Stephen Nover
New York at Milwaukee
Play: New York +6
The Knicks should have beaten the Bucks at Madison Square Garden two days ago. They lost 105-104 when Giannis Antetokounmpo hit a jumper at the buzzer after he should have been called for violating a five-second rule.
New York blew a 16-point lead in that game and have now lost six in a row. The Knicks lost that game minus their star power forward Kristaps Porzingis, who is their version of Antetokounmpo. Both are rising stars. Porzingis has missed the last three games with a sore Achilles. But he practiced on Thursday and I expect him to play today. Even if he doesn't, I still like the Knicks here in this circle-the-wagons, short revenge spot.
The Knicks played well and hard against the Bucks Carmelo Anthony broke out of his shooting slump to score 30 points pull down 11 rebounds and dish off seven assists. The Knicks certainly are not outclassed here.
Bob Balfe
Monmouth -5.5
Iona like Monmouth was a very deep team last year, but 4 of their top 5 players in terms to playing time are gone and there is not much of a proven bench yet this year. Monmouth has a lot of firepower, but didn’t jump out of the gates early with big wins against top flight programs. Once a team beats a Monmouth other teams use that game plan. Monmouth struggles with more physical athletes, but in conference they are as good as anybody. This is a must win situation for the Hawks after dropping a couple conference games already.
Rocketman
New York @ Milwaukee
Play: New York +5.5
The New York Knicks travel to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks on Friday night. New York comes in with a 16-19 SU overall record this year while Milwaukee is 18-16 SU overall this season. New York is 14-4 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more. Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS this year against Atlantic Division opponents. Milwaukee is 49-89 ATS last 138 games and 3-12 ATS last 3 years after 3 or more consecutive wins. New York is scoring 105.3 points per game overall this year, 104.1 points per game on the road this season and 103.8 points per game their past 5 games overall. Milwaukee is allowing 102.4 points per game overall this year, 103.4 points per game on the road this season and 100.8 points per game their past 5 games overall. Feel like New York will at the very least keep this one close and could possibly come out with the outright win. We'll recommend a small play on New York tonight!
Bob Valentino
My free play for tonight is in the NBA, as we trail the New York Knicks into Milwaukee and take the points against the Bucks.
I honestly don't see why the Knicks can't hang in this game, as the Bucks don't really score enough to blow anyone out. I'm guessing the line is what it is because the Bucks have been decent on the back end of these home-and-home sets, as this is their fifth since Dec. 1.
They swept Brooklyn on Dec. 1 and 3, they swept Chicago on Dec. 15 and 16, they were swept by the Cavs on Dec. 20 and 21 and they split with the Wizards on Dec. 23 and 26.
Now, after a 1-point win in Manhattan on Wednesday, the Bucks host a Knicks team that is mired in a six-game slide, but that is averaging 105.5 points per game during the skid.
Look for a competitive, back-and-forth game tonight, as the Knicks stay inside the number.
3* KNICKS
Eric Schroeder
Tonight's freebie is on the Iona Gaels, taking the points on the road against he Monmouth Hawks.
Trust me, the oddsmakers are making a big mistake by siding with the home team. I know Iona has lost three of four, but Monmouth has lost three in a row and it is giving up a lot of points right now. Just in its last three games, Monmouth has given up 102, 93 and 71 points. Over their last five, the Hawks have allowed an average of 87 points per game.
And if there were ever a time the Gaels needed a breakout game, against a fledgling team with a weak scoring defense, this is the one. It's not as if Iona is going to take Monmouth lightly, not when the Hawks are 10-5 on the year, and the two are tied in league play at 2-2.
The road team won both meetings last season, and the Gaels scored a 79-76 win in the conference tournament. Take the road team here, as Iona aims for the outright win.
5* IONA
Brad Wilton
The Rockets enter with a 28-9 straight up mark, and that includes last night's home win over Oklahoma City. That makes it 6 straight wins for Mike D'Antoni's team, and covers in 4 of those 6 wins.
Houston is obviously on fire right now, but its always dicey backing a team playing a back-to-backer, especially on the road!
Orlando has been the loser in 3 of their last 4 games, and all 3 losses have come by double-digits. Most recently on Wednesday when the Hawks ran them out of their own gym. Still, Houston has dropped their last pair of visits to Orlando, and with the Rockets playing their game last night that pitted two of the league's superstars - Russell Westbrook and James Harden - against each other, I can see the Rockets failing to launch this evening in Orlando.
The Magic own a 6-1 home spread mark the past 7 meetings against the Rockets, and are on an 11-2 overall spread run the past 13 series meetings.
Take the points.
4* ORLANDO
Brett Atkins
Friday free play will be the double-digits to work with the Philly 76ers in their game at Boston.
The Sixers play this one off a Tuesday home win - their second in a row! - over Minnesota. Philadelphia has been pretty competitive of late, with covers in 3 of their last 4 games overall.
Boston does enter with 8 wins in their last 10 games straight up, but this point total is a little high considering Philadelphia took them right down to the wire in the first meeting of the season back in December, as the C's edged the Sixers, 107-106 as the -10 point road choice.
The Celtics won't lose this game, but with the 76ers making strides at being a more competitive foe on a nightly basis, I will grab the points and look for a close one on the parquet floor on Friday.
Take Philly.
2* PHILADELPHIA
BRANDON LEE
Rockets -5.5
I know the Rockets are playing on no rest and off a grueling game at home last night against the Thunder, but I just don't think the books are giving this team enough love in this spot. Houston has gone 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 when playing on 0 days of rest. They have also covered 11 of their last 14 on the road. Orlando on the other hand is not a great road team. The Magic are a mere 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 home games. Orlando is also a team that doesn't play much defense, which gives them little to no chance of slowing down this high-powered Rockets offense.
RAY MONOHAN
Boston -12.5
The Celtics are catching some fire, which spells trouble for the 76ers here on Friday night. Boston has won 8 out of their last 10 and with everyone healthy, this team is starting to come together.
Boston has seen C Al Horford absolutely take off recently. Horford has gone 17 of 28 from the field over the past 2 games and is even shooting the 3 ball. He's hit 6 of the 12 he's taken during the span.
Some trends to note. Celtics are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. Celtics are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Boston has taken the last 9 in this series and with how hot they are right now, the 76ers are going to really struggle to slow this team down Friday.
DAVE PRICE
Knicks +5.5
Look for a big effort from the New York Knicks here Friday. They just lost to the Bucks on Wednesday after blowing a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter to lose 104-105. Now they are expected to have Kristaps Porzingis available tonight after he sat out that game. The Knicks will also be hungry to end a season-high 6-game losing streak here. New York is 7-0 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog this season. Milwaukee is 4-19 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 years. The Knicks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.
TEDDY COVERS
76ers +11½
The Celtics consistently step up in statement games, bringing energy and execution against top notch foes. But Boston is not a ‘win by double digits and blow teams out at home’ type of squad; 0-fer the season ATS as favorites of -8 or higher.
In fact, Brad Stevens squad is just a 40% ATS proposition at home – Boston is a ‘back ‘em on the highway, fade em at home’ type of squad. They faced Miami on this floor as nine point chalk last week; my clients and I cashing a winning bet when the Celtics only won by three. Once again tonight, I’m not expecting Boston to bring their ‘A’ game for energy and effort.
The last time Boston played Philly on this floor, they won 84-80, never sniffing a pointspread cover as -12 point chalk. And when these two teams met up in Philadelphia last month, the Celtics barely escaped with a one point victory on an Isaiah Thomas layup in the final minute as ten point favorites. The Celtics are well aware that they don’t need their ‘A’ game to beat the 76ers, and have treated Philly accordingly.
There’s some ‘bet-on’ for Philadelphia in this handicap as well. Make no mistake about it – the 76ers are getting better, game by game, week by week, after years of futility. The Sixers are coming off back-2-back two point wins over the T-wolves and Nuggets, their third set of back-2-back wins this season. Philly fought tooth and nail to extend those two previous winning streaks, taking Memphis to OT and hanging within single digits of Toronto; not a team that’s satisfied off a couple of victories. Throw in a 5-2 ATS mark in their last seven on the highway, with one of the losses coming in a seven point defeat at Phoenix as six point underdogs, and there’s a clear indicator that Philly is a ‘bet-on’ team in this road underdog role right now.
The 76ers interior size matches up well against Boston’s undersized group in the low post. Joel Embiid, Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor are all expected to suit up tonight; a tough matchup for Amir Johnson, Al Horford and Kelly Olynyk, especially with Tyler Zeller suffering from a flu bug, unable to practice yesterday. Stretch 4 Ersan Ilyasova has been a huge boost for this team as well, another tough matchup for the Celtics defense. Bottom line? Too many points!
SPORTS WAGERS
Nashville +107 over FLORIDA
OT included. This is probably not a good matchup in terms of styles for the Panthers. Florida is a team that likes to carry it into the zone before working the corners and boards in an attempt to pressure the opposing defense into making mistakes. Nashville’s defense is one of the best in the league in moving it out quickly and efficiently. The Preds are also a strong puck possession team and that’s another problem for the Panthers mistake-prone defense. While we like the Panthers to come up with some good games in the second half, they are a big risk when spotting a price. They were soundly outplayed by Winnipeg in their last game and there’s a great chance they’ll be soundly outplayed in this one too.
Florida is favored here for a couple of reasons. First, Nashville played in Tampa Bay last night. Second, the Preds back-up goaltender, Juuse Saros is almost guaranteed to start after Pekka Rinne played last night. While the market does not like getting behind back-up goaltenders or teams playing the tail end of back-to-backs, we like both situations very much. First, teams’ often play their hardest when a back-up is in because they all appreciate the hard work and mental focus that a back-up must maintain all year long. It also doesn’t hurt our chances that Saros is better than Rinne. Next, the Preds are a team that has underachieved all year and that has taken plenty of heat for it too. That 6-1 win last night in Tampa will mean absolutely nothing if they give it back here. This game now has significant meaning to the Preds, as they have been unable to string together consecutive wins all year long. Lastly, some of Nashville’s best games this year have come in the second game of back-to-backs, which include a 5-1 win over Pittsburgh, a 5-1 win over New Jersey and most recently a 4-0 victory over the Blues.
COLORADO +130 over N.Y. Islanders
OT included. We completely understand the perils of the Avalanche. Colorado is almost unplayable right now because they can’t get out of its own way while losing almost every night. With three victories over its last 20 games, you would be hard-pressed to find a non-expansion team in the history of this game that has lost 17 of 20 games. However, we are going to put that all aside here for a couple of reasons. First, the Avs might have the worst record in the NHL but they have a solid collection of talent, especially up front that is not conducive to losing this many games. The Avs are more fragile in the mind than they are bad but they could not have hand-picked a more ripe team to get beat than the Islanders.
Yesterday we targeted the Wild, citing that the long layoff is a big detriment and while the Wild somehow rallied to win that game, trust us when we tell you that they were flat as hell to start and had a mere 11 shots on net after two periods. One of the more bizarre third periods that you’ll ever see followed and the result was an unlikely Minnesota win. The night before, all four teams that were off for an extended period, Dallas, Philly, Florida and Anaheim, were also flat. Now the Islanders come in after being off since last Saturday when they played in Winnipeg on New Year’s Eve. The Islanders are beatable on their best day and with nearly six full days off, they are spotting a price to the most desperate team in the NHL. Frankly, the Islanders are not good enough to be spotting a tag on the road to any team in this league and that includes the Avalanche. The situation is just right and so is the price.
SPORTS WAGERS
MONMOUTH -5½ over Iona
The Hawks have had this date circled on the calendar since March, as it is an opportunity for Monmouth to avenge a MEAC Championship Game loss to this Gaels' team that cost them a conference championship and a bid to the 2016 Men’s National Basketball Tournament. Revenge is an angle we seldom use because it’s an overused one but there are exceptions to every rule and this one fits that bill because the loss was a resonating one. Heading into the aforementioned contest, many bracketologists were penciling the Hawks in while prognosticating which teams would fall victim to this squad. Nevertheless, Iona would pull off the upset in March, which is very likely still weighing heavily on the host. Monmouth was pulverizing every opponent they came across before that MEAC Championship Game and perhaps took the Gaels lightly but they won’t make that mistake here. Iona has been a perpetual thorn in the Hawks side and it’s now time to put an end to that.
Monmouth comes in at 10-5 but it has hit a three-game skid so its stock is lower than it should be. We also like that Monmouth has stepped up in terms of scheduling. The Hawks are looking to prove they are not just another mid-major team with a pretty record and fragile glass slipper. Monmouth has already traveled to Memphis, North Carolina, Syracuse and South Carolina to comprise a challenging out-of-conference docket. In those four games, the Hawks followed suit of most mid-majors when they were routed by Syracuse and UNC but they did put up 74 points against the Tar Heels. However, the Hawks lost to South Carolina by just a point in overtime and they defeated Memphis outright. They also have a very nice win over Princeton.
Iona’s best opponents were Florida State, Nevada (twice) and Weber State where the Gaels would go 2-2 against that trio while getting rolled by FSU and Nevada in the process. Those three opponents do not stack up anywhere close to the prestige and prominence of teams such as Memphis, UNC and Syracuse. The most compelling storyline from a consensus perspective is that Iona beat a St. Peter’s team that Monmouth most recently lost to but the Hawks were on the road the day after New Year’s for that game and we don’t put much weight on losses occurred during “party time” for a bunch of college kids. The Gaels are a weak 9-6. They lost to a Delaware team that was down 40-7 to Northeastern last night and ended up losing by 36 points.
The Hawks have an opportunity here to recollect themselves and reinvigorate their season against a team they are foaming at the mouth to take on. These Hawks are 5-1 at home this season and it is without question the Gaels will be stepping into an animated and electrified environment where hostilities will be at a premium. In one of our sports-betting podcasts (Episode 10), we talk about the sharpest book in the business (Pinny). They priced Monmouth half of a point higher than the trending number which gives us a green light to swallow these points. One of our best angles is paying attention to that aforementioned book and they have spoken here.
Jeffrey James
Wizards -4.5
Lots of reasons to like the Wizards here. Washington has covered their last 8 home games in a row and the home team in this series has covered 10 of the last 13 games. Minnesota stinks on the road and Washington is solid at home. Just too many reasons to love the Wizards here.