that is thought of as a defensive force, but it's been the opposite of late. The Grizzlies are averaging 107.4 ppg over their last 5 and have scored 100+ in each of their last 7. The big key here is the defense just isn't the same on the road. Memphis is allowing just 98.6 ppg on the season, but giving up 103.7 ppg on the road. This isn't a great spot for the Grizzlies, who will be playing their 4th straight road game over the last 7 days and their 6th road game in their last 7 games overall.
Warriors are averaging 121.4 ppg at home this season, while giving up 105.6 ppg. Given what happened in the first meeting with the Grizzlies, I look for Golden State to come out looking to put on a show offensively and send this one well over the mark.
Scott Rickenbach
Wisc-Milwaukee vs. Green Bay
Play: Wisc-Milwaukee +10
Certainly the season to date numbers so far for these teams favor Green Bay in a big way. However, in rivalry games one must remember to always be careful getting overly analytical with the numbers. Rivalry games play out with a ton of emotion and usually with the underdog raising their game to its highest level. Last season these teams met twice in the regular season and Milwaukee won their home game by a point and Green Bay won their home game by 2 points. The teams then met on a neutral site in the conference tourney and the Phoenix won that game by 9 points. The point is that none of last season's games were decided by a double digit margin PLUS the Panthers have conference tourney revenge as a motivator in this one! In games with a posted total in the 140s this season, UW-Milwaukee has gone 3-0 ATS! Even though UW-Green Bay is 3-1 SU at home this season only two of the games were lined and they didn't cover either one of those games. Look for this one to play out much closer than many are expecting as this rivalry brings out the best in the Panthers. UW Milwaukee is certainly in rebuilding mode this season and has gone through a coaching change but even though they are only 2-7 in their last 9 games, they have been playing better overall and only 2 of those 9 game resulted in a loss by double digits for the Panthers. Look for them to be "in this one" all the way.
Stephen Nover
Rockets vs. Magic
Play: Magic +6
There's a saying that it's not who you play, but when you play them that is most important. That theory is going to be tested in a major way today in the Rockets-Magic matchup. Houston is a red-hot 17-2 in its last 19 games, winners of its last six games. Only Golden State averages more than the Rockets' 114.6 points per game. The Rockets have reached triple digits in their last 23 games. So why, pray tell, get involved with the Magic? The answer is the spot. Orlando is in one of the best situational spots of the season. The Rockets just nipped the Thunder, 118-116, in a nationally televised game last night and has a big revenge matchup against Toronto up next on Sunday. This marks the Rockets' first road contest since Dec. 27. It's a major letdown spot for the Rockets. Orlando is off an embarrassing home loss to red-hot Atlanta two days ago. The Magic go on the road for six straight games following this matchup. Evan Fournier, Orlando's leading scorer, returned against the Hawks after missing five games with a heel injury. He scored 14 points in 30 minutes getting the rust off. The Magic have improved their defense under Frank Vogel ranking 14th giving up 103.6 points a game. They should be pumped to play hard at home against this marquee opponent. The Rockets are a less daunting 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.
Sean Murphy
Grizzlies vs. Warriors
Play: Warriors -13
We're being asked to lay plenty of points in this one, but the line is warranted in my opinion.
It's revenge time for the Warriors after getting crushed by 21 points by the Grizzlies in Memphis back in December. That was an anomaly to be sure as Golden State was pegged as a 13-point favorite, noting that the Warriors took down the Grizzlies by 21 points in their previous meeting in Oakland last April.
Needless to say, Golden State has had this game circled on its calendar.
The Grizzlies are in a tough spot - at the end of a four-game road trip. They've been baited into some high-scoring games lately, which doesn't bode well as they prepare to face one of the best offensive teams in league history.
I actually feel this line could be even higher.
Jack Jones
Rockets vs. Magic
Play: Magic +5½
The Houston Rockets are in a tough spot here. They just played on TNT last night against the Oklahoma City Thunder in a thrilling 118-116 home victory. Now they will be playing the second of a back-to-back in Orlando Friday.
I think the Orlando Magic catch the Rockets at the right time here. They will be hungry to bounce back from a bad loss to Atlanta in which they allowed 54.3% shooting on Wednesday night. Look for a big effort from them, and it's worth noting that they just got fully healthy with leading scorer Evan Fournier returning to the lineup.
The Magic have played the Rockets very tough here of late. They have won two of the last four meetings with one of the losses coming in overtime on the road. They won both home meetings with a 104-101 win as 1-point favorites, and a 120-113 victory as 9.5-point dogs.
Orlando is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games after playing five consecutive games as an underdog. The Magic are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Orlando is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with Houston.
David Banks
Memphis @ Golden St
Pick: Memphis +13
After a Wednesday visit from Portland, the Golden State Warriors will face Memphis on Friday night at Oracle Arena in Oakland. The Grizzlies are currently sixth in the Western Conference standings and, prior to the Warriors loss to Cleveland on Christmas Day, were the last team to beat Golden State. Memphis would like nothing more than to do it again. For that to happen though, the Grizzlies are going to have to play almost perfect defense.
In that Memphis win on Dec. 10, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson shot a combined 8-of-28 from the field. Curry scored just 17 points and Thompson didn’t even break into double figures (eight). Leading scorer Kevin Durant (21) was held below his season average of 25.9. Memphis started fast with a 31-16 first quarter lead and led by as many as 30 in the second half.
Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies leading scorer with 19.5 points a game, hit his average in the win over Golden State and power forward JaMychal Green recorded a double-double with 14 points and 10 rebounds. Memphis is the NBA’s second-best defensive team giving up just 97.6 points per game, but Golden State does not lose often at home. The Warriors are 14-2 thus far this season at Oracle Arena.
Wunderdog
Islanders @ Avalanche
Pick: Under 5.5
This is the third road game of a four-game trip out West for the Islanders. They face a Colorado squad under a first-year coach that has no offense, last in the NHL in goals scored, and #28 on the power play. Colorado has lost five in a row and 10 of its last 11. They're on a 10-game winless streak at home, a place they haven't won since November 14. Colorado has tallied 14 goals the last 10 games overall. When these teams clash at Colorado the UNDER is 8-2-1 and this total is too high.