DAVE COKIN
SOUTH CAROLINA VS BAYLOR
PLAY: BAYLOR -3.5
I’m looking at this game from a matchup perspective and the more I break it down, the more I see advantages for Baylor.
South Carolina is a great defensive team, but it’s not like they have an enormous edge on that side of the court. Baylor is clearly superior offensively, and it’s not close on that count.
The Gamecocks played out of their heads last round in the second half of their game with Duke. But the Blue Devils were also horrid on defense after halftime in that game and the number of wide open looks South Carolina got was kind of ridiculous. I do not see that happening here and feel as though the Baylor length will create problems for the underdogs.
It’s certainly possible that there could be a carryover from the Duke game and that the Gamecocks will light it up again. But based on their full season shooting stats, that’s just not likely. Thornwell is going to have to put together a huge game for the Gamecocks to score this upset.
Meanwhile, in spite of how tough South Carolina is on defense, I can see Motley being a very difficult matchup for them. I see the Baylor star getting to 20 in this game, and the Bears lost just once all season when Motley hit that plateau.
I’m expecting this to be competitive but I also see Baylor having a good chance to eventually pull away. I’m willing to spot the points here with the Bears.
Scott Rickenbach
Butler vs. North Carolina
Play: Over 153
Some "hidden value" here as the Bulldogs have shot the ball very well in the tourney but yet neither game went over the total. Butler is shooting very well from three point land as well as overall and now they'll take their shot at an upset of North Carolina here. However, the Tar Heels are off of a rare poor shooting effort in their tight win over Arkansas and that mean an offensive onslaught can be expected here. UNC, when off of a game where they were held under 40% from the field, has responded by averaging 87.4 points per game the 7 times it's happened this season. The line on today's game is a 7. Could we expect an 87-80 type game here? I see no reason why not. The Bulldogs are averaging 78 points per game in their last 8 games as they've shot at least 49% in 6 of those 8 games and the Tar Heels are all set for a breakout game offensively after their "off night" against the Razorbacks. The over is 3-1 in Butler's last 4 games against ACC opponents. The over is 21-11 in Tar Heels neutral court games the last 3 seasons combined. More of the same Friday night.
Mike Lundin
Philadelphia vs Chicago
Play: Philadelphia +6½
The Philadelphia 76ers took a 122-97 loss at Oklahoma City on Wednesday while the Chicago Bulls are coming off a 117-95 drubbing of the Pistons. I think those two results combined sets up a great spot to back the 76ers here.
The 76ers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight Friday night games. The Bulls meanwhile are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Friday games and 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Jesse Schule
Hawks vs. Bucks
Play: Bucks -5½
The surging Milwaukee Bucks have won 10 of their last 12 overall, climbing all the way to sixth in the Eastern Conference standings. They have been playing great defense during that stretch, holding opponents under 100 points in eight of those 10 wins. They host the 5th place Atlanta Hawks tonight, and they only trail the Hawks by one game. This game is key for both teams, and with massive playoff implications, expect both teams to bring it. The Hawks have lost five straight, and haven't scored more than 100 points in any of those games. Leading scorer Paul Millsap has missed the last three games with a knee injury, and will not play in Milwaukee. Atlanta has failed to cover in seven of their last nine when playing on one day of rest, while the Bucks have covered in five straight home games.
Chase Diamond
Butler vs. North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -7
This free premium winner has the 25-8 Butler Bulldogs taking on the 29-7 UNC. North Carolina is a very young team but is the most talented team in the tournament. Butler has had a easy road up until this game playing teams like Winthrop and Middle Tennessee. You will see the difference in NBA talent versus a college player tonight as I see this as a wire to wire cover by UNC. Public is 50/50 on this game and IMO that is strictly on the high line here but no worries and a easy cover for the Tar Heels.
Dustin Hawkins
Pelicans vs. Rockets
Play: Rockets -7
Houston is 24-11 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The Pelicans are only 4-21 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival since 1996.
Info Plays
Pelicans vs. Rockets
Play: Rockets -7
I have a couple of systems supporting our pick. Houston is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Houston is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.
Ben Burns
Wisconsin vs. Florida
Play: Under 132
Both these teams played excellent defense last time out. The Badgers held the defending champs to only 62 points, on 41.2% shooting. Not bad considering that Villanova entered that game averaging 77.6 points, while hitting 49.8% of its field goals. Florida's defensive performance was even more impressive. Indeed, the Gators limited Virginia to a mere 39 points. The Cavs connected only less than 30% (29.6%) of their field goals, while hitting a paltry 7.6% from beyond the arc. The Badgers, who are slight underdogs here, have been "getting points" four times this season. All four of those games fell below the total. Those four games had combined scores of 127, 122, 121 and 127. This one has all the makings of another relatively low-scoring affair.
Stephen Nover
Hawks vs. Bucks
Play: Hawks +6
It takes a lot of zigging and zagging to beat a don't-make-sense league such as the NBA. We have a perfect example today: Take Atlanta plus the points at Milwaukee. The Hawks have lost five in a row. The Bucks are returning from a 4-2 road trip, marking the first time since the 1988-'89 season Milwaukee won four games during a single road trip. Logic says lay the points with the Bucks. Logic, though, doesn't work too often in the NBA. If it did the sport would be easy to win at instead of being what many pro gamblers consider the most difficult sport to beat. Still, why get involved with the cold Hawks? We go back a little more than two weeks ago to help get the answer. Atlanta was riding a three-game winning streak from March 8-12 defeating the Nets, Raptors and Grizzlies in Memphis. Then the Hawks lost to the Spurs. No shame in that. The Grizzlies got their revenge against the Hawks following that game. Again, no shame in losing to Memphis. But then in their next game - home against Portland this past Saturday - the Hawks lost by 16 points. Paul Millsap injured his knee during warmups prior to that game and the Hawks had trouble adjusting without their best player. Millsap, a four-time All-Star, leads Atlanta in scoring and is second in rebounding, assists and steals. Coupled with the loss of underrated Kent Bazemore, the Hawks proceeded to drop their next game, 105-90, to the Hornets in Charlotte. That was the Hawks' fourth straight loss with the defeats coming by an average of 12.8 points per game. These are the short windows of opportunity that come and go in the NBA. They don't stay open long as team and oddsmaker adjust. The Hawks covered as 7 1/2-point road 'dogs to the Wizards in losing, 104-100, two days ago in their last game. Atlanta is not going to have Millsap nor Bazemore against the Bucks. But the team has made the proper adjustments. The Hawks showed progress against the Wizards and are now less depended on Millsap. The Hawks have a strong track record against the Bucks and draw Milwaukee in a vulnerable situational spot. The Bucks are a bit fat and happy following their successful six-game, 11-day road journey that concluded with a blowout victory against the Kings in Sacramento this past Wednesday night. Giannis Antetokounmpo is an absolute monster on pace to join Oscar Robertson and Magic Johnson as the only player to average more than 20 points, eight rebounds and five assists under the age of 22. If my Rotisserie fantasy basketball draft were being held now I would rank Antetokounmpo as the fourth overall player behind Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Anthony Davis. The Bucks are a young team whose maturity is under question. The Bucks have their long-time arch rivals, the Bulls, on deck Sunday at home. I wouln't trust the Bucks to bring their "A" game here considering the circumstanes. They still could be getting used to the time change having been on the West Coast the past week. It should be noted the Bucks may be without backup center John Henson. He missed Milwauke's last game with a thumb injury. If Henson can't play that would be one less big man to hack Dwight Howard. The Hawks need point guard Dennis Schroder to return to his earlier solid form. He's been terrible during the Hawks' losing streak. Point guard is not one of the Bucks' strengths. Veteran forward Ersan Ilyasova also needs to step up. He's a former Buck so he should be psyched for this matchup. The Hawlks are in stop-the-pain mode. They have just a one-game lead on the Bucks and Pacers for fifth place in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta has a winning straight-up and spread record on the road. They have defeated the Bucks in seven of the past nine meetings, including all three this season winning by an average of eight points. The Hawks have covered in seven of their last eight visits to Milwaukee.
Power Sports
Brooklyn vs. Washington
Pick: Under
For a second straight night, you can expect the majority to gravitating towards the Over in a game involving the Nets. On the surface, this makes sense as the league's worst team (in terms of wins & losses) allows the most points per game and is 28th in efficiency. However, "results will vary" from last night as they destroyed Phoenix (126-98 as five-pt FAVORITES!), but because the O/U line was bet up so high, those who bet the Over late probably lost or at best, escaped w/ a push. Looking at the number for tonight, I can't help but think it's too high. My recommendation here is the Under.
For about a two month span, the Wizards were the hottest team in the league. But, perhaps predictably, they've begun to cool off - especially at the betting window. Coming into this game, they're on a six-game ATS losing skid. Their only two SU victories during that span came at the expense of Chicago and Atlanta by five and four points respectively. Both came here at home. The win over Atlanta was Wednesday, their last game, and saw them overcome a very slow start. They scored just 40 points in the first half and even with the two teams combining for 70 in the 4Q, the game still stayed Under. It was the Wizards' third consecutive time staying Under the total.
John Wall was actually scoreless at the break against the Hawks, but scored 22 points in the second half. You can probably expect a more even scoring distribution in this game. But I don't necessarily believe he'll score significantly more. Washington had gone Over nine straight games before the current three-game Under streak, but the oddsmakers have taken notice and begun posting higher O/U lines. Meanwhile, Brooklyn has shockingly held three of its last four oppoents below 100 points!
Will Rogers
Tampa Bay vs. Detroit
Pick: Under 5.5
The set-up: The 29-32-11 Detroit Red Wings will very soon officially have their 25-year postseason streak end soon. The Red Wings are 13 points out of the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and have only 10 games left. They will host the 35-29-9 Tampa Bay Lightning (79 points), who still hold hopes of passing the NY Islanders (79) and catching the Bruins (82), who currently hold down the second wild card spot in the East.
Tampa Bay: The Lightning were seemingly fading out of the playoff race with three straight losses but an impressive 6-3 victory at Boston last night, has them within three points of the Bruins. Nikita Kucherov recorded a hat trick for Tampa Bay to push his total to 37 goals, moving him within three of Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby for the league lead. Andrei Vasilevskiy, who was rested Thursday, is expected to start against the Red Wings after allowing 12 goals over his last three games following a 6-0-1 stretch.
Detroit: The Red Wings are playing hard down the stretch and tonight go for their fourth victory in five games. “You still have to be professional,” Red Wings goaltender Jimmy Howard, who helped defeat Montreal 2-1 in overtime on Tuesday, told the Detroit Free Press. “This organization has given us all a lot, and our fans over the years and their dedication. We owe it to both of them to still go out there and play.”
The pick: Howard has surrendered just seven goals in four games since coming off injured reserve and has posted career-best numbers during his injury-plagued season, registering a 1.91 GAA & .935 save percentage in 21 games. However, the Lightning have won four straight overall on the road and each of their last five meetings with Detroit. Tough game, low-scoring.
Carmine Bianco
Honduras at USA
Play: USA -1.
The USA restart their World Cup qualifying bid in a spot where anything short of a win will leave them bottom of the group and in an extremely tough spot needing results away from home. They'll welcome Honduras who sit in the 4th a final (albeit additional playoff game) spot in the group. On home soil the USA has faired well. winning 5 of 6 to go with a draw against the Hondurans and own a 11-2-2 lifetime record. This will be the first official game for the team USA under new manager Bruce Arena after two friendlies and he'll need to get this side going early. I'm expecting the visitors to play a heavier backline looking to slow down and frustrate the USA attack. It won't be the most exciting match you'll watch but the opinion here is the US gets an important first half goal and forces the Hondurans to open it up in the 2nd.
Tony Finn
Wisconsin at Florida
Play: Under 132
The Big 10 Wisconsin Badgers and SEC Florida Gators take to the hardwood on the world's most famous arena on Friday night, Madison Square Garden. Tipoff is slated for 9:59 p.m. ET in New York, New York.
Florida and Wisconsin both carry the burden of finding enough offense to combine with their old school defensive scheme allowing one of the two squads advance to Sunday's Elite Eight. The winner of this Friday Night Lights affair will face the winner of the South Carolina and Baylor contest on Sunday. The fourth-seeded Gators and eighth-seeded Badgers square off in essentially an oddsmakers pick'em event.
The Badgers have late March and April experience on their team. Two players from the roster have multiple Final Four experience. Bronson Koenig and Nigel Hayes will be expected to lead the Badgers on both sides of the floor, offensive and defensively. The blue collar Koenig has registered 45 points in the first two rounds and Hayes has recorded 35 points in the two Big Dance wins.
The Gators don't have any current player personnel that are Round of 16 experienced but the school is 8-1 all-time in Sweet 16 games. After seeing the current Florida roster defend at a high level there has been little to no drop-off since rim protector John Egbunu was lost for the season in mid-February. The Gators have effectively utilized 6-9 sophomore forward Kevarrius Hayes who is averaging nearly two blocks per game.
The Badgers allow 61.8 points ranking as the 11th-best in all of college basketball while the Gators hold their opponents to 65.7 ppg which is the 37th best points against among all Division I schools.
Both of these teams are very much alike. Both are better defensively than offensively and depend on points from the perimeter. In the first and second rounds, the Gators were stifling defensively, combining to hold their first two foes to less than .70 points per possession.
The Badgers are the more experienced group and will aim to control the tempo against a Florida squad that is more athletic and capable on offense.
The UNDER the TOTAL is a solid 22-8 L/32 when Florida is a favorite on a neutral court while the UNDER the TOTAL is 10-1 L/11 in when Wisconsin is an underdog.
Buster Sports
Wisconsin at Florida
Play: Under 132
Wisconsin and Florida play great Defense and we will be looking to play the UNDER here as we see this game being a possession by possession battle with the shot clock being used up on each possession. Wisconsin comes into this game ranked 11th in the country in Total Defense and the Gators are not all that far behind ranking 37th. Florida does score a lot of points but we believe if the Badgers can hold the Defending Champions to 62 points they will be able to do the same or even better against the Gators. We see this matchup very similar to that one. At the time of this writing the Total is at 132 and we have it at 129 1/2 so we see some value here. Backing our selection is the fact that the UNDER is 6-1 in the Gators last 7 games following a ATS win and the fact that the Under is 10-1 in the Badgers last 11 games as an underdog.
Scott Spreitzer
Brooklyn at Washington
Play: Brooklyn +12.5
We cashed with the Nets last night when they crushed Phoenix. Brooke Lopez remained red-hot and has spoken about being a leader, looking to set the tone for next season. The Nets have been playing sound basketball and have covered eight of their last 10. The Nets are also more cohesive with Jeremy Lin on the floor, which is the case we expect again tonight. Brooklyn as been busy, but there's a new-found energy that the team has been playing with over the last 10 games. The Wizards are in a tough spot. They were off last night, but tonight's opponent is sandwiched between their importan 4-point win over ATL and Saturday's game with the Cavaliers. And the Wizards are just 2-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games. They're also 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 when playing with one day off between games. Washington may win this one outright, but the number is big and we'll grab the points.