Teddy Davis
Yankees vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -114
I will take my chances here with the Cubs as they have no won 3 straight. The Yankees are no doubt playing very good baseball themselves, but I don't trust Pineda here.
Hendricks has struggled in two home games this season, but his recent form after back to back away starts tells me he is back. He last two games he went 12 innnings striking out 9 and only giving up 2 earned runs. His ERA is 3.18 his last three starts.
Pineda has been pitching well this season, but all of his best performances have came at home. It's hard to back someone facing a potent offense like the Cubs when their ERA is 7.27 on the road.
Jimmy Boyd
Blue Jays vs. Rays
Play: Rays -134
I like this spot for Tampa Bay with their ace Chris Archer on the mound. Archer rebounded from a couple ugly starts in his last outing, allowing just 1 run on 4 hits over 7 1/3 innings on the road against Toronto. That was Archer's 7th straight start against the Blue Jays in which he's allowed 2 earned runs or less.
Archer is also a much better pitcher at home than he is one the road. Tampa Bay has won all 3 of his starts at home , compared to going 1-2 in his 3 starts on the road. Keep in mind during last year's disappointing season, he had a 2.65 ERA at home compared to a 5.44 ERA on the road.
Toronto is a mere 5-11 on the road and have lost both of their road games when veteran Francisco Liriano takes the mound. Liriano has a 11.13 ERA and 2.827 WHIP in those 2 road starts (only 5 2/3 innings). Liriano also owns a ugly 5.18 ERA and 1.430 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Rays.
Chase Diamond
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -101
This game has the 17-13 Arizona at the 18-11 Rockies. The Diamondbacks played yesterday in Washington and had to fly to Colorado to take on a Rockies team fresh off a big win over the Padres who we backed yesterday. Despite German Marquez lackluster first two starts I love this guys stuff and he's facing off with Greinke who just isnt the same pitcher anymore. A little jet lag in play tonight and I love the little to no juice tonight.
Wunderdog
Cleveland @ Toronto
Pick: Toronto +4.5
Toronto finds itself in the same situation as last year's playoffs when it lost the first two games to Cleveland on the road before coming home to win two straight. DeMar DeRozan is ready to break out with a big game after scoring only five points in Game 2. Jonas Valnciunas came off the bench to score 23 points and Cory Joseph added 22 points, but the Raptors were only 5-for-17 from three-point range.
Tony Finn
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Play: Texas Rangers -122
The American League West Texas Rangers visit the Seattle area on Friday night to begin a three-game series against the Mariners. This West Coast contest is slated to see first pitch at 10:10 p.m. ET at Safeco Field.
Texas starter Yu Darvish received an extra day of rest for tonight's start against Seattle after pitching deep into his last turn. Darvish struck out 10 and only allowed 2 runs in his six innings of work against the Los Angeles Angels. The reason for the extra rest is due to the Japanese import throwing 125 pitches, most by any pitcher so far this season, versus L.A. This followed Darvish’s previous start that saw him throw 113 pitches against Kansas City, also a win for the Texas right-hander.
Darvish may have a lifetime record of 0-3 in his three starts at SafeCo Field in Seattle but the 14 earned runs on 15 hits combined with 11 walks in just 16 1/3 innings are misleading and are not what they appear in the box scores. His hard hit percentage in these starts are below his career average and he suffered some defensive lapses in those three starts.
Seattle veteran starter tonight, Yovani Gallardo, failed to impress in the spring and wouldn't be starting for half of the American League. In fact, his days as a starter for Seattle are numbers. Gallardo is coming off a 2016 campaign that saw him records an ERA of 5.42
Gallardo has one win since last September. The M's righty has allowed at least four runs in three of his last four turns and while he has struck out seven in each of his last two starts, versus Oakland and Cleveland, he combined for just nine in his first three outings. The Rangers know Gallardo well and he was part of the Texas roster in 2015. Gallardo is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in two career starts against his former team and the expected Texas lineup tonight has a .333 batting average against versus Yovani.
The pitching mismatch in this Friday night event is overwhelming. And if it isn't clear to you by now that Gallardo isn’t going go ever be an elite starter, then read further. Gallardo depends on inducing ground balls as his HR to flyball ratio is ugly. It’s hard to be optimistic or back a veteran pitcher that has lost nearly 4 m.p.h. on his fastball since joining the American League and one with a strike out to walk ratio that isn't at least two-to-one since he made the switch. Before the All-Star break of this season, and even throwing half of his starts in pitcher-friendly SafeCo, expect him to have allowed an average of two home runs per game.
The Prez
Cardinals at Braves
Play: Under 8.5
St. Louis takes to SunTrust Park field in Atlanta in a Senior Circuit affair against the Braves. First pitch is scheduled for 7:35 p.m. ET in Cumberland, Georgia.
The St. Louis Cardinals have rebounded from a slow start in April by winning 10 of their past 15. The Braves are playing much better than they did at this point last year especially defensively. The Braves have committed eight errors in their past 20 games but have a .989 fielding percentage that ranks third in the bigs.
The Cardinals are never going to be an offensive juggernaut but they have the pitching staff to compete in the National League Central. Right-hander Lance Lynn takes the hill tonight for the Cards. In his first full year back from Tommy John surgery the St Louis starter has performed with superior form. With six innings of one-run ball and seven strikeouts in Milwaukee last Friday, Lynn lowered his ERA to a stellar 2.45 on the season. In 29.1 innings, Lynn’s K:BB sits at 25:10 which is typical of pitchers coming off TJS. Lynn's velocity and underlying peripherals are equal to those of his pre-surgery form and has a matchup tonight against a Braves team that has outperformed 2017 expectations.
Lynn has held right-handed batters to a .125 average with a .196 slugging percentage and 18 strikeouts in 56 at-bats so far this season.
Despite not having a win through his first five appearances (four starts), Foltynewicz has allowed only four earned runs in 20 innings across his past three starts. The Braves starter doesn't miss as many bats to make him an investment each and every fifth day but his slash lines .260/.336/.550 against LH hitting and .260/.314/.394 against RH hitting make him a go tonight against a Cardinals team that is going to compete from the starter through the bullpen most of the summer.
Brad Wilton
I just don't get this line!?!?!?
Cleveland has ripped Toronto a new one through the first 2 games of this series, covering both Game 1 and Game 2.
Cleveland has now won 6 straight this postseason with 4 straight covers.
Cleveland is the defending champions, and they are playing a Toronto team that lists Kyle Lowry as questionable with a turned ankle.
How in the world are the Cavs only favored by 3 points?!?!?!
This line makes no sense at all.
When I see a line like this in the NBA, I immediately think TRAP!
Last year we had the same scenario, as Cleveland won the first 2 games of the East Finals over Toronto at the Quicken Loans Arena, then went North of the Border and stubbed their toes in Games 3 and 4 as the Raptors got a major boost from the home court and crowd.
I am looking for "deja vu all over again", as I will back the wounded Raptors to bow-up and put their 30-14 straight up home court mark on the line as they finally get a win over the Cavaliers.
It's now or never for Toronto, and I say they summon a winning effort tonight against a Cleveland team that is about due for a banana peel slip.
Take the home dog on Friday.
4* TORONTO
Jack Brayman
My free play for Friday is on the Over in the Miami Marlins-New York Mets game, and in this contest, since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are Tom Koehler and Rafael Montero If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
So here's the deal with these two pitchers...
Koehler has been victimized by home runs, as he's been throttled for seven in five starts. And while you'd think he may be excited to return to New York - he was born in the Bronx - he's actually had a rough time pitching inside Citi Field. In Queen, the right-hander is 1-3 with a 5.58 ERA. And lifetime against the Mets, he is 2-8 with a 4.56 ERA. He will get chased early
Now, don't be so quick to jump on the Mets, either. I'm playing this Over because the Marlins could get to Montero quick too. The right-hander can be either really good, or really bad. There is no in between. And I think once the Mets' bats get going, the Marlins will be swinging for fences and could hit the ball hard tonight.
I like this one to get into double digits.
3* Marlins/Mets Over
Jeff Benton
Friday comp play is Nashville to close out their Western Conference Semifinal series with St. Louis on the Blues home ice tonight.
The Predators have looked like the team to beat in the West for a while now, as they swept away # 1 seed Chicago in 4 straight games, holding the Blackhawks to just 3 goals in those 4 wins.
In this series, the Preds lead 3-1 in games, and they have outscored the Blues, 5-2 in the last pair of games in this series to build that commanding 3-1 lead.
St. Louis simply cannot score on Pekka Rinne, and that is not likely to change tonight just because they are at home. Nashville has won 5 of the past 7 series meetings, and 7 of the last 10 overall.
Look for the Preds to advance.
3* NASHVILLE
JOHN MARTIN
Giants/Reds Over 9
Both Matt Cain and Bronson Arroyo are washed up. I realize Cain has pitched well in the early going, but it's not going to last based on his track record over the past couple seasons. And this is a hitter-friendly park in Cincinnati tonight. Cain gave up 4 runs in 5 1/3 innings in his last start against the Reds, a 9-7 home victory for the Giants. Arroyo has a 7.20 ERA over five starts this season while allowing six homers in 25 innings. The OVER is 12-1 in Reds last 13 home games vs. an NL starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.70 or better.
MIKE LUNDIN
Blue Jays vs. Rays
Play: Rays -134
The Tampa Bay Rays host AL East rival Toronto Blue Jays for the opener of a three-game set Friday night. They've started the week by winning three of four games against the Fish, and I like the Rays here with their ace Chris Archer (2-1, 3.43 ERA) on the hill.
Archer limited the Blue Jays to one run on four hits through 7 1/3 innings of work his last time out. He's been solid and allowed two runs or fewer in four of his six starts this season.
The Blue Jays turn to Francisco Liriano (2-2, 3.97 ERA). He held the Rays to one run on four hits through five frames his last time out, but he was charged with five runs on three hits and four walks here at the Trop in his season debut on April 7. Liriano is 3-3 with a 5.49 ERA in 12 career appearances against the Rays and has been owned by Evan Longoria who is 7-for-23 with a pair of homers against the southpaw.
The Rays are 5-2 in Archer's last seven home starts vs. Toronto, and this looks like a fair price on the home team.
BRANDON LEE
Detroit vs. Oakland
Play: Oakland -113
Love the price here with Oakland at home in this one. The A's are perceived as a horrible team and constantly show great value, but you need to pick your spots with bad teams.
I believe this is one of them. Oakland is coming off a win in which the offense exploded for 8 runs on 14 hits, so they are going to be confident at the plate.
The edge on the mound is even in my opinion and you could argue LA has the advantage given Triggs has a 1.84 ERA in 5 starts and Fulmer owns a 3.19 ERA in 5 starts.
It's also worth mentioning that Detroit has a losing road record and are a mere 1-7 in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record.
STEVE JANUS
Cavaliers vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors +5
Any team (CLEVELAND) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games.. This system is 173-134 (56%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons
MIKE MENASE
Dodgers vs. Padres
Play: Padres +1½
I am happy to take the opportunity to take the Padres on the run line at a low price, as I think they have an excellent chance of winning this game. But we take the insurance run to be sure, especially considering that Maeda may have finally found his groove in his last outing, his first and only quality outing this season, at home vs the Phillies
Chacin gives the Padres their best chance of winning. He is a different pitcher at home then he is on the road. Already this season, he has pitched 14.2 scoreless innings at home, while he is 1-3 with a 10.24 ERA on the road. So even though he got shelled in Los Angeles, I am not worried. The Dodgers have only had their best success against power pitchers and fly ball pitchers, and Chacin is neither. He possesses a variety of pitches that keeps opposing hitters off balance and the location at which he places pitches makes them very hard to hit. His walk rate, meaning his command of the plate, is miniscule at home compared to on the road, meaning that he is able to effectively locate his pitches in front of his home crowd. I expect him to give Dodgers batters trouble tonight, and I don't expect Dodgers batters to be as ready as they were in Los Angeles as away from home their ops is merely .650 compared to .793 at home. I expect Chacin to pitch well tonight. Despite their low ranking, as measured by a high ERA, I like the Padres bullpen to pitch well tonight as well. Hand did throw 38 pitches in yesterday's elongated affair, but Buchter and Maurer should be ready to go and they have been enjoying good seasons.
Maeda did pitch well in his last outing vs Philadelphia, but I still wait for him to succeed on the road as, away from Los Angeles, his career ERA is 4.27 compared to 3.51 at home. The Padres' offense has been rather lackluster overall, but as long as they are not facing a power pitcher, which Maeda is not, I am willing to back them. Against finesse pitchers their ops is .666 compared to .581 vs power pitchers. Maeda has struggled against the Padres in his last two starts, with a 5.24 fip in his last outing at home vs them and a 5.40 fip in his prior outing in San Diego. Maeda has not shown that he can pitch effectively on the road, particularly in San Diego, and the reason is the Padres' relative effectivity against finesse pitchers in general. The Padres should have success at home against Maeda.
I expect this to be a tight game. With a run total of 7.5, statistical probability is on our side when we take the underdog on the run line, since a sparser variety of outcomes are possible compared to when oddsmakers expect there to be a high run total. The Padres, behind Chacin at home, have an excellent chance of winning this one. But we take the Padres on the run line at a nice price to be safe.
JACK JONES
Cardinals vs. Braves
Play: Braves -114
The Atlanta Braves are showing solid value as small home favorites over the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. The Braves are scoring 4.7 runs per game on the season while the struggling Cardinals are scoring just 4.1 runs per game.
The Cardinals have a couple key injuries heading into this game to two of their best hitters. Center fielder Dexter Fowler is expected to miss this game with a shoulder injury, while right fielder Stephen Piscotty is doubtful with a hamstring injury. That leaves their outfield in shambles.
I like what I've seen from Mike Foltynewicz, who has posted a 2.28 ERA and 1.183 WHIP in four starts this season. He has faced the Cardinals once in his career, giving up just one earned run in 6 innings of a 6-3 victory last season.
The Braves are 7-1 in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record.