Tony Finn
Brooklyn at Washington
Play: Over 224
The New Jersey Nets lead the National Basketball Association in shot per game as well as percentage of shot clock used offensively. The Nets are also one of the Association's worst defensive squads allowing nearly 120 points per 100 possessions this season. The Nets travel to the Nation's Capital on Friday night to square off against conference foe Washington Wizards (-12.5, 224). Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET at the Verizon Center in Washington, District of Columbia.
Statistically the Nets are an NBA franchise that you cannot trust to defend especially on the second leg of a back-to-back. Brooklyn allows 114 points per game on the season and is 8-3 to the over in the second leg of back-to-backs during the 2016-17 campaign. The Nets hosted the Phoenix Suns on Thursday night at Barclays Center making this Friday night affair in D.C their 12th occasion playing on back-to-back days this season.
Washington has struggled both covering the oddsmakers closing numbers and contesting field goal attempts by their opponents as of late. The Wizards have covered just 2 of their last 12 games including six straight and bench boss Scott Brooks and his squad has allowed the opposition to shoot 50 percent and score 115 ppg over the last 12 games.
The Nets are a welcome foe on Friday night. Washington has defeated the Nets dating back to last season five straight times but it is a given that the Wizards defense will be tested against the up-tempo Brooklyn group.
How porous has the Wizards defense been over the last month? The Over is 5-0 in Wizards last 5 games when playing a franchise with a winning percentage of .399 or less, 4-0 in Wizards last 4 home games under the same circumstances and a perfect 5-0 in the Wiz' last 5 home games versus a club with an overall losing road record on the season.
The Over is 5-2 in Nets last seven overall road games when squaring off against a squad with a home winning percentage of .601 or greater and these two have gone Over the oddsmakers closing number in five of their last six overall, dating back to last year.
Ray Monohan
Pelicans vs. Rockets
Play: Pelicans +8
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Pelicans head into Houston, which is no easy task, but grabbing the points here has value.
New Orleans went for it and grabbed DeMarcus Cousins at the deadline. However, after struggling to build chemistry, they sit now 4 games out of a playoff spot. Things have turned around for them, no doubt about that though.
The Pelicans matchup well here. Houston can score a lot, but the Pelicans have a lot of weapons here to keep up.
Some betting trends of note. New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games, and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games. Underdog is 18-8-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.
This is a lot of points to lay against a team that can score inside and out. Grab the points here.
Handicappers Hub
Wolves vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers +6½
Love the Lakers here at home against a Wolves team that will come out strong and then fade and find a way to lose the game tonight in LA. The Wolves are allowing 113.4 points per game in their last 5 games and the Lakers can fill up the cup especially at home where they are scoring 108 points per game. I like the Lakers offense to keep them in the game tonight and cover this number in Staples Center.
Jimmy Boyd
Cavs vs. Hornets
Play: Cavs -3
I really like the value here with Cleveland as a short road favorite against the Hornets. Charlotte comes in having won 3 straight, but it's not as impressive as you might think. They caught a tired Wizards team in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, an injury depleted Hawks team and had to rally to be a horrible Magic team on the road. With Cleveland coming off an upset loss at Denver this might seem like a good spot to go against the Cavs, but that Nuggets team is the real deal. I don't see the Cavs taking this one lightly, as they are now just 1-game ahead of Boston for the No. 1 seed in the east. Cleveland might say they don't want the top spot, but I'm not buying it. The Cavs have owned the Hornets, going 9-1 over the last 3 seasons, including a perfect 3-0 record this season. I look for them to finish off the sweep and easily cover this number.
Bill Marzano
Butler vs North Carolina
Play: Butler +7.5
I really like Butler + the points in this game vs UNC...this is another fantastic matchup and the Butler Bulldogs matchup well vs the Heels in my opinion...I do expect the Heels to find a way to win this game but its not going to be easy...the Heels have won an amazing 12 of their last 12 Sweet Sixteen games...Butler is going to have to be efficient offensively to have a chance in this game because they are horrible offensive rebounding team...Butler is 20-4-2 ATS their last 26 tournament games and 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 vs the ACC.
John Martin
Sacramento vs Golden State
Play: Golden State -17.5
I don't normally lay this big of a number, but I think the situation warrants it tonight. The Warriors are trying to secure the No. 1 seed in the West with the Spurs right on their heels. They have kicked in in gear of late with five striaght wins and four straight covers, beating each of their last four opponents by 16-plus points. The Kings are the least-talented team in the NBA right now. They are 2-11 in their last 13 games with their last three losses all coming by 16-plus points. The Warriors have won their last six home meetings with the Kings all by 19-plus points. They have won by 23, 19, 19, 25, 20 and 33 points, respectively.
Brandon Lee
76ers / Bulls Over 210
I think the books have set the bar way too low for tonight's matchup between the 76ers and Bulls. Philadelphia has been a lot more competitive than anyone expected, especially since losing Embiid and finding out that Simmons wasn't going to play. With that said, defense has remained a major problem for the 76ers, especially on the road, where they are giving up 110.3 ppg. Each of Philadelphia's last 9 road games have each seen at least 210 points. Chicago doesn't feature a great offense, but will have success here against the 76ers. On top of that, the Bulls are playing with a lot of confidence on offense right now. They have shot 47% or better from the field in each of their last 4 games. Note these two played at Chicago back on 1/29 and combined for 129 points in a 121-108 win for the Bulls. I see a very similar type of game here.
Teddy Davis
Pistons vs. Magic
Play:Pistons -2½
Pistons worth a look here after dropping two in a row. They are still fighting for a playoff spot as they are only one game back. The Magic have tossed it in for the season now as they are going no where. Also with Aaron Gordon and Jeff Green questionable it only adds more to he value here with Detroit.
Jack Jones
South Carolina vs. Baylor
Play: Under 135
Both Baylor and South Carolina are 2-0 to the OVER in their two NCAA Tournament Games. I think that has inflated this total a bit in the Sweet 16, and they're going to cash in the UNDER for us tonight as a result.
South Carolina struggles offensively, ranking 121st in the country in offensive efficiency. It shoots just 41.9% from the floor on the season. After scoring 23 points against Duke in the first half, the Gamecocks exploded for 65 points in the second half, which was a complete aberration.
These are two of the best defensive teams in the land. South Carolina ranks 4th in defensive efficiency, while Baylor ranks 13th. The Gamecocks give up 40% shooting and the Bears allow 40.4% on the season. This game will be played at a snail's pace due to the zone defense that forces offenses to work the ball for longer periods each possession. And both teams are very stout defensively in the paint, so there won't be many easy buckets to go around.
South Carolina is 6-0 UNDER in neutral court games with a total from 130 to 139.5 over the last three seasons. The Gamecocks are 11-4 UNDER when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season. South Carolina is 8-0 UNDER in road games versus teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 53-23-2 in Gamecocks last 78 games following a straight up win.
SPORTS WAGERS
Baylor -3 over South Carolina
Baylor defeated USC by a mere four points to get to the Sweet 16 while South Carolina defeated the juggernaut Duke Blue Devils and busted up a lot of brackets in the process. Beating Duke by seven points as a 6½-point dog and scoring 88 points in the process is a resonating statement. There is almost always a reaction to what a team did in its last game and that applies here. In other words, if Duke was 6½-points over South Carolina, Baylor should at least be the same or at the very least a point lower. The Gamecocks victory over one of college basketball’s most successful and storied programs has now created a pretty sweet underlay on the chalk. We’re spotting 3½-less points with Baylor over the Gamecocks than the Blue Devils were and that is just not right.
While we take nothing away from South Carolina’s victory, let’s examine it a little bit deeper. The Gamecocks managed only 23 points in the first half and were down by 11 points very early. The Blue Devils figured it was going to be a breeze but then they went cold from the field while the Gamecocks caught fire in the second half. South Carolina also cashed in at the free throw late line en route to 65 second-half points. Was it a great performance? No, Duke scored 81 points while the Gamecocks were hitting everything. South Carolina racked up 88 points against Duke in the second round and 93 against Marquette in the first round so WHY in the wide, wide world of sports is this total only 135?!! '
There is no crystal ball in the world that can predict whether or not a team is going to get hot or cold from the field but we can make a prediction based on a full season of averages. South Carolina is not a great shooting team. They are league average but caught fire against some very flawed defenses in the first two rounds. The chances of the Gamecocks hitting a high percentage from the floor again, according to the oddsmakers, are slim and none and slim just left the building. The posted total says so. According to KenPom, South Carolina’s offensive rating is by far the worst of any team remaining in the tournament.
Baylor dominates the glass while South Carolina is an average rebounding team and rebounding is so much more predictable than shooting. Baylor dominating or winning the battle of the boards here is almost guaranteed. Baylor would reveal itself not just as a Top 25 team during the season and now into the postseason, but one of the sports’ best, led by one of its premier two-way players in Johnathan Motley and powered by one of the stingiest first-shot defenses the Big 12 has seen in years. Baylor very simply dominates every key area that decides games with the exception of turnovers. South Carolina forces them with a pressure defense but with four days to prepare, the Bears figure to be ready.
South Carolina has already peaked and we saw that in the regular season too when the Gamecocks raced out to a 19-4 start and 9-1 mark in SEC play but looked worn down the last month of the season. They lost five of their last eight and managed to cover only one point spread during that span. After defeating Duke, that’s the worn out team we expect to see today but more than that is we’re getting the Bears at a bargain basement price.
Kentucky +114 over UCLA
This contest initially opened with Big Blue spotting a tiny number to the Bruins. However, as a result of early action rolling in on UCLA, we now have an opportunity to take the higher seed at a better price. We’re in the business of playing value and looking for over and under-reactions to situations and in that regard, UCLA is getting more press and hype than any team in the country because there are more than a few people bringing attention to them.
Make no mistake that UCLA is a legit threat that can win it all and certainly they are capable of winning here. The UCLA Bruins are exciting to watch while being one of the most enjoyable nightly experiences this sport has offered up in years. Freshman guard Lonzo Ball -- yes, the kid whose dad said he was better than Stephen Curry and more recently included better than Michael Jordan too, was even better than advertised. Beyond his shooting 72 percent from 2 (!!!) and 41 percent from 3, Ball's passing feel is once-in-a-decade-level stuff. The lights-out group around him (Bryce Alford, Isaac Hamilton, T.J. Leaf, Aaron Holiday, Thomas Welsh) flows in smooth, dynamic unison. The results are regularly spectacular. We can understand why anyone would want to get behind them because it sometime feels like they can’t lose. Don’t be so sure.
In many ways, this Kentucky team is like any other John Calipari-era Kentucky team in that they are one of the youngest, least-experienced teams in the country. However, they're also one of the best. We suggested that if they got by Wichita State and didn’t allow the bright lights to overwhelm them, look out. For every name one throws out on the Bruins, Kentucky can counter with someone bigger and better in most cases. Clever star freshmen (De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, Bam Adebayo) mixed with a holdover sophomore (Isaiah Briscoe), stalwart role-guy vets (Derek Willis, Dominique Hawkins), championship-level defense, and championship aspirations are what the Wildcats are made of. What makes this game so interesting is that this Kentucky team is unlike any of recent Calipari vintage in one critical sense: It's so bleeping fast. From 2011 to 2016, the Wildcats ranked between 147th and 271st in adjusted tempo (per KenPom.com). This team ranks 9th. The Wildcats average 1.14 points per trip in transition and they get into transition a lot. Kentucky is always young and always good but rarely is it this much fun. The Bruins are about to meet their mirror image and it is absolutely going to come down to which team is shooting the ball better and who gets more chances to sink it. Well, the Wildcats are bigger, quicker and if all things are equal, at the very worst, Kentucky has a better than 50% chance of winning here. If all things are not equal, that being the Bruins get more calls and more bounces, the Wildcats can still win. This is a very simple case of playing the value and letting the chips fall where they may. Kentucky outright.
Pass NHL
Wunderdog
Sacramento @ Golden State
Pick: Sacramento +18
Sacramento is transitioning to a younger team in the post DeMarcus Cousins era and rookie guard Buddy Heild continues to get better, scoring 21 the last game. He was 8-of-16 from the floor while scoring in double figures for the 10th time in 11 games this month. The Kings are 10-4 ATS against the Pacific Division. They are a huge dog to a Golden State team that is not going for the NBA record like a year ago. The Warriors are 3-11-2 ATS when playing on two days of rest, plus 7-21 ATS against a team with a winning percentage below .400. Golden State was a 17-point favorite against the 76ers 10 days ago and won 106-104. They are also 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of 13 or more.
Bruce Marshall
Phoenix at Boston
Pick: Boston
Phoenix looks in dump mode, with SU and spread losses last six after last night's blowout setback at Brooklyn (Blowout? Brooklyn?), and suiting up only 8 players due to myriad of injuries earlier this week. With Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight having been shut down for the season, it leaves Leandro Barbosa and Jared Dudley (and maybe Ronnie Price?) as the only guys not on a rookie or 10-day contract that are still playing for the Suns!
Brad Wilton
Friday night comp play is Golden State as the big chalk at home over Sacramento.
After snapping a 13-game series losing streak on February 4th in a home overtime win over the Warriors, things returned to "normal" in this series when Golden State hammered Sacramento, 109-86 in the teams last meeting on February 15th in Oakland.
Expect another blowout win by the Dubs who have won 5 straight, covering in each of their last 4 wins.
Sacramento has lost their last 3, and 11 of their last 13 overall. The Kings have also gone just 4-8-1 against the spread in that 13 game stretch.
This one should balloon fast.
Play the Warriors to coast to the Friday night home win and cover.
2* GOLDEN STATE
Jack Brayman
My free play for the Friday night card is on the Indiana Pacers, over the Denver Nuggets.
Originally, near the beginning of the season, both the Atlanta Hawks and Pacers were teams considered as threats to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference.
Now they're both just hoping to get homecourt advantages in their first-round series. Neither would if the season ended today. The Hawks are fifth in the East, while Indiana is just one game back of them. The problem for the Pacers is theyr'e also just a game and a half ahead of the Miami Heat for the No. 8 seed.
In reality, Indiana is in must-win mode the rest of the way, if it doesn't want to drop out of the playoff picture altogether.
Confidence should be on high tonight for the Pacers, who have been much better in Indianapolis than on the road. Indiana is 25-10 on its own hardwood, and a dismal 11-25 on the road.
Denver just defeated Cleveland 126-113 on Wednesday, as it won for the eighth time in 12 games. A letdown is probable for the Nuggets, especially against this Pacers team.
Take the home team, as Indy needs this win.
2* PACERS
Black Widow
Detroit Pistons -2.5
Bets on favorites (Detroit) after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games against an opponent after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 34-9 ATS since 1996. The Pistons still have something to play for, while the Magic do not. I'll back the more motivated team here Friday.