Mark Franco
Raptors at Wizards
Play: Wizards -5
The Washington Wizards struck the first blow in the battle for third place in the Eastern Conference on Wednesday and will try to gain another game over Toronto in the standings when they host the Raptors for the second leg of the home-and-home set on Friday. The Wizards snapped an eight-game regular-season skid in the series and pulled one game ahead of the Raptors with a 105-96 triumph at Toronto on Wednesday. The Wizards held the Raptors to 36.7 percent from the floor in the win, which came one day after the Wizards knocked off the NBA-best Golden State Warriors. After coming out of the All-Star break sluggish with back-to-back losses, Washington bounced back to improve to 20-5 over the last 25 games and stay within two games of the second-place Boston Celtics in the East. Toronto is trying to figure out the flow amongst the starters with Lowry out but is also struggling on the bench. Washington's bench seems to be thriving with the addition of shooting guard Bojan Bogdanovic, who came over from the Brooklyn Nets at the trade deadline and scored at least 15 points in each of the last three games. All-Star John Wall handed out 13 assists in Wednesday's triumph and is averaging 14.3 in four games since the break. Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss. Wizards are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win. Raptors are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Wunderdog
Oklahoma City @ Phoenix
Pick: Oklahoma City -4
Oklahoma City has a sizzling offense, and is 16-5 ATS against a team with a losing record. They face a Phoenix squad that plays no defense at #28 in field goal shooting allowed, and #29 in points allowed. Russell Westbrook has terrorized the Suns this season with 51 points in a 113-110 win, along with 26 points, 22 assists, 11 rebounds in a 114-101 victory in December. The Thunder are 20-9-1 ATS after allowing 100+ points in their previous game. Phoenix is tied with the Lakers for the worst record in the Western Conference. The Suns are 9-27 ATS when following a straight-up win, plus 17-42 ATS after a spread cover. The Thunder have won six straight meetings and 19 of the past 22, along with an 8-3 spread run at Phoenix.
SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay +144 over PITTSBURGH
OT included. The Penguins biggest obstacle in their quest for the Stanley Cup last season came in the third round against the Bolts and not the Cup Final against San Jose. Once the Pens defeated the Lightning in seven games, beating the Sharks was a breeze. The best player in that series was Tampa’s goaltender, Andrei Vasilevskiy, who almost stole that series on his own after Ben Bishop was injured early in Game 1. Close to a year later and the Bolts are being offered a big price in this game because they’re not having a great year and anyone that saw them play on Wednesday against Carolina is certainly not anxious to get behind them here. On Wednesday, Tampa won 4-3 in OT but got outshot by the ‘Canes 31-15 but we’re not going to put emphasis on one game. Wednesday was a day full of anxiety for every team because it was the trade deadline and everyone responds differently. The Bolts are red-hot. With a record of 7-1-2 in their last 10 games and a total of 66 points on the season, the Lightning are just four points shy of the final Wild Card spot with 19 games to go. No line in the NHL has been as powerful as the Nikita Kucherov/Andrej Palat/Tyler Johnson line has since the beginning of February and you would also be hard-pressed to find a defenseman playing better than Victor Hedman is right now too. The Bolts are a difficult out for sure so expect them to be much sharper tonight than they were on Wednesday. By the way, despite being awful on Wednesday, they won.
The Penguins are without Kris Letang and Trevor Daley so they picked up Mark Streit at the deadline to compensate. While Streit has experience and plenty of offensive upside, he’s not going to come close to compensating for the loss of that aforementioned pair. That’s not to say it was a weak pickup because it wasn’t and it’ll help but this market has not compensated for Pittsburgh losing three of its starting d-men (Olli Maatta is also out). The Pens have dropped two in a row and four of six. Their only two victories over that span occurred against Philadelphia and Carolina and they were badly outshot in both. Pittsburgh has recent losses to Detroit and Dallas among others and while they’ll eventually get back in peak form, they are not there right now and cannot be priced like Letang, Daley and Maatta are still in the lineup. Big overlay.
Toronto +136 over ANAHEIM
OT included. The Ducks are the final team to take their bye and while we abandoned that angle this past week, we’re back on it here. The bye angle became such a hot topic in the media that it only made sense that coaches and players were aware of the propensity to be lethargic after a long layoff so they prepared better for it. We saw a bunch of teams win off their layoff last week (Detroit, Islanders and Minnesota) and we saw some other teams lose but not being flat. Now that the “buzz” surrounding the bye week has all but evaporated, there is a good chance that we can catch the Ducks off their game. Being on the West Coast, Anaheim racks up more Air Miles than most. We have seen some of the West Coast Teams come up extremely lethargic after their bye, which included Calgary, Edmonton and Los Angeles. The Ducks have been flat more than their fair share of games this year. The Ducks have also lost nine of its last 15 games and did nothing at the trade deadline. Against top 10-competition this season, Anaheim has seven wins in 21 games and against top-16 competition, they have 10 wins in 29 games. As the chalk in this range after its bye week, Anaheim is getting way too much credit.
The Leafs stock continues to crumble after another OT loss last night. If Toronto misses the playoffs, it’ll be because of the worst extra time record in the NHL, not to mention a nightmare of third periods. Last night, Toronto took a 2-0 lead into the third against a punchless Kings’ offense and lost 3-2 in a shootout. Toronto has now lost four in a row and have failed to score more than two goals in all of them. The footsteps that Toronto is hearing are getting louder and now the Leafs have to go back-to-back but it does not concern us. Toronto had two days off before traveling to L.A. The trip from L.A to Anaheim is not a long one and the Leafs are loaded with young and energetic players. The back-to-back means nothing. These losses build character but let’s not forget that Toronto dominated the first period last night, picked up another point and has picked up points in five of its last six games. In fact, the only time Toronto didn’t pick up a point over that span was when they lost 3-1 to San Jose just before the Kings’ game and that game was tied 1-1 very late in the third. Once again the media is blowing Toronto’s third period and OT troubles way out of proportion. You do not hear them talk about how Toronto managed to get a lead to that point, only how they blew it. The Leafs played a strong two periods last night but ran into a hot Jonathan Quick. Chances are they’ll bounce back with another great effort here but this time, we’re suggesting, they’ll finish the deal against a team with less resistance than the Kings.
SPORTS WAGERS
PRINCETON -7½ over Harvard
These two sit #1 and #2 in the Ivy League with near identical records, thus, this one is for the top seed in the upcoming conference tournament that will begin on March 11. That said, Harvard has a ton of market appeal taking back this many points because they are 7-1 ATS in its last eight games and have won six in a row overall. Furthermore, the Crimson lost by just one point to the Tigers back in Harvard just one month ago on February 4. Adding more appeal to the Crimson is that their last three games have all been decided by double digits with them averaging more than 80 points per and holding opponents to under 66 per game. However, we’re not buying any of it because the best time to sell is when a teams’ stock is high and the stakes are even higher. Harvard can beat up on the rest of the Ivy League but Princeton is a legit threat for a deep tournament run so keep them at the front of your mind when filling out your brackets. With such a strong résumé behind them in terms of overall record and conference record, these points look delicious but we’re strongly suggesting the opposite.
The Tigers were preseason favorites not just in the Ivy League but among mid-major analysts, after returning 14 of 15 players from last season's team. They opened the season by losing four of their first six games. They've ripped off 15 wins in a row since Dec. 22, including a dozen during an undefeated Ivy season and they've done so by executing the old Princeton offense: slowing the tempo to a glacial pace, passing and cutting relentlessly, creating wide-open looks from behind the arc as well as occasional chances for back-door layups. Princeton is shooting from long range on 47 percent of its attempts, which is the 10th-highest rate in the country and tends to neutralize superior opponents' advantages in skills. The last time the Tigers were this good, they landed a 13-seed in the 2011 NCAA tournament and came within two points of beating Kentucky. In a season full of college basketball drama, it is worth placing Princeton’s performance within the wider national context. While it is well known that the Ivy League does not usually measure up to the likes of the Big 12, the Tigers’ recent success implores us to analyze the barrier between the Ivies and the remainder of the NCAA competition. We have done that and will go into further detail if Princeton makes it to Main Event but for now, we’re suggesting that Harvard in not in the same class as Princeton and that figures to be on full display here. Lastly, The Tigers are looking to lock up the top seed in the first-ever Ivy League tournament with a win here. They will be overwhelming favorites to earn the conference's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament but beforfe that, we get them at a reduced price in this one, which prompts us to step in immediately.
WEST VIRGINIA -8 over Iowa State
West Virginia lost 71-62 to #11 Baylor in its last game. If you follow this sport closely and read the local reports, you'd think the sky was falling around the #10 ranked Mountaineers. That loss to Baylor might look bad on paper because WVU now sits fourth in the loaded Big 12 conference but it means nothing. The reality is that West Virginia is one of the best teams in the country that nobody is talking about. The Mountaineers' ticket to The Big Dance has already been punched based on their impressive regular season that already includes three wins over Top-25 teams. West Virginia can add a fourth “signature” win to that résumé tonight in Morgantown over #24 Iowa State, a team they defeated handily just over a month ago.
The Cyclones are one of the hottest teams in the country after winning six straight games. ISU is now ranked in the Top-25 for the first time this season but all that does is raise its profile in the market and inflate its value. Adding to their stock increase is the fact that the Cyclones have jumped into second place in the Big 12. Now the market sees a ranked team taking back eight points against a lower seeded conference opponent. That looks appealing, especially considering the Cyclones took out ranked Baylor during their recent run. That win against the Bears looks great on paper, but Iowa State was lucky to survive after losing the battle on the boards, 33-13 (!). When a team is that badly out-rebounded, they usually get whacked. Of the other teams taken down by the Cyclones during this run, only Oklahoma State finished conference play with a winning record (9-8), and ISU failed to cover that game as a 3½-point home favorite. The last time these two teams played, the Cyclones were a two-point home dog but ended up on the wrong end of a double digit loss, 85-72. It was ISU's worst defeat on its home floor in four years. Much has been written about how that defeat lit a fire under the Cyclones. “Revenge” is the story of the day when it comes to this contest, but that's just more useless noise that can influence the market. Now this overhyped Cyclones’ squad is taking a big step up in competition against a true contender that has a chance to win a Championship and that is undervalued on its home court for the first time in a very long time. That would make this the right time to step in and spot the points.
Scott Rickenbach
Harvard vs. Princeton
Play: Harvard +7½
Simply too many points here. Princeton is at home and the Tigers have a perfect record in Ivy League action this season but they only beat the Crimson by 1 at Harvard early last month. Also, Harvard had won 2 of the 3 prior meetings. The Crimson are 6-0 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Harvard is also 3-0 ATS when they are off of a game where the allowed 60 points or less. Indeed, the Crimson have been playing solid defense and they catch Princeton on an 0-2 ATS run in home games and off of a strong 4-game ATS streak on the road. As a result, the Tigers are now over-priced at home and I see them dropping to 1-3 ATS this season when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. The Crimson would love nothing more than to put that first blemish on the Tigers conference record this season which is currently 12-0. That is plenty of motivation for the Crimson and I don't foresee Princeton being too amped up about this game as they look ahead to the new 4-team conference tournament that gets underway next Saturday at the Palestra in Philly. The Tigers have already wrapped up the #1 seed for the tourney and Harvard will be the more fired up here as they want to prove they can knock off the current #1 Ivy League team in advance of the tourney. The Tigers may again knock off the Crimson but look for, if so, look for it to again be by the slimmest of margins.
Steve Janus
Raptors vs. Wizards
Play: Wizards -5
Play Against - Road underdogs (TORONTO) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half. This system is 30-8 (79%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons.
John Martin
Grizzlies vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs +2½
I expect the Dallas Mavericks to win outright as home underdogs here tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies. The Mavericks have been dominant at home of late, going 9-3 SU & 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. They are making a playoff push and are locked in right now, especially at home. Let's take advantage of yet another line mistake here by the oddsmakers in installing Memphis as the favorite when Dallas really should be favored.
Brandon Lee
Grizzlies vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs +2½
Dallas is worth a look here as a home dog against the Grizzlies. The Mavericks have been playing better of late and it started when Yogi Ferrell took over the starting point guard duties from Deron Williams. I just don't think Dallas is getting enough respect here at home, where they are 8-2 SU over their last 10 and 11-1 ATS in their last 12. The Mavs are going to come out here looking to make a statement against the Grizzlies, who beat them on their home floor back in November by a final of 64-80. Dallas is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 revenging a same season loss.
Mike Lundin
Los Angeles at Milwaukee
Play: Los Angeles -3½
The Los Angeles Clippers need to come up with a big performance here after a humbling 122-103 home loss to the Rockets on Wednesday. They're 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on one days rest. They'll visit a Milwaukee Bucks side that is coming off a 110-98 home loss to Detroit on Wednesday, and the Bucks have won just one of their last four games. The Bucks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games playing on one days rest and 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home. Let's go with the Clippers to be the team to get back in the win column and cover the spread.
Dave Price
Knicks vs. 76ers
Play: 76ers +1½
The Key: One of the best-kept secrets in the NBA is how well the 76ers have performed at home this season. They are 22-9 ATS in all home games thanks to going a perfect 12-0 ATS in their last 12 home contests. They should not be catching points at home here against the hapless New York Knicks, who are just 3-7 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall and quickly falling out of the playoff hunt.
Tony George
Iowa State vs. West Virginia
Play: Iowa State +8
Yes every team Hates traveling to Morgantown WV as it is a brutal road trip to make. This is a battle of two teams ranked in the Top 25 from the mighty and high octane Big 12 conference. I do not think there is pressure on either team as both teams will be highly seeded in the Big 12 Tourney and both teams are making the big dance in 2 weeks as well.
The one thing that has me leaning towards the road team here is West Virginia’s recent slump on offense failing to break 62 points in their last 2 games, and they are 11 points under their season average on offense their last 5 games, and they are coming off a 9-point loss at Baylor as well. This line opened at 7.5 and has shot up to West Virginia -8. One thing you always have to consider is any team who can light up the scoreboard, getting big points, and then throw in the fact that team also is a Top 25 ranked team. Not sold on WV laying this many points on Friday Night, and Esa Ahmad is still out for the Mountaineers as well.
Jack Jones
Raptors / Wizards Under 207
This is a home-and-home situation here with the Raptors and Wizards. They just played on Wednesday in Toronto, and now they face each other two days later in Washington. I always like backing the UNDER in these situations.
That's because points will be hard to come by as both teams are very familiar with one another after playing two days ago. Plus, the Wizards won 105-96 for 201 combined points in the first meeting, so we are getting some value here on the under with this 207-point total in the rematch.
Toronto's offensive production has taken a hit without the services of Kyle Lowry. Their starting PG is an All-Star who will be missed as he's out with a wrist injury until likely the playoffs. The Raptors don't have a serviceable backup point guard, so DeMar DeRozan is being asked to do too much now. And the offense has to slow down to run through him now, which benefits UNDER bettors.
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. The Raptors and Wizards have averaged just 191.3 combined points per game in those six meetings, which is roughly 16 points less than tonight's posted total of 207.
Jimmy Boyd
Miami vs. Orlando
Play: Miami -3½
Miami has gone on an unthinkable 17-3 run over their last 20 games, yet still have an overall record of 28-33. The fact that the Heat were 11-30 before going on this run has resulted in them being a covering machine. The books have been slow to adjust their lines and the public struggles to believe that they are going to be able to keep this up.
Orlando has not looked good since trading Ibaka to the Raptors, save for a blowout win at home over the Hawks, where Atlanta didn't come to play. I don't think we have to worry about Miami not showing up, as they had a flat spot at home against the Magic back on 2/13. Let's also not overlook the fact that Orlando is a mere 9-20 ATS at home this season. Heat are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 when revenging a home loss.
Chip Chirimbes
Miami vs. Orlando
Play: Orlando +4
After an 11-30 start the Heat have gone 17-3 and one of the three losses was to Orlando. The Magic have won three of the last five meetings but have lost seven of their last nine including a home loss to New York their last time out. The Magic re-appear here and burn the Heat.
Teddy Davis
Iowa State vs. West Virginia
Play: Iowa State +8
Iowa St is a team right now you don't want to step in front of. They come into this game with a 6 game winning streak and are looking for some big time revenge. Iowa St was ice cold in their first meeting shooting 39% on their home floor which is very rare. This game means a lot to both schools tonight because if Iowa St wins they get 2nd alone in the conference and if West Virginia wins they would be tied, but they hold the tie breaker. I see the Cyclones being able to keep it close and take care of the ball