Micah Roberts
Dodgers at Giants
Play: Giants +149
This is a fun one with a total listed at 5.5, and while I don't think there will be six runs scored I can't play the UNDER. Johnny Cueto's two starts against the Dodgers this season, both wins, scored seven runs or more. Kershaw beat Bumgarner twice, and one had 10 runs and the other had five. LA has gone 11-1 behind Kershaw this season and SF has gone 11-2 behind Cueto. Kershaw is 17-7 with a 1.60 ERA lifetime vs SF. The Giants have won four of seven this season vs LA. I'm going to take SF in a game I think will be decided by the bullpens.
JIMMY BOYD
Red Sox -124
It's no secret that Boston is one of the better teams in baseball, but I don't believe the Red Sox are getting near enough respect with Steven Wright on the mound. Price may be considered the ace of the staff, but Boston's best pitcher in 2016 has been Wright. He comes into this game with a 2.29 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 11 starts and has been even better on the road, where he has a 1.79 ERA and 0.970 WHIP in 6 starts.
Minnesota has been a major disappointment at 18-41 on the season and are just 11-19 at home. The Twins two-game winning streak came to an end with a 3-10 loss to Miami yesterday, dropping them to just 3-7 in their last 10. Minnesota will send out Tyler Duffey against one of the best offenses in the league and that's a problem. Duffey has a 5.92 ERA and 1.438 WHIP in 4 home starts and a 7.41 ERA and 1.822 WHIP in his last 3 outings, giving up 14 runs on 26 hits in 17 innings against some mediocre offenses in the Royals, A's and Rays.
Twins are just 9-31 in their last 40 off a loss, 8-28 in their last 36 as a dog of +100 to +150 and 2-11 in their last 13 against the AL East.
MICHAEL ALEXANDER
Oakland at Cincinnati
Play: Oakland -113
Oakland starter Gray provided the Athletics with a reason for optimism going forward when he came off the 15-day disabled list to hold Houston to one run on five hits over five innings on Sunday. A 14-game winner in each of the previous two seasons, Gray was outstanding on the road in 2015, posting an 8-3 record and 2.82 ERA. Cincinnati starter DeSclafani has been on the disabled list since the end of spring training with an oblique strain, but finally received the green light to rejoin the rotation after making three rehab starts. The 26-year-old DeSclafani put together a solid rookie season in 2015, but he stumbled at the end by giving up 17 runs while dropping his last three starts. He struggled at Great American Ball Park, logging a 5-9 record and unsightly 5.11 ERA in 16 starts.
TEDDY COVERS
Cubs vs. Braves
Play: Cubs -1½
It’s hard to make $$ betting Chicago as a straight bet right now; a team that is 6-3 in their last eight games, yet down more than a unit during that span because of the high prices bettors must lay to support them. But the Cubs remain the single most profitable team to support on the Run Line in all of baseball – when they win, they tend to win by margin!
My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting the Cubs on the Run Line in their last contest, an 8-1 blowout at Philadelphia on Wednesday. And there’s ample reason to expect another win by margin against the hapless Braves this evening.
The absolute best place to bet on the Cubs is on the road, where the price to support them is far more reasonable. The Cubs had the single best road record in baseball under Joe Maddon last year and they have the single best road record in MLB again this year; 19-9 through their first 28 road tilts. And when the best road team in baseball is facing off against the single worst team in MLB; a team that has gone a truly woeful 6-23 at home this year, you’re not going to find this bettor rambling on about how much ‘value’ there is on the underdog. The ‘value’ here is on the favorite minus a run and a half!
The Cubs have Jason Hammel on the hill here. He’s been pitching at an ace level all year, allowing just 15 earned runs in 11 previous starts. The Cubs are 9-2 in those outings, and eight of the nine wins have come by multi-run margins. Hammel has been eating up innings without high pitch counts and the bullpen behind him is rested and ready following yesterday’s off day.
Bud Norris is a fringe fifth starter on the very worst team in baseball. After a string of ineffective starts in April, Norris was demoted to the bullpen. But due to a lack of options for the hapless Braves, here he is making spot starts again. Atlanta is 1-5 in his six previous outings, with all five losses coming by multi-run margins and the lone win coming in a game where the Braves anemic offense actually scratched out six runs. This lineup has reached six runs or more a grand total of four times in their last 46 ballgames. I’m quite willing to bet that the Braves won’t be trading runs with the Cubs this evening. Modest Run Line chalk worth laying!
SPORTS WAGERS
Detroit (5 innings)+125
On the surface it would seem Mike Pelfrey is having a rough season. He signed a 2-year $16-million deal in the off season but it took two months for him to record a victory for his new team. Pelfrey is now just 1-5 with a 4.76 ERA but a closer look reveals he's been on the wrong end of some bad luck. With his never-ending hand licking, the former top-10 pick is a bit of an odd duck on the mound.His batting average of batted balls in play (BAPIP) is on the high side at .338 so a likely correction to the good is coming. His 29.3% fly-ball percentage is in the bottom half of the guys taking the bump today. We've already seen some improvement there, as Pelfrey hasn't given up a home run in his last two starts, which is down from the four he gave up during the two starts prior to that.
CC Sabathia is 1-2 with a 1.13 in his four starts since returning from the disabled list but this guy has been walking a fine line with his 37.2% fly ball percentage. Combine that with his low BAPIP of .281 and we trust that his fairy tale run is going to end soon. Sabathia is walking guys too, putting 3.78 men on per 9 innings. The Yankees continue to roll out one of the better bullpens in the American League so we will continue our attack on them in the first five innings. The Angels weak pitching made these Yankees bats look formidable and when you combine that with Sabathia's seemingly apparent resurgance, we get the perfect sell-high opportunity. Detroit figures to expose Sabathia early.
ATLANTA +213 over Chicago
We’ll turn to the law of averages that suggest the Cubbies cannot maintain their winning % and Atlanta cannot maintain their losing % over an extended period of time. The Cubbies incredible but misleading record has them overpriced again. Now it’s just a matter of when to step in against them and this is a good place to continue our Cubs fade from where we last left off.
Jason Hammel has been the beneficiary of a 25% hit rate that has helped pave the way to a 36% dominant start % and 9% disaster start % through 11 starts. Hammel's 25% hit rate is amazingly equal to that mark for the entire Cubs entire pitching staff, so his hit % could be sustainable at a level lower than his career 31% mark for the rest of this season, but probably not quite this low. Hammel is a solid pitcher, but he’s much closer to league average than his current ERA would indicate. His 83% strand rate won’t hold up much longer. Barring improvement with regard to his control and work vs. left-handed batters, Hammel could be in for some rough times ahead.
Bud Norris has appeared in 18 games this year but most of those occurred in relief. Many publications believed a bullpen role would allow him to shine but a crazy hit rate as a reliever and an unfavorable strand rate tanked his ERA. There is a much better pitcher here than his 5+ ERA suggests and his pen work may have served him well. Norris moved into the rotation on June 4 because the Braves put Mike Foltynewicz on the DL because of bone chips. Norris was pulled from the rotation earlier in 2016 after a series of poor starts but he has been better out of the bullpen. Going into play on June 4, he had an ERA of 2.25 and xERA of 3.55 over the prior 31 days. Norris has always been a starter and now has a chance to earn his rotation spot back. This is not a pitching mismatch but it’s priced as such.
Baltimore +115 over TORONTO
Kevin Gausman has zero wins this season in nine games started for the first place Orioles. Kevin Gausman is Baltimore’s best starter and it’s not even close. Both on the surface (3.52 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) and even more so underneath it (3.43 xERA, 13 BB, 50 K’s in 54 IP, 46% GB%), Gausman not winning a game is as bizarre as Marco Estrada stick-handling through lineups every start. Gausman’s 12.6% swing and miss rate is the seventh highest among all qualified starters in the AL. Bad luck is the only thing preventing him from winning.
With an 88 MPH fastball, with 15 walks over his last 37 innings, with a 29% groundball rate and 53% fly-ball rate (the highest in the majors) and with falling behind in the count to 56% of every batter he’s faced over his past five starts, Marco Estrada’s ERA over that span was 2.43. His ERA on the year is 2.41. However, Estrada’s xERA over his last five starts was 4.88, which is very close to his season xERA. A careful look at Estrada’s skills strongly suggests this breakout isn’t for real. His skills remain as below average as they have been through a mostly unremarkable career, and his lofty current value is based largely on an incredibly misleading ERA and some other favorable luck. Estrada is a pitcher that should not be dominating MLB lineups or pitching deep into games.Though Estrada has demonstrated the ability to sustain a relatively normal hit rate (his career mark is 31% across 797 IP), this years mark of 20% is not a level any pitcher can maintain over the long term. The Orioles are second in MLB in FB% and lead in HR, making this another risky start for the extreme fly-ball pitcher, as Rogers Centre increases LHB HR by 14% and RHB HR by 21%. If Estrada gets knocked out early here, it means nothing because every pitcher has rough outings. The numbers say that there are not many pitchers in baseball with worse skills than Marco Estrada so we should be seeing a string of blowups over the next four months. What we know for sure is that Estrada is overpriced to an extreme level.
Please don't send us anymore Estrada is great emails. Direct those to the oddsmakers who have Estrada listed as a small favorite at home here against a winless pitcher.
Also note: Games may be added or subtracted by 6:00 PM or thereabouts, as we monitor lines looking for value all day.
CINCINNATI +108 over Oakland
Oakland cannot be favoured on the road. The A’s are dead last or damn near it in every offensive category over the last month. The A’s have scored a combined 13 runs over their past five games at Houston and Milwaukee. They allowed 32 runs over that span. The two batters at the top of the A’s lineup, Coco Crisp and Billy Burns, are in a current funk that has seen the pair go a combined 8 for 76. Aside from Jed Lowrie, the rest of the A’s lineup features a bunch of .230 hitters.
Oakland is favored here because the Reds have little market appeal while Sonny Gray has both market appeal and pedigree. However, this isn’t the same Sonny Gray. Gary has a serious string of poor performances on the road this year, which has led to his 6.65 road ERA. Gray spent the minimum 15 days on the DL with a neck strain before returning on June 5 against Houston. Gray was facing a pitch count limit of 80 last start and ended up throwing only 69 pitches in five innings of work. He had a solid line of 5 K, 1 BB, 5 H, and 1 ER. Expect Gray to have a longer leash tonight, but given his poor performance this season, the jury is still out on whether Gray is over the issues that have caused his control to spike to 4.2 BB’s/9.
Anthony DeSclafani will be making his 2016 debut after an oblique injury sidelined him up to this point and he’s high on our radar. Last year, DeSclafani used his wicked curveball more as the season progressed and it became his primary third pitch by August. Above average first-pitch strike rate and his minor-league career supports his elite control. He also added more groundballs to the mix. DeSclafani will fly under the radar thanks to an elevated second half hit % and late start to this year. His unlucky hr/f masks his late growth in which he posted 9 K’s/9 and a 3.23 xERA over his final 11 games of last season. There is huge profit potential on DeSclafani because he is not well known and because he pitches for a team that can score runs.
Texas +138 over SEATTLE
Derek Holland goes for the Rangers here and he has seven pure quality starts in 11 tries. Holland’s peripherals are headed in the right direction but this wager is more of a fade against Seattle and its starter, Hisashi Iwakuma.
Aging and with a failed physical with the Dodgers last off-season, any time Hisashi Iwakuma struggles, questions about injuries inevitably crop up. While his recovery from a slow April seems to have alleviated the latest concerns, his results still lag behind. The 35-year-old Iwakuma is having trouble meeting expectations. The pinpoint accuracy isn’t there. He’s not getting as many first-pitch strikes, resulting in a few more walks than usual. A high number of fly balls turns out to be one of the biggest issues. While hr/f is often high, it's not affecting him much this year but that could change in a hurry. Iwakuma’s struggles can be summed up in his 17%/25% dominant start/disaster start split. Rarely dominant, a few disasters, but in general, a whole lot of middle-of-the-road performances. Look for more of the same for Iwakuma over the rest of the season, so when he’s priced in this range, he must be faded.
GoodFella
Oakland -110
Good value here IMO. A definite SP edge here with Gray who was extremely sharp his last outing at Houston. I watched every pitch of that game & was really impressed with Gray's command and stuff. These Reds have never seen Gray, so we have a nice edge there early on for this game. Add on the fact that we have a BIG edge bullpen wise. This A's bullpen is flying under the radar and they've been strong this season. They're deep and have a great back end to their bullpen. The Reds bullpen is a disaster and I really see great value on these Athletics in this spot and I am on these OAKLAND A's in this spot and at this price on Friday Night.
Bruce Marshall
Oakland -105
Rematch of the World Series in both 1972 and 1990, though this weekend series is a far cry from those old glory days. For the Reds, Anthony DeSclafini makes his first start of the season after going on the DL in spring training with a strained oblique. We usually don't want to back the A's when they are skidding, but make an exception tonight as starter Sonny Gray look sharp in return from the DL last Sunday in Houston, allowing only 1 run in 5 IP.
Harry Bondi
CLEVELAND -125 over LA Angels
We went against the floundering Halos last night with the Yankees for a Baseball "Steam Team" winner, and we'll fade them again tonight. LA has now lost four in a row and five of six and the offense is really scuffling. That doesn't bode well tonight against Cleveland's Corey Kluber, despite a 5-6 record, has pitched very well this year on the road with a 3.10 ERA. LA starter Hector Santiago has been dreadful as of late, posting a 9.69 ERA in his last three starts and the Angels are 12-17 at home this year, dropping 6.5 units.
Bob Balfe
Warriors/Cavs Over 206.5
The Warriors played about as bad as possible and still the last game went over the total. Both teams were not very good from the foul line and the Warriors just flat out had an off night. I believe we are going to see fireworks tonight and I would not be shocked to see Cleveland tie this series up tonight. The NBA is a circus. Every time a series shifts back to the opponents city it generates big money. I don’t like playoff basketball. You can’t find edges in 7 game series. For the most part these games come down to who gets the most calls to go their way. I believe tonight both teams are red hot from behind the three point line. Look for a ton of scoring in a very entertaining game.
Yankees -130
The Yankees have been playing pretty well the last few games and Sabathia is returning to old form every time he pitchers. Pelfrey has been brutal this year with his real problem being he home run ball and how many he gives up. Look for the Yankees to take control of this game with one big swing of the bat.
Anthony Michael
Golden St +2
The Cavs has their fun getting a win in game 3 with a huge early effort. Just don't see that happening again in game 4 - look for a much more determined Golden State team at the start of the game and look for Curry and Thompson to be much better shooting especially early. The Warriors beat Cleveland on the road last season in game 4 of the Finals, that looks to be the same case here this season.
Brad Wilton
Friday's comp play release is the Nationals on the Run Line over the Phillies.
These teams just met to end the month of May, and start the month of June, and it was Washington laying down the 3 game sweep of Philadelphia. 2 of the Nationals wins in that series came by at least 2 runs, so chances the Nats start this weekend series at home with a win by at least 2 runs seem pretty strong.
Especially when you consider that the Phils have dropped 10 of their last 13 games overall (including that sweep at home against the Nats), with 9 of those 10 losses coming by 2 runs or more.
The Nationals are back home after winning 6 of 9 on their road swing, and they will turn to the undefeated Stephen Strasburg to keep the Phillies bats quiet.
Strasburg owns a 5-0 mark at home with a lowly 2.11 ERA. No shot the Phils score more than a pair off of him in this spot.
Play Washington to win it by at least 2 runs.
4* WASHINGTON -1.5
Jeff Benton
Friday freebie is the Over in the Cubs-Braves opener from Turner Field.
Expect Chicago to do most of the scoring tonight, as they get to tee-off on Bud Norris who is the owner of an over 5 season ERA, and will be making just his second start since the end of April when he was moved to the Braves bullpen.
Chicago heads to Atlanta having played 2 of their last 3 Over the total, as the Cubbies have scored 5 runs or better in 5 of their last 7 games played.
The Braves have actually been putting some crooked digits on the scoreboard, as they have scored 15 runs over their last 4 games, and have played Overs in half of those 4 games.
Jason Hammel has a 2.14 season ERA, but if Atlanta is able to get a pair, then I feel Chicago can score the rest and help take this game Over the total.
Cubs-Braves Over on Friday night.
3* CUBS-ATLANTA OVER
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the Seattle Mariners, over the Texas Rangers. Be sure you're listing both scheduled starters in this one, as I like Hisashi Iwakuma over Derek Holland.
This is a pitching rematch from a previous meeting, and Seattle's right-handed starter is out for revenge. The 35-year-old import is in after pitching his best game of the year, albeit a 3-2 loss to Texas last Sunday.
Iwakuma had two unearned runs spoil a seven-inning, four-hit outing. He’s already 0-2 with a 4.00 ERA in three starts versus Texas this season, so look for him to throw his best stuff in this one.
Meanwhile, as Holland is looking to pick up his third-straight win in as many starts, this will be a tough atmosphere to throw in, and I think we're going to Seattle's bats come alive.
Take the home team and list both.
4* MARINERS
Scott Delaney
Take the Cincinnati Reds tonight, as my free play.
I'm not listing pitchers, and to be honest, this is more about the Oakland Athletics, who come in mired in a five-game losing streak.
So even though Anthony DeSclafani, an integral part of the team's rebuilding efforts, is making his season debut as he is finally recovered from an oblique injury he sustained in spring training, don't sweat who is on the mound for either team.
While I know Oakland (25-34) has fared well in interleague play, posting a winning record in 12 of the past 19 seasons including four straight, Cincinnati is 2-0 at Great American Ball Park against Oakland. Granted, the teams haven't met since 2013, when they split the season series 2-2, but the A's aren't playing good at the moment and we have to ride the momentum.
Oakland is hitting just .229 this month, the sixth worst in the bigs. On the flipside, Cincinnati has June's third-best batting average (.306), while the Reds rank second overall and first in the National League with 56 runs scored this month.
And for the season, at home, the Reds rank second overall and first in the National League with 50 home runs.
Take Cincinnati tonight.
5* REDS
BUSTER SPORTS
Miami Marlins at Arizona
Play: Miami +130
The starting pitchers for tonight's matchup are for the Marlins LH Justin Nicolino (2-3, 4.37 ERA) and he goes up against the Diamondbacks LH Patrick Corbin (3-5, 4.73) Corbin has not had the best start to 2016 especially at home where he has an ERA of 7.94 and a WHIP of 1.730. Unfortunately for the lefty he just hasn't been able to get it done even lately as he has a 7.41 ERA and a WHIP of 1.50 in his last 3 starts. As for the Marlins starter Justin Nicolino, the Marlins are hoping for better things from the 24 yr old left-hander. He has a respectable 3.57 ERA on the road this year and a closer look sees that for his career he has a 5-1 record on the road. The Marlins are really starting to hit the ball of late and they are 8-3 against lefties this year. Also backing our selection on the Marlins is the fact that the Marlins are a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 vs. National League West and they have won 5 straight against the Diamondbacks. W