DAVE COKIN
ANGELS AT MARINERS
PLAY: MARINERS -155
It just keeps getting worse for the Angels. The starting pitching is not good, the bullpen is shorthanded and not very effective, and now the injuries to position players are piling up. Two more guys went out early on Thursday night, as Cliff Pennington left with hamstring tightness and Yunel Escobar also finished the game in the clubhouse, although I don’t know if that was injury related. In any event, an already beat up team got nicked up even more in what turned out to be the sixth straight loss by the Halos.
The Angels made it interesting late, but in actuality the highlight of the night for the home team was the appearance of a stray cat on the field that got the crowd roaring. And since they lost again anyway, I’m guessing the brownish tabby became “Rally Cat II” for one night. By the way, there was good news on that count as the cat was picked up and taken to local adoption center.
It gets no easier tonight. The Angels have to travel to Seattle to face a Mariners entry that is playing really good baseball. Nick Tropeano has been fair for the Halos, but he’s really not more than a five or six inning guy and hat means likely multiple innings for a bullpen that’s getting chewed up right now having to pitch way too many frames.
Nate Karns is throwing it well for Seattle, and while the Angels did manage to somehow put up ten in the loss to the Redbirds, this is not a good offense. The home team should enjoy an advantage with the sticks and they will have the much fresher relief corps as well.
It’s not cheap by any means at the tag, but the fact is I still think the Mariners are laying less than they ought to be factoring in all the variables. I make the tight price here Seattle -175, so I see enough value to go ahead and fire one unit on the Mariners tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Houston vs. Boston
Play: Boston -147
Boston fits a solid 50-14 System that is based on their blowout win last night. The Sox are averaging over 6 runs per game at home and are 3-0 at home off a 5+ run home win, 19-6 at night and 9-3 here vs Houston. The Astros are 8-19 in night games, 1-10 as a road dog off a 5+ run road loss and have L. Mccullers making his 1st start. Boston has S. Wright on the mound and he has been stellar with a 1.52 Era this season. Look for Boston to take another.
Mike Lundin
White Sox vs. Yankees
Play: White Sox -137
The Chicago White Sox are a perfect 7-0 with their ace Chris Sale (7-0, 1.79 ERA) on the hill this season, and I expect their stud left-hander to lead them to another victory here when taking on the New York Yankees.
Sale is 3-1 with a 1.21 ERA in his career against the Yankees and he's coming off seven strong innings against Minnesota which he held to two runs on three hits with nine Ks through seven innings of a 7-2 win. He has kept runners off the bases efficiently this year posting a fantastic 0.77 WHIP.
The Yankees will turn to Luis Severino (0-5, 6.12 ERA) who has lost five of his six starts this season (six team losses). Severino has allowed a total of five homers in his last two outings, and while he has had good success against Chicago in the past I don't see him outdueling Sale in current form.
Marc Lawrence
Minnesota at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -164
Edges - Indians: Josh Tomlin 7-1 last eight overall home team starts, including 5-0 the last five; and 8-1 home career team starts during May. Twins: Ricky Nolasco 1-3 last four team starts versus the Tribe. With Tomlin in commanding KW form with 19 Ks and 2 BBs this season, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Scott Spreitzer
White Sox vs. Yankees
Play: White Sox -137
The Sox are looking to end a two-game losing streak, while extending their road record to 14-7 on the season. They have a great shot to accomplish those feats with Chris Sale on the hill tonight. Sale has allowed just four earned runs and 23 base runners in his last five starts, spanning 36 1/3 IP. Not only is he averaging over seven IP per start in those outings, but he owns a sizzling, 0.99 ERA & 0.63 WHIP, while allowing just one home run! The southpaw owns tremendous marks on the road and has a 1.34 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and a .177 BAA in his last five starts against the Yankees. New York counters with Luis Severino, who once in a while has shown promise, but when it's all said and done, he's been knocked around for a hefty ERA north of 6.00. The Yanks have dropped all six of the right-hander's starts, losing by a combined score of 37 to 7. I don't believe NYY will find the "sweet elixir" at the plate against Sale. The Yanks rank middle-of-the-pack against lefties in team batting average & OBP, and they're 23rd in OPS. Also, the Sox are night-and-day better than the Yankees in OBP & OPS with runners in scoring position. Toss in MLB's 4th ranked bullpen ERA, and we have the recipe for a White Sox win, in my opinion.
Matt Josephs
Oakland at Tampa Bay
Play: Under 7½
Jake Odorizzi is glad to be home where he has a 1.09 ERA and a WHIP of 0.932 in four starts. The righty is facing an Oakland team that is hitting .247 on the season while scoring 3.8 runs per game. Tampa Bay is 9-5 with a 3.55 ERA and a WHIP of 1.142 this season converting in nine of 12 save opportunities. Rich Hill is 4-3 with a 2.39 ERA and a WHIP of 1.168 in seven starts with four going under the total. Hill held the Rays to one walk and one hit over seven innings at their place last year. He had 10 strikeouts in that one. The Rays are hitting .216 at home going under in 13 of 18 contests there. They are also hitting .224 all year long. Oakland's pen has not lost on the road, nor have they blown a save either. These two have gone under in seven of their last 13 meetings including four of their last seven in Tampa. I like the under.
Larry Ness
Oakland at Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay
Odorizzi has held 5 of 7 opponents to two or less runs TY but has yet to win. His luck changes...
The Oakland A's ‘limp’ into Tropicana Field off FIVE straight losses to Baltimore and Boston. They've been outscored by a whopping 51-18 margin over the last four contests, allowing 11 or more runs in each of the four, which is a franchise first. "It's certainly embarrassing," outfielder Josh Reddick told MLB's official website following Wednesday's 13-3 trouncing by the Red Sox. "You look at early in the year, our pitching was doing well and we weren't swinging the bats, and now it seems the tables have turned on us."
Oakland's rotation posted a 2.88 ERA over its 10-7 start but the team’s starters have gone 3-13 with an ‘ugly’ 8.40 ERA and .327 batting average against during an 18-game stretch in which the A’s are 4-14. In the recently completed series against Boston in Fenway, Oakland became the first team to allow 13 or more runs in THREE straight games since the White Sox did so back in May 1999. Good news for the A’s comes in that the Rays are nowhere near the offensive juggernaut of the Orioles and Red Sox plus Oakland starter Rich Hill (4-3, 2.39 ERA) has been the one outlier during the aforementioned brutal stretch. The left-hander is 3-1 with a 1.46 ERA while holding opponents to a .133 average over his last four starts. He limited the Orioles to a run and two hits over 5.2 innings in Saturday's 8-4 victory, the A's ONLY win in their last 10 games.
Hill is 4-0 with a 1.09 ERA on the road in 2016 and will face a Tampa Bay team that's hitting just .224, while ranking near the bottom of the AL in runs scored. The Rays were 2 for 18 with runners in scoring position in losing three straight in Seattle, after beginning their West Coast trip with a three-game sweep of the Angels. While the above-mentioned is good news, the bad news for the A’s is that Tampa Bay has hit 18 HRs in its last eight games (second only to Boston over that span) and owns a .454 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers.
Jake Odorizzi (0-1, 3.10 ERA) takes the mound for Tampa Bay and remains winless in seven starts. However, he’s suffered just ONE loss. The Rays are actually 4-3 in his starts, with Odorizzi posting a 3.10 ERA and 34-8 KW ratio. He’s been plagued by little or no support this season, as the Rays have scored a total of just 16 runs in his seven starts, including only THREE runs in his four starts here in Tropicana Field. He walked away with a FIFTH consecutive no-decision in his last outing, despite holding the Angels to two runs in six innings this past Saturday.
Odorizzi has been one hard-luck starter in 2016, with ZERO wins despite holding FIVE of his seven opponents (including three straight) to two or less runs. The bet tonight says, his luck changes.
Power Sports
Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Cincinnati
I just can't believe how lucky this Phillies team has been! They won 7-4 in 10 innings yday at Atlanta, which improves them to 4-0 in extra inning games this year. They are also 12-3 in one-run games. I suppose that drawing the lowly Reds right after the Braves might seem like an opportunity for this improbable run to continue, but I think this is a good spot to go against Philly. The Reds had Thursday off.
The two starters for tonight's game are nearly identical in ERA and WHIP But Philadelphia's Jeremy Hellickson has a 4-3 TSR compared to just 2-5 for Brandon Finnegan. Actually, Finnegan even has the slightly better ERA and WHIP as he's allowed 3 ER or less in six of his seven outings. Hellickson has been rocked in two home starts, giving up 10 runs and 17 hits in only 7 1/3 IP.
I think that the off-day gives Cincy a nice little edge here. Keep in mind that they also had Tuesday off due to rain. Before losing Wednesday, they had actually won four of six. Also, there's the fact that they did sweep the Phils at Great American Ballpark last month. Normally that might have me calling for revenge, but not here due to the Phillies' drastic overachieving.
Jim Feist
New York at Colorado
Pick: Under
Matt Harvey of the Mets is finding a groove, allowing 2, 3, 2, 2 and 2 runs his last four starts. Harvey earned his third win of the season Sunday versus the Padres, allowing just two runs with 10 strikeouts and two walks across six innings. Colorado is 25-12 under the total against the NL East. Jon Gray goes for the Rockies, off a game allowing one hit in seven innings, and he's allowed 2 runs his last 13 innings. And the under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
Sleepyj
A's / Rays Under 7
I'm on the under in this one..Two live arms here for us tonight..Both lineups have been sluggish and the travel for them + coming back home leans me to a slow night in the box...Both of these teams best pitchers IMO..Pitchers duel in this one..This one might tick up to 7.5 for a minute or two..If you wait on that you might get lucky..I'll play under 7 though.
Mariners -1.5 +135
Zero faith in LAA right now...Give me the home team here catching some +$ on the RL...Seattle looks to be the much better team at this point of the season.
Brandon Shively
Mets vs. Rockies
Play: Over 10
Anytime you can get a total of under 11 runs at Coors Field, it is definitely worth another look. Looking at tonight’s game, Matt Harvey for the Mets is making his first career start at Coors Field, which is one of the toughest places for a pitcher to pitch. Harvey is still not all the way back to the ‘old’ Harvey either. While he has been solid through the first four innings, it is his 11.25 ERA after the 4th inning that worries me here.
Colorado will call on the young Jon Gray who is an exciting prospect for the Rockies, but he has still not learned how to pitch at Coors Field, giving me more reason to like the ‘Over’ here. He has given up 16 hits in only 8.2 innings at home this year vs the Pirates and the Dodgers. Both games sailed ‘over’ with a total of 17 and 12 runs.
This season at Coors Field pitcher have a 6.28 ERA combined, which is the highest in the Majors as hitters are batting .303 with a .518 SLG%.
The OVER is 7-3 the last ten meetings when the Mets play at Coors Field. The three games that went under were one’s where the total was 10.5-11. When the total was set at 10 or lower (9.5), the OVER is a PERFECT 4-0. Look for another high scoring came in Colorado Friday night!
Bryan Leonard
White Sox at Yankees
Play: White Sox -143
The White Sox have been a major surprise overall this year, but one performance isn't a shock at all, and that's Chris Sale. The amazing lefty continues to dominate and remind everyone of Randy Johnson in his prime. Sale is a major play on in this price range, especially going against a high praised youngster in Severino.
Luis has all the talent in the world but he has walked too many batters and his fastball has very little movement. Control issues and a lack of movement are not a good combination for any pitcher, especially with an offense that has struggled all season.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Los Angeles at Seattle
Play: Seattle -142
Seattle right-hander Nate Karns is having a solid 2016 campaign as evidenced by his 3.38 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, including posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home and a 1.86 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over his last three starts. One of Karns' most effective pitches has become his changeup, which has added nearly two inches of drop and is the catalyst to his current 9.87 K/9 rate. The 28-year-old is coming off three consecutive quality starts and boasts an impressive 38 strikeouts in 34 2/3-innings. The only drawback for the talented righty has been the long ball (1.4 HR/9 lifetime), although pitching within the friendly confines of Safeco Field certainly aids his cause.
Karns is also backed by an outstanding Seattle bullpen that owns a 2.34 ERA and 1.00 WHIP this season, together with a 2.56 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at night and a 2.42 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over its last seven games. Seattle owns the best record in baseball since April 13, and that success can be attributed to both timely hitting and an elite bullpen. Manager Scott Servais said over the winter that a good bullpen would cover up many of the flaws for a first-year manager, and Seattle's relievers have helped their manager look good.
The bullpen is first or tied for first in the majors in seven categories, including ERA and opponent batting average. Not surprising, the Mariners are 8-6 in one-run games already after going 28-29 last year. "We're just going to have to be comfortable being in them. Our starting rotation is going to keep us in games, our bullpen has been very consistent, is going to keep it tight, we're going to be in those games," Servais said.
Meanwhile, the Angels' scuffling lineup is only managing 3.6 runs per game (.244 AVG; .308 OBP), including just 3.5 runs per game at night (.246 AVG; .304 OBP). Los Angeles starter Nicholas Tropeano hasn't won since his season debut and toes the runner with a 5.75 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in his last three outings. Tropeano is young, inexperienced at the big league level and continues to struggle with control (4.83 BB/9) and the long ball (1.71 HR/9). Indeed, the 25-year-old has a 29.5% ground ball rate together with a 4.88 FIP, 4.54 xFIP and 4.25 SIERA.
Tropeano possesses excellent secondary offerings (10.23 K/9), but relying upon those pitches has driven up his pitch count in nearly every start. From a technical standpoint, Los Angeles is a money-burning 0-6 in its last six games, 10-21 in its last 31 road games versus teams with a winning home record and 1-4 in Tropeano's last five starts. Conversely, the Mariners are 6-0 in game 1 of a series, 11-4 versus right-handed starters, 8-3 versus division foes and 5-0 in Karns' last five starts. Take Seattle and invest with confidence.
DWAYNE BRYANT
San Francisco vs. Arizona
Play: San Francisco -143
Shelby Miller is off to a pretty rough start for his new team. His only decent start all season so far was his last start in which he held his former team, the Braves, to two runs over six innings of work. Atlanta has been a complete disaster, especially at home where Miller held them in check. But Miller is on his mound in the desert tonight, and he does not like it if his first four starts there are any indication (8.24 ERA, 1.78 WHIP). Miller has actually walked more batters (21) than he's struck out (20). And that's in just 29 1/3 innings of work! That's a lot of extra base runners for the Giants tonight.
Jeff Samardzija has been solid for the Giants this season. He has allowed three runs or less in all but one start in 2016, and two runs or less four times. Active D'backs hitters own a combined career .213 BA, .298 SLG, and .281 wOBA against him.
The Giants also have the edge in the bullpens based on home/road splits and recent performance. Samardzija will go deeper into the game than Miller. So we should only see the best Giants bullpen arms, while we should see some of that Arizona middle relief.
Arizona swept a four-game series in San Francisco last month, so you can bet the Giants are motivated to return the favor this month. I don't expect them to get the four-game sweep this weekend, but they did win the opener last night and I expect them to grab another W against the struggling Miller tonight.
Teddy Davis
Mets vs. Rockies
Play: Mets -116
The Mets are coming into this game after getting shut out last night vs Kershaw which is nothing to hang their head about. They split the 4 game series @ the Dodgers and I expect them to have no problem here tonight beating the Rockies with Harvey taking the mound. In his 3 starts vs the Rockies he has an outstanding ERA of .39. Gray for the Rockies is getting to much respect here because he coming off two very good outings, but both of those were on the road where he has been great. In his two home starts he has an ERA of 11.42 and has only pitched a combined 8 2/3 innings while giving up 16 hits and 11 earned runs.