DAVE COKIN
MARINERS AT ASTROS
PLAY: OVER 8
Two offenses that have it rolling right now get it on this evening as the Mariners and Astros continue their four-game weekend series.
Seattle came out on top with a 6-3 Thursday win and the Mariners have now scored 23 runs in their past three games. Houston hitters are happy to be home and the Astros have crossed home plate 25 times in their past three outings.
Taijuan Walker is now living up to the vast potential most experts believed he’s eventually flash, and he doesn’t figure to be easy to solve tonight. But the Astros have some lethal bats in their attack and they’re entirely capable of scoring on almost anyone in this ballpark. As for the Mariners, they’re no longer a station to station small ball entry that has to grind out runs. This team has some legit sock and I won’t be remotely surprised if they make life tough on Houston starter Doug Fister tonight.
I think we’re going to see some scoring at The Maid tonight. Both attacks are in superior form, it’s a ballpark that can definitely yield offense and on what projects as a nice, warm evening in Houston, the roof figures to be open and a decent breeze blowing out is in the forecast as well.
I like the idea of this game being reasonably high scoring. Over 8 looks quite playable and that’s the way I’m going to play this one.
Sleepyj
Oklahoma City +2
I'll grab OKC at home tonight...Coming off a win in San Antonio will do them wonders mentally...Most have the Spurs taking this series, but this game might belong to the Thunder..Big advantage playing at home in this series first game tonight...OKC found a few thing in Game 2 that helped them squeek out a win..If the Durant and Westbrook are hitting shots and creating open looks for the rest of the guys, they can hang in this game..Crowd should be insane for this one tonight..I'll take the home team getting a bucket.
Cleveland -2.5
Cavs look really strong right now..The last two games they had lead of 18+ pts or more..Now this game is on the road, but the Cavs are far stronger at this point of the season..This is the reason this Cavs team was assembled...To win and get to the finals..Haws can't win the rebounding battle and that alone puts them behind the 8 ball...They haven't won a rebounding battle in the 5 games these teams have met this year..I just don't see how the Haws mentally come prepared after two beatdowns in Cleveland..Cavs come to play tonight and cover the short number here.
Rob Vinciletti
Diamondbacks vs. Braves
Play: Diamondbacks -155
Arizona is 4-1 on the road with a total of 7 or less and has Greinke and his 1.93 road Era on the mound. Atlanta fits a database system that is 0-18 and pertains to teams that have lost 8 straight home games. The braves are 1-12 at home and home dogs off a road dog loss in this range are 2-13 vs a team that scored 4 or less runs. They have Blair on the mound and he has a 5.07 home Era. Look for Arizona to take the opener.
Marc Lawrence
Royals vs. Indians
Play: Indians -145
Edges - Indians: Danny Salazar 2-0 home team starts in this series; and 3-1 home career team starts during May. Royals: Yordano Ventura 1-9 career tram starts during May, including 0-5 away. With Salazar in great form with a 2.40 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP this season, and Ventura in struggling form with 11 BB’s and 10K’s in his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Mike Lundin
Mariners vs. Astros
Play:Mariners -106
The Seattle Mariners are sitting top of the AL West and defeated last placed Houston Astros 6-3 last night to make it 10 wins in 11 games. They'll send Taijuan Walker (2-1, 1.80 ERA) to the mound Friday night, and I like his chances to outperform the Astros' Doug Fister (2-3, 4.60).
Walker and Fister pitched opposite each other in a 3-2 Mariners win in Seattle on April 25 when Fister took the loss as he surrendered three runs on four hits and seven walks with a pair of homers in six innings. Walker was awarded with the win as he held the Astros to one run with 11 Ks in seven frames to improve to 5-1 with a 3.96 ERA in nine career starts against Houston.
Fister has put plenty of runners on base this season and has a 1.43 WHIP. The Mariners are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 9-2 in Walker's last 11 road starts.
Scott Spreitzer
Phillies vs. Marlins
Play: Marlins -127
I'm recommending a play on the Marlins on Friday as they look to extend their red-hot run to 11-1. We were hoping to be able to back Wei-Yin Chen often this season, making the move from the AL to the NL. His first start didn't go so well, but he's since thrown four quality starts in a row, while posting a 3.37 ERA & 0.97 WHIP (1.11 WHIP, overall in 2016). Chen is facing an anemic Phillies' offense that's scored a total of just 24 runs in their last nine games. Vincent Velasquez toes the rubber for the Phils, but while he has pitched well, the run support is not likely to follow. And in his first season as Marlins' manager, Don Mattingly's squad is actually a perfect 6-0 against starting pitchers who allow no more than 5.5 hits per game. Finally, the weak-hitting Phillies have won just two of their last 12 against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less.
Brad Diamond
Nationals vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs +100
This afternoon in Wrigley the favored Nationals (19-9) take on the #1 record in Baseball and the Chicago Cubs (21-6) in game #2 of the series. The Cubs won last night 5-2 with Hendricks on the hill. Here Chicago uses former Cardinal RHP Lackey who has a life time 1-0 and 3.86 ERA against the Nats. Washington, who has changed character, behind manager Dusty Baker looks to rebound off that loss. However, the Cubs have won 3 straight game #2 scheduled starts, 6-1 this season. The Nats do lead the series 17-11, 5-2 since 2012. However, prefer the more demonstrative offensive unit that has won the last 5-of-6 overall in the series and shows 57-21 vs. RHP nd 52-17 off a win. Realize this is Washington's best start in history, but the Cubs are RED HOT 4-0, 8-of-9 on the docket.
Jim Feist
Mets vs. Padres
Play: Over 6
The NY Mets have plenty of offensive punch, No. 11 in baseball in runs scored. New York is on a 9-4-1 run over the total, plus the over is 37-15-1 in the Mets last 53 road games. Noah Syndergaard is off a tough gane, a 6-1 loss allowing four runs on five hits and two walks against the Giants. The over is 8-2 when Syndergaard faces a team with a losing record. The Over is also 22-6 when the Mets are on the road vs. a team with a losing home record. San Diego is on an 8-3 run over the total. The over is also 5-1 in the last six meetings, including 6-2-1 over in this park.
Alex Smart
Seattle vs. Houston
Play: Seattle -106
The Mariners starting pitcher tonight , (Walker) is one of MLB up and coming hurlers. Actually in my humble opinion hes already achieved a top tier level of consistency, but still gets very little respect from the linesmakers. Considering the Mariners are 5-0 in their L/5 on the road, and 9-2 in Walkers L/11 away starts Im betting we have value with the visitors in this spot vs a below .500 Houston squad that has lost 11 of their L/16 overall. Walker owns a commanding 5-1 record along with a 3.96 ERA in nine career starts against the Astros and gets the nod again here .
Allen Eastman
New York Mets (-160) over San Diego
This game on Friday looks like another winner. The Mets' Noah Syndergaard is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He has a 2.51 ERA and an amazing 44 strikeouts to just six walks this year. He is coming off one of his worst starts in his young career. He gave up four runs and a big home run and took a loss against the Giants. I think that he will bounce back and I think that he will be unhittable in San Diego's stadium, which is pitcher-friendly. The Padres may have to go with a call-up to pitch in this game if they don't go with Colin Rea. San Diego is just 3-6 in its last nine games. They have not been playing well and will be no match for Syndergaard.
Jeff Alexander
Royals vs. Indians
Play: Royals +128
It's been a rough stretch for Kansas City of late, as the Royals have dropped 7 of their last 9 to fall to 14-13 on the season. I believe this poor stretch has KC showing some great value here as a dog against the Indians. Cleveland starter Danny Salazar has got off to a great start to 2016, but he's benefited from facing some weak offenses. His 5 starts have come against the White Sox, Rays, Mariners, Twins and Phillies. Salazar has a not so great 4.64 ERA in 9 career starts against the Royals, while KC stater Yordano Ventura is 4-1 with a 2.62 ERA in 7 starts against the Indians.
Brandon Lee
Red Sox vs. Yankees
Play: Red Sox +101
Boston is worth a look in Friday's series opener against rival New York. The Red Sox are playing their best baseball of the season with a 9-2 run over their last 11 games, which includes a 3-game sweep of the Yankees at home. Boston will send out the surging Rick Porcello, who enters a perfect 5-0 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.919 WHIP in 5 starts. Porcello threw 7 scoreless innings in a 8-0 win over Pineda and the Yankees in his last start. With that win, Porcello improved to 13-4 against the money line in his last 17 starts against a team with a losing record. He's also 14-4 in his last 18 road starts in the month of May and the Red Sox are 11-4 in their last 15 with a money line of +125 to -125.
Martin Griffiths
Middlesbrough vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
Play: Over 2½
Last game of the regular season and whoever wins this game gets automatic promotion to the richest soccer league in the world, a draw would also promote Middlesbrough, so Brighton have no choice but to go all out for the win.
This is akin to a cup game with Middlesbrough having the safety net of a draw being good enough and of course, they are also at home.
Statistics, form and so forth really do not count now, this is all about who is better on the day and truth be told, this game could go either way.
Middlesbrough have the advantage of course, but it is slight to be honest considering the quality of both teams and it really is guesswork to pick the outright result.
That does not mean there is not a pick to be had, there is, it is on the overs market.
Bottom line is Brighton must win, therefore they must score, that will dictate their thinking, same applies to Middlesbrough, they cannot lose no matter what, so if Brighton go ahead then they will go all out for an equaliser, if they go ahead then Brighton will go all out for an equaliser and a winner.
I see different scenarios playing out here and they all involve goals, therefore my pick is over 2.5 goals.
Jimmy Boyd
A's/Orioles Under 8
The books have set the total too high for Friday's series opener between the A's and Orioles. The UNDER has gone 10-3-2 in the Orioles 15 home games this season and I look for the low-scoring trend to continue with a underrated pitching matchup tonight.
Oakland will send out Rich Hill, who has a strong 2.53 ERA and 1.219 WHIP in 6 starts. Hill has been especially dominant on the road, where he's 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 0.895 WHIP in 3 starts. He faces a Baltimore offense that isn't exactly scoring runs in bunches. The Orioles have totaled just 6 runs in their last 4 games combined, scoring 1 or less in 3 of those games.
Baltimore will send out veteran Ubaldo Jimenez, whose 5.20 ERA and 1.699 WHIP in 5 starts is definitely keeping this total higher than it should be. The thing you have to keep in mind with Jimenez, is he pitches much better at home than on the road. He's also going up against sub-par Oakland offense, who figures to be a bit off their game after traveling across the country following a 6-game home stand.
The UNDER is 11-4 in the A's last 15 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 3-0-1 in their last 4 after a day off. UNDER is also 13-2-1 in the Orioles last 16 against a team with a losing record and 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less. Adding even more value here is the fact that the UNDER is 13-3 in Jimenez's last 16 starts with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs and 26-8 in Hill's last 34 starts with a money line of -100 to -150.