Nelly
New York Mets - over Los Angeles Dodgers
Julio Urias is one of the better pitching prospects in baseball and he will make his MLB debut tonight for the Dodgers. His minor league K/9 is north of 9.00 in three-plus seasons making a quick rise to AAA and in 41 innings this season he owns a 1.10 ERA. His FIP is 2.89 however and he has a strict pitch and innings limit this season, never eclipsing six innings in his starts this season. He has a ton of potential but also may not be deserving of the line move that now has him in a toss-up matchup with Jacob deGrom. The 2014 rookie of the year had a strong 2015 season in helping the Mets to the World Series and while his season had an unconventional and emotionally taxing start in 2016 he has given no reason to expect anything other than another quality season in the loaded New York rotation. deGrom owns a 3.07 ERA on the season and there is little to suggest there is anything phony in that production. His strikeout rate has been a bit down this season but he has also only made three home starts and only once all season did he allow more than three runs in a game. deGrom was brilliant in two postseason starts vs. the Dodgers last season allowing just two runs and posting 20 strikeouts in two wins for New York and the Dodgers have not had a good start to the season offensively in 2016. The bullpen edge is severe for the Mets with deGrom certainly a good bet to last longer the Urias who will be under a microscope in his debut. The average price to support the Mets with deGrom on the mound has been -170 this season with the Mets 3-0 behind him at home and this will be one of the cheaper prices all season on deGrom and it won't be going against an established pitcher.
Wunderdog
Houston @ Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles +108
Matt Shoemaker comes off his best performance of the season, shutting out Baltimore in 7 1/3 innings, and allowing just three hits with 12 strikeouts and no walks. The bullpen blew the game as the Angels lost 3-1, but ih his previous appearance Shoemaker pitched five innings and allowed three runs in five innings in a 7-6 win over the Dodgers. Mike Fiers has struggled on the road this season with a 5.06 ERA while giving up nine runs and 22 hits in 16 innings. Houston has won three straight after a horrible start to the season, but the Astros are just 7-15 away from home, and they have lost 14 of their last 19 road games against the Angels. Also, Houston is 1-4 in Fiers' last five road starts. Los Angeles is getting good value at home in this matchup.
Chip Chirimbes
Giants at Rockies
Play: Rockies
The Giants are the hottest team in baseball as they have won five straight and 13 of their last 14 contests and have moved into a comfortable lead in the NL West. On the other side of the coin the Rockies are 2-6 in their last eight but are coming off a win at Boston yesterday. San Francisco's Matt Cain (1-5, 5.37 ERA) posted his first win of the season (over the Cubs no less) last time out but is far from what he once was. Even who Cain was effective he struggled against Colorado surrendering 14 runs (12 earned) in last then nine inning his last two starts against them. Tyler Chatwood (5-3, 3.02) last home win was against the giants in April. Look for a win here.
Teddy Covers
New York Yankees -105
The Yankees slow start is a long way in the rear view mirror now. They closed out their last road trip with five straight wins; now 13-7 in their last 20 games. The key to their recent success is two-fold. First, the Bronx Bombers are hitting well, something they weren’t doing back in April. Secondly, their pitching has been nothing short of outstanding, particularly the back end of their bullpen, where Betances, Miller and Chapman (all rested and ready for tonight’s game) have been nearly unhittable; a trio that has allowed a grand total of nine earned runs in 49 combined innings of work. If you don’t get to the Yankees in the first six innings, you’re going to have a real tough time rallying against this bullpen late.
Since Chapman entered the mix following his start of the season suspension, it’s really helped their starting staff. Starter Masahiro Tanaka already shut down this Tampa lineup once this season, holding the Rays to five hits and two runs in seven innings of work. With a career high ground ball rate, coming off a seven inning gem against Oakland, we can expect continued solid results from Tanaka this evening.
I can’t write the same thing about Tampa’s Chris Archer. On June 23rd, 2015, Archer was 9-4 with a 2.01 ERA. Since that time, he’s 6-14 with a 4.63 ERA. So far this season, Archer is struggling mightily with his command, leading to short stints: only 52.1 innings over his ten previous starts. Only one of those ten starts lasted into the seventh inning, compared to 15 such starts last year. Archer is anything but a ‘bet-on’ pitcher right now, yet he still attracts betting market support based on previous results and potential.
The Rays have suffered two major injuries in recent weeks, losing second baseman Logan Forsythe and center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. Neither guy is a household name, but both rank among the best players at their positions in WAR. The Rays are 1-5 in their last six games playing without that underrated duo; a slump that I expect will continue this evening.
Jim Feist
St. Louis at Washington
Pick: Under
Washington is a big park, great for pitchers, and the Cardinals have a good one going in Jaime Garcia (3.59 ERA). He has fanned 51 in 52+ innings and has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched. The Under is 8-1-2 in Garcia's last 11 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Washington is No. 2 in the NL in pitching team ERA and the Under is 17-8-1 in National's last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Ace Max Scherzer goes here, with n 84-18 strikeout to walk ratio in 66 innings! He's allowed 2 runs in each of his last three starts. Scherzer (5-3) allowed two runs on six hits over eight innings while striking out eight in Sunday's win over the Marlins. He was sharp all day, throwing 76 of 103 pitches for strikes and the under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Washington.
Brad Wilton
Let's side with the Under to be the way to go on Friday night at the Air Canada Centre as Cleveland looks to eliminate Toronto from the postseason.
Depending on your line in Game One (Over on the closing price, Under for the better part of the day), this series has seen 4 of the 5 games played hold Under the total.
It has been hard for both teams to crack the 100-point plateau in this series in the same game, and when you consider that the losing team has scored; 84, 89, 84, 99, and 78 points in the losses, it means the winning team had better reach well into the 100's for the Over to be safe.
I do not see that being the case.
Play Game Six Under the total.
Cavaliers-Raptors to go low.
3* CLEVELAND-TORONTO UNDER
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Marlins over the hapless Braves.
Atlanta lost another one at Turner Field last night, as the Bravos dropped to 2-20 at home for the season.
Think about that....2-20 at home for the year!?!?!?!
The crazy thing is, Atlanta did sweep Miami in mid-April in a 3 game series.
Look for the tables to turn tonight.
Miami just took 3 of 4 off of Tampa Bay, and they continue to impress this season at 25-22.
It will be Adam Conley and Williams Perez to the hill, and while Conley is coming off an awful start, and Perez is coming off flirting with a no-hitter for a good 6 innings of play, I still cannot side with the Braves.
This Atlanta team is simply the worst team in all of baseball, and after somehow sweeping Miami last month, I am sure the Marlins will be ready to repay the favor this weekend.
Play Miami.
5* MIAMI
Scott Delaney
My free winner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks getting it done over the San Diego Padres, and we're playing the Snakes on the Run Line.
San Diego is back on a losing skid, having lost four in a row, and tonight I don't think the Padres are going to stand a chance against whomever is on the hill. I think this is the worst time to visit two places: Phoenix or Houston.
In Houston, it's humidity. In Phoenix, blistering dry heat.
The Padres will wilt, as the Diamondbacks have made it be known they're playing with a sense of urgency at this point, as they're seven games under .500 and nine back of division-leading San Francisco. The Snakes could climb the ladder and build momentum with a series sweep this weekend.
1* DIAMONDBACKS -1.5
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 61-50 run with free picks: Baltimore at CLEVELAND (-125)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Baltimore Orioles made a statement the first month and a half this season, rising to the top of the American League East. Unfortunately, things haven't been so easy the past couple weeks, and they're now looking up at the front-running Boston Red Sox. This is a tough trip to make, as the Cleveland Indians are going to ride the city's momentum the Cavaliers have stirred up.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Momentum is key for Cleveland, which just finished a 6-3 trip through Cincinnati, Boston and Chicago. That is no easy trip, with two of those three leading their respective divisions. The Indians' winning run has allowed them to pull within a half-game of first place in the AL Central.
BOTTOM LINE is - In addition to their four-game slide, the Orioles have lost seven of their last 10 games after Thursday night's 4-2 loss in Houston. Now the O's are playing on back-to-back nights, after losing and traveling and simply won't have to time to recoup for this game. All Cleveland here.
1* CLEVELAND
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the defending World Series champion Kansas City Royals, who have now won seven of 10, and might be back on track after a rough start to the season. The Royals lost some consistency from the starting rotation, when Johnny Cueto went to San Francisco, but they've certainly found a groove as of late.
To be honest, the middle three teams in the division are on a run, as second-place Cleveland has also won seven of 10, while the fourth-place Tigers have won eight of 10. A sweep of the White Sox over the weekend could find Kansas City in first place, if the Indians drop one of their games.
Chicago is struggling at the moment, having lost three straight and seven of 10. Last night's lid-lifter was postponed, which means a wasted night, and more to think about with that losing streak. There's nothing worse than that: being on the road, on a losing skid, and then being postponed. Just ruins the mood.
It's Friday night in Kansas City, and I think the Royals win with ease here.
5* ROYALS
Steve Janus
White Sox vs. Royals
Play: Royals -137
Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHI WHITE SOX) - very bad AL offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or less), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL). This system is 37-10 (79%) against the money line since 1997.
Jeff Alexander
Blue Jays -125
I'm backing Toronto at home Thursday night against division rival Boston. The Blue Jays are 5-2 in their last 7 and are going to come out looking to make a statement against the Red Sox. Boston currently leads the AL East and has a 6-game edge over Toronto. The Red Sox are going to send out Joe Kelly, who was dominant in his first start back from the DL, allowing just 1 hit over 6 2/3 scoreless innings at home against the Indians. I believe that start has created great value here. Kelly isn't nearly as good on the road and was tagged for 7 runs in just 3 innings at Toronto earlier this season. Blue Jays will give the ball to Aaron Sanchez, who has pitched very well outside of two starts. Sanchez has owned the Red Sox with a 1.83 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in 3 career starts. That includes a start at Boston earlier this season, where he allowed 1 run on 2 hits in 7 innings of work.
Jack Jones
Texas Rangers -144
The Texas Rangers come into this series with the Pittsburgh Pirates red hot. They have won five of their last six games overall and just got done scoring 15 runs against the Angels on Wednesday before having Thursday off. Pittsburgh had to play Thursday against Arizona and won't benefit from any rest.
But what I really like about this game tonight is the edge the Rangers have on the mound. Cole Hamels is 5-0 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.256 WHIP in nine starts this season. Hamels has owned the Pirates, going 3-2 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in nine career starts against them.
I'll gladly fade Jon Niese of the Pirates, who is 4-2 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.434 WHIP in nine starts, including 2-1 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.652 WHIP in four road starts. Niese is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in two career starts against Texas as well.
Hamels is 14-3 (+9.9 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons. Texas is 8-0 (+10.0 Units) against the money line after scoring and allowing 8 runs or more in a game over the last two seasons. The Pirates are 19-49 in their last 68 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 11-2 in their last 13 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. Texas is 18-3 in Hamels' last 21 starts overall.
Brandon Lee
Dodgers/Mets Under 7
Los Angeles is calling up 19-year-old prospect Julio Urias to make his major league debut Friday against the Mets. Urias is the real deal and it won't be long before he's a star in this league. The kid has thrown 27 scoreless innings in the minors leading up to his start today and has a 1.10 ERA on the season. The Mets hitters have no idea what to expect and I look for a dominant first outing here from the youngster. The Dodgers also figure to find it hard to score runs, as they go up against Jacob deGrom, who has a 2.65 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in 3 home starts and a 2.72 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Dodgers.
Jimmy Boyd
Yankees/Rays Under 7
I think we are getting some great value here on the total in Friday's series opener between the Yankees and Rays. We have two aces on the mound in this one and both are poised to pitch well in this one.
New York will send out Masahiro Tanaka, who is coming off a strong outing at Oakland, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits in 7 innings. Tanaka now has a 1.69 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in 4 road starts, all of which have finish UNDER the total.
Tampa Bay counters with Chris Archer, who has not pitched anywhere close to what people expected so far in 2016. Archer has a 5.16 ERA and 1.605 WHIP in 10 starts. However, he has thrown the ball well at home, where he's got a 2.35 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in 4 starts.
Both starters also have a strong history against the opponent. Tanaka has a 2.67 ERA and 0.852 WHIP in 4 career starts against the Rays, while Archer has a 2.25 ERA and 0.926 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Yankees.
UNDER is 4-0 in Tanaka's last 4 against a division opponent and 8-1 in his last 9 against a team that just allowed 5+ runs in their previous game. UNDER is also 10-2-1 in the Rays last 12 home games against a right-handed starter and 5-1 in Archer's last 6 starts after scoring 2 or less in their previous game.