Dave Price
Houston Astros -114
It was only a matter of time before the talented Astros turned their season around. They may have done just that by sweeping the AL-leading Baltimore Orioles in three games last series. Now they carry some momentum into this series with the Los Angeles Angels. They have the edge on the mound in Game 1 tonight behind Mike Fiers, who is 3-2 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.217 WHIP in 8 starts, including 1-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in his last 3. Fiers sports a 3.95 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles. Matt Shoemaker has been awful, going 2-5 with a 6.81 ERA in 8 starts, including 0-3 with an 8.31 ERA in 4 home starts. Shoemaker sports a 4.50 ERA in 3 lifetime starts vs. Houston. The Angels are 3-13 in Shoemaker's last 16 home starts. The Angels are 0-7 in Shoemaker's last 7 home starts vs. division opponents. Los Angeles is 0-8 in Shoemaker's last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Hollywood Sports
Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
Cleveland (25-20) has won three straight games after their 4-3 win in Chicago against the White Sox. The Indians have won 6 of their last 7 games following a victory. Additionally, Cleveland has won 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Indians are 11-8 at home while Baltimore (26-19) is 9-11 on the road -- and the Orioles have lost 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Baltimore has lost four in a row as they play their seventh straight game on the road. The Orioles have lost 4 straight road games with Wright facing a team with a winning record.
SPORTS WAGERS
ARIZONA -1½ +127 over San Diego
Robby Ray is 1-1 with a 6.30 ERA at home. The D-Backs have lost five of his last six starts by scores of 12-10, 9-0, 4-0, 8-7 and 6-2. Ray walked four batters in his last start and also has a WHIP of 1.61 after nine starts. On paper it looks ugly, but there are things to like about Ray. For one, he’s a hard throwing lefty. Ray also saw a spike in strikeouts from 6.8 K's/9 in the first half of last year to an elite 9.4 in the second half. He has maintained that 9.4 rate this season. Another reason for optimism is that he increased his sinker usage — per Brooks Baseball — in a big way in September of last year, up to roughly 30 percent after starting around just 10 percent in June. He’s maintained that too. Ray was inducing grounders at a ho-hum 34% rate in his early starts last year. In the second half with the increased sinker usage, that jumped to a rate of 49.3%. In his last start, Ray induced 64% groundballs. If Ray can sustain the strikeouts/grounders combo, he might be onto something. Again, he’s a hard throwing lefty (94 MPH average fastball) with 52 K’s in 47 innings this year. Certainly, there are a lot of moving parts here but a deep look under the hood shows a very young pitcher (24) that is learning on the go and absorbing it all. Ray isn’t close to being elite but it could all come together very quickly because he has the talent.
There is not a free agent quality pitcher on the planet that wants to sign a contract with the Colorado Rockies. That place inflates ERA’s and pitchers don’t like seeing their names up on the scoreboard with an ERA of 6.00 beside it. The point is, Colorado’s rotation is the easiest rotation in the league to crack. Christian Friedrich couldn’t crack it.
Friedrich evoked plenty of buzz after being Colorado’s #1 draftee in 2008 and then racking up 159 strikeouts in 119.2 IP the following season during two Single-A stops. The ERA/WHIP soared and K-rate plummeted in Double- and Triple-A trials before reaching the Rockies in 2012. A stress fracture in his lower back knocked him out for the rest of that year and for all but four minor-league starts in 2013. Allegedly healthy in 2014, Friedrich’s AAA-Colorado Springs numbers were sickly: 7.89 ERA, 1.72 WHIP with the league hitting .324 against him. This past winter, the Angels claimed Friedrich off of waivers from the Rockies. The Angels subsequently returned Christian Friedrich to the Rockies due to concerns over an undisclosed medical issue. The Angels said that a physical raised concerns over "Friedrich's ability to play at his accustomed level." The commissioner's office then allowed the Angels to send Friedrich back to Colorado. The Rocks then released him outright and the Padres signed him to a minor league deal before he was called up. That’s where we are right now.
Friedrich has made two starts since his call-up. He’s 0-1 with a 2.89 ERA, which looks pretty sweet on paper but don’t buy it folks. In those two starts covering 9.1 innings, Friedrich has walked nine batters while striking out just six. His swing and miss rate was 6%. He gave up as many line-drives (36%) as he did groundballs (36%). His first pitch strike rate in his last start was 32% and his overall WHIP is 2.04. Just to recap, Christian Friedrich was cut by the Colorado Rockies. He was sent to the Angels and they returned him from where he came from immediately. Friedrich has a 2.89 ERA but a 6.75 xERA and he’ll now pitch at one the most unforgiving parks in baseball. Oh, and the D-Backs are in a foul mood.
Harry Bondi
MIAMI -140 over Atlanta
Don't like having to lay this kind of number on the road with Miami, but with the way Atlanta is playing, it actually looks cheap! Marlins have won seven of their last 12 games while the Braves continue to struggle having lost 7 of their last 10. Neither starter is a prize here but the Marlins are simply playing much better baseball.
BRYAN LEONARD
Chicago at Kansas City
Play: Chicago +130
This play is simply a go against the Royals as Kansas City has struggled offensively all year and is now without key offensive performers. The Royals are digging through the minors in search of help as both left field and third base are being handled by rookies.
Danny Duffy has bounced between the bullpen and rotation throughout his time in the majors. While the Royals do have the starter edge here it’s not nearly pronounced enough to put them in this price range. Nice spot to get the first place White Sox as a solid underdog.
BUSTER SPORTS
Pittsburgh at Texas
Play: Texas -144
The pitching matchups for tonight are for the Pirates LH Jonathon Niese (4-2, 4.75 ERA) and on the hill for the Rangers LH Cole Hamels (5-0, 2.83) Our selection is on the Texas Rangers. Hamels has been pitching great for the Rangers since coming over from Philadelphia last year. He has only 1 loss since the trade. Hamels also knows Pittsbugh very well from his days in the NL and has a lifetime 2.43 ERA and a WHIP of 0.937 against the Pirates. The Pirates will send Jon Niese to the hill and although he has been doing a decent job for the Pirates since coming over from the trade with the Mets, the road has been a rough story for him. He does have a 2-1 road record but a closer look sees that he has had massive run support and he is sporting a 5.87 ERA with a WHIP of 1.652 on the road this year. He also has a 4.50 ERA with a WHIP of 1.667 against the Rangers in two starts. Backing our selection is the fact that the Rangers are 11-2 in their last 13 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record and the Rangers are 18-3 in Hamels' last 21 starts.
DWAYNE BRYANT
Yankees at Rays
Play: Under 7
Masahiro Tanaka has pitched very well for the Yankees, and he is back in good form following a couple of subpar outings. Rays' active hitters have only managed a combined lifetime .167 batting average and .221 wOBA in 62 plate appearances against Tanaka. Tanaka has been very tough on the road, producing a 1.69 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his four road starts. All four of his road starts have gone UNDER the posted total, with an average of only 4.5 runs scored per contest.
Chris Archer's overall numbers leave much to be desired (5.16 ERA, 1.61 WHIP), but he has pitched well at home (2.35 ERA, 1.22 WHIP). Archer has walked way too many batters (26 in 52 1/3 innings), but he gets away with it due to his sick K rate (65 in 52 1/3 IP). Three of Archer's four home starts have gone UNDER, with an average of 5.75 runs scored per contest. Archer is in a bounce-back spot tonight after getting torched for six runs on eight hits in just three innings of work at Detroit in his last start.
If you've followed me at all this baseball season, then you know I love this Yankees bullpen. The 7-8-9 guys (Betances, Miller & Chapman) are one tough trio. The Rays pen is hit or miss, but I expect Archer to go deep into this game. And since it should be a close contest, we should only see the best pen arms when Archer exits.
This has been an Under series (12-5-2 the last 19), especially in Tampa (5-1 the last six).
The only bit of info missing is the home plate umpire. I don't release a baseball totals play to paying clients without factoring in the effect of the home plate umpire. But I'm confident enough in all other apsects of this game to use this as today's freebie.
OC Dooley
Twins +190
With Minnesota having baseball’s worst road record (4-19) and having to face ace Felix Hernandez on the face of it this seems to be a “no win” proposition. But the fact of the matter is that Minnesota has actually WON 5 of the most recent 6 visits to Seattle and are going with an unknown starting pitcher Pat Dean who permitted just three hits in his major league debut. But the big news is a major INJURY to Seattle as Leonys Martin (9 homers) is slated to sit out due to hamstring woes. Not only has Martin been a shocking surprise on offense he is Seattle’s best outfield DEFENDER since Franklin Gutierrez was last fully healthy way back in the 2009 campaign. By pure fielding metrics like “ultimate zone rating” and “defensive runs saved” Martin rates in the top 5 in the entire majors in both categories so one cannot discount his injury. Admittedly Seattle is coming off a 13-3 rout at home but in the past couple of campaigns following a margin win (4+ run) the Mariners have followed it up with a poor 3-10 record in front of their home fans. Even more shocking is that in the past three years after allowing “zero” earned runs in the prior start the great Felix Hernandez has a disastrous “0-6” HOME record
Vegas Butcher
Chicago White Sox +126
These pitches just faced off against one another in their latest starts so what have we learned? Miguel Gonzalez went 6 innings with a 8:0 K:BB rate and a SIERA of 2.2, his best outing of the year. By comparison, Duffy went 4.1 innings (by design as he’s been a reliever all of this season) with 3:0 K:BB rate and a SIERA of 4.4. He gave up a lot of fly-balls (54%) as well as line-drives (23%), and had an average 17% K-rate. I know the sample size of one game is pretty meaningless, but the point here is that Gonzalez was very successful against this mediocre KC lineup. White Sox didn’t do much either but when you compare each offense, I think Sox have an edge tonight. They rank 9th against the lefties, while the Royals are only 20th against right-handers. Throw in the fact that KC is dealing with a number of injuries to a few of their key guys (Moustakas / Gordon), and I really like the offensive edge the White Sox will have in this matchup. Too much value on them in this spot.
GoodFella
Rangers TT Over 4.5
Of course a nice hitter friendly ball park here for us. Decent weather pattern and the Pirates Niese is a fly ball pitcher who's really struggled at times this season. These Rangers have had real good success vs LH pitching and I do expect them to get to Niese eventually. I also like the fact that the Pirates will most likely not have their very good closer available to them tonight. Just way too many ways for these Rangers who excel vs LH pitching to plate at least 5 runs at their hitter friendly home park in this spot tonight.