SPORTS WAGERS
Golden State -5½ over CLEVELAND
If you’re the Cavaliers, it can’t be an easy day to head to the arena. After all, Cleveland gave the Warriors all they had in Game 3. The Cavs played great defensively for the first time in the series and they got a pair of superstar performances from both LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. Short of throwing the kitchen sink Golden State's way, that was very likely the best Cavs effort we are going to see in this series. Cleveland was unable to hold a second half lead and even led by as many as six with less than two minutes to play, but it wasn't enough. The Warriors big free agent signing, Kevin Durant, took the game over late and scored seven unanswered points to send the Cavs and their fans home empty handed and dejected. Those that spotted the 3½-points with the Warriors know they got a huge break and surely won’t be anxious to spot almost twice that after witnessing last game.
You'll hear all day that the “close-out” game is the toughest but this line strongly suggests that it’s all over. Do the Cavs really want to head back to Oakland just to get mopped up on a Monday night? Is the difference between losing in four or five really that different? Not really but it’s more than just that. Golden State’s motivation here will be sky-high because they can make history with a 16-0 post-season record. Imagine that.
Perhaps most telling is Tyronn Lue’s post-game press conference in which he sat down, smiled the entire time and answered questions. After a loss, coaches are usually steamed up like Greg Popovich was when Kawhi Leonard was injured by Zaza Pachulia in Game 1 of the Western Finals. “THEY TOOK SOMETHING AWAY FROM US” screamed Popovich. History is lined with coaches going off after a playoff loss but Tyronn Lue had the same look and disposition as Brad Stevens had when the Cavs destroyed his Celtics in the Eastern Finals. That look is one that says, “We’re simply outmanned. We can’t compete with this team 95% of the time". Lue is right. Nobody can compete with the Warriors and the Cavs failure to win while playing their best game of the entire playoffs last game, very likely seals their fate for this sweep. The points may appear appealing considering what transpired last game but mindsets are completely different for this Game 4 and it’s not in the Cavs favor. Lay the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +116 over PITTSBURGH
Unfortunately for us, it just so happened that Edison Volquez’s next turn after his no-hitter came against the Pirates. That wager last night was an angle or situational play against Volquez more than anything else so it’s not going to deter us from switching gears and fading the miserable Pirates. After blowing two significant late leads against Baltimore before getting smoked last night, the Pirates looked like a mentally defeated team last night because they are. Furthermore, with a 65-97 over its past 162 games, the Pirates have the worst record in baseball over that span and now they’re favored with Tyler Glasnow on the mound? We don’t think so.
The reason the Pirates are favored is because they’re at home and because Vance Worley is throwing for the Fish. Starting in 2011, Worley has 609 MLB innings over his career. He has a 3.89/4.39 ERA/xERA split and really doesn’t offer up a lot of upside but we couldn’t care less. The Pirates are a defeated team with no momentum that are playing with their heads down while the Marlins are coming on big time. Miami is 9-3 over its past 12 games. They have the third highest OBP and batting average in the league over that span right behind the Astros and Mariners. The Fish easily took the opener of this series last night when they abused a very good starter in Gerrit Cole and they’ll ride that momentum and good form into this game while taking a big step down in class when facing Glasnow.
Glasnow is not what the Pirates were hoping for. Walks have been a major problem, starting with the 2016 season even in the minors. His 2017 results in the majors have been even worse with his first-pitch strike rate dropping eight percentage points. He simply can't walk this many batters and find success at this level. A high hit% and low strand % have also contributed to Glasnow’s misery, but as his xERA and overall skills show, even if we factor in that bad luck out, he's pitching poorly. Glasnow’s WHIP is 1.87 so he’s pitching with two guys on base almost every inning. That’s taxing and now throw in the Marlins speed to make him even more uneasy. Glasnow’s ERA is 6.97 and his xERA is 5.54. We’re not suggesting that Worley is the better pitcher here but he’s not the one spotting a price. Worley throws strikes and will not become unnerved while Glasnow is a mental mess that can’t throw strikes. Worley is also pitching for the vastly superior team and bullpen, thus making the resurgent Marlins a must play here.
Oakland +116 over TAMPA BAY
Alex Cobb just might be getting pushed a little too hard. This is a pitcher that threw just 22 innings all of last year after missing the entire 2015 season because of TJS. Just to recap quickly, prior to this season, Cobb had thrown just 22 innings combined in the previous two seasons. This year, Cobb has already thrown 72 frames. In four of his last five starts, he has thrown 107, 115, 106 and 102 pitches. In his last start, he was tagged for 14 hits and nine earned runs in five innings over 96 pitches before he was mercilessly yanked. Two starts ago, Cobb again lasted just five innings. It would appear to us that Cobb is tiring. Over his last five starts, he has an unacceptable WHIP of 1.50, a .302 BAA and a ERA/xERA split of 5.87/4.82.
You might recall last week when the oddsmakers had Andrew Triggs a small dog at home to the Nationals with Stephen Strasburg starting. Triggs did not fair well that game (3.2 IP - 9H - 6ER) but that’s not the point. The point is that the oddsmakers liked his chances against Washington and Strasburg. If we played Triggs in that matchup against Strasburg, we can surely play him at almost the exact same price against Tampa Bay with Alex Cobb starting. Triggs made his MLB debut last season and it was anything but impressive. However, this unheralded prospect dealt with calf and back issues. His K-rate and groundball % fuelled a skill set that exploded in the 2nd half last year and has shown glimpses of the same this year. With a rotation gig now set in stone for the time being, Triggs is a shiny object at the dollar store and if we’re sticking to playing value, this one must be played because we’re getting the same price on Triggs v Cobb as we got with Triggs v Strasburg.
BOSTON -1½ +144 over Detroit
Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez will avoid surgery for now, but he will rest for three to four weeks with a right knee subluxation. Rodriguez received a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews, which revealed no ligament damage. However, he could require surgery at some point, which would cost him five or six months. His next turn in the rotation (and perhaps several more), is expected to be filled by Brian Johnson, who makes this start. Johnson left his last start for AAA-Pawtucket on June 3 under strange circumstances. What was variously reported as a calf rupture, a calf strain, and a hamstring strain, is now being described as a loosely compacted part of the pitching mound which gave way while he was pitching. He did successfully complete a 33 pitch bullpen session on June 6 and note that his last major league start (May 27) was a complete game shutout against the Mariners.
Johnson was a first-round pick of Boston in 2012. He has overcome a variety of maladies throughout his career, including an elbow injury as well as anxiety in 2016. He has a big body and also has the pitch mix to succeed. None of his offerings are considered plus but he sequences his pitches well and changes speeds with poise, self-confidence and composure. Johnson induces groundballs with his 87-91 mph sinker that he locates low in the zone.
Readers of this space know we began discussing Jordan Zimmermann’s declining skills well over two years ago, well ahead of anyone else. Zimmermann is 5-4 after 11 starts this season but he could just as easily be 0-11. Zimmermann brings a grim 1.56 WHIP into this start to go along with his 5.98/6.22 ERA/xERA split. His 30% groundball rate is the third worst rate in the game among qualified starters. Zimmermann throws straight fastballs right down Broadway and then closes his eyes and hopes for the best. With 39 K’s in 62 frames, an 8% swing and miss rate and a ton of hard hit balls in play, it’s not a matter of how well he pitches, it’s a matter of how many runs he’ll give up before Manager Brad Ausmus is forced to turn to his vomit-inducing pen. The Red Sox have a great chance to put up a bunch of crooked numbers, giving us a great possibility of cashing this ticket.
ARIZONA -1½ +160 over Milwaukee
The Diamondbacks rotation continues to thrive, sitting with the MLB’s 3rd best staff ERA (3.55), a number that they hope will improve with the expected return of Taijuan Walker in the coming days. Filling in and performing admirably in Walker’s absence has been Randall Delgado. The 27-year-old was once a prospect of some acclaim (#22 on the 2012 top 100), moving to the bullpen after a few unsuccessful stints in the rotation. Over the course of his career, he’s made 51 starts, posting a 4.19 ERA across those 274.7 IP. However, his command against LHB had been in steady decline—with weak ratios in 2014, 2015 and 2016 in recent years. In 42 innings this year, Delgado has posted impressive command ratios against lefties, which in turn has fuelled his 3.24 ERA (3.45 xERA) this season, making it difficult for management to send him back to the bullpen. In fact, manager Torey Lovullo recently expressed the desire to keep him in the rotation so Delgado currently looks like a solid bet to stick around. Delgado has a BB/K split of 7/39 in 42 innings with a 69% first-pitch strike rate and 13% swing and miss rate. Over his last 23 frames, his BB/K split is 3/24. Throw in an increasing groundball rate that is up from 41% in his first three starts to 46% over his last four and everything is trending strongly in the right direction for Delgado. Aside from that, the Snakes are deadly at home with a 24-8 record.
Milwaukee is in first place in the NL Central but we’re putting them high on our fade list for the time being. Plenty of Brewers all got hot at the same time to start the year but their numbers are starting to “normalize” and as a result, the frequent victories are likely going to be frequent losses. Milwaukee strikes out the most of any team in the NL and second most in the league. That does not bode well for them in this series.
Over his last 28 frames, Zach Davies has a BB/K split of 8/14 with a 3.54 ERA. On the year, Davies has struck out 46 batters in 63 innings while walking 24. That reveals weak command. Davies WHIP of 1.55 is dreadful and just asking for trouble. Davies has had some really nice games this season because when he’s on, he keeps hitters off balance with his good pitch mix. However, he’s had lots of disaster starts in his short career and this could be another one. He has not pitched past six full innings even one time this season and hasn’t even made it out of the 6th inning in nine of his 12 starts. His poor durability adds to his risk and so the fade on both the Crew and Davies is on.
Will Rogers
Toronto vs. Seattle
Pick: Toronto
The set-up: Seattle lost 2-1 to Minnesota on Thursday, ending a five-game winning streak. It's also just the team's second loss in its last 11 and speaking of 11, the Mariners will conclude an 11-game homestand with this weekend's three-game series with the Toronto Blue Jays. The Mariners had just seven hits last night and went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position, scoring only a single run after compiling 46 runs during their five-game winning streak (9.2 per). The Blue Jays come to Seattle in last place in the AL East, despite having won 11 of their last 16 games.
The pitching matchup: Joe Biagini (1-4 & 3.31 ERA) gets the ball for Toronto and Sam Gaviglio (2-1 & 3.13 ERA) for Seattle. Biagini is 0-3 over his last four outings (Jays are 1-3) and has pitched in tough luck his last two outings, allowing three ERs in 13 innings (2.08 ERA) but getting one run of support, He owns a solid 1.02 WHIP and is limiting opposing batters to a .216 average over 49 innings on the season. Biagini tossed five innings of four-hit shutout ball in a 4-0 win over the Mariners back on May 12 and is unscored upon in 8 2/3 career innings over four appearances against the Mariners. Gaviglio has won his last two starts and has given up one or fewer ERs in three of his four big-league outings, to-date. Gaviglio's major-league debut came at Toronto on May 11, when he gave up one run and two hits and struck out four against Toronto in a two-inning relief appearance.
The pick: Seattle is red-hot but note that the Mariners scored just six runs while being swept in a four-game set in Toronto from May 11-14 and Biagini has pitched WAY better than his record. I'm taking the visiting team in this one.
Brad Wilton
Friday night comp play is the Rays over the A's.
Back to the road the Athletics go, and at 8-20 on the highway, not sure I like the idea of backing Oakland against a Rays team that is 18-14 at home, and fresh off wins in their last pair of games against the White Sox.
Starters Andrew Triggs and Alex Cobb sport very similar lines over their last 3, and for the season for that matter, as both are winless in their last 3, and both stand at under .500 for the season.
Cobb does own a respectable line versus Oakland for his career at 3-2, with a 2.44 ERA. Going to look for Cobb's work against the A's to be the difference maker tonight, and of course it doesn't hurt that Oakland owns the fewest road wins in the majors.
Go with Tampa Bay on Friday.
2* TAMPA BAY
Jeff Benton
Friday's free play winner is the Orioles and Yankees to hold Under the total with Dylan Bundy and Jordan Montgomery doing the work on the mound.
This is already the 10th meeting of the season between these A.L. East rivals, and the Over stands at 8-1! The one game that did not play Over the total? Well, that would be May 29th's 3-2 O's win in which Bundy and Montgomery were doing the dealing.
The Yankees have played 3 of their last 5 games Under the total, and rookie Jordan Montgomery has seen each of his last 5 starts land Under the total, while 6 of his 10 overall starts have landed Under the total.
As for Dylan Bundy, the O's hurler has seen each of his last 3 starts land Under the total, and the Under is 7-4-1 for the season when Bundy toes the rubber.
Big weekend set in the Bronx starts with an Under with a pair of good, young hurlers on the hill.
4* BALTIMORE-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Thursday was on the Angels of Anaheim, against the Detroit Tigers, in their Motown matinee. That turned out to be an easy winner. Tonight my free winner is going against the Angels, as they open a series in Houston, against the Major League-leading Astros.
This could make for an interesting American League West rivalry this weekend, but for the opener, the Halos have to get used to this brutal humidity, as they continue this road trip.
Houston is never a fun place to play - there or Miami - as two of the most three humid cities in America. The hands become sweaty for pitchers, the bat is harder to grip, the breathing can be brutal.
It's an overall uncomfortable environment.
And tonight the Astros will take advantage of the homefield edge.
Play the Astros on the Run Line.
3* ASTROS -1.5
Jack Brayman
And I hit another free winner, as I nailed the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday. Today I'm taking the Minnesota Twins, who beat me last night in Seattle, and move on to San Francisco for a weekend set with the Giants.
I'll leave it up to you if you want to list pitchers, as I completely understand if you want Twins-ace Ervin Santana on your ticket. I, personally, will not, as I'm basing it on Minnesota's overall team - not just the pitching.
After all, after opening the season 5-0 with a 0.66 ERA, Santana has sprinkled three sketchy outings, allowing 18 earned runs, among three solid starts, in which he allowed just one earned run allowed.
Again, I'm more intrigued with how well the American League Central-leading Twins have played this year, particularly on the road. Minnesota, which is a dismal 12-18 in Minneapolis, is 18-8 while ordering room service.
San Francisco, which has lost seven of its past 10 games, is 13-14 at home and sitting near the bottom of the National League West, just ahead of the San Diego Padres.
Take Minnesota, as it opens this Interleague series with a win.
1* MINNESOTA
TEDDY COVERS
Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -140
Money has poured in on the Yanks this morning, and for good reason. Even AFTER the market move towards New York, the Yankees are still worthy of a wager in MLB action this evening.
Baltimore is playing bad baseball these days, 917 over their last 26 ballgames. That record would be even worse, but they took advantage of a couple of bullpen meltdowns to beat the Pirates late earlier in the week. But the Orioles gained no momentum off those two victories, suffering another blowout loss in DC last night, making up an earlier rainout. And there’s ample reason to expect more of the same tonight in the Bronx against the first place Yankees.
Buck Showalter’s lineup isn’t hitting, held to three runs or less ten times in their last 15 ballgames. Slugger Manny Machado is likely to sit with a sore wrist tonight, taking a big bat out of the equation. The Orioles bullpen has been spotty at best with closer Zack Britton on the DL; not the trustworthy unit it was earlier in the season. And Baltimore starter Dylan Bundy is a regression waiting to happen.
Bundy’s mainstream stats are rock solid: 6-4 with a 2.93 through his first 11 starts of the campaign. But his xFIP is nearly two full runs higher than his ERA because of two ugly advanced metric stats that stand out like a sore thumb. Bundy isn’t generating strikeouts, averaging just 6.2 K’s/9 innings. And he isn’t generating ground balls, with a ground ball rate in the 31% range.
There are three other big league pitchers with fewer than 6.5 K’s/9 and a ground ball rate of under 35% this year: Jordan Zimmerman, Bronson Arroyo and Jeremy Hellickson. All three of those hurlers have ERA’s of 4.50 or higher, and xFIP’s of 5.50 or higher. Given Bundy’s profile, he’s living on borrowed time.
And Bundy will be going up against one of the most prolific lineups in baseball, ranked #4 in MLB in runs scored this season. Those hot bats were on full display during the week, pounding out 21 runs in their three game set against the Red Sox; primed to continue their hot hitting barrage tonight.
The Yankees bullpen is one of the elite units in MLB, capable of turning this into a six or seven inning game. That’s good news for Jordan Montgomery, who doesn’t eat up innings but has been a very effective ‘back of the rotation’ starter for Joe Girardi and company.
Zack Cimini
Kansas City vs. San Diego
Pick: San Diego
Poor conclusions from prior series typically carry over into the next. Last night the Royals watched their closer Kelvin Herrera have an epic meltdown turning a tied game into a 6-1 loss. From the Padres side of things they've lost five straight after inflated value from sweeping the Cubs. Facing a non-divisional opponent in the Royals should turn things around for them. Grab the value on the home Padres.
Bruce Marshall
Minnesota at San Francisco
Pick: Minnesota
After salvaging the finale of the midweek set vs. hot Seattle, the Twins might find easier going this weekend in San Francisco. The Giants have lost the last three starts by Matt Moore, whose ERA is a less-than-impressive 5.22. Prefer Minnesota and Ervin Santana, who struggled in his last start vs. the Angels but had led the AL in ERA prior to that loss (he's still at a very good 2.44 ERA this season).
The Prez
Texas Rangers at Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals -164
The Texas Rangers are one of three American League clubs that take to National League venues this Friday night in a contest against the Washington Nationals. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park with the Rangers' Andrew Cashner (2-5, 3.39 ERA) opposing the Nationals' Tanner Roark (6-2, 3.95).
Cashner is coming off a start that saw him allow five runs on 11 hits over six innings of work in a loss to the Houston Astros. While his turn against the Toronto Blue Jays to starts back resulted in a fifth quality start over six of his final May starts his stats skill set doesn't match his 3.39 ERA. In Cashner's one run over seven inning win against the Jays he closed the contest with a 2.92 ERA over nine starts. He accomplished this despite walking more batters than he's punched out (23:27 K:BB ratio). His 4.90 FIP is nearly two runs higher than his ERA and his swinging strike rate is a ridiculously low six percent. Additionally he doesn't induce enough ground balls to make up for pitching to contact and a matchup against the best offensive in baseball is nothing short than a big ticket play against.
The Nat's starting pitcher, Roark, has combated his command issues allowing a mere two walks in his last 21 2/3 frames and his underlying peripherals match his surface stats. The Washington right-hander doesn’t miss enough bats to be anything more than a fourth starter in most rotations his matchup today against Cashner and the support of his teammates bats is easily enough to make him a 2:1 favorite tonight at a value, albeit high, price.
When Roark has scuffled this year it has been due to a low chase rate versus teams that draw walks. The Rangers are one of baseball’s Top-5 teams at chasing pitchouts outside the K-Zone. Batters are not going out of the zone against Roark.
Harry Bondi
OAKLAND (+110) over Tampa Bay
Won with the Yankees last night and tonight will back the Oakland Athletics. We know the A’s have the fewest road wins in the majors but Tampa Bay is really banged up and will be without second baseman Brad Miller, outfield Kevin Kiermaier and possibly catcher Derek Norris who is under investigation for physically abusing his former fiancee. Oakland starter Andrew Triggs is one of the road bright spots for the A’s having gone 3-1 away from home while Tampa starter Alex Cobb has lost his last 3 home starts.
Bob Balfe
Cavs +6
All it takes is one win from Cleveland to get people talking and for some small hope to be talked about over the weekend. The worst thing for the NBA is a sweep tonight. In the last game we had Cleveland and that just turned out to be just dumb bad luck as they failed to score in the final 3 mins of play. I expect Cleveland to finish stronger tonight and to get themselves at least one win in this series.
Nationals -1.5 +115
The Nationals have been the best in baseball against right handed pitching and tonight are going up against a shaky bullpen. This is a type of game the Nationals can hit double digits with runs. The Nationals for some reason play great under the lights and should win in a high scoring game.