Dave Cokin
Los Angeles at New York
Play Los Angeles +112
I’ve had a pretty good run in terms of suggestions for the Dodgers coming to fruition. I’ve been on Yasiel Puig’s case for some time. Puig has loads of talent, but he’s either one of the dumbest players of all time or he just doesn’t give a rat’s behind. Take your pick on those counts. But props are in order for manager Dave Roberts.
Just one night after committing two boneheaded plays, Puig decided to admire a well-hit ball that ended up not being a home run. Roberts finally decided enough was enough, pulled Puig from the game and benched him for the next game. It’s about time. I have no idea whether Puig will finally get the message, although my bet would be on the “no”.
I’ve also been ranting about how the Dodgers need to call up pitching sensation Julio Urias. I don’t care whether they start him or place him in the bullpen to limit his innings. But he’s been too good for AAA ball all season, and the Dodgers have finally summoned him to the big club.
Urias is evidently going to both start and relieve, which is fine. That way, the Dodgers can probably keep him at right around 100 innings, while also benefiting from the talent this southpaw sensation owns.
I was hoping that when Urias got the call, it would be on the road. That way, I would avoid having to pay a premium to back him in his debut. So I got my wish, as the kid will be a small underdog tonight as the Dodgers open a big weekend series with the Mets.
Urias is the total package. He has great stuff, and amazing on field maturity for someone so young. Calling Urias advanced for his age is a whopping understatement. I definitely expect him to do well in his very first appearance, and it doesn’t hurt that he’ll face a Mets entry that hasn’t exactly been terrorizing opposing lefties.
Jacob deGrom gets the call for the Mets tonight, and while he’s still very solid, deGrom is simply not pitching at the level we saw from him last season.. The velocity is down substantially and whole deGrom is still getting plenty of swings and misses, his K rate is noticeably down and he just hasn’t been dominating this season.
This has the look off a dynamite duel. But I’d pretty much made up my mind that I would be backing Urias at any reasonable price when he finally arrived, and I’ve certainly received what I was hoping for on that count. I’m on the Dodgers as small road dogs tonight.
Sleepyj
Giants / Rockies Under 11
I'm going to grab the under here due to the pitchers..Yes the Pitchers..Matt Cain IMO has been on this roster and I don't know for what reason...His last two games have been good though and he has shut me up for a bit..I faded his last game and he pitched great against the Cubs..The game prior was against AZ and yet again Cain pitched very well...He hasn't allowed but 1 ER in his last two games..So as of right now, I guess we can assume he is feeling his best and pitching his best...He has seen the Rockies twice this year and was bombed in both outings..Something says he figures out how to maneuver around the deep bats here...Rockies haven;t been home for a bit and I worry the bats may be a bit sluggish here today...On the flip side the Rockies send out Tyler Chatwood...He has been good this year, but his last game Vs. Giants was a beat down...He knows this lineup, but I'm not worried about the hits he gives up here...I'm more worried about him pitching around the big bats and not giving up the deep shot..Giants don't have a ton of power in this lineup..I'd go out on a limb and say the backup catcher was the best player in the series when they met..I remember the games well as I played the backup catcher Brown both days in my fantasy league..he went yard I believe in both games..I doubt he gets the start today, but I wouldn't rule it out...Needing 12 runs to beat us is a bit steep..The numbers suggest this flies over, but both pitchers right now are pitching well..I'll take a shot with the under here.
Rob Vinciletti
White Sox vs. Royals
Play: Under 8
This is a right back starter rematch for KC Duffy and Chicago Gonzalez as they met on saturday in a low scoring 2-1 game. More of the same here tonight as home teams like KC off a road dog loss scoring 5 or more runs on 10+ hits in a game where the total was 8 or less are 12-1 to the under vs an opponent off a home loss. Gonzalez has pitched better and has a 3.30 era in his last 3 starts and Duffy has a 2.15 era on the season and has been slowly stretching out as a starter. Chicago has averaged just 2.4 runs the past week and KC has gone under in 13 of 20 vs winning teams and 14 of 19 at home this year.
Mike Lundin
White Sox vs. Royals
Play: Royals -148
This is the opener of a shortened series after Thursday's contest rained out. The Kansas City Royals have won seven of their past 10 games but failed to sweep the Twins when they fell 7-5 on Wednesday. They're 20-8 in their last 28 games following a loss and 4-0 in their last four during Game 1 of a series, and I think they'll take care of business against the Chicago White Sox Friday night.
The White Sox have dropped nine of their past 12 and will send Miguel Gonzalez (0-1, 4.57 ERA) to the hill. Gonzalez is 0-4 with a 6.00 ERA in his last four outings versus Kansas City and gave up two runs on six hits in six innings of a 2-1 home loss to KC on Saturday (pitching opposite Danny Duffy). Jarrod Dyson is 7-for-8 in previous at bats against the right-hander and Lorenzo Cain 3-for-6 with a homer.
Duffy (0-0, 2.13) held the White Sox scoreless on four hits through 63 pitches in 4 1/3 innings of work in Saturday's contest, his second start of the year. Duffy has been working out of the bullpen for a better part of the season but injuries have given him a chance to earn a spot in the rotation. Duffy is 3-2 with a 3.33 ERA in 12 career appearances (10 starts) against the White Sox, and while his pitch count is likely to be limited tonight as well, I'm not too worried as KC has a very capable bullpen and the White Sox's bats are cold.
Salvador Perez was 9-for-12 in the Minnesota series and is batting .432 during an 11-game hitting streak. He's 5-for-14 with a homer against Gonzalez.
Marc Lawrence
New York at Tampa Bay
Play: New York-108
Edges: Masahiro Tanaka 4-0 career team starts in this series, including 1-0 with 0.00 ERA in this park. Rays: Chris Archer 0-3 last three starts in this series; and 5-9 last fourteen overall team starts. With Tanaka 8-2 in his career team starts during the month of May, we recommend a 1* play on the New York Yankees.
Scott Spreitzer
Orioles vs. Indians
Play: Over 8½
Cleveland has had little trouble scoring runs at home this season, averaging 5.42 rpg. In fact, they have averaged 6.5 rpg in their last 11 games, overall. I like their chances against Mike Wright. The Baltimore righty has lowered his ERA under 5.00 over his last couple of starts, but he's not been too hot on the road this season, where he's posted a 5.94 ERA & 1.32 WHIP in three starts. That's not a big sample size, obviously, but it means a little more when we consider this season's numbers follow a 2015 campaign where he finished with a 6.00 ERA & 1.83 WHIP in five road appearances. Baltimore struggled on offense against Houston this week, but I do believe they'll right the ship enough against Trevor Bauer to aid our Over play. The right-hander has allowed 10 earned runs in 17 1/3 IP at home this season. He faced the Orioles twice last season, allowing four home runs and eight earned runs in 11 1/3 IP. 45 of Cleveland's last 66 home games have gone over the total when they're opposed by a right-handed starter. We mentioned the runs the Indians are putting up at home and we expect more of the same results tonight.
Art Aronson
Yankees vs. Rays
Play: Under 7
The visitors turn to Masahiro Tanaka (2-0, 3.24 ERA), who would scatter five hits and an earned run over seven innings to beat the A’s 5-1 on Sunday. He also struck out four in the extremely efficient performance, throwing 64 of his 92 pitches for strikes and posting first-pitch K’s on 16 of 28 batters. Note that Tanaka has performed very well in this spot already this year, 1-0 with a tiny 1.69 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Chris Archer (3-5, 5.16), who is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up six runs off eight hits over just three innings in a 9-4 loss to the Tigers on Sunday. Archer has been struggling with game-to-game consistency, he’ll look to get back on track as he’d previously posted a 3.18 ERA in his other three starts in May. Archer benefits in facing a Yanks line-up which has struggled on the road, also note that he’s been at his best in front of the home town crowd this season by posting a very repsectable 2.35 ERA thus far. Consider a second look at the UNDER in this one.
Matt Josephs
Tigers vs. Athletics
Play: Tigers -131
The Tigers hit the road to begin a set in Oakland against the A's. Sean Manaea is 1-2 with a 7.61 ERA in five outings for Oakland. He has allowed 22 runs and 31 hits in 26 innings of work. The Tigers come into this one hot offensively hitting .308 in their last seven contests and .267 overall. Oakland's bullpen has a 4.29 ERA and four losses to go with five blown saves. Michael Fulmer is 3-1 with a 5.13 ERA in five starts for Detroit. He is coming off a winning home effort against the Rays where he had 11 strikeouts in seven innings. The potential is there and he should be able to continue that on Friday. Oakland is 8-15 at home where they are hitting .223 as a team. The A's have lost six of their last seven and are hitting .211 over that span. The Tigers pen scares me even though they have just two losses and three blown saves on the road. Detroit took three of four at home from Oakland and should be able to keep that trend going.
Brandon Shively
Los Angeles at New York
Play Los Angeles +115
The story line here is 19 year old Julio Urias making his MLB debut. Urias is said to be the No.2 overall ranked prospect in the Minors. Urias has a 1.10 ERA with 44 K’s in 41 innings pitched in AAA this season and has not given up a run in his last 27 innings pitched. I like to look at taking a pitcher making his debut the majority of the time if it makes sense and this play makes sense to me. Urias has the pitcher’s edge over the Mets lineup that has never seen him before. If the Mets offense was actually hitting the ball right now, I might think twice here, but they are only hitting .215 as a team over the last two weeks, striking out 29% of the time, which only the Brewers have a worse mark in this time frame. The only thing that is keeping me from making this a Premium Pick, is the fact that the line opened up Ny Mets -150 and has dropped roughly 30 cents from the opener. I am a value bettor, and although I still like the Dodgers to win this game, a lot of the value is gone now, so this is going to be a 1* rated free pick.
Jacob DeGrom gets the call for the Mets and DeGrom’s velocity along with his numbers are all down across the board this season. While Matt Harvey has been the talk around the Met’s clubhouse recently, DeGrom has been able to avoid the criticism, and the oddsmaker seems to have not taken notice yet either.
DeGrom is giving up ‘hard hit’ balls 35.7% of the time this season, up from 26.3% last year. His strikeout rate is down for 27% to only 17%. He had a 5.39 K/BB ratio last year and is down to only 2.73 this season. I mentioned a decrease in velocity as his fastball is down a full 2 MPH along with all of his other pitches. DeGrom has a 4.63 ERA for the month of May and has walked 3 batters in each of his last two starts. He faced the Dodgers earlier this season and gave up 8 hits in 7 innings and escaped only giving up 2 runs. Now as his command has been an issue his last couple of starts, I don’t see him cruising past the Dodgers lineup again.
DeGrom has made two career starts at home vs. the Dodgers, and he was a home underdog in both starts. Now the tables have turned with this slightly inflated line and case of 'role reversal'. In six career starts vs. the Dodgers, DeGrom is only getting an average of 3 runs of support a game, which is goes in our favor tonight as well.
The Dodgers come into this game on a four game winning streak and have won 69% of the last 16 meetings in New York.
Larry Ness
St Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Washington Nationals
Max Scherzer (5-3, 3.80 ERA) takes the mound tonight as the Nats continue a four-game home series against the Cards. That 3.80 ERA is a little high (he hasn't finished with a mark that high since 2011 with Detroit) but his recent hot streak began May 11 against his former team, when he fanned an MLB record-tying 20 in a 3-2 home victory over the Tigers victory. Scherzer had another quality start with 10 strikeouts May 17 but the Nationals were shut out by the New York Mets and then he struck out eight while giving up two runs in eight innings of Sunday's 8-2 win over Miami. "I felt like I had good command of all the off-speed pitches," Scherzer said after beating the Marlins. "That's what I'm most proud about. It gives you a lot of options because you have all of them working. I'm kind of getting in midseason form. Sometimes it takes a few starts. Every start I keep getting a little sharper."
Scherzer was plenty sharp against the Cardinals back on May 1, striking out nine while allowing four hits in seven scoreless innings of a 6-1 win. He has a 2.70 ERA in five starts against St Louis, although he’s just 1-2 (teams are 3-2). However, the Cards will counter Scherzer with the struggling Jaime Garcia (3-4, 3.59 ERA). Garcia was ‘rocked’ by Arizona last Sunday, allowing five ERs on 10 hits in just 2.1 innings of a 7-2 defeat. He failed to complete three innings for just the third time in 126 starts and it was his shortest outing since a two-inning stint at Houston back on June 5, 2012. "I didn't feel good warming up before the game," Garcia said. "Coming out of the game in the third inning, you never want to do that. It's definitely a long time you have to think about it. I've got to figure out if there's something I need to do different between starts." Note that Garcia gave up three runs and walked four while laboring through five innings of a 3-1 loss to Colorado in his previous start May 17.
Garcia is 4-2 with a 3.32 ERA in eight starts against Washington (Cards are 5-3) but wasn't very effective against the Nationals back on April 30, allowing four ERs in 6.1 innings of a 6-1 defeat. Scherzer is in a groove (2.31 ERA & 38 Ks in his L3 starts) and I’ll back him vs Garcia and the Cards in this one.
Don Best Consensus
Reds at Brewers
Pick: Brewers
The Reds are on an 0-10 streak while Milwaukee is coming off their first road sweep. Reds starter John Lamb is 0-2 on the season and the Reds are 0-4 when he starts. The Brewers are a respectable 12-12 at Miller Park this season. Brewers pitching is 5th in MLB the L7 days, holding opponents down with a 2.50 ERA
Scott Rickenbach
Orioles at Indians
Pick: Under
I'll take advantage of the line move from an 8.5 to a 9 in this one. We used an under involving the Orioles right here yesterday and that cashed in easily and I expect more of the same tonight. After losing 4-2 in Houston last night the Orioles are now in Baltimore tonight and facing an Orioles pitcher, Trevor Bauer, who has a 0.97 WHIP in his home outings this season. He's coming off of a tough away outing but that was at Fenway Park where the Red Sox hitters are extremely dangerous. Look for Bauer to enjoy success tonight against the O's as long as he can stay away from the long ball because he has held the Orioles to just 11 hits in 11+ innings against them in his two career starts versus Baltimore. The Indians lineup will be facing Mike Wright and they have never faced him. That makes him a "tough draw" for the Cleveland lineup and Wright has given up just 8 hits in 12 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. The under is a perfect 3-0 in the Orioles last 3 games. The O's have had just 1 over in their last 5 games and the Indians have had just 2 overs in their last 7 games. The under is 6-3 in Baltimore games this season where they are a small road dog of up to +125. Also, the under is 20-12 in their night games and 20-12 in their games against right-handed starters. As for the Indians, the over has come in just twice in six games this season when they enter a game on a wining streak of 3 games or more. The Tribe have been winning with pitching and they'll look to do it again tonight. Whether they get the win or not, this certainly should be another Indians game falling short of the posted total.
John Ryan
Pirates vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -132
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-5 since 1997 good for 87.5% winners and made 29 units/unit wagered. Play on all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (TEXAS) - with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season (NL). The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Texas is a stellar 42-24 (+30.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. They are also 53-35 (+32.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons; 20-8 (+15.9 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 2 seasons; 8-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line after scoring and allowing 8 runs or more in a game over the last 2 seasons; 32-21 (+20.5 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 2 seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points Hamels is 12-0 with a 2.99 ERA in his last 18 regular-season starts. He has a solid ERA of 2.43 and a WHIP of 0.937 career against the Pirates. Most impressively Hamels is 7-0 with a 3.87 ERA in 13 career outings in Arlington and can tie Barry Zito tonight with 8-0 in Globe Life Park. Nomar Mazara is on fire with four homers in his last seven games and went deep for the second straight contest in Wednesday's win. Niese has a high 4.50 ERA and a WHIP of 1.667 in two starts against the Rangers. Niese will have his hands more full than Hamels.
Ray Monohan
Marlins vs. Braves
Play: Marlins -120
The Marlins head into Atlanta on Friday and this is simply a fade Atlanta play. Atlanta has been horrible this season, and that's putting it nicely. This team has gone 2-20 at home and they haven't had any good feelings. They're averaging well under 3 runs per game while conceding above 5.
Miami comes into this one with some steam, as they took 3 of 4 from Tampa bay in a home and home 4 game set. They've also been a solid road team this season, going 15-9 away from Florida.
Some trends to consider. Marlins are 7-2 in their last 9 during game 1 of a series. Marlins are 5-2 in their last 7 road games.
With Atlanta not having any offensive punch and their horrific home play, the Marlins at this price hold solid value.
Power Sports
Minnesota vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle -1.5
I'll "roll the dice" and call for the Mariners to win by multiple runs tonight. Actually, it's not much of a "roll of the dice" considering who's pitching (Felix Hernandez) and who the opponent is (Twins).
King Felix has clearly pitched better than his 5-4 team start record would indicate. He has a 2.21 ERA and 1.193 WHIP and just tossed six shutout innings of four-hit ball his last time out. Only one time all season has he given up more than three earned runs. The chances of him dominating a Twins lineup which is dead last in the American League in runs scored is pretty high. Over the last four seasons, Hernandez is a perfect 4-0 w/ a miniscule 0.63 ERA against Minnesota.
Seattle is probably the best team no one is talking about this year as they are 28-18 with a +54 run differential. Only the Cubs and Red Sox can claim to be better both in terms of record and outscoring their opponents. Minnesota, meanwhile, is lousy. Their 12-34 record is tied w/ Atlanta for worst in all of MLB and they are a horrible 4-19 on the road. Starter Pat Dean actually pitched pretty well in his big league debut, but I don't see him being up to the challenge of facing Hernandez tonight.