TONY STOFFO
Rangers vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners +113
Texas hands the ball to RH Yu Darvish, 3-2, 3.03 ERA, who threw 115 and 126 pitches in back-to-back victories. Darvish is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA in his three starts in Seattle. The Rangers are 1-5 in their last six road games and 4-9 in their last 13 games following a win.
Seattle is heating up as they had 28 hits and 19 runs while winning the final two contests of a three game series against the Angels. The Mariners already swept a three game road series against Texas earlier this season. The Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle.
LARRY WALLACE
Rangers vs. Mariners
Play: Rangers -1½
I like the Rangers in this match-up against Seattle. Darvish is 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA while pitching on the road. Gallardo is 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA while pitching at home this year. Rangers are 5-1 in Darvish's last 6 starts on the road. Seattle is 1-4 in Gallardo's last 5 starts.
DENNIS MACKLIN
Cavs vs. Raptors
Play: Cavs -4½
DMack's Free Play for Friday, May 5, 2017 is on the Cleveland Cavaliers
The line opened at 2/2.5 and at this writing there are not even any 4s to be had so at this point the horse is pretty much out of the barn. That said, the Cavs are 7-1 L8 in the series and have won their last three games on this floor by 26-3-4. Lowry is playing on a rolled ankle and DeRozan has been invisible leaving the Raptors with little offense and definitely no trade points with a Cavs outfit that shot lights out at The Quick. The Cleveland masterplan has to be to go out and get this one and then get the sweep on Sunday to maximize rest as Boston and Washington slug it out on the other side of the bracket. Toronto could put up a fight in the first half but that's it. Cleveland 120-106.
DAVE PRICE
Boston Red Sox -133
The Boston Red Sox have a decisive advantage on the mound tonight with Eduardo Rodriquez over Phil Hughes. Rodriquez has gone 1-1 with a 2.82 ERA in 4 starts this year, including 1-0 with a 1.56 ERA in his last 3 starts. Phil Hughes has a nice 4-1 record this season, but that's a fluke considering he sports a 5.06 ERA and 1.425 WHIP in his 5 starts. Hughes is 5-8 with a 5.19 ERA in 17 lifetime starts vs. Boston. Rodriguez is 1-1 with a 3.71 ERA in his 3 lifetime starts vs. Minnesota. The Red Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 games following a loss.
MARK FRANCO
San Francisco at Cincinnati
Play: San Francisco +105
The Cincinnati Reds were supposed to be in a rebuilding mode this season, but strong play of late has the team at .500 and pointed upward. The Reds will try to push their winning streak to three and move past the break-even point when they host the National League-worst San Francisco Giants in the opener of a three-game series on Friday.
Cain stumbled a bit in his first start this season but was dominant in the next four, allowing a total of three runs in 23 innings. The Alabama native only lasted five innings in a no decision against San Diego on Saturday but yielded one run while striking out seven without walking a batter. Cain won his lone start against Cincinnati last season and is 5-5 with a 3.44 ERA in 12 career starts against the Reds.
Arroyo is making a comeback after a 2 1/2-year layoff following arm surgery and posted a pair of wins over Baltimore and the Chicago Cubs on April 18 and April 23. The Florida native was not quite as sharp in his last start, when he was reached for four runs on five hits and four walks in four innings without factoring in the decision at St. Louis. Arroyo is 2-1 with a 5.29 ERA in three starts at home.
Giants are 4-1 in Cains last 5 starts with 5 days of rest. Reds are 3-14 in Arroyos last 17 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Teddy Covers
Rangers vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners +111
There’s not much to like about the Texas Rangers these days. The Rangers aren’t hitting, ranked as the #21 team in the majors with a .706 OPS. Their lineup has produced two runs or less in four of their last six overall, and nine of their last sixteen. The Rangers bullpen is spotty on a good day, ranked #27 in ERA and #25 in FIP. Five different relievers from that pen threw 107 pitches against the Astros yesterday, and this will be the Rangers eighth consecutive gameday without a day off for that bullpen to regroup.
Rangers starter Yu Darvish has not mowed down this Seattle lineup. Current Mariners have a .299 average against him and a .739 OPS. And Darvish is coming off back-2-back huge pitch count games, throwing 113 against the Royals, then 125 against the Angels in his last two trips to the hill; his two highest pitch counts since 2014. I’m not expecting a gem tonight against a Mariners team that has found their offensive stroke, pounding out 23 runs in their just concluded three game set against the Angels right here at Safeco Field.
Yovani Gallardo doesn’t bring much excitement or enthusiasm from the betting markets; a ‘tired retread’ type of veteran hurler. And his 1-3 record with an ERA over 5.00 isn’t going to attract much market support tonight either; hence the ‘plus price’ return on the Mariners as home dogs this evening.
But Gallardo’s advanced metric stats are truly impressive, with significant improvements over last year in his strikeout rate, walk rate, ground ball rate and swinging strike percentage. Current Rangers have hit only .250 against him in their careers, and Gallardo has thrown at least six strong innings in each of his last three trips to the hill. Wrong team favored here!
SPORTS WAGERS
Nashville +100 over ST. LOUIS
OT included. Despite losing 2-1 in Game 4 in Nashville, it was the first game of the series that the Blue Notes actually outplayed the Predators. The hockey writers in St. Louis are not ready to write the Blues obituary just yet, citing that the Blues have not been outplayed in this series. That’s the funny thing about sports. Two people can watch the exact same thing and have two completely different perspectives. The two people involved are usually one fan and one unbiased view. The point is, every fan thinks their team is better than it really is and that’s the case with the Blues’ writers. The Blues were completely dominated in their series victory over Minnesota. In the five games, they were the better team in one period. Against Nashville, the Blue Notes have had better moments but not many. In the Blues only victory in this series, they had five PP’s to the Preds none. That’s why St. Louis won. Five on five, they don’t score often. Five-on-five, the Blues have been dominated to a high degree in these playoffs in eight out of nine games. If they dig down deep and play their finest, of course they can win here because it’s one lousy game where anything is possible. However, if we’re sticking to playing value, Nashville must be played.
No question that the Preds are aware that they dodged a bullet last game. It’s not that they deserved to lose but they weren’t at their best and now this team with a sudden killer instinct has the Blue Notes by the throat. How do we know they have a killer instinct? Well, they won two in Chicago to open the playoffs and didn’t let them back in it. Up 3-0 against the Blackhawks, Nashville buried them for good in Game 4. After a split in St. Louis to grab home ice advantage, the Preds held serve and now they have their first chance of eliminating the Blues. Nashville figures to be better here in an attempt to crush any hope that the Blues may have. Nashville is so hungry and so determined. It’s unreasonable to expect a team to be at their very best every single game and Nashville is coming off a game in which they weren’t at their best. With the West Final in their sights, the Preds will leave nothing on the table here and likely put forth their best effort. The Preds best effort should defeat the Blues best effort almost every time and that’s more than enough to prompt us to pull the trigger.
ANAHEIM -½ +124 over Edmonton
Regulation only. In the aftermath of Game 4 in which the Oilers blew a two-goal lead, all the heat coming from Alberta's Capital is on the officials. The cries of “goalie interference”, “offsides” and “icing” were heard belligerently on the airwaves into the wee hours of Thursday morning. Those roars have bled into the off day with many in the Oilers organization making it known they disagreed with the “lack” of calls on the ice, from the head coach to the star players. What nobody in the Edmonton dressing room is talking about is how the Oilers so totally took their foot off the gas after playing arguably their best period of hockey in these playoffs. For 20-minutes you could squint and swear it was 1988. Unfortunately, one good period does not make a game and shabby officials or not, the Oilers blew a great opportunity to step on Anaheim's throat. You've got to be cold-blooded in this league and the Oilers weren’t. They also had no answer for Ducks captain Ryan Getzlaf. Oilers head coach Todd McLellan admitted as much publicly. Hockey is a funny game that often comes down to bounces. In Game 1, Adam Larsson's game winner went in on a funky bounce from behind the red line. In Game 4, the Ducks got some favorable calls. Over time, bounces usually even out but from our vantage point, the Ducks look ready to take control of this series.
Getzlaf is a killer and he led the Ducks to one of the most impressive periods of playoff hockey we've seen in a long, long time in period two of Game 4. It would have been easy for the Ducks to lie down and die in front of 19,000 frothing Oilers fans, but they didn't. Instead, Getzlaf dictated the play with a goal and a helper, as Anaheim outshot the Oilers 21-5 and more importantly took a 3-2 lead into the third period. The Ducks have outshot the Oilers in every game of this series. It might be easy to forget now, but before the Oilers Game 1 win, the Ducks were on a 12-game home point streak. They were arguably the best team on home ice in the final month of the season. Now after two home playoff losses, a correction is coming, as the Ducks are too big, too physical and too experienced to just let the upstart Oilers run their rink for a third straight game.
The books priced this game pretty much identical to Games 1 and 2 and with the Oilers high profile and success in Anaheim in this series, we can understand how that tag with this crew might look appealing. Plus, the Oilers are just an easy team to like. We get all of it. There was a time this past week where the Oilers actually moved into position as Stanley Cup favorites in Vegas. That word spread like wildfire across the country, as the Oilers are now "Canada's Team" in these playoffs (sorry Ottawa, you were never considered) and they are receiving all of the attention that comes with that. We have no doubt the Oilers' time will come but the Ducks time is now. Anaheim’s strong will and outstanding talent cannot allow the Oilers to come in here and steal another one. We’re betting on it.
SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago +149 over BALTIMORE
After an extremely emotional and intense four-game set with the Red Sox, the Orioles return home to play a less important weekend set with the South Side and it may take a day or two to get their mojo back or their intensity higher. Meanwhile, the White Sox continue to win more games than they lose and are bringing intensity to every game. They’ve been a live dog all season so far and they’re still underpriced. While we’re not high on Miguel Gonzalez (RHP), he’s giving the South Side a chance to win when he takes the hill so we’re not going to focus in on his flaws. The price here is sweet and this one is more about fading the O’s/Miley combo.
Enter Wade Miley (LHP) and his 2.32 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 38 K’s in 31 innings. Miley is 30 years old and has never shown numbers like this in the past nor a strikeout rate this high. What gives? Well, there’s a distinct difference in Miley’s pitch selection this year, ramping his sinker way up and all but abandoning his change. His slider and curve are both accumulating whiffs and grounders, and his bolstered sinker is killing worms as well. That said, his stock has never been higher and we’ll let others pay for five weeks of greatness while we pay attention to seven years of mediocrity. Miley went 13 ineffective spring training innings by allowing 21 hits and eight earned runs. Aside from July of last year, his bottom line was awful again. When a pitcher comes in and does “new” things, the adjustment period by batters is usually swift. Miley walked five batters in his last start in five innings and has now issued 19 BB's in 32 innings. His 10% swing and miss rate does not support 38 K’s in 32 innings but once again, surface stats will influence the price.
NOTE: We are still committed to playing one baseball total daily and will have today's posted sometime around 5:30 PM EST.
ATLANTA -1½ +177 over St. Louis
With a 2.45 ERA after five starts, Lance Lynn (RHP) figures to get some play here because the market pays for surface stats. We pay for skills and sub-indicators and while Lynn is absolutely serviceable, he’s not as good as his ERA suggests. In 29 innings, he’s walked 10 batters and struck out 25. That’s good but not great and it may surprise you to learn that the Braves have struck out the third fewest times in MLB. In his first two starts this year against the Cubs and Nationals, Lynn was hit rather hard and the Cardinals lost both games by scores of 6-4 and 8-3, respectively. In five innings in both starts, he threw 101 and 98 pitches, respectively. He then faced Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Cincinnati in his last three starts and put up some great looking pitching lines but the results were better than the performances. Lynn’s first-pitch strike rate is a mere 53%. His fastball tops off at 91.5 MPH, which is down from his 95 MPH fastball before TJS in November of 2015. In his last start, Lynn had an ugly 37%/25%/38% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split and he brings an xERA into this start of 4.02. Regression in Lance Lynn’s ERA may not happen here but regression is an absolute at some point and it very likely starts here.
St. Louis is 13-14 but there is nothing about them that looks promising this year. It’s also worth noting that both Dexter Fowler and Stephen Piscotty both left last night’s game so their outfield just got a whole lot thinner. We’re almost certain that Piscotty will end up on the 10-day DL and there’s a pretty good chance that Fowler will miss a game or two and maybe much more.
Mike Foltynewicz (RHP) went 9-5 with a 4.31 ERA in 123 innings for the Braves last year. Mediocre results cloaked this fireballer's steady skills growth, but he closed with a flourish as control improved and his K-rate spiked, which was backed by a strong swing and miss rate. A blood clot delayed Foltynewicz’s start last season and then elbow woes arose in June. He appears healthy now and thus, a breakout looms. The good news for everyone reading this is that Foltynewicz is 0-3 and that sticks out. Foltynewicz has always had a big arm, which helped make him a top prospect in most publications a few years ago. He hasn't made much of an impact yet in the majors, but that is about to change. Foltynewicz has shown the ability to miss bats and showed growth elsewhere in 2016, as he harnessed both his control and fly-ball tendencies. He was particularly effective down the stretch, when he recorded 42 strikeouts, and only 10 walks, in his last seven starts in 39.1 innings. His excellent pure stuff, strong pedigree and early season returns (2.81/3.11 ERA/xERA) puts this Atlanta starter high on our buy list of undervalued starters.
COLORADO -1½ +205 over Arizona
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
5-6 +5.88 units
Larry Ness
Toronto vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
These AL East rivals have seen a lot of each other in 2017, with the Rays taking three of four from Toronto in an early series at Tropicana Field and the Jays winning two of three when they played at Rogers Centre just last weekend. Toronto's recovered from a 1-9 start to go 8-10 its last 18 but at 9-19, the Jays own the worst record in MLB. It hasn't helped that third-baseman Josh Donaldson (calf) has been sidelined since April 13 while shortstop Tulowitzki (hamstring) has been out since April 21. However, both could return early next week. The Rays beat Miami 5-1 on Thursday and have won three of their last four games, allowing just four runs in those three victories, to reach 15-15.
The two teams square off at Tropicana Field for the first of a three-game series Friday night. Francisco Liriano (2-2, 3.97 ERA) opens the series for Toronto, while Chris Archer (2-1, 3.43 ERA) will take the mound for Tampa Bay. Liriano beat the Rays last Saturday in Toronto, allowing just one run on four hits over five innings. Liriano is 3-3 with a 5.49 ERA in 12 career appearances (11 starts / teams are 5-6) vs the Rays but he has struggled this season with his control, so far. He's walked 15 batters in just 22.2 innings.
Chris Archer is off a 'nightmare' season in 2016, when he went 9-19 with a 4.02 ERA in 33 starts. The Rays were 10-23 in those starts, giving him a MLB-worst minus-$1553 moneyline mark. Archer has gone win-less in his last three outings (0-2 with a 4.74 ERA / team is 1-2) but in his most recent start (April 30), he allowed just one ER on four hits in a no-decison against the Blue Jays (Toronto won 3-1). He is 6-4 with a 3.06 ERA in 21 career starts against the Blue Jays (Rays are 12-9).
Archer already owns two good starts against Toronto in 2017 (1.80 ERA) but has had to settle for two no-decisions. He's handled the Blue Jays well, giving two ERs or less in 12 of his last 13 starts against them. Considering that the Jays are only 6-11 on the road (allowing 5.9 RPG) to open the season and that the Rays are 10-5 at home, where they have averaged 5.20 RPG, make Archer and Tampa Bay the play.
Harry Bondi
CLEVELAND -3.5 over Toronto
Cleveland has executed a great game-plan over the last month. They tanked the last month of the season to come in 2nd in the Eastern Conference to face the Pacers instead of the tougher Bulls in the 1st round of the playoffs. They swept the Pacers and their in position to do the same to Toronto, ensuring plenty of rest before the Eastern Conference Finals. Cavs have completely dominated Raptors in the first two games and while you would ordinarily expect the home team down 0-2 to rally in this game, as Washington did last night ( we had them!), Toronto doesn’t have anybody that can cover Lebron James and with Cleveland focused on ending this series as quickly as possible its anothe Cav’s blowout. Raptors 0-4 ATS as home dogs in postseason while Cav’s are 4-0 ATS last 4 on the road.
Bob Balfe
Astros -130
The Angels have not hit left handed pitching well at all and there has been no better pitcher this year to this point with the brilliant outings we have seen from Luke Kuechel. I don’t see the Angels putting up many runs tonight.
GoodFella
Chicago / Baltimore Over 8.5
I have this game landing in double digits this evening. We have a great weather pattern, in a extremely friendly hitters venue here. Both clubs have had success vs the opposing SP & I also really like the fact that both clubs are in their best hitting posture for this game. The O's are most potent vs RH pitching, while the White Sox are way more dangerous vs LH pitching this season. I'm on the OVER 8.5 runs here & would play this up to over 9 fwiw.