Power Sports
Stephen F. Austin vs. West Virginia
Pick: Stephen F. Austin
I like WVU a lot and certainly think they are capable of making a run, possibly all the way to the Final Four. But the 'Neers got a tough 1st rd draw here w/ Stephen F Austin, who is coached by Bob Huggins' disciple Brad Underwood. This is not SFA's first time dancing & they will be a tough out.
SFA is drastically underseed as a #14 as they once again rolled through the Southland Conference (only team in the country not to lose a single conference game this year!) & that includes two 20+ point victories in their tournament. The key here is how the Lumberjacks' style matches up well w/ WVU's, which is something most Mountaineers' opponents cannot say. While West Virginia ranks #2 nationally in turnover rate, SFA happens to rank #1. The Lumberjacks turn their opponents over on 25.9% of all possessions, which is obviously quite phenomenal.
Other characteristics to like about Stephen F Austin is the fact they both shoot (48.4%) and rebound the ball well and are particularly adept at "cleaning up" their own misses. WVU's darkhorse status (when it comes to making the Final Four) does them no favors here. Them giving up 81 points in the Big 12 Final (admittedly to Kansas) was somewhat of a bad sign as well. If they make it through here, then the Mountaineers can do damage. But they must make it through first. Take the points.
Raphael Esparza
Oregon (+250) To Win the West Region
Was torn with either playing Oregon to win the West Region or taking the PAC-12 at 15-1 to win the NCAA Championship Game. Either way I feel that the Oregon Ducks are one of the most silent No. 1 teams in the NCAA Tournament. Oklahoma is the No.2 seed in the West, and I see them having trouble early in this tournament. The more I look at the West teams the more I think Oregon might have the easiest path to the Final Four. Oregon comes into the tournament winners of 8 straight, and they easily won the PAC-12 tournament in Las Vegas. Right now the Ducks are playing their best basketball. I feel the Ducks will be a very tough out in this tournament.
Vernon Croy
Syracuse (+1) over Dayton
This pick falls into one of my CBB systems, and I have Syracuse winning this game by 6 to 10 points Friday. Syracuse has played a much tougher schedule than Dayton this season and it will show in this game. The Orange are the better overall team here with major wins over Duke, Texas A&M and Notre Dame, while all of their losses were very close winnable games. There are too many mismatches for this Dayton team to overcome as far as talent goes, and the Orange are also the better coached team. Two years ago Dayton upset Syracuse, so they will be more than ready to play this time around. Dayton ranks 201st in the country at defending the long range shot with opponents shooting 34.9% against them, and that was against a lot weaker opponents than Syracuse. Play Syracuse with confidence as they should move on.
Strike Point Sports
Hawaii (+5.5) over California
The Golden Bears have a ton of talent, and several pro-ready players, but they are young. And while Cal has been a scary team to face the past month or so, I wonder how this team will do on a stage this big. Hawaii is made up of proven scorers and playmakers, and even though they hail from WAC, this team is more than capable to give the Bears a run for their money here. Hawaii can score the ball, and I don't think they'll shy away from this opportunity and will make the most of this contest. Hawaii cashes with the points against their West Coast opponent.
Allen Eastman
South Dakota State (+9.5) over Maryland
I think that this game might be a potential classic 12-5 upset in the first round. Maryland is a team that has played down to competition all season long. This Terps team has not been strong on the road, and I really think they can struggle here against a very good SDSU team. Maryland is just 1-4 ATS in its last five NCAA Tournament games, and they should not be this strong of a favorite. Maryland has only gone 3-5 SU in its last eight games and doesn't have any momentum. The books and the public have overvalued them all year. South Dakota State is a dangerous team. They went on the road this year and beat Minnesota, a team from the Big Ten like Maryland, by 14 points. They also have a win over MTSU (another tournament team) and the Jackrabbits beat Illinois State badly early this season. That same Illinois State team almost beat Maryland in a November tournament. I think that this is going to be a close game to the end, and I will take the points.
Jason Sharpe
Texas A&M (-13) over UW-Green Bay
Texas A&M is peaking at the right time as they come into this game having covered 5 of their last 6 games, with the lone exception being a 5-point loss in overtime last game when they were getting +4 against Kentucky. The Aggies led the SEC in defensive efficiency this season and start 4 seniors here who are playing their first NCAA tournament game and who should be pumped up for this one. After playing 3 NCAA tourney teams and superstar Ben Simmons LSU squad in each of their last 4 games, this one should feel much easier for the Aggies here. Wisconsin Green Bay surprised everyone by winning the Horizon League tourney last week. The Horizon League is way down this year and as bad as it has been in a long time this season. This is a smaller, quick team who loves to push the pace, but this will be a struggle for them here. With all the possessions expected here the Aggies should continue to pull away and cover this number.
Sleepyj
Blazers / Pelicans Under 216.5
Most of the bettors might jump all over this over...Well I'm banking the others side will hit tonight....Portland has had a tough stretch of games over the last two weeks...They haven't won many games, but they are still in the playoff hunt...The road for them won;t get any easier after this game tonight...They plays the Mavs twice in a row and the Clippers after that...A few road games mixed in as well over the next 5 games...So this game IMO is a must win...I really believe the Trailblazers come out to play solid defense..They now the Pelicans can score, but they also know the Pelicans stink on defense..So the correct way for Portland to play this game coming off a back to back is to bring the defense...Pelicans can control the tempo here, but i think the Trailblazers can slow them here...I can see a ton of bad shots and a low shooting % from both ball clubs here...Portland just played the Spurs last night so the legs may be tired late and some shots may come up short...I'm banking on a low scoring qtr and i'll ban it's the 1st or 3rd with some tough Trailblazers defense..I also like Portland -1.5 as well..I'll play both wager for 1 unit each.
Brad Wilton
Too many points to ask Texas A&M to cover in their meeting with Horizon League rep Wisconsin Green Bay.
The Aggies did well in reaching the SEC Tournament Final before bowing in overtime to mighty Kentucky, but the SEC wasn't exactly a juggernaut conference this season, and A&M had a prolonged slide (losing 4 in a row and 5 of 6 to end January and head into February) before Billy Kennedy got his team back on track.
That being the case, this spread appears to be a few baskets too many against a Phoenix team that proved their mettle by winning 4 games in 4 days to cop the Horizon bid. Wisconsin Green Bay was also able to win outright in 12 of their 21 road or neutral site games this season, while going 13-7 against the spread in their lined away games.
Texas A&M went just 7-8-1 against the spread in their road/neutral games this season, so while their higher seed may carry some weight in this matchup, I don't think it carries enough weight to get them on top of this puffy impost.
Green Bay plus the points in this West Regional meeting.
4* WISCONSIN GREEN BAY
Rob Vinciletti
Cincinnati vs. St Joseph's
Play: Under 136½
The Bearcats fit a powerful system that plays against teams like St. Joe's that are off a dog win by 10 or more points and also off back to back wins and covers, vs an opponent off a spread loss or spread win by 10 or less like Cincy is here tonight. St. Joe's is 0-5 vs 6-10 seeds in this tourney and has failed to cover 6 of 9 vs teams who allow 64 or less this year. Cincy is 6-0 off a conference loss and 12-3 after scoring 80 or more The Bear cats have all the numbers and these two will stay under.
Teddy Covers
Hawaii vs. California
Play: California -4½
Oftentimes the college basketball betting markets are so predictable. Yes, Cal just lost their leading scorer, senior point guard Tyrone Wallace, to a broken hand that he suffered in practice earlier in the week. And the markets proceeded to do what they do, without a sliver of thought or research. They hear ‘leading scorer’ or ‘senior point guard’ out and immediately start betting Hawaii, hand over fist.
All of which leaves us with Cal sitting at -4.5 or -5 as I write this; in a game that has legitimate ‘mismatch’ potential. First, let me start with Wallace. He’s missed five games earlier in the year, and then came off the bench for the next three. Cal went 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS in the games that Wallace missed, including wins over Arizona and Oregon, two teams that are FAR better than Hawaii.
How has Cal been able to thrive without their senior point guard before? Simple – they’ve got a backup who is almost as good. Sam Singer doesn’t have Wallace’s scoring prowess , but that’s no big deal for a team that has five players averaging in double figures and a pair of potential NBA lottery picks in their freshman class. What Singer does BETTER than Wallace is distribute, with more assists and fewer turnovers than Wallace despite the duo playing nearly equal minutes for the season. Wallace’s absence won’t help Cal, obviously, but it won’t hurt the Bears nearly as much as the markets seem to think it will with their knee-jerk betting reaction.
And make no mistake about it – this Cal squad is capable of making a deep run into this tournament. The Bears came on like a freight train down the stretch riding those two elite freshmen, Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb, both potential NBA lottery picks this summer. Cuonzo Martin’s squad has gone 9-2 SU, 8-2-1 ATS in their last eleven ballgames, the only losses coming against Arizona and Utah; one in OT, the other by three points. Hawaii certainly doesn’t compare favorably with either of those squads.
Hawaii is going to jack up a bunch of three pointers here, like they do in most games, not a team capable of driving the ball and scoring in the paint against the Bears big, physical frontcourt. If they hit some of those three’s they might hang around for a while, but if they don’t this one could get ugly early. Each and every one of Hawaii’s few quality foes this year visited Honolulu, not the other way around. I do NOT expect the Warriors to hang tough in Seattle in early start action on Friday.
Jimmy Boyd
VCU vs. Oregon State
Play: Oregon St +4½
My first instinct was to take VCU in this one, but after researching this one more closely, I really like the value here with Oregon State. The Shockers were better than most expected in the first season with Shaka Smart calling the shots, but they really didn't do anything outside of an average A-10 conference.
VCU's toughest non-conference games were against Wisconsin, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Cincinnati. They lost them all. My big concern with Oregon State is they don't travel well, but this is a great matchup for the Beavers. It's no secret that the Rams love to pressure teams with full court chaos. There might not be a better player to handle that pressure than Oregon State's Gary Payton.
Those of you with a good understanding of basketball, know that if you break the press successfully, it almost always leads to high percentage shots on the other side of the floor. Keep in mind the Beavers apply some pressure of their own, so they aren't going to be intimated by the Rams and their style. It's also worth noting that Oregon is one team in the Pac-12 that likes to apply pressure and they played well against the Ducks in both meetings.
Dave Price
Temple +7½
The Iowa Hawkeyes come into the NCAA Tournament as 7.5-point favorites over Temple despite how awful they played down the stretch. There's no question that Iowa was one of the better teams in the land earlier this season, but it is not playing well enough right now to warrant being a 7.5-point favorite. The Hawkeyes have gone 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. One of their wins was a 4-point home victory over Minnesota as 19.5-point favorites. They even lost to Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament as 10.5-point favorites. Temple won the American Athletic regular season title while beating the likes of Cincinnati (twice), UConn (twice) and SMU. The Owls are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a double-digit loss. The Hawkeyes are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.
Jim Feist
Warriors vs. Mavs
Play: Over 222½
Golden State has plenty of offensive punch inside and out, No. 1 in the league in points scored. The over is 21-10 in the Warriors last 31 road games. Stephen Curry sank eight threes as Warriors scored 121 points the last game, blowing out New York. The reigning MVP, Curry scored 34 points in another brilliant 3-point shooting performance. The over is 20-7 in the Warriors last 27 games following a spread win. They face a Dallas defense that is No. 14 in points allowed and No. 15 in field goal shooting defense. Dallas is 8-3 over the total at home and the Over is 7-2 when the Mavericks face the Western Conference.
ASA
Temple vs. Iowa
Play:Under 140
First off, we expect this to be a slow paced game as Temple plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country. The Owls will want to keep this one at a snail’s pace and the slower team almost always controls the tempo. Iowa likes to play at a faster pace, however they played mainly slower type games in the Big Ten so they won’t be completely out of their comfort zone here. Both teams are solid defensively allowing their opponents to shoot just 41%. Both rank in the top 50 nationally in defensive efficiency. Offensively Temple has struggled all season long shooting just 40%. The Owls haven’t hit the 50% shooting mark for a game since mid January. Iowa’s offense was potent early in the season but they’ve really tailed off the final third of the season. The Hawks have shot 41% or less in 5 of their last 6 games and the last time they hit 50% of their shot in a game was way back on January 24th. Both teams protect the ball very well which means a low number of turnovers leading to easy buckets. Neither team is very good on the offensive boards meaning not many 2nd chances. Lastly, neither team gets to the FT line very often so very few easy points at the line with the clock stopped. This one has the makings of a grinder and we’ll take the UNDER.
Marc Lawrence
Golden State vs. Dallas
Play - Dallas
Edges - Mavericks: 9-0 ATS as home dogs of more than 8 points; and 4-2 ATS home versus .714 or greater foes this season. Warriors: 0-4-1 ATS last five overall away conference games; and 2-6 ATS as favorites of 9 or more points in games before facing the Spurs. With the Warriors off a 36-point home win, and having a huge game on deck at San Antonio tomorrow evening, we recommend a 1* play on Dallas.