Jason Sharpe
Detroit (+135) over New York Yankees
The New York Yankees' C.C. Sabathia has been one of the feel-good stories of the young 2016 baseball season as the big left-hander looks a major candidate for MLB Comeback Player of the Year. He's posted an ERA a full two runs lower this season than he did last year. Sabathia has done some great things, but there are still a lot of question marks with him when it comes to pitching in Yankee Stadium. He's had just three starts there this year and he failed to get out of the 5th inning in two of them. Sabathia's struggles in New York go back a few years now, and he will face one of the best offenses in MLB when it comes to hitting left-handed pitching here in the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers most likely will start a lineup featuring all 9 hitters being right-handed, which is a big edge for any offense to have over a southpaw pitcher. The Yankees offense has been bad all season long and is missing a couple of key bats right now. Getting the Tigers here at big plus money with their strong offense against a lefty who has struggled in this environment and they are also facing what is a weak hitting offensive club in NYY as well. This makes for solid line value here in this one.
Indian Cowboy
Atlanta / Minnesota Over 160
Atlanta will be ready for this game. This team will be well rested and will be looking forward to facing the elite Lynx at home and they will likely be a decent sized public underdog here. The public will heavily favor the Lynx, who will be a modest favorite, and Atlanta could very well fall in the number. Note, the last time these two teams met a 166 points were scored as Minnesota won by 2 points, and we expect roughly the same to happen here. Except this time we expect even more points to be scored. Note, Atlanta is a better offensive team this year, posting 102 at Dallas, 85 against Indiana at home, 87 against Chicago and 83 against Connecticut on the road. So, you have a Atlanta team who will be a fabulous home underdog and Minnesota, who will hold their own as they love playing East Coast teams on the road as this team loves nothing more than a challenge. Look for this game to fast paced and look for Minnesota to come out ahead barely, but more importantly look for Atlanta to step up here on the offensive side and push this game over. Besides, if Minnesota beats Phoenix in the game before, they will enter this game with an 8-0 start to the season and Atlanta would love nothing more than to be the first team to hand this team a loss.
Allen Eastman
Texas / Seattle Over 7.5
This is a big game for both of these teams. They are battling for the top stop in the A.L. West. They faced one another in a series last weekend, and two of those three games went 'over' the total. The only game that didn't go 'over' in that series featured the same pitching matchup set for Friday with Derek Holland going up against Hisashi Iwakuma. I think the batters are going to make adjustments to these two pitchers. Holland has a 5.51 ERA on the road this year. Texas is going to be coming off a tough series with in-state rival Houston. They could have a letdown here up in Seattle and that includes the bullpen. The 'over' is 6-1 in Texas' last seven games overall and the 'over' is 5-1 in their last six divisional games. Seattle has been hitting the ball really well and the 'over' is 18-7 in their last 25 games overall. The 'over' is 7-1 in Seattle's last eight home games, and I like this one to beat the total again.
DAVE COKIN
INDIANS VS. ANGELS
PLAY: INDIANS -123
It’s not generally all about the starting pitching for me. I always start there, but in most cases there is a load of other data that also factors into whether or not I’ll take a stand on a particular game.
Tonight however, it’s pretty much all about the starting pitching. On paper, Cory Kluber vs. Hector Santiago is kind of a mismatch.
Kluber absolutely crushes Santiago on the comparatives I put the most faith in. That’s from an overall perspective to begin with, and when isolating home and road splits for these two pitchers, it gets even more dominating in favor of Kluber. Santiago has been really bad of late, with four seriously poor starts in succession.
I don’t see anything on the team info that is going to discourage me to any extent. I actually see a slight edge for the Angels offensively, but it’s not anything of particular substance. Moreover, the Halos are returning home from a bad road trip and they will enter tonight’s game on a four-game losing streak.
The one worry for me is at the end of the game if it’s tight. Cody Allen probably needs a night off after a tough four-out save at Seattle on Thursday. So it might make a bit more sense to play this game first half only. But if I do that, I’m probably going to have to lay a bigger price than the -123 that’s the consensus price presently. So I will be going full game here, and the Indians and Kluber are the choice.
Sleepyj
Giants +1.5 -135
I have to take the Giants at home here with the RL...Getting +1.5 in a game lined 5.5 for the total, makes the RL wager even better...Just imagine if the line on the game for the total was 3...Well the +1.5 is less likely to be beat Vs. if the total was 10.5....We get two great pitchers on the mound and both are in a zone IMO...I like the fact that the Giants are at home...I also like the fact that the Giants stumped the Dodgers with Cueto back on the mound in April..Dodgers haven't seen much of Cueto and he thew 3 hits ball in 7 full allowing only 1 ER...He struck out 7 in that game and that game was on the road mind you...Kershaw has been see far more of the either two pitchers by the opposite side..The Giants must know who hit much better facing Kershaw by now..Will it work is the question...Kershaw is a master once he gets to know you as a hitter...Kershaw also had success against the Giants in April...He gave up 6 hits and 2ER and walked 0 batters.....Here is my concern for Kershaw though...#1 his level of competition this year...He has faced some bad lineups...Atlanta (twice), Mets (twice) SD (twice), Cinn, Mia....That's 8 below avg hitting teams....Now Kershaw has beaten the Giants twice this year in back to back starts..That was back in April..I feel the Giants now are a step up in class here...I also think we have the better manager here...I look for the Giants to get after Kershaw with small ball....Look for the Giants to throw some early bunts at Kershaw..Just to get him thinkin....If the Giants are successful with this approach, the +1.5 becomes even more valuable...I'll take my chances going against Kershaw....A wager I don;t make to often fading a guy who will be the clear front runner for the Cy Young if he indeed pitches a gem....Sf loses or wins by 1.
Rob Vinciletti
Padres vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -160
Colorado off an impressive 11-5 win over the pirates has San Diego coming in and the Padres are 1-8 of late on the road. Colorado fits a powerful 88% Database system that plays on home favorites off a home win that scored 10 or more runs and are taking on a team off a -140 or higher home favored loss like the Padres.. Colorado has strikeout machine J. Gray going and j=he has won 3 of 4 at home and has a stellar 1.96 Era vs San Diego. The Padres counter with Cashner who has lost his last 3 on the road with a 5.40 road era. Look for Colorado to take the opener.
Stephen Nover
Oakland at Cincinnati
Play: Oakland -115
This is how bad pitching is for the Reds: They are eagerly welcoming back second-year big leaguer Anthony DeSclafani to the mound tonight for his season debut. DeSclafani has been out since the end of spring training with an oblique strain.
DeSclafani did display a glimpse of potential in his rookie season last year, but finished by losing his last three starts giving up 17 runs. He has yet to solve hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park with a 5.11 home ERA. Cincinnati is 2-8 in DeSclafani's last 10 starts.
Since it's his big league first start of 2016, DeSclafani could be on a pitch count. That means the Reds' bullpen - the worst in the majors - is likely to be heavily involved.
The flip side of this equation is believing that A's starter Sonny Gray is back to his stud form of the past three seasons. This is essential to the handicap because the A's have lost seven in a row on the road and are down outfielder Josh Reddick and also may be missing outfielder Khris Davis, who has a finger injury.
The mystery of why Gray has been so bad this season was solved a couple of weeks ago when he went on the DL with a strained trapezius muscle. Looking to buy low, I traded for Gray in my American League fantasy league dealing closer Huston Street for him after watching Gray's road performance against the Astros this past Sunday.
That was Gray's first start since coming off the DL and he was sharp giving up one earned run in five innings with five strikeouts and seven ground ball outs. Gray was excellent on the road last season going 8-3 with a 2.82 ERA. So the Sonny Gray buy sign is on for me at this price.
The Reds have dropped nine of their last 12 home games and are 2-9 the past 11 times going against a righty at Great American Ball Park. The A's are far from a good team, but they have taken care of business against bad teams winning six of the last seven times versus foes with a winning percentage below .400.
Mike Lundin
Rangers vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners -150
This looks like a good spot to back the Seattle Mariners as they host the Texas Rangers for the opener of a three-game series Friday night.
Hisashi Iwakuma (4-5, 4.13) will take the ball for Seattle. He's 8-5 with a 3.35 ERA in 17 career appearances (16 starts) against Texas and has held the Rangers to six runs with 19 Ks over 18 innings of work this season. The Mariners are 6-2 in Iwakuma's last eight starts vs. Rangers and 9-2 in his last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
The Rangers turn to left-hander Derek Holland (5-4, 4.53 ERA) who has held Seattle to a pair of runs in 13 2/3 innings covering two meetings this season. He has constantly struggled to retire Robinson Cano though, as he's batting .372 with two homers and nine RBIs in 43 at-bats. Cano smacked two homers in Thursday's 5-3 loss to Cleveland.
The current members of the Mariners have a combined batting average of .292 over 226 at bats against Holland I think he'll be hit hard tonight. We can also note that Seattle's bullpen has the third best ERA in baseball at 2.97 while Texas' is second worst with a 4.93 mark.
Marc Lawrence
Dodgers vs. Giants
Play: Giants +142
Edges -Giants: Johnny Cueto 7-0 with 1.79 ERA and 1.05 WHIP last 7 overall team starts, and 8-0 team starts at night this season, and 9-1 last 10 home team starts during June. Dodgers: 3-11 last 14 games in this park. With that look for Cueto to improve to 4-0 in his last four team starts versus the Dodgers here this evening. We recommend a 1* play on San Francisco.
Scott Spreitzer
Oakland at Cincinnati
Play: Oakland -115
I'm recommending a play on the Oakland A's on Friday with Sonny Gray and Anthony DeSclafani set to take the mound. This one is mainly about the starting pitchers. One of the things we do when betting MLB is to attempt to get out in front of potential team or pitcher hot runs. Sonny Gray was struggling badly before a stint on the DL, but he returned to the mound with a more Gray-like performance last time out, holding the Houston Astros to one earned run in five innings of work. Gray looked sharp and we believe we have the opportunity to jump on board before he gets pricier. And when Gray has been healthy, he's been outstanding on the road during his career, entering this season with a 2.70 ERA in his last 37 road appearances, including 35 starts. Cincy will send Anthony DeSclafani out for his first start of the season after coming of the DL with an oblique strain. The Reds' right-hander has not enjoyed Great American Ballpark during his short career, entering Friday with a hefty 5.05 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and .310 BAA in 17 home appearances, (16 starts). No reason to believe he'll find the "sweet elixir" at home tonight. The Reds enter on a 2-9 slide at home against right-handers, and they have won just 13 of their last 47 interleague matchups. Most importantly, we believe we're catching Gray at a nice price.
Art Aronson
Tigers vs. Yankees
Play: Over 9½
The visitors hand the ball to Mike Pelfrey (1-5, 4.76 ERA) who comes in off his best start of the year by giving up two runs off five hits over six innings in a 7-4 win over the anemic White Sox on Saturday. Pelfrey was still wild despite the win though, walking three and hitting another batter. The home side counters with CC Sabathia (3-4, 2.58) who comes in off a no-decision vs. the Orioles on Sunday, despite going five scoreless with with five K’s and six walks. Sabathia has thrown better of late, but is still 0-2 with a 3.31 ERA in front of the home town crowd. With these two inconsistent starters going head to head on Friday night, we think the OVER is absolutely worthy of a second look in this matchup.
Matt Josephs
Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Play: Orioles +132
I continue to back Kevin Gausman as he continues to look for win number one on the season. Despite being winless, the Orioles are 4-5 in his starts. The righty has electric stuff with 50 strikeouts to just 13 walks in just over 53 innings. Last year he held the Jays to three runs and nine hits in 13 innings. Gausman may get to see a Jays lineup without Jose Bautista who left on Thursday with thigh tightness. Toronto is hitting around .200 in their last seven games and just don't have a ton of threats. Marco Estrada has good numbers for the home team although he's had issues with walks. Estrada did beat the Red Sox in Boston last time out, but he got fat and happy off of the Yankees before that. Baltimore's offense is smoking hot right now having scored four runs or more in 11 of their last 14 games. Toronto's bullpen picked up it's 16th loss on the season on Thursday. At this juicy price, I'll back the Orioles on Friday.
Bob Harvey
Dodgers vs. Giants
Play: Under 5½
The Dodgers and Giants resume their longstanding rivalry when they meet in the opener of a three-game series. Los Angeles and Clayton Kershaw (-151) are favored over Johnny Cueto and the Giants. San Francisco has won four of the seven meetings this season.
The Dodgers (32-29, 30-31 RL) begin play four games behind the first-place Giants but have a real shot at carving into that deficit with Kershaw on the hill. The Dodgers lefty has the lowest ERA in baseball at 1.46, is 17-7 with a 1.60 ERA in 33 games against the Giants (9-3, 1.23 in 16 appearances) at AT&T Park. Los Angeles has also been lifted by the play of shortstop Corey Seager who leads the team in home runs (14), RBIs (35) and batting average (.283)
The Giants (36-25, 29-32 RL) are 4-5 in their last nine games - batting .193 during that span - since a 15-2 stretch vaulted them into control of the NL West.
Kershaw (8-1, 1.46 ERA) is 6-0 with a 0.81 ERA in his last seven starts after yielding three hits and striking out a season-low four in six innings of a 4-0 victory over Atlanta on Saturday. The Dodgers lefthander is putting numbers this that SCREAM Cy Young Award. He’s got 109 strikeouts against just six walks. His WHIP is 0.65 and opposing teams are hitting just .168 against and for good measure, Kershaw is 1-0 with a 2.40 ERA in two starts against San Francisco this season.
Cueto (9-1, 2.16) has been nearly as impressive. He’s 6-0 with a 1.52 ERA in his last eight starts after allowing an unearned run and walking a season-high five in six innings of a 5-1 victory in St. Louis on June 3. Cueto is 4-5 with a 3.16 ERA in 10 starts versus Los Angeles including a 2-0 mark and a 4.40 ERA in two outings this season.
Larry Ness
Miami at Arizona
Play: Arizona
Arizona has won seven of its L11 meetings with Miami here at Chase Field.
Arizona attempted to to overhaul its pitching staff in the offseason but the 26-36 D’backs open a three-game home series against Miami with a 4.71 team ERA which ranks 26th out of 30 teams. Arizona will bring a HORRIFIC 5.55 home ERA into tonight’s contest, a major reason why only the Atlanta Braves (6-23) have fewer home victories than the Arizona D’backs (10-22) this season. Actually, Arizona has had problems almost everywhere since closing to within one game of .500 back on May 10, dropping 18 of 27 overall since that time.
Miami (31-29) comes in with one of the best road records in the NL at 17-13 (team’s plus-$755 moneyline mark is the second-best road record in MLB). The Marlins had a season-high 18 hits in a victory at Minnesota on Wednesday and hope to continue swinging hot bats against the D’backs, a team they outscored 15-7 during a three-game sweep at home from May 3-5. Arizona continues a nine-game homestand that began with the club losing two of three to Tampa Bay. The Marlins have won five straight in the series and send Justin Nicolino (2-3, 4.37 ERA) to the mound up against Patrick Corbin (3-5, 4.73 ERA).
Nicolino is winless in six starts (team is 1-5) despite allowing three runs or fewer on four occasions, including each of the last three. Nicolino last earned a win back on May 3 against these very D’backs, despite surrendering four runs on seven hits and three walks over six innings. It marked his only career start against Arizona. Corbin ended a two-game skid on Sunday, allowing two runs and five hits over seven innings in a 3–2 victory over the Cubs in Chicago. The D’backs are 5-7 in Corbin’s 12 starts in 2016 but remains winless at home with an 0-4 record with an abysmal 7.94 ERA in five outings (team is 0-5).
Isn’t Corbin WAY overdue to win at home? Why not here? After all, Arizona has won seven of its last 11 meetings with Miami here at Chase Field. Also note that Miami salvaged the finale of its three-game road interleague series against Minnesota in a 10-3 victory on Thursday, matching its season high in runs first accomplished with an identical 10-3 road win over the New York Mets on April 11 (not to mention a season-high with 18 hits!). Can you say letdown?
Power Sports
Baltimore vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
The Blue Jays suffered a pretty disappointing loss last night (I know because I had 'em!), 6-5, in the series opener w/ Baltimore. It was a game they led 4-1 after two innings and 5-3 after four. The Orioles are certainly hot right now (8-1 in June), but are due to cool off, and the Jays happen to have the right pitcher going.
The pitcher in question for Toronto here would be Marco Estrada, who is 3-0 w/ 1.96 ERA and 0.826 WHIP his L3 starts overall and took a no-hitter into the eighth inning his last time out, against the best offense in baseball (Red Sox). Here at home, Estrada has a 1.30 ERA and 0.808 WHIP in five starts. He held the O's to only one run and five hits earlier this season as he went five innings against them. Only one time all year has Estrada allowed more than 4 ER.
Kevin Gausman remains winless in 2016 for Baltimore in nine starts. He hasn't gotten any better of late w/ a 5.29 ERA his L3 starts. Remember that before winning 8 of 9, the team had dropped seven of nine, so things have a funny way of evening themselves out. I remain lukewarm (at best) on the Orioles, who have certainly exceeded expectations thus far. But they've also played the fewest number of road games (24) in all of MLB to this point. Blue Jays get their revenge here.