Brandon Lee
Spurs vs. Thunder
Play: Spurs -2
I'll take San Antonio as a short road favorite against the Thunder in tonight's early ESPN matchup. The Spurs blew a 22-point lead in a 98-110 loss at home to the Warriors last time out. That loss isn't going to sit well with Popovich and company. I look for San Antonio to come out with a chip on their shoulder and that's bad news Oklahoma City, who I think is running on fumes right now. The Thunder just had two thrilling come from behind wins at Dallas and Orlando, but are not playing their 3rd game in 4 nights against a pissed off Spurs team. Note that San Antonio is one of the best defensive teams in the league and will have a game plan for keeping Westbrook under control.
Martin Griffiths
Aberdeen vs. FC Dundee
Play: Over 2½
Aberdeen will be looking to consolidate second spot and will be going for the win, there is no reason they will play for a draw and it is highly likely that they will pick up all three points today.
Dundee are in the relegation dog fight and are desperate for a win, a loss could be very costly and at this stage of the season a draw is not the best either, though of course it is better than a loss.
50% of Dundee's last 10 home games have had at least 3 goals in them, however, when they have played a top five side ( four times) in that sequence every game has been over 2.5, in better words, when they played 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th there were more than 2.5 goals.
Aberdeen are too inconsistent in this regards to find any set pattern, they are just as liable to lose 1-0 to the bottom side as they are to be involved in a high scoring game.
But, I do believe Aberdeen will win and with the way Dundee perform against top five sides and the fact that I am certain they will score then the most logical pick is to go overs.
SPORTS WAGERS
New Jersey +155 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. Last night was the night that sunk the Islanders. Rebounding from that stinging loss figures to be difficult. With Toronto, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Boston and Philadelphia all winning last night, the Islanders dropped from 11% to a 2% chance of making the playoffs. After falling behind 5-0 in the first period to Philadelphia last night because both Thomas Greiss and Jaroslav Halak couldn’t make a save, the Islanders used up a ton of energy in a last ditch effort to save their season. They closed the gap to 5-3 with four minutes left in the third but it was a case of too little, too late and now they’re cooked.
The Islanders made a major run from mid-January to late February to get back in the race. That run also used up a ton of energy. 76 games into the season with so many peaks and valleys and it’s now over for the Islanders. The loss last night was not only exhausting but it had to be mentally deflating too knowing that it’s over. Now what? Do they go back to Greiss? Do they go right back to Halak after he replaced Greiss last night? Playing the tail end of back-to-back games against another team going nowhere, after unofficially being eliminated last night is a difficult assignment to be sure. There is nothing stable about the Isles here.
The Islanders are mathematically alive and that is enough motivation for the Devils to put the inevitable final nail in the Isles coffin. Not being relevant this entire season, the Devils now have an opportunity to at least have some say in the Islanders plight. This is a rivalry game between two teams that are geographically connected and that hate one another. In other words, there are plenty of reasons for the Devils to show up. New Jersey’s quest ended long ago. They have been playing meaningless games for weeks. If this Devils’ squad has any heart in them whatsoever, they’ll take this opportunity to show up and put forth one of their better efforts of the season. Veteran winger Michael Cammalleri, sidelined 13 straight games by an upper body injury, returns to action for the Devils. Recently signed defenseman Michael Kapla will make his NHL debut against the Islanders. Cammalleri adds a veteran presence to the lineup and when he plays, the Devils are absolutely a better team. Meanwhile, Kapla joins a long list of youngsters in the Devils' lineup, as the organization evaluates its players the final week and a half of the season. Including Kapla, seven players ages 22 or younger will skate tonight, meaning there will be plenty of enthusiasm and motivation to finish off this host. Great price on a very live underdog here.
San Jose +118 over CALGARY
OT included. We played the Flames in their last game out and ripped up our ticket after they lost 4-1 to the Los Angeles Kings. Fading Calgary here would be considered zig-zagging, which is something we usually look to avoid doing. Zig-zagging would be defined as betting a team to win and subsequently losing the bet then fading the team you lost with the next game out. That is precisely what we’re doing here and it’s a propensity that many bettors fall trap to but there are exceptions to every rule and this is one of those times.
The Flames got sidetracked last game out. Instead of just playing its game, Calgary had a mindset that they were going to show the Kings that they were “not going to get pushed around”. Prior to the puck drop, Matthew Tkachuk was talking smack to L.A.’s Drew Doughty. Imagine that, a 19-year-old rookie talking smack to an established vet with two rings under his belt, not to mention that Doughty has paid his dues and is one of the best players in the NHL. Well, that lit an unnecessary fire under the Kings and they responded big time. Calgary was more intent on not getting pushed around or being intimidated and it turned out to be one of their worst performances of the season in a game in which they had a chance to clinch a playoff berth.
After the game, Johnny Gaudreau laughingly commented, “we still have five games to clinch. Instead of saying, “we played poorly in an important game and need to be better", Gaudreau shook it off by saying in a cocky manner that they “still have five games left to clinch”. Those are not the signs of a mature team and word gets around quickly in this league. The Flames had a chance to clinch and they didn’t. Tkachuk had a chance to put the Doughty “elbow to the face” behind him and just play hockey (let your game speak) but he didn’t. Gaudreau had a chance to humbly state that his team wasn’t good enough but didn’t. Now that clinching game becomes just a little more difficult and there is a guy on the Sharks that also has a little score to settle with Tkachuk acting like a punk. Here is the video of that:
There is an unwritten code of conduct in this league and Tkachuk has established himself as kind of a jerk. Newcomers need to earn their stripes, respect their elders and pay dues until they’ve got a fair amount of experience under their belt. Tkachuk is a great player with lots of potential but right now he’s lighting a fire under the opposition and we promise you that Brett Burns and the rest of the established vets on the Sharks have a little message for Tkachuk and the rest of the Flames just like Drew Doughty and the rest of the Los Angeles Kings did on Wednesday night. Doughy led the charge and Brett Burns is likely to lead this charge.
SPORTS WAGERS
Coastal Carolina +8½ over WYOMING
The CBI Tournament is a unique competition in that the format for the final is not settled in just one game. The affair is a best of three where each participant gets one home game. If a rubber match is required, the higher seed gets the nod for hosting duties and that is what we are looking at here. Targeting overreactions is the name of the game when it comes to selection criterion. Given that the Chanticleers and the Cowboys met just two days ago in Laramie where Wyoming would power past Coastal Carolina by 24 points, this price is bound to conjure up some market interest. On Wednesday, Wyoming closed as a 7½-point choice and covered easily and now all one needs to do is spot one more point.
While the result is impressive, putting too much emphasis on one game is a bankroll killer most of the time. It’s quite simple why the Cowboys steamrolled CCU and it’s because the underdog had an ice-cold night from the field. The Chanticleers hit an atypical 31.3% of their field goals overall while Wyoming hit 45.5% of theirs. When there is a big discrepancy in shooting % like we saw in Game 2, a blowout will occur. Furthermore, the Chanticleers are normally the stronger outfit in terms of defense, rebounding and committing turnovers. Yet on Wednesday, Coastal Carolina was beat in all three departments. In particular, the Cowboys outmuscled the Chanticleers 39-33 on the glass.
The presiding expectation is that the same result is bound to occur again. However, there is plenty of evidence that Wednesday was just a bad night for CCU. First and foremost, the Chanticleers are ranked 10th nationally in offensive rebounding while the Cowboys are ranked 334th in defensive rebounding. These numbers suggest that Wyoming’s performance was a complete anomaly, thus the market assessment is off too. Secondly, in CCU’s opening game victory against Wyoming at home, the Chanticleers were the stronger team on the glass, as they collected more rebounds (38 – 29) while also committing less turnovers (11 – 15). Additionally, Wyoming’s shooting proficiency hovered around the same number (44.4%) but CCU hit over 47% of their attempts. As a result, the Chanticleers orchestrated a 10-point win as a one-point pup. Wyoming going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 contests is another compelling narrative that comes into the fold here as well. Wyoming also has home court advantage, thus, the evaluation at first glance is that if the Cowboys won by 24 last game and are at home again, surely they can win by just nine. Unfortunately, things don’t work that way. Yeah, Wyoming can win and cover but if Coastal Carolina plays their signature brand of basketball, the Cowboys will have a lot of difficulty putting them away. This is a fair fight to be sure. The Chanticleers are being offered an abundant amount of breathing room to come in under the number here in a game they can win outright. If we lose, so be it but there is just too much value on the table here to pass it up.
Will Rogers
Houston vs. Golden State
Pick: Golden State
The set-up: The Warriors' slump is officially over, as Golden State has won nine in a row (7-2 ATS) and at 61-14, has opened a 3 1/2 game lead over the Spurs with just seven remaining in their regular season. The 51-24 Rockets come to Oakland tonight, secure in their No. 3 seed (own a solid five-game lead over No. 4 Utah) but hoping to avoid a three-game losing streak. The Rockets couldn't handle the Warriors in a Tuesday home loss (113-106) and then they lost in Portland last night, 117-107.
Houston: MVP candidate James Harden (29.3-8.0-11.3) is dealing with an ailing wrist and is just 16-of-50 shooting (32.0 percent!) with 12 turnovers over his last two games (both losses). Houston head coach Mike D'Antoni has long lived and died with three-point attempts and Houston's eight in the loss to Portland raised its season total to 1,083, surpassing the NBA-record 1,077 Golden State made last season. The Rockets have positioned themselves to rest key players down the stretch without risking losing playoff positioning. One guy who could use a break is James Harden, who played through a slightly sprained wrist to score 30 points Thursday night. However, he was limited to a season-low four assists in the loss. We'll see what shakes out tonight.
Golden State: Winning at Houston on Tuesday and then 110-98 at San Antonio on Wednesday, has all but wrapped up the No. 1 seed for the Warriors. Stephen Curry has scored 20 or more in 14 of his last 15 games, including 32 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists in Tuesday's 113-106 road victory over the Rockets. Durant has missed the last 15 games but has picked up his training and it appears he will return to the team prior to the start of the playoffs. "It would be nice for him to get a couple games in before the end of the regular season," Warriors head coach Steve Kerr told reporters, "but everything is going to be based on his health and how he goes along." Kerr also says that hhe plans to manage his players' minutes closely over the final seven games, and it helps that travel will be minimal, as Golden State is home for six of those seven contests.
The pick: Harden has struggled in three meetings with the Warriors this season (Houston is 1-2), shooting 33.9 percent, including 3-of-25 from three-point range, and committing 6.7 turnovers per game while averaging 23.3 points. The Warriors haven't clinched the No. 1 seed just yet, so expect an all-out effort (that may not be the case for Houston). Golden State has won 10 of the last 11 meetings with Houston and I say lay the points in this one.
Antony Dinero
Kings at Pelicans
Play: Pelicans
DeMarcus Cousins was already making jokes about this game against the Kings last night, and you have to imagine he and fellow UK star Anthony Davis are going to wear out their successors down the Big Blue pipeline, Willie Cauley-Stein and Skal Labissiere, now getting big minutes for Sacramento. With the Pels playing better and the Kings capable of scoring droughts, lay the points. Ride New Orleans to roll
Wunderdog
San Jose @ Calgary
Pick: Calgary -129
San Jose had to play last night on the road, another loss, now dropping seven of eight. Offense is the problem #18 in goals scored, and #24 on the power play. They will not have third-leading scorer Logan Couture (52 points) for the second straight game as he was hit in the mouth by a puck against the Predators on Saturday. The Sharks have managed just nine goals in the seven losses during their recent slide. Calgary is home and rested with excellent balance across the board. The Flames are on a 9-2 run at home, as well as 21-6 after scoring two goals or less in their previous game.
Scott Rickenbach
Kings vs. Pelicans
Play: Under 211
Yesterday soon after the lines came out the O/U on this game was a low as a 205 and it is now up in the 211 range as of late morning Friday. This has created great value for the under in this spot given the situation. Sacramento is not known for their defense but none of their last four games have gone over the total and it is also noteworthy that a New Orleans contrarian angle is in effect for this game. When the Pelicans play a team that allows 106 points or more per game the under is actually 18-7 this season and 28-13 the last 3 seasons combined! Also, when off of a divisional game the under is 10-5 in New Orleans games this season and the Pelicans have gone 14-6 to the under this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. The Kings have seen 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record stay under the total while, for the Pelicans, it is 7 of their last 8 staying under when facing a team with a losing record. New Orleans is going to bring defensive intensity tonight because they have double revenge from losses at Sacramento in each of the first two meetings. The Kings are going to bring the defensive intensity because they just got blasted by 30 points in their loss to Utah Wednesday. Look for the under to finish the season a perfect 3-0 in match-ups between these teams.
John Martin
Dallas vs. Memphis
Play: Memphis -4
The Dallas Mavericks' fate is sealed. They are 5.5 games back of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference and have nothing to play for the rest of the way. The Memphis Grizzlies still have a shot to improve their playoff positioning. I liked their effort last time out in a 110-97 home victory over the Pacers. They have actually won their last three home games by 20 over Milwaukee and by 8 over the Spurs to improve to 22-14 at home this year. The Mavs are only 10-25 on the road this season and getting too much love from oddsmakers tonight.
Jack Jones
Detroit at Milwaukee
Play: Detroit +9
The Detroit Pistons are on their last breath. They are 2.5 games behind both the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers for the final two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. They still have a shot, so they aren't going to pack it in just yet.
They showed that last night by picking up a much-needed win over the Nets when they could have folded late. I think that victory will give them the extra energy they need to come back and perform well here tonight in Milwaukee to give themselves a chance to win.
The Bucks could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now as 9-point favorites. They are coming off back-to-back upset road wins at Charlotte and Boston, which has the betting public all over them now. But they lost to the Bulls by 15 in their last home game, and only beat the Hawks by 3 as 7-point favorites in their home game prior to that.
Milwaukee is 6-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Bucks are 18-34 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the past three seasons. The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series.
Tony Karpinski
Knicks vs. Heat
Play: Heat -10
No one is going to slow down against the spongy defense of the Knicks. Their offense has also been very slow since the beginning of March - which is not something they expect to keep going. Head Coach, Jeff Hornacek still has them playing with some heart - and seeking out every opportunity the other team puts on the court against them.
Black Widow
Nuggets vs. Hornets
Play: Nuggets +1½
Bets on road underdogs (Denver) after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games against an opponent off a win by 6 points or less are 40-9 ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Nuggets need wins to make the playoffs as they are 1.5 games behind the Blazers for the 8th seed. They have had the past two days off so they should be fresh and ready to go tonight against Charlotte.
Dave Price
76ers vs. Cavaliers
Play: 76ers +10
The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are a mess right now. They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games, losing by 12 at home to the Wizards, by 29 at the Spurs and by 6 at the Bulls. Now they are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days here against the 76ers. The 76ers keep fighting as they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. I think they'll relish this chance to face the defending champs and give them a run for their money tonight. Philadelphia is 9-0 ATS in its last 9 Friday games. The 76ers are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Cavaliers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
Ben Burns
Islanders -190
Off three straight losses and with their chances of a playoff spot fading by the day, the Isles desperately need to stop the bleeding with a win. The Devils should provide them the perfect opportunity, as they've been terrible for weeks. Off four straight losses and playing out the string, NJ is now 2-12 for the month of March. The home team has won both meetings. Not surprising, on the season, the Devils are just 12-26 on the road. That includes an 0-5 mark when the O/U line was 5.5. Look for the Isles to bounce back.
OC Dooley
Texas A+M Corpus Christie +4
In the semifinals of the CIT Tournament St. Peter's not only got a previously unscheduled game inside their own gym, they faced an opponent (Furman) who had a INTERIM leader after the regular head coach suddenly resigned (on a Sunday) to take a job with Drake University. Due to a SCHEDULING CONFLICT, not only is St. Peter's back on the highway this evening they are visiting the campus of Texas A+M Corpus Christie who will be in a SIMILAR position to what St. Peter's enjoyed in their most recent appearance (a first-ever home game in a national tournament along with National TV coverage). Here is a 67-PERCENT SYSTEM (37-18 the past five years) which plays ON home teams like Corpus Christie after beating the spread by 30+ points in the last three games against an opponent after going under the total by 36+ points in a five-game span