Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Friday, March 24th, 2017

Alan Harris

Wisconsin / Florida Under 131.5

Two teams that have been trending to the under will meet when the Wisconsin Badgers take on the Florida Gators at Madison Square Garden in New York on Friday night in a NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 matchup. The Badgers have posted a perfect 4-0 record to the under in their last four NCAA Tournament games where they were listed as an underdog and they have gone an excellent 10-1 to the under in their last 11 games overall where they were getting points. The Gators have been an under team as well in the spot they are in here on Friday as they have stayed under the number in their last four NCAA Tourney games where they were listed as a favorite and they have gone 6-1 to the under in their last seven games following an ATS win. Throw in the fact that Wisconsin has gone 10-4 to the under in their last 14 games versus a team from the SEC while Florida has gone an insane 22-8 to the under in their last 30 neutral-site games where they were listed as the favorite and that's where we'll have our play as we expect an ugly game with both sides trying to slow the pace in New York on Friday night.

Allen Eastman

Wisconsin (+2) over Florida

I am going with the Badgers in this one. This team took down Villanova last week. I think that they will do the same thing to Florida. The Gators had a favorable draw. They got to face a struggling Virginia team in the second round after they really struggled in their opener against East Tennessee State. Florida is just 3-3 in their last six games, and I don't think that this team has much momentum. And this Wisconsin team plays a very similar style to what Vanderbilt plays. And Vanderbilt is a team that beat Florida three times this season. Wisconsin will follow that game plan. The Badgers have a lot of senior leadership, and the guys on this team have had a lot of success in the NCAA Tournament, including going to two Final Fours. I think that they could go to a third Final Four. And I think that they are going to take care of business here. The Badgers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games as an underdog and they are 12-3 ATS as a tournament underdog of less than 6.5 points. Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in its last five NCAA Tournament games overall. I like them to win this game and advance.

Jason Sharpe

Kentucky / UCLA Under 168.5

Huge point total here in this one. The pace tends to slow down and scoring seems to decrease the deeper into the season and NCAA tournament that you go. We seen that last game with both of these high scoring squads. UCLA has the reputation of being an explosive high scoring team but they've now went below the total in 6 of their last 8 contests. Kentucky has ridden their defense to wins in their first two games holding foes to just 43% shooting. They've allowed an average of 65 points per game on defense in their last 12 contests and have gone 'under' the total in 8 of their last 9 games. Play the 'under' in this one.

Strike Point Sports

Atlanta at Milwaukee
Play: Under

Atlanta's offense really struggles on the road. They are only averaging 101 points per game away from home and the 'under' is 7-1 in their last eight road games. The Bucks offense has really begun to struggle too. The 'under' is 8-1 in their last nine games and this team has been struggling on its West Coast trip against some high-scoring teams. I don't think that Atlanta is going to come to play in this game and I can see their road struggles continue. I would take the 'under' here.

Neil The Greek

Cleveland at Denver
Play: Denver +4

For what ever reason, when the Nuggets play the better teams in the league at home, they play extremely well. And I keep saying watch out for this team in the upcoming years, because they are building a really good team. I think they are going to run the Cavs right out of the gym Wednesday night.

Oskeim Sports

Wisconsin at Florida
Play: Wisconsin +2

Following a red-hot 21-3 SU start to the 2016-17 campaign, Wisconsin struggled down the stretch, losing five of its last seven regular-season affairs before making a deep run in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. Wisconsin possesses unparalleled leadership (five returning starters) behind seniors Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes, both of whom have played in sixteen NCAA Tournament games (including Final Four experience). Indeed, the Badgers have reached the Sweet Sixteen in five of the past six Tournaments, including two Final Four appearances.

Wisconsin entered the NCAA Tournament with an elite defense that was 13.0 points per game better than average (61.4 points per game to teams that would combine to average 74.4 points per game). Center Ethan Happ patrols the paint for Wisconsin and led the Big Ten in steal rate and was 8th in block rate. At the start of the Tournament, the Badgers ranked 9th in the nation in scoring defense, 11th in defensive efficiency, 14th in personal fouls per game (15.7), 21st in rebound margin (6.3) and 28th in scoring margin (10.5).

Wisconsin also does an excellent job defending the three-point line, allowing the 31st-worst percentage by opponents. From a technical standpoint, the Badgers are a profitable 7-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games, 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament affairs when getting points and 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus .501 or greater opposition. Let's also note that Wisconsin is 11-6 SU versus SEC opposition, including 4-1-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament.

The Big Ten Conference is a money-making 14-6-1 ATS as underdogs versus SEC foes in the Tournament, including going 3-0 SU and ATS over the last three Dances. Florida is coming off an impressive 65-39 win over Virginia in the Round of 32, but that result is actually bad news for Florida backers. Specifically, teams that allowed 39 points or less in the NCAA Tournament are a woeful 2-8 ATS in their following games, including 0-6 ATS when coming off a pair of straight-up wins.

With Wisconsin standing at 13-4-1 ATS in its last eighteen NCAA Tournament games as an underdog, including 9-1-1 ATS following back-to-back wins, grab the points with the Badgers and invest with confidence.

Cal Sports

Butler at North Carolina
Play: Under 153

The Butler Bulldogs and North Carolina Tar Heels are meeting for the third time in the last five season. Butler pulled the upset in both previous meetings wining 82-71 as a 9 point underdog in November of 2012 and they won 74-66 also as a 9 point dog in November of 2014. This year they played only one common opponent as Butler beat Indiana by 5 points on December 17th while NC lost to the Hoosiers by 9 points on November 30th.

Butler is my #25 ranked team with my #15 offense and #48 defense and they faced the #18 schedule. The Bulldogs have seven players that average over 20 minutes/game and nine that average over 10 minutes/game. Three players average double digit points with Kelan Martin (16 PPG) leading the way followed by Andrew Chrabascz (11.1 PPG) and Kamar Baldwin (10.0 PPG). Tyler Lewis (6.5 PPG) runs the floor and averaged 4.0 assist/game while Charbaccz is #2 in assists (4.5/gm) and #3 in rebounding (4.5/gm). Martin pulls down 5.8 rebounds/game while Tyler Wideman adds 5.1 rebounds/game.

North Carolina is my #3 ranked team with my #4 offense and #23 defense playing against my #9 schedule. The Tar Heels have seven players that average over 19 minutes/game and two more players which average over 13 minutes/game. Justin Jackson leads the team with 18.1 PPG and is #3 in rebounding (4.7/game). Joel Berry II is the #2 scorer (14.4 PPG) and is #2 in assists (3.7/gm) while Kennedy Meeks is the top rebounder (9.1/gm) and in the #3 scorer (12.7/gm).

The teams are a contrast when it comes to tempo as North Carolina likes to play fast (#52 tempo) while Butler is more methodical (#289 tempo). I give this edge to Bulldogs as the Tar Heels have played a majority or up-tempo teams lately and their offense is less effective when they’re slowed down. Butler has held the other top 20 offenses in check allowing 66 points to Villanova (#3 off), 65 points to Marquette (#8 off), 65 points to Arizona (#19 off) and while they may not win this game they’ll keep the score down.

Mike Rose

Butler at North Carolina
Play: Butler +7

The last two times Butler found itself in the Sweet 16, it advanced to the Elite 8 by taking down both Syracuse and Wisconsin as decided underdogs. I’ll be the first to admit I loaded up on MTSU in the second round last Saturday simply due to the fact that I drank way too much of the Blue Raider Kool-Aid. In the grand scheme of things, the last team MTSU wanted to face was a sound and talented Butler squad that has the weapons at both ends of the court to continue advancing in this tournament.

I incurred a pair of troubling defeats last week with Gonzaga (NW) and UNC (ARK). Each got out to huge starts, but ultimately allowed each to get back in the game and was then forced to hold on for dear life. The Tar Heels looked more than human last week unable to consistently hit their long range shots against the Hogs. Butler has taken on a bear of a schedule this season, and won’t be intimidated in the least by the perceived more dominant Tar Heels. I have UNC advancing in this game, but with fans of Butler, UCLA & Kentucky all pulling for the Bulldogs, it’ll come by the skin of their teeth.

Teddy Covers

UCLA vs. Kentucky
Play: Under 165½

When Kentucky and UCLA met in non-conference play back in December, the game was an instant classic; a 97-92 Bruins victory in a high octane shootout. Both teams played fast – a frenetic tempo from a pair of teams that were struggling mightily on defense at the time. And both teams shot the ball well, combining for 47% shooting from the floor, including 18 made three pointers. No surprise, then, that the rematch is the single highest totaled game in the NCAA Tournament so far.

But there’s little reason to expect the high stakes rematch to be played in similar fashion. That was then. This is now.

John Calipari spent the back half of the season coaching up the Kentucky defense. It’s worked! The lengthy, athletic Wildcats are wreaking havoc on the defensive end of the court in recent weeks. Only one of their last nine opponents has scored more than 70 points against them, with Kentucky holding foes under 40% from the floor during that span. No surprise, then, that the Wildcats are 8-1 to the Under in those last nine ballgames, including a ‘snail’s pace’ Round of 32 game against Wichita State. And this is the highest total – by far – that Kentucky has seen during this span.

UCLA’s offense is similar to that of the Golden State Warriors in one key regard – it’s speed of ball movement. When teams face UCLA for the first time, they’re often overwhelmed, like Kentucky was in the first meeting. The rematch, however, isn’t as much of a basketball ‘culture shock’, because they’ve seen it before. That’s how teams like USC and Arizona slowed UCLA down in rematch situations down the stretch of the PAC-12 campaign. And, as Kentucky already knows that getting into a track meet with the Bruins is a losing proposition. Expect a very different ‘pace mentality’ from the Wildcats this time around!

Last, but not least, UCLA’s defense has improved by leaps and bounds from where they were a few months ago. This WAS a bad defensive team for the better part of the first three months of the season. But in PAC-12 play, the Bruins were actually #2 in the entire conference in two point shooting percentage allowed. The Bruins don’t force many turnovers, leading to easy fast break buckets on the other end. But they’ve been fundamentally sound for the better part of the last two months now and Kentucky is not a ‘let it rain 3’s’ type of team, averaging fewer than seven makes per game. Expect this rematch to be a much lower scoring affair than the first meeting, staying Under the total with room to spare.

Jim Feist

Nets vs. Wizards
Play: Nets +12½

Brooklyn is playing hard in this lost season, 4-5 SU, 7-2 ATS the last nine games. They come off a 98-96 win over Detroit as a +5.5 dog. The Nets are 4-0 ATS on the road, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Washington is on a 0-6 ATS run, 0-5 ATS at home. The Wizards are 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.

Rob Vinciletti

Kings vs. Warriors
Play: Kings +18

We may have to hold out nose with this one but 18 points looks good here as we have the system below that long term has cashed 18 of 20 times for rested road dogs taking 10 or more like the Kings if the total is 200 or higher in conference games where the dog is coming off a spread loss as a home dog and taking on a team that comes off a road favored win and cover like the Warriors. The Kings have covered 11 of 15 off 3 or more losses and the Warriors have taken their foot off the gas pedal 9 of the last 13 times vs losing teams and 7 of the last 9 vs opponents that allow 105 or more points per game. The Warriors are 1-7 ats at home on Friday and the Kings are 5-1 ats on the road on Fridays, Look for the Kings to hang around for the cover.

Marc Lawrence

76ers vs. Bulls
Play: 76ers +6

Edges - 76ers: 16-4 ATS last twenty overall games… Bulls: 8-15 ATS in this series following a win of more than ten points. With the Sixers seeking double revenge from losses this season and off a 26-point loss, and Chicago off a 22-point win, we recommend a 1* play on Philadelphia.

Art Aronson

Wisconsin vs. Florida
Play: Wisconsin +2

Wisconsin has defeated Virginia Tech and Villanova to reach the round of 16, while Florida got by East Tennessee State and Virgnia. The Badgers only average 72.1 PPG, but they make up for it on the defensive end in allowing just 61.8 per contest (ranked 11th in the nation). Florida averages 77.9 PPG and allows 65.7. Note though that Wisconsin is 7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with a win percentage above .600, while Florida is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory. Clearly these are two very evenly matched teams, but at this point of the Tournament, it’s all about momentum and we think the Badgers have that factor firmly on their side after beating the defending champs. Florida leading scorer KeVaughn Allen has gone just 3 for 21 over his last two games, which doesn’t bode well in facing Wisconsin’s red hot seniors in Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes.

Tony Karpinski

Wisconsin vs. Florida
Play: Florida -1½

If Florida can turn it up to even another notch, which I think Coach Michael White can get them to do, this Florida team can be really, really dangerous. Some forget this big SEC team still hasn't fully clicked on all cylinders this year yet, ranking 2nd in their conference. They just finally are hitting their stride. They will keep the momentum going vs Wisconsin.

A tired Wisconsin team, currently riding on massive self-confidence, a very low level of miscommunication, proven through their huge win vs Villanova. But, this will be the letdown game - I don't think there's going to be any semblance of an upset here- much to the hope of all those thinking about it.

Florida is getting a balanced attack and playing great team defense. With the extra time to prepare I like the Gators here on Friday night.