Big Al
Baltimore vs. Toronto
Pick: Under
At age 32, RHP Marco Estrada is on the verge of having a breakout season. His record may be only 4-2 in his first 11 starts, but Estrada has career-bests in ERA (2.41), WHIP (0.98), and hits per nine innings (5.3). That latter is the best hit rate in the league (he also led the league in this category in 2015 at 6.7). The fact that Estrada is so difficult to hit and also has one of the lowest home run rates in the league (0.8.) may pose a serious problem for an O's lineup that relies so heavily on the long ball. As unfortunate as Estrada has been in the victory department, O's RHP Kevin Gausman can look at Estrada's four wins and wish he had just half that many. That's because Gausman has been perhaps the unluckiest pitcher in the Majors this year, having posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in his nine starts, yet failing to win a single game so far. Take the Jays and Orioles to sail 'under' the total.
Tennis Insiders
Mahut vs. Tomic
Pick: Tomic
Tomic is the value pick as favorite here, the bookmakers putting too much emphasis on his poor 2016 record. He's had a turbulent 2016, drawing wide media criticism for his lack of interest in the clay court season, a surface he simply hates. He's shown more positive signs over the past 6 weeks, describing his behaviour as poor & vowing to break the top ten in the coming year. Mahut is 13-2 in Den Bosch, winning the title twice. Mahut is struggling for form though, currently riding a 5-8 record in his last 13 matches, and was pushed by Mathieu in the 2nd round, Tomic will be a much more difficult task and if the Australian keeps his 1st serve percentage high, he should win this one. Expect a tight match, but Tomic is beginning to find his form in time for Wimbledon, and will be a dangerous opponent for anyone on the grass.
Jim Feist
Cleveland at Seattle
Pick: Under
Josh Tomlin (8-1, 3.54 ERA) has been sharp most of the season for Cleveland, walking just 7 with 41 strikeouts in 61 innings. The Under is 18-6-3 in the Indians last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Seattle is a big park, great for pitchers, and the Mariners have hit better on the road. The under is 39-19-3 in the Mariners last 61 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Nathan Karns is fine at home with a 3.60 ERA and the Under is 9-4-1 when the Mariners face a team with a winning record.
Wunderdog
Minnesota @ Atlanta
Pick: Under 163.5
This is the fifth road game over the last eight contests for unbeaten Minnesota. Minnesota plays terrific defense, second in the WNBA in points allowed, 7-3 UNDER the total after a spread loss, plus 9-4-1 UNDER when playing on two days of rest. Minnesota enters this one without guard Seimone Augustus, lost to a concussion in the third quarter the last game. First-place Atlanta has been impressive, playing only three home games -- tied for fewest in the league. The Dream are fifth in points allowed and tops in rebounding. Atlanta will bring their best defense in this showdown and Atlanta is on a 9-4 run UNDER the total.
Andrew Lange
Houston vs. Tampa
Play: Houston -118
After getting smacked around some by Boston in his first start back on May 13, Houston's Lance McCullers has settled in nicely with a 3.13 ERA and 33 strikeouts over his last four outings. In those starts, McCullers recorded an average of 14 swinging strikes and a 34/21 GB-to-FB ratio. And his velocity has been right in line with last year's stellar rookie campaign. All signs point towards McCullers being a "bet on" pitcher and that's exactly what the markets are thinking as he quickly became the road favorite in tonight's start against Tampa. Like McCullers, Matt Andriese is in his second season and has pitched well with a 2.52 ERA. He doesn't have premium stuff with only 25 strikeouts in 39.1 innings. And he's probably been a bit fortunate with only one home run allowed. Keep in mind he allowed eight dingers last season in only 65.2 innings of work. After getting swept by Texas in late May, Houston has won 12 of its last 17 games and the offense has picked it up with 4.88 runs per game during that span. Astros worthy of being the road chalk in this matchup and at less than -120, worthy of a wager.
Scott Rickenbach
Padres at Rockies
Play: Under 12
I rode the over to an easy victory in Colorado yesterday. However, today’s game is likely to play out much differently. Certainly the weather is still favorable for an over today in Denver just like it was yesterday. However, the start time of this game is nearly 4 hours later than it was yesterday. Evening air not quite as hitter friendly as afternoon air in Colorado. The big key here is that hitters have to connect with the ball to take advantage of the thin air. That could be a problem for the Padres tonight because the Rockies Jon Gray has faced San Diego twice so far this season and he has piled up 23 strikeouts in 13 innings of work. Complete domination! Andrew Cashner gets the start for the Padres and he has been respectable against Colorado with only 3 earned runs allowed in his two starts against the Rockies. Cashner, though not dominant (and one of the outings was a short one) has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 9 straight starts! Though the Rockies are off of an over the under was 6-2 in their 8 prior starts. The under is 4-2 in the Padres last 6 games. Look for the Padres to stay under for the 7th time in 10 Friday games this season. Look for the under to improve to 17-10 in Rockies games this season when they are off of a win.
Dave Essler
Indians -130
I gotta - and almost went larger. Horrendous travel spot for the Angels coming back from New York late last night - Cleveland a much short (and happier) flight - Kluber in good form and the Indians have fared better against LHP this season than in the past. I do see that a some Angels money came in recently, but the work is done and there was Seattle money last night - didn't matter.
TEDDY DAVIS
Indians vs. Angels
Play: Indians -128
Fading Kluber so far this year has been a very choice, however he is now starting to come back to his form. His last three starts his ERA is 3.10 and in 6 road starts he has been very impressive with a 3.18 ERA. He has a big advantage here tonight on the mound. Also the Indians are playing very well right now winning 7 of their last 9. Hector Santiago is taking the mound for the Angels and he is in terrible form right now giving up 14 earned runs his last three starts with an ERA of 9.69. The Angels have also lost 4 in a row and I don't see that changing here tonight.
STEVE JANUS
Warriors vs. Cavs
Play: Under 207
Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - an excellent offensive team (102+ PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout loss by 20 points or more. This system is 58-27 (68%) against the total since 1996.
JEFF ALEXANDER
Cubs -1.5 -140
I have no interest laying -200 or more on any team, but I will pick my spots on the run line when I feel there is a big enough advantage like we have here with the Cubs against the Braves. Chicago owns the best record in baseball at 41-17, while Atlanta has the worst at 17-42. All signs point to a win here for the Cubs by at least 2 runs. Chicago will send out Jason Hammel, who is 7-1 with a 2.14 ERA in 11 starts, while Atlanta gives the ball to Bud Norris, who is 1-5 with a 7.48 ERA and 1.880 WHIP in 6 starts. Chicago has one of the best offenses at 5.4 runs/game, while the Braves have one of the worst at 3.1 runs/game.
RAY MONOHAN
Mets vs. Brewers
Play: Mets -120
The Mets and Brewers continue their series and New York continues to have value at low prices. Matt Harvery goes for New York and while he started off the year shaky, he's started to figure things out. Harvey has allowed just 1 run over 14 innings of work in his last two starts. This will mark the first time he faces Milwaukee, but will be going against a very sub par lineup.
New York has also had the Brewers number this season. They swept them back on May 20-22 and followed that up with a 5-2 win yesterday in the series opener. New York is all over the Brewers pitching this season.
Some trends to consider. Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. Mets are 12-2 in their last 14 Friday games.
There's something about Fridays for the Mets this season. Combine that with their success against Milwaukee and this is a solid spot and price for them.
JACK JONES
Boston Red Sox -132
After losing five of their last seven games overall, the Boston Red Sox come into this series highly motivated. They should be bigger favorites against the Minnesota Twins, who own the worst record in the American League at 18-41 on the season.
That's especially the case with the advantage the Red Sox have on the mound today. Steven Wright is 6-4 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.970 WHIP in six road starts.
Tyler Duffey will get the ball for the Twins tonight. He's 2-4 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.447 WHIP in eight starts this season, 1-2 with a 5.92 ERA and 1.438 WHIP in four home starts, and 1-1 with a 7.41 ERA and 1.822 WHIP in his last three starts overall.
Minnesota is 8-28 (-18.6 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. The Twins are 18-44 in their last 62 overall. Minnesota is 2-14 in its last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
MARTIN GRIFFITHS
Argentina vs Panama
Play: Panama +2
Argentina will be hoping to continue their strong start to the Copa America with victory at Soldier Field this evening, though opponents Panama may not be the whipping boys the spread suggests.
Argentina entered the competition on the back of some excellent results, extending their winning run to 5 games after beating Chile in the opening fixture of Group D. However, La Albiceleste haven’t always appeared convincing in their performances, frequently surpassing their opponents by just a single goal. Despite boasting some of the highest-scoring players in world football, Argentina struggle to capitalise on their talent and lack cohesive teamwork.
Panama are one of the competition’s smaller teams and considered underdogs to progress from the group stages. Los Canaleros encountered some difficulty beating Bolivia in their first match, and almost certainly do not possess the strength to threaten a higher-profile side such as Argentina. Although Hernan Dario Gomez’s squad are predicted to lose, it will probably not be by a significant margin if recent results are anything to go by. Panama haven’t been beaten by more than 2 goals since a 4-0 defeat to Ecuador over a year ago, playing 20 matches since, including encounters with some the best teams in the Americas.
I therefore believe that Argentina are favourites for the win, but Panama will mount a decent resistance and cover the very high spread.
BRANDON LEE
Yankees -128
New York is worth a look here at home against the Tigers. The Yankees just finished off a 4-game sweep of the Angels with Thursday's 6-3 win. New York scored an impressive 29 runs on 47 hits during the series and averaging 6.1 runs/game and hitting a ridiculous .335 as a team over their last 7 games. The Yankees should be able to keep the offense rolling in this one, as they square off against Detroit's Mike Pelfrey, who is 1-5 with a 5.37 ERA and 1.739 WHIP in 11 starts. Tigers are just 1-4 in Pelfrey's 5 road starts and he has a 5.68 ERA in 7 career starts against New York. Yankees will counter with C.C. Sabathia, who has found the fountain of youth. Sabathia owns a 2.58 ERA in 9 starts and has a 1.00 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
JOHN RYAN
Red Sox vs. Twins
Play: Twins +136
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-14 since 1997 good for 66% winners and made 24 units/unit wagered. Play against all favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (BOSTON) - good offensive team (over 5.4 runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after a combined score of 4 runs or less. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Boston is a money losing 133-163 (-36.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 3 seasons and is 10-24 (-16.9 Units) against the money line after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. Red Sox are also 8-21 (-15.5 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.000 the last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. Molitor is 12-5 (+11.7 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +125 or more as the manager of Minnesota.
Fundamental Discussion Points The Red Sox enter the series in Minnesota with a 2-5 mark over their last seven games. Minnesota went 5-2 against Boston last year, including a three-game sweep. Wright's team's record is 0-1 (-1.6 units) when starting against Minnesota with an ERA of 4.50. Robbie Grossman has a hit in two career at-bats and also worked a walk against Wright. Brian Dozier also collected a pair of hits off Wright while Kurt Suzuki went 3 for 3 with 2 walks and an RBI against him. Minnesota's bullpen is hot pitching under a 1.000 WHIP over the last 5 games and are better at home this season with a nice 3.13 ERA and 1.293 WHIP. Over the last 7 games the Twins are hitting .287 with .482 slugging and scoring 4.7 runs per game in that stretch. Minnesota will surprise Boston. Take the Twins.