Steve Janus
Minnesota at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -145
Play On - All favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (CLEVELAND) - bad offensive team (4.5 or less runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70)-AL, after 2 straight games where they committed no errors. This system is 88-31 (74%) against the money line since 1997 (perfect 3-0 this season).
Stephen Nover
San Francisco vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona -143
It's not just Zack Greinke who has been a huge disappointment so far for Arizona. Shelby Miller has been bad, too, with a 1-3 record and 7.36 ERA.
So why get involved with Miller tonight?
The main reason is a nice home 'dog price. But also the belief that Miller has straighten out much of his problems and that Giants starter Jeff Samardzija is due for a poor outing having thrown 123 pitches in his last game this past Sunday and has a bad history at hitter-friendly Chase Park.
Miller is off his best performance of the year holding Atlanta to two runs in six innings. The Braves have the worst offense in baseball. I realize that. But Miller, who always had a high ceiling, proved himself last season and he said following the Braves game that he made adjustments and changed his mechanics. He said that "helped a ton."
Miller is 2-1 with a 2.22 ERA in five lifetime starts versus the Giants. He's held Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt and Denard Span to a combined 6-for-50.
Samardzija has a 6.75 ERA in two starts at Chase Field. His 123 pitches that he threw on Sunday was the second-highest total of any start he's had.
Jeff Alexander
Blue Jays vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -101
Texas has won 5 of their last 6 overall and are simply showing too much value to pass up at basically a pick'em at home against the Blue Jays. Toronto will send out veteran R.A. Dickey, who has an ugly 5.17 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 7 starts. The Blue Jays have lost 6 of those 7 starts. Texas counters with Martin Perez, who has a strong 2.12 ERA and 1.294 WHIP over his last 3 starts and a 3.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 3 home starts. Texas is 39-18 in their last 57 home games and 26-9 in their last 35 after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game.
Brandon Lee
Tigers vs. Orioles
Play: Under 8½
I really like the value we are getting on the total in Friday's matchup between the Orioles and Tigers. These two teams combined for 12 runs in yesterday's series opener, but that was with a couple of bottom of the rotation starters facing off against each other. Today's contest features a much stronger matchup on the mound, as the Tigers send out Justin Verlander to face Baltimore Chris Tillman. Verlander hasn't gotten off to a great start to 2016, but is coming off his best performance of the season. He allowed just 3 hits over 7 scoreless innings against the Rangers. Tillman is always a good candidate to pitch well at home, as he comes in with a 2.39 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in 5 home starts. Under is 4-1 in Tillman's 5 home starts, 25-7 in the Orioles last 32 home games after hitting .333 or better over a 5-game stretch and 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game.
Martin Griffiths
Tigers vs. Orioles
Play: Over 8½
I won with these two last night and once again I have chosen this game to be my free MLB pick for today.
Yesterday I was confident that Baltimore would overcome the spread and thanks to an awesome 7th innings from the Orioles they did just that, however I felt Detroit were unlucky and they are clearly a team trying their damndest.
I am not as confident that Baltimore will cover the spread this evening, but I am confident that there will be runs in this game and the over 8.5 looks very attractive.
Jimmy Boyd
Mets vs. Rockies
Play: Mets -117
New York is showing great value here as a small road favorite in Friday's series opener at Colorado. The Mets are going to be motivated to get back on the field and get a win after getting dominated by Kershaw and the Dodgers 5-0 last night. Since starting the season 2-5, New York has gone 19-8 and only once during this stretch have they lost consecutive games.
The Rockies have been headed in the opposite direction. Colorado is just 8-13 in their last 21 and have lost 7 of their last 9 games at home. New York is going to send out Matt Harvey, who is a bit undervalued right now due to a 4.50 ERA and 1.475 WHIP, but he's pitched much better of late and is coming off a season-high 10 strikeout performance against the Padres. Harvey will be making his first career start at Coors, but does own a 0.39 ERA and 0.565 WHIP in 3 career starts against Colorado.
Jon Gray will take the mound for the Rockies and I think he's getting a little too much respect here. Gray is coming off two dominant starts on the road against the Giants and Padres, but has really struggled to find a rhythm at Coors Field. He's allowed 11 runs on 16 hits in just 8 2/3 innings over 2 home starts this year. Keep in mind he had a 8.27 in 5 home starts last season, compared to a 2.70 ERA in 4 road starts.
New York is 17-5 in their last 22 after scoring and allowing 5 runs or less in 4 straight games, 32-13 in their last 45 road games with a money line of -110 to -150 and the Rockies are just 10-31 in their last 41 after a win by exactly one run.
Will Rogers
Minnesota vs. Cleveland
Pick: Over
The Indians are returning home to Cleveland from a three-game set at Houston. They've won five of their past six home at Progressive Field and will host a Minnesota Twins team that has lost 11 of its past 12 overall. Tonight's pitching match-up suggests we could see a slugfest in Cleveland.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Indians hand the ball to the still undefeated Josh Tomlin (5-0, 3.72) who has won each of his five starts this year. He'll be looking for a better performance than when he conceded five runs (four earned) on six hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 6-5 win at Minnesota on April 27, and considering his record home in Cleveland in recent seasons that's more than likely to happen. The Twins counter with Ricky Nolasco (1-1, 4.70 ERA) who has posted a 7.00 ERA during a three-game winless stretch. He's 0-2 with a 5.45 ERA in six career meetings with the Tribe.
2. Situational - The Twins lost 9-2 against the Orioles Wednesday. They have gone over the total in eight of their last 10 games at Cleveland.
3. X-Factor - The over is 14-2 in Tomlin's last 16 home starts.
GoodFella
Raptors +2.5 1st Half
I really feel like this Heat club is just too banged up. IMO just too many key pieces either out or not close to 100%. The Raptors have injury issues too, but their best players are fine and playing. I look for the Raptors to come out strong this evening & I think they jump on this injury riddled Heat club. I do lean to them to close out the series as well this evening, but I have chosen to just play a small personal play on Toronto for the 1st half catching +2.5 points. Best of luck if you choose to play along with us here.
BUSTER SPORTS
Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers +110
For our free selection today we go to the Globe Life Park in Arlington,Texas for the game between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Texas Rangers. On the hill tonight we have for Toronto RH, R.A. Dickey (1-4, 5.18 ERA) and for Texas LH, Martin Perez (1-2, 3.51).
Both these pitchers have had slow starts to this years baseball season. We see that Perez however is starting to turn things around. He has a nice ERA of only 2.12 in his last 3 starts and on May 3rd in Toronto held the Blue Jays scoreless for 5 innings. As for R.A. Dickey he did have a nice game as well against the Rangers when he faced them in Toronto but that's the catch it was in Toronto. Last year Dickey was (9-3, 3.11 ERA) at home compared to his terrible (2-8, 4.83 ERA) on the road. Early this year we see more of the same from Dickey on the road with a pedestrian 4.60 ERA in 3 starts although his home record isn't any better. Dickey's career its nearing the end and with Perez not losing at home in 3 starts this year we believe Texas will win this ballgame tonight
Backing us is that the Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 overall and are 9-4 in their last 13 games following a win. The wrong team is favored here.
Bruce Marshall
St. Louis at Los Angeles
Pick: St. Louis
The Cardinals found their offense this week at Anaheim and just completed a sweep of the reeling Angels with a 12-run outburst on Thursday. Now the Redbirds make the short trip up the Santa Ana Freeway for a weekend set at Chavez Ravine, opening against LA starter Ross Stripling, still looking for his first win of the season. Cards starter and former Stripling roommate Michael Wacha is due for a change in luck after losing three straight starts in whicn he pitched decently, as his overall 3.12 ERA would suggest.
Jimmy Boyd
White Sox at Yankees
Play: White Sox
This might seem like a lot of juice to lay on the road, but I actually think Chicago is showing value at this price. The White Sox will send out their ace Chris Sale against the struggling Luis Severino. Chicago is also going to be highly motivated after dropping their last 2, while the Yankees are primed for a letdown after just taking 3 of 4 at home against the defending champs. Sale is a perfect 7-0 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.775 WHIP in 7 starts. He's actually been better on the road than he has at home, as he's got a 1.53 ERA in 4 road starts. Facing the Yankees is also a bonus, as he's 3-1 with a 1.52 ERA and 0.847 WHIP in 6 career starts against New York. As for Severino, it's surprising he's still in the rotation. New York has lost all 6 of his starts and he comes in with a 6.12 ERA and 1.484 WHIP on the season. Sale is a dominant 16-2 in his last 18 starts in the month of May, White Sox are 17-4 in their last 21 with a money line of -110 or higher and 20-7 in their last 27 against a right-handed starter.
Bob Balfe
Raptors +4
This series is getting tight as far as scoring goes. Once you play a team so many times in a row it certainly favors the defense. This series has been close and the injuries are starting to pile up. I see another really tight low scoring game and these 4 points might come into play as it might come down to the wire.
Rays -110
Jake Odorizzi has been money at home this year and Tampa has hit left handed pitching very well this year. Oakland is one of those teams that love to leave runners on base and I can’t see them winning here on the road tonight.
Harry Bondi
LA DODGERS -115 over ST Louis
We continue to clean up in Southern California this week going with and against the Dodgers and Angels so let's keep it going and back the Dodgers over St Louis. Cardinals were our FREE Winner yesterday as they concluded their three-game sweep of the injury plagued and offensively challenged Angels but they will have a tougher time tonight at Chavez Ravine. Ross Stripling gets the ball for LA and despite not having a win the rookie has pitched well. He famously carried a no-hitter through 7 1/3 innings before being pulled in his major league debut in May, a game in which he got a no decision. He has had four other well pitched no-decisions to go with a pair of loses. Birds send Michael Wacha to the hill who has lost his last three starts. Cards feasted on Angels pitching the last 3 games but the Dodgers are much tougher and feature a well rested bullpen and an offense that is ready to break out. We Love LA!
SPORTS WAGERS
Oakland +110 over TAMPA BAY
Jake Odorizzi is a decent pitcher that brings a 3.10 ERA into this game but we do have our concerns. For one, because of his fly-ball lean profile (37%/42% groundball/fly-ball rate) he is always prone to being taken yard. Odorizzi has allowed at least one jack in each of his last three home starts. He has a solid BB/K split of 8/34 in 41 frames but a 55% first-pitch strike rate over his last four starts says he won’t maintain that great control much longer. Odorizzi’s 3.78 xERA is a more accurate account of what he’s capable of at this point in his career. As a young pitcher with just 59 starts at this level over the past four years, Odorizzi needs to reign in the fly-balls before he can be trusted as the chalk. Exhibit A: his extreme ERA splits at his friendly home park (-18% LHB HR) versus elsewhere (2.62/6.32). Exhibit B: a mediocre 52%/29% dominant start/disaster start split that will continue to fluctuate with hr/f% over the course of the year. There's breakout potential, but it may not be as imminent as some may think.
Oh, to be a lefty and blessed with infinite opportunities. After years of chronically terrible control, a changed arm slot at the end of last season actually found something very intriguing for Rich Hill (double-digit K’s vL and vR in four Sept starts). It’s easy to call it a blip, but it was just enough to hold our attention. This year, Hill has our attention. Hill has been one of the game's most skilled starters in the early-going. His April skills were fantastic with 12.8 K’s/9, 3.1 BB’s/9 and 52% groundballs. His 12% swing and miss rate supports a high level of strikeouts too. Hill now has a BB/K split of 16/46 in 38 frames. He keeps hitters off balance the entire game and he seems to do it with such ease. Rich Hill is 36-years-old and he can be labeled as a crafty lefty now but man those strikeouts are incredibly encouraging. Current Rays have just five hits in 35 career AB’s against Hill for a BA of just .143. That’s when he wasn’t nearly as good as he is now. Yeah, we’ll bite.
St. Louis +115 over LOS ANGELES
Ross Stripling owned a nifty 2.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP after three starts but a deeper look told us we shouldn't buy into his quick start. Stripling now has a 3.82 ERA after six starts and he’s coming off a gem in Toronto (6 IP, 1 hit) so his stock is high again. We’re sellers. Save for a groundball tilt, Stripling’s base skills have not been good with 3.3 walks per nine, an 8% swing and miss rate and 60% first-pitch strike rate. A command surge is not forthcoming. A 29% hit rate and 0.3% hr/f have driven Stripling’s surface stats but he’s not someone that warrants being this price against Michael Wacha and the Cardinals.
Wacha has yet to throw a disaster this season. He comes in with a strong BB/K split of 14/38 in 43 frames. He brings an oppBA of just .238 into this start but because the Cardinals have lost his past three starts, his stock is lower than it should be. Those three losses were by no fault of Wacha’s. He threw a seven-inning, five hit, three run game in Arizona followed by an eight-inning, five hit, one run gem against Philly. Wacha was hit a bit harder in his last start against the Pirates but Pittsburgh has always given him trouble, as evidenced in his first start of the year against them, when he was tagged for 10 hits and five runs in 4.1 frames. Take away Wacha’s two starts this season against the Pirates and he’s absolutely dominated everyone else with just nine earned runs allowed combined over five starts. Give the Cardinals a big bullpen edge here and then pencil us in for this take-back.
San Fran -1½ +122 over ARIZONA
Old school attitude on W/L history is that Jeff Samardzija is just "not a winner" but there is plenty of skill here. His control is still rock solid with just 13 walks in 48 innings. Samardzija’s strikeout rate drop last season was not supported by his high swing and miss rate or 94 mph fastball. His fly-ball spike and strand % hurt most last season but those are correctable and it appears as though his new digs are in the process of making 2015 disappear. Samardzija’s groundball rate is up to 50% this season. He has 44 K’s in 48 frames to go along with a 3.17/3.31 ERA/xERA split. He has five pure quality starts in seven attempts and he looks very comfortable out there. Although 30, Samardzija’s arm is still relatively young after converting from reliever to starter when he was 26. From a mid-May perspective, the Samardzija-Giants hookup has the feel of a best-case scenario for both and it could get even better. Of the 30 starters going today, Samardzija’s 21% hard hit ball rate is the best mark on the board.
The real wager here is against Shelby Miller. Expectations for Miller went through the roof, at least among Diamondbacks fans, considering the king’s ransom it took to acquire him from the Braves back in December 2015. Thus far, Miller has been a tremendous disappointment, posting a 7.36 ERA while failing to complete six innings in six of his first seven outings. What’s going on here? Miller’s skills across the board have gone from somewhat decent to putrid. Miller’s control has been atrocious and his ball% (45%) and first-pitch strike rate (52%) also reflect that. Though Miller’s strikeout rate is virtually the same as 2015, his puny swing and miss rate of 6% correlates with a rate in the neighborhood of 5.9 K’s/9. It’s also worth noting the 2 mph decline in velocity compared to 2015. A year after inducing a career high groundball rate, his GB% sits at a career low this year. Miller’s pitch mix has again been vastly different than it was in the previous year, as he has essentially stopped throwing his sinker (2015: 23%; 2016: 1%) in favor of his four-seam fastball (2015: 44%; 2016: 66%). An exorbitant hr/f and unfortunate strand % haven’t done him any favors, but his xERA is unsightly. Recent reports have chronicled the mechanical issues that have plagued Miller so far in 2016. Inconsistent mechanics could go a long way toward explaining the velocity loss and control issues, but that may not be the cure-all here. It appears as though Miller is still in the mixing and matching stage in terms of trying to decide upon his pitch mix, again relying heavily on two pitches just as he was prior to 2015, but it’s a bit peculiar that he would opt to drop the sinker given his move to a more HR-friendly home. Shelby Miller is a mechanical and psychological mess right now and we see no end in sight.
SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH -1½ games +120
This wager is available at many sportsbooks, including Pinnacle and BET365 and what it means is that Tampa Bay will get a 1½-game handicap here. In other words, If Tampa Bay wins this series or the series goes 7 games no matter who wins, this wager will lose. If Pittsburgh wins this series in six games or less, this wager will get paid.
Pittsburgh is a 2-1 favorite to win the series but what sticks out to us more is that they are a smaller price to win this series (exact # of games price) in five games (+310) than they are in six (+437). Before the puck is even dropped, the house is suggesting that the Lightning are in trouble here and we couldn’t agree more.
Tampa Bay easily disposed of Detroit and the Islanders, two teams that backed into the playoffs with absolutely horrible records in the final seven weeks of the season. The Islanders won just seven of their final 18 games with three of those victories occurring in OT. The Red Wings lost 17 of their final 26 games including their last two to the Bruins and Rangers. Both teams were lucky that the Bruins choked down the stretch and that Carolina lost so many games in OT this past season otherwise they both would have missed the playoffs altogether. Tampa Bay also had the luxury of facing the Petr Mrazek/Jimmy Howard duo followed by career backup goaltender Thomas Greiss. Finally, both Detroit and the Islanders played the same way in the playoffs as they did down the stretch. They played with little intensity and they both were not hungry enough to get by a very beatable Lightning team. The same fate does not await the Bolts here.
Pittsburgh defeated, no, check that, blew away Henrik Lundqvist and the Rangers in five games while outscoring them 21-10. They Pens followed that up by disposing of the powerful Capitals in six games with likely Vezina winner, Braden Holtby is goal. Incidentally, Holtby was brilliant in the series but it still wasn’t enough to beat the Penguins. Now the Pens take a huge step down in class while the Bolts take a huge step up in class.
You may read about the Lightning defeating the Penguins three times in three tries during the regular season and believe that the Bolts have a chance here because of it. We say that’s laughable. All three victories came in mid-February or earlier. Jeff Zatkoff was in net for Pittsburgh in one of those losses while Marc Andre Fleury was in goal in the other two. Furthermore, the Penguins outshot Tampa 39-20 in one loss and 40-25 in another. Pittsburgh outshot Tampa Bay in all three games with two of them being by a wide margin. Again, all three of those losses came before February 21. Now the Penguins are peaking, they have an outstanding goaltender that is on his way to a Conn Smythe Trophy and they are also a greatly improved team. They dominated the Bolts back then and they will very likely dominate this series too. Under the hood in those three head-to-head matchups, Pittsburgh tripled the Bolts in high-quality scoring chances in the three games combined. Also under the hood, Tampa’s Corsi For numbers ranked 16th in the league, with the following teams under them: Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary, Ottawa, Rangers, Columbus, Detroit, Buffalo, Vancouver, Minnesota, Arizona, Colorado, Florida and New Jersey. As for Pittsburgh, two teams, Dallas and Los Angeles finished ahead of them in the very revealing Corsi numbers.
Ben Bishop is a Vezina trophy finalist because of the outstanding numbers he put (save percentage and GAA). That’s nice but we’re not buying it for a second. Like most everyone else that has watched a ton of hockey over the years, we have seen Bishop win games on his own but we couldn’t care less. Dude is huge and takes up the entire net so the puck hits him often or glances off his shoulder, arm or stick. We’re strongly suggesting that Bishop isn’t “all that”. Bishop has been yanked in so many games over the years, including at least three in last year’s playoffs. Great goaltenders get yanked from time to time but they do not get yanked as many times as Bishop has over the years. Average goaltenders get yanked often, great goaltenders do not. Don’t be surprised to see Bishop get the hook in this series in more than one game. Matt Murray is completely legit. He’s quick, he’s strong on his feet and perhaps most importantly, the players trust him to come up big. We cannot overstate enough what great goaltending does to the collective confidence of the entire team (see Carey Price).
Tampa Bay didn’t really earn this trip to the Eastern Finals. Instead, the Red Wings and Islanders were worse than they were so one could suggest that they backed in by process of elimination. The Bolts defense is extremely weak that cannot move the puck out efficiently and that coughs it up regularly. We understand that the Bolts had a solid regular season in terms of points but let us point out that they played the 29th (out of 30) ranked schedule in the league and only two teams in the NHL (Buffalo and Edmonton) had fewer wins against top-10 teams than the Bolts did. Tampa beat up on weak teams all season and played five games under .500 against top-16 teams. By contrast, Pittsburgh played the 9th ranked schedule in the NHL and not only did they end up with more points than Tampa, they annihilated top-16 competition in the final eight weeks of the season and well into the playoffs.
The media will do everything in their power to build this up as a fair fight in an attempt to “sell it” to attract interest and viewership. It’s not a fair fight and we could not care less of Stamkos and/or Stralman return.
Tampa being off five days is not beneficial either, as it takes them out of routine and so a sluggish start is a distinct possibility. Meanwhile, the Penguins barely broke a sweat against the Rangers. Washington tried everything to beat the Penguins. They tried to play physical. It didn’t work. The Caps tried to use their speed game but that didn’t work either. Nothing worked. The Caps had some great stretches during the series but for the most part, Pittsburgh held a significant edge in every department. Remember, Washington did not lose two games in regulation in a row in succession the entire season, yet Pittsburgh had a chance to finish them off in five games but sealed the deal in six. Pittsburgh is a powerhouse. They will roll out three outstanding lines and a fourth line that is giving them high quality minutes every single game. The Pens are not satisfied with just beating the Rangers or Washington. They’re hungry, focused, determined, in great form and peaking. The forgotten superstar, Evgeni Malkin is about to go off, you can just see it in his play the past few games. The Pens defeated the Caps without the benefit of Sidney Crosby and Malkin getting their usual amount of points per game production. Again, this is not a fair fight and so we’re going to attack this series aggressively because there is money to be made. We’ll start with a bet in Game 1 at -½ +103 and this series bet.