Free Picks for Friday, March 31st, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
ROCKETS AT WARRIORS
PLAY: WARRIORS -7.5
Golden State means business now. The Warriors have hit their stride and I don’t think they’re suddenly going to relax here, even though they just beat the Rockets. I need to note that Houston has been outstanding playing without rest and they’re also very tough off a loss. But the Rockets were extended on Thursday night and they seemed to wear out late at Portland. Harden is playing through a wrist injury and he shot it horribly last night, and while Houston will get Harrell back tonight, Anderson is definitely out. I see the Warriors as go with right now and even at a fairly steep price Golden State is the side I would play tonight.
Alex Smart
Blues vs. Avalanche
Play: Blues -1½
St. Louis is 11-1-1 in its last 13 games, and have huge momentum going into the last 10 days of the season. Right now the Blues look unstoppable,as they go against the Colorado Avalanche on Friday night .This meeting between the two sides, will be the third time in less than a month that the teams will play in Denver at the Pepsi Center. In the last two matchups the Blues shutout the Avs 3-0 and took them out again in a 4-2 victory . Considering Colorado is now languishing in a 7 game losing streak, and way out of play off contention, they look very much like fade material here again tonight.
ST LOUIS is 13-1 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in the second half of the season over the last few seasons wining SU by an average of 2.2 gpg. ST LOUIS is 8-0 ATS l/8 against lower tier teams - outscored by opponents by 0.5+ goals/game this season winning SU by 2.4 gpg. COLORADO is 1-14 ATS L/15 when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season dating back to last season, losing SU by an average of 1.8 gpg.
Ray Monohan
Houston / Golden State Under 230
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Houston Rockets will play their second game in as many days when they travel to Golden State on Friday to take on the Warriors. The line has pushed up to 231 which gives it a lot of value.
Not only will the Rockets be playing in a back to back but James Harden is dealing with an injured wrist so his production has been down the last few games.
The Warriors also have been playing a lot better defense as of late only giving up over 100 points once in their last eight games. That one time was 106 points to the Rockets.
Some Trends to note. Under is 7-0 in last seven home games. Under is 6-1-1 in the last seven Rockets road games. The Under is 32-10 on one day of rest for the Warriors.
Although this game will feature good offense, it won't be as much as may are expecting.
Mike Lundin
Philadelphia at Cleveland
Play: Philadelphia +11½
The Cleveland Cavaliers have lost three in a row and five of their last seven. They took a 99-93 loss at Chicago last night, and I think the Philadelphia 76ers will give them a tough game tonight. The Cavs have won seven straight meetings, but the two previous matchups this season have been decided by just a total of five points.
The Cavaliers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games playing on no rest and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. The 76ers meanwhile are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games. Six free pick winners in a row, and the run continues tonight. Take the points on Philly.
Scott Spreitzer
Detroit at Milwaukee
Play: Detroit +10
We have backed the Bucks twice this week, cashing both times, including outright wins at Boston and Charlotte. But while Milwaukee has played their best brand of basketball since March 3, they aren't used to laying big chalk. In fact, the Bucks have laid eight or more points just three times this season and lost all three ATS. They're currently in a fight for the 5th-seed in the Eastern Conference. But the Pistons are fighting for a playoff spot, currently 2 1/2 games out of the 8th and final spot. Detroit picked up a big win last night over Brooklyn and we believe the momentum and intensity will carry over to Friday night's contest. Finally, we mentioned Milwaukee won a pair of games this week when getting points. As reported elsewhere, teams off at least two straight outright wins as road dogs have covered just 9 of their last 43, provided they're playing at least six games in 10 days. The Bucks fit the dubious bill.
Jim Feist
Detroit at Milwaukee
Play: Under 200½
These are two teams that focus on defense first, with Detroit #6 in the NBA in points allowed, Milwaukee #9. Detroit has injuries on offense and is riding a 7-1 run under the total. The Under is 12-2 in Pistons last 14 games playing on no days rest. Milwaukee is home, on a 5-1 run under the total here. The Bucks are on a 14-5 run under the total and when these rivals clash the under is 4-1, including 4-1 under on this court.
Jesse Schule
Rockets vs. Warriors
Play: Under 230½
The Warriors will host Houston tonight, looking to make it 10 straight wins since they lost at San Antonio on March 11. Houston is playing on back to back nights, and their third game in four nights. The first of those four games was a 113-106 home loss to the Warriors. James Harden has struggled, playing through the pain of a lingering wrist injury. He had a season low four assists in last night's loss at Portland, and he could see limited minutes here tonight. "It will get better, but if I keep banging on it and keep falling on it, then it's going to keep going back to Square 1," Harden noted to reporters before Thursday's game. "I try to limit banging on it and keeping it away from contact, (but) it's kinda hard because it's my left hand. I do a lot with my left hand." Despite expectations of high scoring games, these two teams have failed to reach the total in five of the last six head to head meetings. The Warriors have gone under in 10 straight overall, and have held opponents to under 100 points in six of their last eight.
Jimmy Boyd
Pistons vs. Bucks
Play: Bucks -10
The fact that Detroit is still in the playoff race will have some looking to back the Pistons as a double-digit road dog at Milwaukee, but this team has been on a free fall down the stretch. Detroit is just 2-8 in their last 10 games with the only two wins coming against the Suns and Nets. Of the 8 losses, 5 were by 12+ points. Those games were just as important as this one. The Pistons are simply a lost cause right now and I just don't see them snapping out of it on the road against a Bucks team that is absolutely on fire right now. Milwaukee is 13-3 over their last 16 games and just won at Boston last time out as a 7-point dog. I don't see the Bucks slowing down until they clinch a playoff spot (magic number is four).
Detroit is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 when playing on 0 days rest, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games off a home win, 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games when revenging a road loss and 0-7 ATS this season in division road games.
John Ryan
Nuggets vs. Hornets
Play: Nuggets +2
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.
Denver is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) when they make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game this season.
Denver is 14-1 ATS (+12.9 Units) when they make 39% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game this season.
Denver is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games in games where they force 12 or fewer turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
Denver is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season.
Charlotte 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when their opponents make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game this season.
Charlotte is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) when their opponents make 39% to 45% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 2 seasons.
Dustin Hawkins
Sacramento at New Orleans
Play: New Orleans -10½
Coach Alvin Gentry is 89-54 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record like the Kings are - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996.The Pelicans are 44-25 ATS in home games versus poor teams like Sacramento is - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
Info Plays
Pacers vs. Raptors
Play: Pacers +6
I'm taking the Pacers tonight. I have a couple of systems supporting our pick. Indiana is 210-157 ATS (+37.3 Units) on Friday nights since 1996. Indiana is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.
Mike Anthony
Spurs vs. Thunder
Play: Spurs -1
The Spurs are looking good, as expected. They've been particularly aggressive on the defensive side of the ball. What is really tough for opponents, is San Antonio has some veteran pride going for them. They could be a team that still surprises when you think they can't get yet another big win. Kawhi Leonard has been getting them 26ppg and his red hot streak isn't stopping here vs OKC. When the Thunder score 100 or less, they are just so very beatable. Dealing with the guys like the Spurs have on the defensive side of the ball, things don't look very promising. 2nd leading man, Victor Oladipo, has only been shooting the ball around a 40% clip - those kind of numbers don't bode well for OKC. The Thunder was off a HUGE OT win on Wednesday while the Spurs played like crap in the 2nd half and lost to the Warriors. San Antonio bounces back with a big win over OKC.
Rob Vinciletti
Denver vs. Charlotte
Play: Denver +2.5
The Nuggets are fighting for a playoff spot and are final getting healthy as they have Galinari back. Charlotte has failed to cover the last 3 times at home where the total was 220 or higher. To tie in a league wide system we note that, Non division road dogs of 4 or less with rest like Denver are 10-0 to the spread if they scored and allowed 110 or more and lost as a road dog. Look for Denver to take this one in Charlotte.
Marc Lawrence
Washington at Utah
Pick: Washington
Edges - Wizards: 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS in this series when Utah is off a win of 8 or more points, including 5-0 ATS away… Jazz: 3-8-1 ATS home following consecutive wins this season, including 0-6 ATS when Utah is off a double-digit win. With the Wizards 11-3 ATS this season against foes off a double-digit win, and the Jazz looking dead ahead to a revenge game with San Antonio, we recommend a 1* play on Washington.