Free Picks for Friday, June 9th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
WARRIORS AT CAVALIERS
PLAY: WARRIORS -6
31/56 from the field, 11/12 from the stripe and the team loses anyway. In spite of specular efforts from both LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, the Cavaliers still couldn’t beat this Golden State team on Wednesday night. So what happens if the two Cleveland superstars perform at less than a superhuman level tonight? The likely answer is the series ends and the Warriors pop the champagne corks.
I’m sure the Cavaliers will be highly motivated to avoid getting swept in this series. Guys like LeBron James just don’t quit. It would shock me if the Cavs simply roll over and submit tonight.
But this Warriors team is a monster, and there is zero chance they aren’t going to be incredibly revved up to close this out and complete the incredible 16-0 playoff perfecto. Let’s also mention the fact that Golden State was up 3-1 last year and lost the series to the Cavaliers. Different circumstances to be sure this time around, but the last thing the Warriors want is to give this opponent even a slim hope of coming all the way back.
From a value standpoint, Cleveland is the play. But let’s just say that value players haven’t exactly enjoyed a banner NBA post-season. The so-called squares have cleaned up betting chalk and Over. Sound familiar? Yeah, bookmakers are getting a little used to their public players beating them up, as this was a similar occurrence in the NFL this past season. Maybe not to the extent we’re witnessing in the NBA, but let’s just say it’s been a nice run for the general betting public.
I’m not about to stand in front of an oncoming freight train. I’m actually hoping the Cavaliers can find a way to win this game, as I have a Golden State in exactly five games ticket. But I can’t honestly say I like my chances. The number is higher than it ought to be on the value meter but I can’t go against the Warriors here.
Mike Lundin
Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -135
The Baltimore Orioles opened an eight-game road trip with a 6-1 loss at Washington on Thursday to drop to 1-10 in their last 11 away from home. They'll travel to the Bronx to take on the New York Yankees here the next day and my money is on the Bronx Bombers.
Baltimore hands the ball to Dylan Bundy (6-4, 2.93 ERA) who has pitched well this season. He was not particularly sharp his last time out though when he needed 100 pitches to get through just five innings of a 5-2 loss to Boston. The Orioles have lost four of his last five starts.
The Yankees turn to Jordan Montgomery (3-4, 3.67 ERA). The left-hander is coming off six innings of three-hit ball at Toronto to improve to 1-1 with a 1.06 ERA in his last three starts. That includes a 3-2 loss at Baltimore on May 29 (pitching opposite Bundy), and I think Montgomery and the Yankees will get revenge at home this time around.
Scott Spreitzer
Royals vs. Padres
Play: Padres -116
Jhoulys Chacin's career depends upon pitching at Petco Park as he is 2-1 with a 1.36 ERA and .157 opponent batting average at home this season compared to terrible numbers on the road. Kansas City is 9-17 on the road and 6-16 its last 22 road games against right-handed starters. Eric Skogland had a great major league debut against the Tigers, but then was knocked out after two innings and a rain delay against the Indians when he gave up four runs on four hits with two walks in an 8-0 loss. San Diego has won five of its last seven home games and the Royals have scored fewer runs on the road than any other team in the majors while batting .219 with a .650 OPS. The edge goes to San Diego and Chacin.
Darryl Tucholski
White Sox vs. Indians
Play: Indians -250
Usually I tend not to play these type of odds. but with Kluber having two 10 strikeout games in his past 3 appearances, confidence is through the roof. Miguel Gonzalez on the other hand, has given up 13 ER in his last 18.2 IP. with 5 HR's allowed.
Marc Lawrence
Minnesota at San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -109
Edges - Giants: Moore 2.57 ERA and 1.09 WHIP home as opposed to 7.94 ERA and 1.91 WHIP away this season… Twins: Gibson 7.23 ERA wit 1.87 WHIP overall this season… With the Giants 5-0 the last five games in this series, and 5-0 the five home games in this series, we recommend a 1* play on San Francisco.
Cappers Club
Mets vs. Braves
Play: Over 9½
The New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves face off on Friday night, and with two pitchers who have really struggled on the mound, the over has all kinds of value.
On the mound for the Mets is Matt Harvey who has struggled on and off the field. He comes into this game with a 4-3 record and an ERA of 5.43.
In his last start he went five innings and gave up six runs. He has already had two starts against the Braves this year and gave up six runs in each of those outings.
On the mound for the Braves is Julio Teheran. He comes into this game with a 5-4 record and an ERA of 5.40. In his last start he had a rough outing giving up 11 hits and 7 runs in five innings. In his two starts against the Mets this year he has given up a total of eight runs.
Some trends to note. Over is 20-5-3 in Mets last 28 vs. National League East. Over is 5-1-2 in Harveys last 8 starts overall. Over is 7-0 in Teherans last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Wesley Scott
Royals vs. Padres
Play: Padres -115
The Kansas City Royals (26-33 Overall, 9-17 Away) face off against the San Diego Padres (23-38 Overall, 13-16 Home) in game one of this three game set at Petco Field in San Diego.
The Royals are coming off a solid series against the Astros at home. The Royals split the series against the Astros 2-2. In last nights game, the Royals only had three hits, which led to them losing a 1-1 lead in the top of the ninth.
Kansas City's bullpen allowed five runs in the top of the ninth, to give Houston the win, 6-1.
TheRoyals send rookie Eric Skoglund (1-1, 4.32 ERA) out to get a win against the Padres. Skolglund tipped his cap to the crowd after his first major league outing, then was roughed up in his second go round against the Indians in his most recent start.
Jhoulys Chacin (4-5, 4.65 ERA) takes the ball tonight for the Padres. Chacin has been excellent at home this season. He carries a 1.36 ERA at Petco so far this year.
Chacin has faced the Royals in one start. He is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA against them.
Dustin Hawkins
Athletics vs. Rays
Play: Rays -117
Oakland is 11-28 against the money line in road games vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. Oakland is 4-13 against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. The A"s are only 8-20 on the road so far this year.
Chase Diamond
Reds vs. Dodgers
Play: Reds +182
This game features the 29-30 Reds and the 36-25 Dodgers. Amir Garrett came into the season with a'lot of talent and promise. I don't think it is possible for this guy to look any worse and the Reds have been playing solid ball all year. Rich Hill is nothing special 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA and the Dodgers are off a huge series against the Nationals. Big let down spot tonight jump on the Reds and the huge plus money.
Mike Anthony
Cincinnati vs. Los Angeles
Play: Los Angeles -187
After a relatively slow start, the 35 -year-old Adrian Gonzalez has picked things up at the plate, batting .280 with 7 hits and 3 RBI over his last 7 days. The Dodgers have been batting pretty decently with a .253 avg as a team. With another recent lousy poor performance, Cincinnati continues to owns a lackluster 4.93 ERA, which is verification to just how lame they have been this season. Cincinnati has only 1 pitcher on the year that is worth the time - and this isn't the pitcher worth the time. This is a pitcher friendly ballpark and I say the Dodgers get an easy win on Friday night
Power Sports
Chicago at Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland
The White Sox face two key disadvantages going into Friday's opener in Cleveland. One is the Indians had Thursday off and they did not (lost 7-5 at Tampa Bay). The other is they have to go up against Corey Kluber, who looked as strong as ever in his return from the DL last week. As indicated by the money line here, oddsmakers believe this matchup is as lopsided as it gets. I agree.
Last Friday, Kluber threw six scoreless innings of two-hit ball against Oakland, striking out 10. That was certainly a welcome sight for a Cleveland club that at the time had dropped three of four. They would go onto take three of four from the A's over the weekend, but things have since soured again w/ them dropping four of five (all on the road), including a pair of games in Colorado earlier this week. That Oakland series took place at Progressive Field, however, and while the Tribe shocking has a losing record at home, I expect that to change very shortly. As soon as this weekend, perhaps.
The White Sox got off to a surprising start this year, but as I pointed out in my analysis yday for their game w/ Tampa Bay, they're now in last place in the AL Central. I took the Rays and watched them race out to a commanding 6-0 lead. Overall, they've dropped seven of their last eight. Miguel Gonzalez and his 6.27 ERA over his L3 starts certainly aren't likely to overcome Kluber in this spot, especially since he's 1-5 on the road this year w/ a 5.74 ERA and 1.606 WHIP.
Jim Feist
Phillies at Cardinals
Pick: Under
Philadelphia is #26 in baseball in runs scored, #26 in on base percentage. At least they have a good arm going in Jeremy Hellickson, 8-3-2 under the total when Hellickson starts. St. Louis is #27 in baseball in runs scored, 5-0 under the total during game 1 of a series. Michael Wacha has a 2.94 ERA at home and this shapes up as a defensive duel.
Wunderdog
New York @ Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta +102
The NY Mets have a losing road record and play their third road game of a six-game trip. The Mets are on a 9-16 run, 3-8 on the road. New York starter Matt Harvey (5.43 ERA) has walked 32 in 61 innings along with 59 hits. He has walked four or more hitters five times in his past seven outings, plus has allowed six runs three times in 11 starts. One of those games was in Atlanta on May 2, dropping his career mark against the Braves to 3-6 with a 4.76 ERA in 10 starts. He's 1-2 with a 7.77 ERA in three starts against the Braves in 2017. Atlanta has won four of the last six, cashing twice as a dog. The offense has scored 41 runs the last six contests and Atlanta starting pitchers have worked at least seven innings in each of the past three games. The Mets are also 8-17 when the moneyline is +125 to -125 this season.
Jason Sharpe
Miami vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh
The Pittsburgh Pirates Tyler Glasnow is expected to get the start here in this one. Glasnow has had a rough season so far but is just 23 years old and considered one of the better young pitchers in the game. The 6-foot-8 right-hander has faced some very tough offenses this year, but he gets a break in this one going up against a Miami squad that's rated below average offensively this season versus RHP. The other issue Glasnow has had to deal with this is control issues, but he seems to be improving quite a bit in that area of late with a walk rate of just 3.43 his last four starts to go along with a solid 60%+ first-pitch strike rate to back those numbers up. If he can get the ball over the plate early in the count and get ahead hitters then Glasnow becomes a much-improved version of himself and is undervalued in this one.