Free Picks for Friday, May 5th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
CAVALIERS AT RAPTORS
PLAY: RAPTORS 1H -1.5
If you’d like the rationale for what I’m doing here, check either of the last couple blogs as the methodology is largely the same as it was in the Rockets-Spurs on Wednesday as well as the Celtics-Wizards last night.
Cleveland has dominated the first two games, and look vastly superior to Toronto. Basically, the series to date is a rerun of what we saw last year between these two. if the pattern continues to repeat, the Raptors will show dramatic improvement tonight. That’s certainly not something I can chisel in granite, as I’m sure not expecting the Cavs to simply mail it in with a 2-0 lead.
But this should be the spot where Toronto puts its best foot forward, and I’ll continue to look for good play out of the gate from teams in this scenario. The oddsmakers aren’t making it easy as Toronto is actually favored for the first half, but I also see that as a positive indicator.
Same wager as the last two nights for me, half unit on the 1Q and the other half on the 1H with the Raptors the play this time.
Jim Feist
Predators vs. Blues
Play: Under 5
Both teams are very strong on defense, with St. Louis #12 in goals allowed. Both goalies have been hot in the playoffs and the Blues prefer a slow, defensive-oriented pace at home. Nashville is on a 12-4-5 run under the total. St. Louis is 18-5-4 under the total against the Western Conference, plus the Under is 23-11-4 in the Blues last 38 games playing on 2 days rest. And when these teams clash the under is 54-23-9 under the total.
Scott Spreitzer
Marlins vs. Mets
Play: Mets -105
New York has scored 30 runs its last three games, which has helped to overcome the numerous injuries the Mets have suffered so far this season. Now they face Tim Koehler, who is 2-8 with a 4.56 ERA against the Mets in his career, including last year when Koehler was 0-3 with a 6.41 ERA and .337 opponent batting average versus New York. Rafael Montero was called up to fill in for Noah Syndergaard and he posted a 1.74 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings at Triple-A Las Vegas. The Mets have a rested bullpen if Montero gets in trouble as they were rained out yesterday and won 16-5 on Wednesday. The Marlins have lost 10 of Koehler's last 13 starts dating to last season and six straight this season in the first game of a series. Miami has lost seven of its last nine games and has scored more than two runs just twice its last eight games.
Doc's Sports
Cavs vs. Raptors
Play: Cavs -1½
We liked the Raptors in Games 1 and 2 as they played the Cavs tough in the regular season and Cleveland’s first-round series against the Pacers wasn’t a cakewalk despite it being a 4-0 sweep. But after the first two games it’s clear that Cleveland is elevation their game to another level and that this will likely be another quick series. Not only do the Raptors looked outmatched but Kyle Lowry left Game 2 with a sprained ankle and is questionable here. We don’t think Toronto has much of a chance here unless Lowry is 100%, and from what they showed us so far they don’t have much of a chance at all unless Cleveland has a bad game. But they seem very focused now and have played their best basketball of the season the last few games. They have elevated their play big time, and we like them laying the small number here on the road in Game 3
Marc Lawrence
New York vs. Chicago
Play: New York +115
Edges - Yankees: Pineda 3.14 ERA and 1.05 WHIP this season; and 20K’s and 4 BB’s his last three starts… Cubs: Hendricks 6.30 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at home this season, with 13 K’s and 9 BB’s his last three starts… With the Pinstripes 8-2 the last 10 game in this series, we recommend a 1* play on the NY Yankees.
Tony Karpinski
Cavs vs. Raptors
Play:Raptors +3
Toronto played second place in their bad loss already when playing Cleveland. Toronto isn't going to allow Cleveland to do what they want on the offensive side of the ball again this time. DeMar DeRozan has been great in particular vs the Cavs, with his 29/gm and his ability to get shots off anytime he wants. His size at the SG position is a lot to handle for the Gs of Cleveland. In game 1 - the Raptors still showed something good enough to take them here.
This Cleveland team does not have the heart to beat tough teams with consistency. It took them a long time for this team to get confidence and consistency winning games they should win. They struggle to stay focused at times as their W/L has shown in the past. Not keeping their foot on the gas has been a terrible problem for them. Mentality is key here.
Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss. Toronto gets a win here at home on Friday night in Game 3.
TJ Pemberton
Nashville at St Louis
Play: Nashville -105
The Nashville Predators head back to St. Louis to take on the Blues in game-five of this series. The Predators have won both games played in St. Louis this series and lead 3-1. The Predators beat the Blues 2-1 on Tuesday night on their home ice where they split two games. Nashville has outscored the Blues in this series 11-8.
Nashville has won just two of their last seven games played in St. Louis but both of those wins were in the playoffs. Pekka Rinne will take his spot between the pipes for the Predators where he has been solid. Rinne has allowed just one goal in each of the last two games after allowing three goals in both of the two games prior.
Predators are 22-8 in their last 30 vs. Western Conference.
Predators are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. Central.
Predators are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Blues are 5-12 in their last 17 Conference Semifinals games.
I am all in on the Predators right now as you should be too. After sweeping their first round of the playoffs, Nashville looks like a team that is firing on all cylinders. Rinne is playing solid in the goal right now which is what a playoff team needs. The Predators win 4-2.
Dustin Hawkins
Marlins vs. Mets
Play: Mets -105
A pair of teams that have taken different routes to the same record will square off Friday night, when the New York Mets host the Miami Marlins in the opener of a three-game series at Citi Field. NY Mets are 92-56 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons.Head coach Terry Collins in his 7th season as manager of the Mets is 14-5 against the money line after a game where they had 17 or more hits .
Art Aronson
Penguins vs. Capitals
Play: Over 5
So far three of four in this series have gone below the posted number, but we’re expecting a more wide-open affair in Game 5. The Pens have a 3-1 lead and clearly the the Capitals will be pushing the pace from start to finish. Washington outshot the Pens 38-18 in Game 4 and were still saddled with a 3-2 loss. But the Capitals’ break-neck speed tonight will also create opportunities for the opportunistic Pens on the other end as well. In our professional opinion, the overall “situation” definitely lends itself to a higher-scoring affair. And note, the numbers/trends also point to a “shoot-out,” as Pittsburgh has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of 11 this year when playing with two days rest, while Washington has seen the total go OVER in seven of 11 in the exact same position. Looks like we may have a “barn-burner” on our hands in Game 5, consider the OVER.
Bruce Marshall
Rangers at Mariners
Pick: Rangers
Both of these sides could use a jolt, but that's more likely to be the Rangers tonight thanks to the pitching matchup. More specifically, Yu Darvish, who has pitched extremely well in four of his last five starts, allowing two runs or fewer in those four. Less confident in Mariners starter Yovani Gallardo and his 5.08 ERA, with Seattle losing 4 of his 5 starts.
Greg Smith
Cavs at Raptors
Play: Raptors
The Raptors need to stop this bleeding now if they want to keep this series at least interesting. I believe they will. They are back at home where they have played very well in this playoffs and regular season. I like the Raptors to finally get a win at home and make this game interesting.
Ray Monohan
Giants vs. Reds
Play: Under 9
The Giants and Reds kick off a weekend series on Friday night and the Under has all kinds of value in this one. The Giants have a stud on the mound in Matt Cain. In his last four starts he has only given up a total of three runs, and I look for that type of domination to continue in this game. At the plate the Giants have all kinds of problems scoring runs. They average 3.45 runs per game which is 29th in baseball.
On the mound for the Reds is Bronson Arroyo who has struggled this season, but given the Giants struggle at the plate he should be able to keep the bats in check. Some trends to note. Under is 6-1 in Giants last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Under is 26-8-4 in Arroyos last 38 starts with 4 days of rest.
Tony George
San Antonio at Houston
Play: Houston -4½
I have 2 words for you - TONY PARKER - the floor general for San Antonio is out and that is a HUGE blow to the Spurs. Add in the fact the Rockets are off a butt kicking where Harden played terrible, and they are at home, this line should be 7 in my opinion.
Harden is banged up a little and the stats all favor the Spurs - but messing with team chemistry on the fly at this point in the season despite Coach Pop being one of the best, is a tall chore. Houston just 1-6 ATS on their home floor the last 7 games, I am NOT riding that trend here.
Andrew Gold
Marlins vs. Mets
Play: Mets -106
Montero is making his first start of the season and I believe we are catching some value there with him. He is being called up because of their ace being hurt in Syndergaard. The Mets have no won back to back series both on the road so I see them having the confidence roll over here.
Koehler is really struggling for the Marlins. He has just recorded one quality start in his last three outings. His last three starts his ERA has been over 7.