Bill Biles
Cincinnati vs. St Joseph's
Play: St Joseph's +2.5
St Joes is a hot team winning the A-10 and Cincinnati is coming off a tough loss to UCONN in the 4th OT. I like picking teams that are hot coming into the tourney. St Joes has some players and they will propel them into the round of 32. Take St Joes and the points in this one.
Sam Martin
Temple +7
After a really good regular season, Iowa completely fell apart down the stretch. The Hawkeyes lost four of their last five games of the regular season, with all four of those losses coming as the favorite. They didn't turn things around in the Big Ten Conference Tournament either, falling in their first game against #12-seeded Illinois as a big 10.5-point choice.
Hawkeyes may win this NCAA Tournament opener outright (maybe not), but we don't trust them to win by a big margin. That loss against Illinois was extremely telling, as they were trailing for the duration of that contest against an inferior opponent. Temple does not come out of a strong conference, but they have been consistent in the second half of the season, and they also play very good on the defensive end of the court. That alone should keep them in this game. Iowa might win, but not by much!
John Ryan
Cincinnati vs. St Joseph's
Play: Cincinnati -2½
SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cincinnati will win this game by at least 6 points.
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 64-28 ATS mark good for 70% winners since 1997. Play on any team (CINCINNATI) team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cincy is a solid 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) in road games when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game
Fundamental Discussion Points Cincinnati ranks among the top teams in the nation in defense, allowing 62.9 points per game, and averaging five blocks per game. Opponents are shooting only 39 percent against them. The Bearcats will be able to rely on forward Gary Clark, who said he is fully recovered from an ankle injury. Cincy grabs 3 more steals a game and commits less fouls per game than St. Joe's. Cincinnati will suffocate St. Joe's offense and capitalize on their more mistakes.
Alex Smart
Stephen F Austin vs. West Virginia
Play: Stephen F Austin +8
Stephen F Austin is one of the hottest teams in the nation, as they enter the first round of the NCAA tournament against West Virginia. The Lumberjacks are a 20-0 SU run and were a perfect 18-0 SU in Southland conference play and outscored their opponents this season by a whopping 17.5 ppg. Hey I know, the Mountaineers played a different level of competetion this season, but that may not serve them well, as their grueling schedule could easily effect their play against an energetic opponent that has barely broken a sweat since Decemeber. Stephen F. Austin beat VCU in its first NCAA Tournament game, back in the 2014 and must not be ignored as underdogs in this spot.
Brandon Lee
Northern Iowa vs. Texas
Play:Northern Iowa +4½
The Panthers punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament by catching fire down the stretch and winning the Missouri Valley Tournament. They went 12-1 over their last 13 games, which included two wins over Wichita State, who we have already seen win twice. UNI also had impressive non-conference wins over both Iowa State and North Carolina. Texas made some serious progress in their first year under head coach Shaka Smart, but they stumbled down the stretch, including a 14-point loss to Baylor in the Big 12 Tournament. I really like the Panthers to win this game outright, making them an easy play here as a underdog.
A. J. Penny
Hawaii vs. California
Play: California -5.5
Hawaii is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall and the Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. California is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record, 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall and the Golden Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big West.
SPORTS WAGERS
Stephen F. Austin +7½ over West Virginia
This game is very interesting because both teams are very inconsistent. The Mountaineers have 11 20-point wins, including three 40-point wins and a 53-point win. Only one of those wins came against a tournament opponent (Texas Tech). Five of their eight losses were by double-digits. The biggest was against Florida, a 17-point defeat.
All of the Mountaineers other losses were against teams with a tournament bid: Virginia (1 seed) once, Oklahoma (2 seed) twice, Kanas (1 seed) twice, and Texas (6 seed) twice. The high inconsistency actually bodes well for the Lumberjacks of Stephen F. Austin because they only have to play well against a very good West Virginia team once.
Stephen F. Austin forces a turnover 25.4% of all opponent possessions, which is the best in the country. However, West Virginia is second in that stat by forcing a turnover on 25% of possessions. These are two very defensive-minded squads that wreak havoc on their opponents. There will likely be a lot of turnovers in this game, and it could look ugly to an average viewer, but in reality, it will probably just be two of the best defenses in college basketball beating up on each other. At their best, West Virginia can beat any team in the country. They are definitely a candidate to go deep into the tournament, but they haven't played a defense as good as the Lumberjacks'. The Mountaineers actually turn the ball over themselves at a decent rate. In fact when they have a turnover percentage over 18.3% they are just 3-3 overall and just 1-5 against the spread. That’s significant. Stephen F. Austin definitely plays much worse competition than West Virginia, but the Lumberjacks' opponents have had a turnover percentage lower than 19.7% just four times all season.
One weakness that West Virginia has that could rear its ugly head is their tendency to foul. They foul on 32.1% of possessions which is the sixth-worst in the nation. Meanwhile, the Lumberjacks connect on 75% of free throws which is the 33rd-best percentage in college basketball. Stephen F. Austin is coming into the game riding a 20-game winning streak. They continue to beat up the Southland Conference year after year. In fact, dating back to 2014 they possess an incredible record of 53-1 in their conference. It's rare that a 3-seed gets upset, but when a team has the fifth-ranked offensive efficiency and third-best defensive efficiency, like Stephen F. Austin does, it would remiss not to give them a chance that they have rightfully earned and we’re not even asking them to win. Take the points.
Iowa -7 over Temple
Iowa is a team chock full of potential that struggled down the stretch with a 2-6 record in their last eight games. That stretch run has the Hawkeyes under-seeded and a bit undervalued too. Many publications will warn you about backing teams in this event that faded down the stretch and while that argument is a valid one, there are exceptions to almost every rule. Iowa is that exception. The Hawkeyes played the seventh toughest schedule in the country. They destroyed Wichita State by 23 points as part of their non-conference slate and went 12-6 in the very difficult Big-Ten Conference. That included a 13-point win over then #1 Michigan State. The Hawkeyes were the first team to beat Sparty this season. After a tough out-of-conference schedule followed by a grueling Big-Ten slate, Iowa can be excused for fading down the stretch but they take a big step down in class here against the Owls. A rejuvenated Hawkeyes team could easily have their way against this AAC opponent.
By contrast, Temple’s strength of schedule ranked 71st in the country. In their final 14 games of the year, the Owls played one ranked team and lost by 16 to Villanova. Down the stretch, the Owls also lost by 19 to Tulsa and by 15 to UConn in the AAC championship game. On January 2, the Owls lost by 27 to Houston and they also lost by 16 to Wisconsin. One has to ask why the Owls get buried so often. You see, Temple ranks 14th in three-point attempts. However, they convert on just 34% of those, 55th-best in the tournament so when those shots aren’t falling, the Owls end up giving up easy baskets and in the process end up getting whacked. Temple will fire away from beyond the arc all game and if those shots are falling they are dangerous. However, in a one-and-done situation, the pressure to hit those is higher. If the Hawkeyes fall behind by double digits in the second half or even earlier, more three’s will be launched. The bet here is that the Owls don’t go off. They are an inconsistent group to begin with and if Iowa gets back to playing the way they’re capable of, this Big-Ten resident should make rather easy work out of this AAC resident.
Holy Cross +23 over Oregon
After being blindsided by California and Stanford in mid-February, the Oregon Ducks recovered beautifully and finished their 2015-16 campaign with a Pac-12 Championship, rattling off eight games in a row to achieving an unprecedented #1 seed in March Madness. Unfortunately, we are fervid in attacking the Pac-12, a conference full of basketball teams that rely on a finesse style of basketball, focused primarily on the offensive side of things. Oregon typifies this concept. The Ducks rank among the worst in defending the three-ball in America, allowing a success rate of 36.3%. The Ducks are also allowing a savory 69.1 points per game and allow opponents to hit 42.4% of their shots.The Ducks score 78.8 points per game and hit 46.7% of their shots, but these accolades were achieved against teams like Washington, Washington State, Oregon State, USC and UCLA, all clubs not known for defense. Furthermore, Oregon fits the profile of many other teams targeted, a squad that is an immovable object at home but marginal away from their own court. Oregon is 10-6 away from Eugene, and some of their losses are tough to stomach. The Ducks fell to Stanford, they were routed by California, they were dominated by Oregon State and they loss to teams like Boise State and UNLV. UNLV and Boise State will be watching Oregon from home and perhaps having a chuckle at the thought of this team sporting a blistering #1 seed.
Forget the statistics, as the Crusaders marched through the Patriot League tournament and upended Lehigh, the consensus favorite to win the league in the Conference Championship game. Holy Cross may indeed have benefited from divine intervention, as they are a team with a losing record and yet when they were forced to play into this tournament as a 16-seed, once again they came up on the winning side of the equation against a mid-major conference champion. The amount of points Oregon is spotting is ludicrous and reflective of a premium often assessed for buying stock in a top seed. The fact that two other #1 seeds, Kansas and Virginia both covered against Austin Peay and Hampton respectively is of no concern to us whatsoever because Oregon is not on the same level as those two teams. Oregon has not dominated top-rated physical Big 12 teams, night in and night out and they don’t have the defensive prowess the Cavaliers pride themselves on. Still, the Quack Attack is spotting near identical points to a squad that literally enters this one with less to lose than any team in the field because they did not expect to be where they are. The reckless abandon of Holy Cross has led them to do unimaginable things and we're confident that they’re going down swinging. These are inflated points and we’re all over it, as our attack on the Pac-12 continues.
South Dakota St +9 over Maryland
South Dakota State enters this contest at 26-7, capturing a Summit Conference title on the road to qualification. A win for the Jackrabbits will give them a great chance at clawing their way toward a Sweet 16 appearance, as the winner of this match-up will face a nicked-up California team or another mid-major power player in Hawaii. South Dakota State ranked 83rd in offensive rebounds per game, while Maryland sits at 175th nationally. In tournament situations like this, where every possession counts and it is a win or go home scenario, this narrative is of special importance. While Maryland boasts efficiencies in shooting, going cold can change the complexion of this contest swiftly. Thus, second and third chances are of the essence and when you consider that the Jackrabbits are more consistent in this capacity, they are readily capable of never letting this game get too far out of reach. Before zealots are quick to deploy the edge lying with the ACC angle, let Sun Belt Champion Arkansas-Little Rock’s inspiring 2OT victory over Big 10 thumper Purdue further embellish that any given team can have their moment of glory in this tournament.
If you plan to pick against Maryland, you’re likely basing that decision on the Terps’ late-season swoon. The Terps lost five of their last eight games to close out the season and who could forget that embarrassing performance at Minnesota. Simply put, Maryland isn’t playing well. But even if you eliminate recency bias, Maryland is plagued by much deeper problems. None matters more than the fact that the Terps get absolutely blasted in the turnover battle. You’d think that a team with a supposedly elite point guard in Melo Trimble would take care of the rock but Maryland gives it away on 19.3 percent of its possessions. That’s 251st in the country. If our model had an empty gum wrapper, it still wouldn’t trust Maryland to hold onto it. The Terps compound that problem with a defense that doesn’t pressure opponents. Maryland generates turnovers on just 16.6 percent of defensive trips, meaning that in most games, they are at a severe possession advantage. You’d hope that a big frontline that features Robert Carter, Diamond Stone and Jake Layman would offset those ball-handling problems with dominance on the boards, but Maryland is right around the national average on both ends, grabbing offensive rebounds on 29.9 percent of misses and allowing them on 29.3 of opponents’ bricks. Now, we know you don’t always handle bad news very well, Terps fans, but we’re just the messenger here. And the message is simple: Your team is ripe for the picking against a viable underdog. The Jackrabbits fit that bill.
VCU -4 over Oregon State
Three PAC-12 teams appeared in Thursday’s opening round, Colorado, USC and Arizona and all three will now be watching the rest of this event from the rail. Colorado got whacked by UConn in the second half and failed to cover. Arizona got schooled by Wichita State and USC failed to make a play when it counted most in a narrow loss to Providence. Next up for the PAC-12 is Oregon State, a squad that finished 9-9 in that trash bin of a conference. The Beavers had some ugly losses thrown in too, like the 17-point losses to both Arizona and Colorado, and the 11-point losses to both USC and UCLA. There was little doubt that the Beavers' drought of making the Big Dance, which dates back to 1990, was going to end. They started 3-6 in conference play but closed the regular season winning seven of their last 10 before falling in the quarterfinals of the Pac 12 tournament. They have six wins over the top 50 RPI teams and no losses to teams outside the top 100. But how dangerous are the Beavers really, especially with star freshman Tres Tinkle very likely out with an injury?
The metrics don’t believe them to be too threatening. Their 59th-ranked efficiency rating is the second-lowest in the field, edging out only Tulsa, and they are ranked 60th in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, the lowest of any at-large team in the field.
If you assumed that Shaka Smart would be taking VCU’s swag with him to Texas, allow us to make this announcement: Havoc still reigns over downtown Richmond. Will Wade, Smart’s top assistant at VCU from 2009 to 2013, had the Rams playing their signature style all year and a host of holdover players are making it click. The Rams are still pressuring the heck out of opponents (turnovers on 23.8 percent of opponent possessions, fifth best in the nation), still pushing the tempo on offense (71.1 possessions per game) and still chasing down offensive boards (34.1 percent of missed shots, 50th nationally). VCU has also benefited from Melvin Johnson finally living up to his potential as a senior. The 6-foot-4 guard never quite found a consistent way to contribute in the past, particularly with Treveon Graham serving as the team’s primary perimeter threat. But with Graham gone, that responsibility has shifted to Johnson, and he has responded by averaging 18.7 PPG on 43.7 percent shooting from 3-point range, which is a key reason why VCU went 24-10 this season
These days, VCU isn't exactly a mid-major, either. No one's really sleeping on them after half a dozen great seasons under Shaka Smart. In those six seasons, the Rams made the tournament on five occasions, including two trips to the Round of 32 and one to the Final Four in 2010-11, where they ultimately lost to Butler. They might even have a little extra motivation to make a run through the tournament this year, well, at least to the Sweet 16, where they would have the opportunity, if things shake out right, to play their former coach and his new team. No matter the motivation, opponent, or even coach for that matter, we’re pretty sure that VCU is going to be ready to play. They ended this season as the 29th best defense in terms of efficiency and the 34th best team in the nation, according to the metrics. There’s a reason that a 10 seed is favored over a 7-seed and it’s because the oddsmakers are fully aware that the Rams should bury this PAC-12 representative in much the same way that Wichita buried Arizona.
The Sports Boss
Texas vs. Northern Iowa
Play: Texas -4
In some Friday late night action in the NCAA Tourney we are backing the Texas Longhorns laying the points against the UNI Panthers. Big part of this game is the fact Texas' head coach Shaka Smart, coming from a very solid mid-major program like VCU, is not going to remotely let his kids overlook this UNI squad - huge edge there. I think Texas is a sleeper Final Four pick, gets Cameron Ridley back tonight, and will play very well and handle the Panthers by double digits.
Jimmy Moore
Dayton -1
Syracuse was very lucky to squeeze into the tournament with fewer than 20 wins and with a conference record that was under .500. The Orangemen have only covered 4 of their last 19 games against Atlantic 10 opponents and they only have 1 SU win in their last 6 games overall. Look for a determined Dayton team that is still smarting from the SU favorite loss in their conference tournament. Thank you and good luck
Jeffrey James
CS Bakersfield +14
Oklahoma is a great team but they really struggle in the ATS side of things only covering 2 of their last 10 and only covering 6 road games all season. The Roadrunners don't play many lined games but they are strong when they are on the board covering 13 of their last 16 games on the big board. Look for the Roadrunners cranking up the D keeping this game lower scoring and keeping it within this big number.
Wunderdog
Mid Tenn St vs. Michigan St
Pick: Under 143
Middle Tennessee State has a size disadvantage up front for this one, so scoring will be tough. They stepped up to play VCU earlier in the year and slowed it down in a 62-56 loss, going UNDER the total by 23 points. Middle Tennessee State is 9-4 UNDER the total in non-conference games. They face a powerhouse Michigan State defense that is tops in the Big 10 in points allowed (63.4 ppg), field goal defense (.377%) and three-point defense (.302%). Michigan State captured the Big Ten Tournament title with a 66-62 win Sunday against Purdue. Michigan State is 5-1 UNDER at neutral sites and 7-3 UNDER the total after a spread loss. This shapes up as a slow-paced, defensive battle. Play this one to finish UNDER.