DAVE COKIN
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD VS OKLAHOMA
PLAY: OKLAHOMA -14.5
Congratulations are in order for Cal State Bakersfield. The Roadrunners are Big Dance participants for the first time, and they got here in ultra-satisfying fashion. Knocking off New Mexico State in the WAC finale and doing so with a buzzer beater set off a big celebration that was richly deserved. Considering that between foul trouble and in-game injuries, Bakersfield was in deep water if that game went to overtime, it was a pretty amazing win.
Unfortunately for the Roadrunners, I think reality sets in today. Not only do they have to step way up in class to face Oklahoma, it’s the equivalent of a true road game as this game will be played in Oklahoma City.
In terms of style, Bakersfield likes to pressure on defense and that has given the Sooners some problems down the stretch. But I can’t believe that the Roadrunners have the ability to play this style at the same level as the Big 12 opposition that worked it with some success against the Sooners. If that’s true, then Oklahoma figures to get some easy baskets after breaking through the first wave of the Bakersfield defense.
The Sooners should also benefit from being on the receiving end of something they really seemed to need at the end of the season. That would be rest. This team does not have much depth and the Big 12 gauntlet this season was as tough as it gets. Oklahoma now having enjoyed an entire week off and also having absolutely zero travel for this game is big, at least in my opinion.
Bakersfield is a great story, no doubt about it. But in truth, it’s tough for me to make a case they can compete for 40 minutes here. The Roadrunners simply don’t have anything on their season resume that indicates to me they can hang with a legit powerhouse on the road. They got bludgeoned at Saint Mary’s. The loss at Arizona State was not close. They hung around at Fresno State but the Bulldogs were not nearly the same team then as they were at the end of the season. They lost at Wyoming. They lost at Idaho. The best quality win Bakersfield had all year was last week’s victory against New Mexico State. Aside from that, this team’s best win was against Grand Canyon, and that was at home.
If Oklahoma has issues with the Bakersfield press, then this could become a tense battle and I’ll be in trouble with the heavy chalk. But the location of the game, the fact the Sooners finally got some needed time off, and the possibility the dog is in happy to be here mode are all strong considerations for me. I’ll go with favored Oklahoma to collect a potentially lopsided win.
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is Hawaii plus the points in their Spokane meeting with California.
Make no mistake, Cal has the makeup to either go very far this month, or be out after today. Right now the Golden Bears are dealing with the sexual harassment distraction of their former assistant head coach, but more importantly, they are dealing with a very capable Rainbows team that enters at 27-5, and has covered 3 of their last 4 when installed as the underdog.
Cal has split their last 4 games straight up, but are just 0-2-1 against the spread over their last 3 games played.
Cuonzo Martin's team still turns the ball over too many times, and their free throw shooting percentage of just 65% is a warning sign should the Bears need to salt this game away from the charity stripe come the closing minute of play.
Nice wiggle-room with the underdog here, so side with the 'Bows to make this one very interesting indeed!
2* HAWAII
Mike Lundin
Warriors vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs +8½
This is very much a let down spot for the Golden State Warriors as they're coming off a lopsided 121-85 victory over the Knicks Wednesday and have a marquee matchup against the Spurs on deck tomorrow. They're on the road again after a six-game homestand and we can note that the Warriors are 3-5 ATS after playing three consecutive home games this season and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight on the road overall.
The Dallas Mavericks have lost six of their last seven games but gave the Cavs a real run for their money in a 99-98 loss Wednesday. The Mavs are tied with Houston for the West's final two playoff spots, with both holding just a slim advantage over ninth-place Utah, so the Mavs will be desperate to pick up a win.
Banged-up reserves Andre Iguodala, Festus Ezeli and Kevon Looney have not made the trip to Texas and I can see the Warriors opt to conserve their energy for tomorrow's game.
Scott Spreitzer
Temple +7½
The more we looked into this one, we decided to back the Owls here, as we have felt the AAC has been undervalued. The only thing keeping five of the conference's 11 teams from making the Big Dance was SMU's postseason ban. UConn represented the AAC well yesterday with a win and cover over Colorado. I expect Temple to hang the number here. The Owls are a physical and defensively sound basketball team, heading into Friday ranked 35th against the trey, while also holding teams to 41.7% FG shooting, overall. This is tough news for an Iowa team that struggled down the stretch, losing five of six SU, while covering just one of their last eight games. The Big-10 entry made less than 40% of their FGA over the last five games, while allowing those opponents to make 25.8 FGs per game on nearly 45% shooting. Facing the Owls is not a case of, "just what the doctor ordered," for Iowa's offensive play. Temple has won 13 of their last 17 games SU, and they're on an 8-3 ATS run as a single digit underdog & PK. We're recommending a play on Temple plus the points on Friday.
Bob Harvey
Warriors vs. Mavericks
Play: Warriors -8½
The Golden State Warriors look to avenge a rare loss when they visit the Dallas Mavericks.Golden State has taken eight of the last nine in the series, including a 127-107 home win on Jan. 27 in the most recent meeting. They dropped a 114-91 decision to Dallas on December 30.
The Warriors (61-6, 38-27-2 ATS) continue their chase the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ record of 72 regular-season wins. They need to go 12-3 over the final 15 games to break the Bulls’ record but will need to decide between one of sports all-time records or resting their starters this weekend with a back-to-back against Dallas tonight and San Antonio on Saturday.
The Mavericks (34-34, 36-31 ATS)are tied with the Houston Rockets for the final two playoff spots in the West with the Portland Trail Blazers in sixth and the Utah Jazz looming in the No. 9 spot. Dallas lost for the sixth time in seven games on Wednesday when a late rally against the LeBron James-less Cavaliers came up short in a 99-98 loss.
The road/home split shows Golden State with a 29-6 road record (20-13-2 ATS) Dallas is 19-16, (20-15 ATS) at home.
The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Dallas and 38-17-1 ATS in the last 56 games. The Mavericks are 0-4 ATS in their last four overall.
Art Aronson
Predators vs. Capitals
Play: Capitals -164
We think the price is fair here all things considered and if you don’t mind laying some mid-sized chalk, we’ll recommend giving the Capitals a second look in this matchup. Washington was last seen beating Carolina 2-1 in OT on Tuesday, a victory which clinched the team a playoff berth. Washington will now be gearing up for a deep playoff push and has to be feeling pretty confident today as the last time it faced Nashville it would skate away with the 5-3 victory back on February 9th. The Predators are ten points clear of the cut off line for the postseason, but we think they come in flat after beating the Isles 4-2 just last night. Consider making a play on this well rested and hungry WASHINGTON team.
Cajun Sports
Syracuse vs. Dayton
Play: Under 129.5
The Orange takes on the Flyers of Dayton on Friday afternoon. Our interest in this contest is not on the side but on the total. Two main reasons the numbers call for a low scoring affair and all primary tech elements also favor this one finishing below the posted total. Dayton coming off an ATS loss and going Over in their last game they are 9-20-1 Under their next time out. For the Orange we know if they went Over the posted total on the road in their last game they have seen the Under cash at a rate of 8-20 Under their last twenty-eight opportunities. We want to play UNDER on CBB teams coming off at least three road games and now installed as an underdog in the current price range. This system has a record of 43-76-1 UNDER.
Will Rogers
Minnesota at Houston
Prediction: Over
The Minnesota Timberwolves and the Houston Rockets will square up twice over the last month of the regular-season with the first of these meetings taking place at Toyota Center Friday night. The games in this series have a history of being up-tempo and high-scoring encounters, and tonight's match-up should be no different.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Situational - The Rockets took a 122-106 beating from the Clippers Wednesday when they allowed their opponent to shoot 56.6 percent from the field. The over is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home and 8-3 in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
2. Previous Meetings - Each of the last seven meetings in the series and four straight at Houston have gone over the total. James Harden is averaging 30.4 points during a five-game winning streak over the Timberwolves.
3. X-Factor - Minnesota's promising Slam Dunk contest winner Zach LaVine has scored 28 points in each of the past two games and he's 11-of-21 from behind the arc in his last four appearances.
Bob Balfe
Iowa -7
Iowa had a rough stretch to end the regular season, but this still is a veteran team that will be going up against a Temple team that can’t force turnovers and is not really an offense threat. Iowa has the better of the two benches and is the more talented team. There is no team in the country more excited to start this new fresh slate in the tournament. Look for the Hawkeyes to put together a complete game. Take Iowa.
Stephen F. Austin/West Virginia Over 145
This is a play based on the stupid new rule of calling every little thing a foul this year. SFA is #267 in the nation in committing fouls and WVU is dead last. Both teams are similar in style and force a lot of turnovers, but in the process foul and send their opponents to the line. Look for a lot of points when the clock is stopped. WVU should get a ton of offensive rebounds and I expect both teams to go to the line for around 30 shots. This will be similar to the Duke/UNCW game yesterday. Take the Over.
VCU -4
VCU is one of the most experienced teams in the field and are the more aggressive team as they rebound the ball on the offense end better and the turn teams over at a better rate. VCU is a better scoring team and its one of those games where the Rams are going to get more possessions which usually lead to victories in college basketball when the opponent is not a good offensive team. The edge on defense also is in the Rams favor. Take VCU.
Texas -4
Northern Iowa is a very light basketball team going against the big bodies of the Longhorns. If Cameron Ridley plays a decent amount of minutes it should be a good sign for Texas. N. Iowa is dead last in the nation at getting offensive rebounds which is not good news when you are not a high scoring team playing bigger, stronger and more recruited athletes. I don’t see Northern Iowa creating enough possessions to give them a chance to win this game. Take Texas.
Pittsburgh +2
This is a pretty evenly matched game on paper, but the bench highly favors Pitt. The Panthers are the bigger and more experienced team who are better on the offensive glass and have the better of the two offenses. The bench production should be the difference in this one. Take Pitt.
Oregon -23
Holy Cross had a nice run, but they don’t belong here. This team is #321 in the nation in scoring and #330 in the nation at offensive rebounds. Simply put there will be a lot of one and done trips which against Oregon is not a good combo. Oregon is great at blocking shots and taking the ball away, I just don’t see many shot opportunities for Holy Cross in this game. This game will be much like UVA/Hampton yesterday. Holy Cross will not be able to cut into the Oregon lead and it will get out of hand quickly. I look for Oregon to hold Holy Cross to under 45 points. Take Oregon.
Bruce Marshall
Notre Dame -3
Oldtimers might recall this matchup from the 1974 Big Dance, when Notre Dame (6) had reached the top of the polls at midseason after ending UCLA's 88-game win streak, but then fell short in the Sweet 16 vs. aroused Michigan (11) and Campy Russell. Forty-two years later, is it time for the Irish hoopsters to gain revenge? Perhaps so, as an advance to this stage by the Wolverines would have required only a win over a Tulsa team that went off the rails late in the season and could not recover in time for the play-in game at Dayton. As shrewd as Wolverine HC John Beilein might be, he holds little tactical edge over Irish counterpart Mike Brey. And Beilein is limited these days without top threat Caris LeVert, out (save one brief, trial appearance) since early January due to knee issues. Brey, with his full complement of players that includes five DD scorers, has the slight personnel edge. And, while Michigan was able to benefit from its tough schedule to get the Big Dance bid, it won only 4 of 15 vs. top 100 teams prior to Wednesday vs. the Golden Hurricane.
Chris Jordan
My early free winner for Friday is on Stephen F. Austin, plus the points against the one team I am hoping gets to the final weekend, just because I liked what I saw back over Thanksgiving weekend, here in Las Vegas.
Today, you're going to see a defensive struggle, a tug-of-war. There will be plenty of turnovers. Both teams pride themselves on pressure defense and both are the top two teams in the country in terms of forcing turnovers.
I've seen it up close, and there are very few teams that play defense with the intensity and end-to-end effort that West Virginia does. The Mountaineers rank No. 1 in the nation in steals at 9.9 per game and second in turnovers forced at 18.15 per game.
But here's the thing, the 14th-seeded Lumberjacks have just as impressive numbers, as they lead the nation in turnovers forced at 18.63 per game and are seventh in steals at 9.1 per game.
And I'll have you know, Stephen F. Austin is making its third straight appearance in the dance, and is no stranger here.
I'm banking on this one to stay close, and like the dog.
4* STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
My second free pick for tonight is on Northern Iowa, plus the points against Texas.
I know Shaka Smart is one of the brightest minds in college basketball, but I think the Longhorns are in for a battle that could come down to the end. This is the type of game that whichever team is holding the ball last, will be shooting for a win.
Texas, seeded sixth in the West Region, plays No. 11 seed Northern Iowa and the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament champ is the right side. The Panthers are a dangerous team. They've won 12 out of the last 13 games. They defend at an extremely high level and they can shoot from every spot on the floor.
I'm looking forward to this matchup between guards Isaiah Taylor and Javan Felix versus Wes Washpun. Both of Texas' aforementioned duo will be counted on to slow Washpun, who averaged 16.3 points in the MVC conference tournament and drained the game-winner against Evansville that catapulted the Panthers into the dance.
Washpun is an athletic point guard who loves the dribble-drive offense, he is smart enought to kick when he has to, and he is a very strong, left-handed slasher. He can pull up from anywhere for an occasional jumper and bottom line is the catalyst for this offense.
Don't forget this is the same Northern Iowa team that beat North Carolina on Nov. 21 when it was ranked No. 1.
During this 12-1 run, the Panthers haven't allowed more than 69 points in a game.
Take the dog here.
4* NORTHERN IOWA
Teddy Davis
Stephen F Austin vs. West Virginia
Play: West Virginia -7½
West Virginia is starting to play their best basketball of the season. I like what I saw from them during the Big 12 tourney because their pressure was great. They forced Oklahoma and Kansas into 20 and 21 turnovers so just think what they will be able to do with Stephen F Austin. I know the Lumberjacks like to play the same style, but they don't have the athletes and no where near the depth to hang around all game. West Virginia will get some easy buckets and once they get the momentum going look out
Chase Diamond
Stephen F Austin vs. West Virginia
Play: Stephen F Austin +8
This game has the 27-5 Stephen F. Austin again'st the 26-8 WVU. Now this is my big bracket buster team I have them winning there first two games and making the Sweet 16. West Virginia is a very up and down team and the Lumberjacks play a similar pressure Defense they lead the nation at 18.63 in turnovers and I think they do just that tonight. The Lumberjacks have won 20 straight games and are playing great ball I love them straight up today to upset West Virginia.
Jack Jones
Michigan vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -3
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are a veteran team who made the Elite 8 last year. Now they are laying just 3 points in their opening round game against Michigan, which was fortunate just to make the NCAA Tournament Field.
Because Notre Dame was blown out by UNC in the ACC Tournament, it comes into the NCAA Tournament way undervalued. Make no mistake, this is a very good team with five players averaging at least 11.3 points per game, led by Demetrius Jackson (15.5 ppg, 4.8 apg).
It's very hard to trust the Wolverines, who are without their best player in Caris LeVert. Michigan was actually down with just over a minute to play to Tulsa in the play-in game, but came through in the clutch to pull out the win. But the Wolverines take a big step up in competition here as Tulsa shouldn't have even been in the field.
The Wolverines are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win. The Fighting Irish are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. The Fighting Irish are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss. Notre Dame is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 vs. Big Ten opponents.
Chip Chirimbes
Oregon State +4
I would bet that most people at first glance would think that VCU is the 'higher-rated' seed and they are not. As a matter of fact not by a hair either as Oregon State is the No. 7 while the Rams are No.10 yet we find VCU favored. The question then becomes who is right the NCAA selection committee or the Vegas odds-makers. Usually, I side with Vegas but even the 'public' is running with VCU.