Free Picks for Saturday, February 11th, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
WARRIORS AT THUNDER
PLAY: THUNDER +7
This is Oklahoma City’s game of the year. It’s the return of Kevin Durant for the first time since leaving to join Golden State. The Thunder will be juiced for this game and so will a sellout crowd.
That’s the easy part of the assessment. The more difficult aspect is trying to beat the Warriors. I would think Golden State will also be very interested in this game. It’s not like I expect them to just roll over in what should be a highly charged atmosphere.
One thing the home team has going for it on paper is that it’s the second of back to backs for the Warriors. Golden State has been winning these situational spots, but they haven’t been covering. The Warriors are only 2-8 against the line when playing with no rest. The argument against them possibly being weary is that the win at Memphis was easy, as the Warriors got up early and were never threatened. Nevertheless, advantage Oklahoma City on the scheduling dynamics, and even if it’s a minimal edge, it’s still an edge.
I’m expecting this to be a beauty of a game, and one that I definitely can see going right to the wire. I’ll bank on the big incentive factor and will take the points with the Thunder.
Ken Thomson
S. Dakota -6.5
The Coyotes lost in the last seconds up in Brookings to South Dakota State 73-72. South Dakota was missing second leading scorer and leading rebounder Tyler Flack. He's back now! The Coyotes just rolled IPFW on the road, a very tough venue to win at and they did it Thursday by double digits while the Jackrabbits were getting pummeled by NDSU. This should be a double digit win for the Home town Coyotes!!
Louisiana Tech -7.5
Bulldogs should be focused to roll in this REVENGE GAME...La. Tech lost 69-68 at home to the Roadrunners. It was the only loss the Bulldogs suffered in an 8-game stretch. They should crush UTSA.
Chattanooga -2
After Wofford goes 4-OVERTIMES to beat Samford on Thursday night and Chattanooga loses heartbreaker at Furman, expect the Mocs to rock the Terriers!!
Scott Spreitzer
Marshall vs. Western Kentucky
Play: Marshall Pk
The Hilltoppers may be 8-1 SU at home this season, but they'll need more than just home court to avenge a 94-80 loss to Marshall last month. The Herd slammed the door on the defensive end, while making 49% of their FGA and 46% of their 3-pointers at the other end. WKU has not exactly slammed the door on the defensive end this season and we expect them to struggle here. Marshall averages 87 ppg and shoots well from the perimeter. While they have allowed a lot of points on the season, we don't believe the Hilltoppers can take advantage. Six Herd players average more than 10 ppg and they have an excellent disher in Jon Elmore, while Ryan Taylor owns the glass, capable of matching WKU's Justin Johnson.
Jesse Schule
Warriors vs. Thunder
Play: Under 227
The Golden State Warriors visit the Thunder Saturday, in Kevin Durant's first game back at Oklahoma City. This will be the third meeting this season, and the Warriors won the previous two at home. Both of those games were high scoring, but neither game reached the inflated total. Once again the bookmakers are calling for a shootout, with another inflated number. These teams have failed to reach the total in four straight meetings, and the under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. This is a huge game for both teams, and we should see both sides giving 100 percent on both offense and defense. The Warriors have gone under in 19 of their last 26 road games, while the Thunder have failed to reach the total in five of their last seven home games versus a team with a winning record. The Warriors dominated the first two meetings, and Kevin Durant went off for 39 and 40 points (his two highest totals of the season). Playing on back to back nights, and dealing with all the emotions, I could see Durant struggling in tonight's game.
Matt Fargo
Evansville vs. Southern Illinois
Play: Southern Illinois -3½
We are catching a very solid line with Southern Illinois as it returns home following a pair of road game. The Salukis defeated Loyola last Saturday but fell to Northern Iowa on Wednesday as the offense managed just 41 points against the Panthers which is the lowest scoring output of the season. They fell to 7-6 in the MVC which is still good for a tie for third place in the conference and the return home should keep them there. They are 10-4 at home with the two home conference losses coming against 12-1 Illinois St. and Northern Iowa by a point. Evansville has had a rough go of it after going 25-9 last season including a 12-6 record in the conference. The Purple Aces are just 3-10 in the MVC despite a pair of wins in their last two games as they went through a nine-game losing streak prior to that. Both of these recent wins have come at home and on the highway, Evansville is 1-10 with the lone victory coming at Austin Peay back in December. Going back, the Salukis are 22-9-3 ATS in their last 34 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game while the Purple Aces are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win.
Jack Jones
Miami (Fla) vs. Louisville
Play: Louisville -10½
Look for a big effort today from the Louisville Cardinals, who are coming off their worst loss of the season. They lost to Virginia for a second time this season, this time 55-71 on the road. The Cavaliers have clearly had their number over the last few seasons.
However, that loss comes with an asterisk. Second-leading scorer Quentin Snider (12.1 ppg), third-leading scorer Deng Adel (11.1 ppg) and fifth-leading scorer Mangok Mathiang (7.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg) all missed that game. But now all three are expected to be back against Miami Saturday, giving the Cardinals a huge boost that isn't being factored in enough with this point spread.
Miami has been one of the most overvalued teams in the country this season. The Hurricanes are a woeful 6-15 ATS in all lined games this year. Now they'll be up against a fired up Louisville squad that is 12-1 SU & 10-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 20 points per game.
The Hurricanes are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win. The Cardinals are 8-2 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season. The Hurricanes are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.
Chip Chirimbes
Providence +3½
No. 21 Butler is in third place in the Big East but have victories against both clubs in from of them in the standings with wins over Villanova and Xavier. Providence on the other hand in just 4-8 in conference but and outstanding 11-3 at home. The Friars who are coming off an overtime loss to Seton Hall is look to avenge an earlier 78-61 loss at Butler when the had their worst shooting game of the season. Providence has won six of the last eight meetings and are the side this afternoon.
Teddy Davis
Texas A&M +13½
The books have now adjusted their lines for Florida in a big way here since they have covered 5 in a row. Texas AM has won 4 of their last 6. I also like them here in this big underdog role as they went on the road @ West Virginia not to long ago and took them right down to the wire losing by 4. I do really like this Florida team going forward and into the tournament, but this line is just to high
Bryan Leonard
Warriors vs. Thunder
Play: Over 227
Should be an exciting homecoming for Kevin Durant as he heads back to OKC for the first time since leaving via free agency. Both teams want to run and the Warriors are likely to be a step slow defensively after playing in Memphis last night. Look for a major showdown offensively as this one sails over the posted number.
Marc Lawrence
Celtics vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz -5
Edges -Jazz: 12-4 ATS as a favorite in non conference games this season; and 5-1 ATS with same season loss revenge of 7 or more points versus foe off a SUATS win this season. Celtics: 1-5 ATS last six overall games; and 5-9 ATS following the Trail Blazers. With the Jazz looking to avenge an 11-point loss suffered in Beantown earlier this season, and Boston off a upset revenge win at Portland, we recommend a 1* play on the Utah Jazz.
Red Dog Sports
The Citadel vs. VMI
Play: Under 185½
This is a super high total as Duggar Baucom now coaches Citadel and used to be at VMI. An earlier meeting had just 153 points. VMI is playing their 4th straight home game. The last three meetings before that 153 saw 160, 153 and close to 200.
Citadel away games have seen 159, 148, 153, 195 and 156 points.
We could easily see 186 or more points with these two losing teams scoring points like a Lamelo Ball layup line but I like our chances of seeing an under on Saturday.
Mike Anthony
Texas A&M +13.5
Texas A&M has to make sure they do everything they can to keep the crowd out of the game. It is not going to be easy in Florida. They need to keep their guys going, and not getting stopped on long droughts, which they can fall into at times. They have limited scoring issues going on - and Florida will do enough, to keep Texas A&M on their toes. Florida needs to justify their potential bracket status. They have obviously gained a great deal of momentum recently, and that is a pretty huge pickup - we will see what the Gators bring to the game. This could be a game where Florida could blow them out, or it could be a tighter game than some expect. I think Florida is going to be ready but 13.5 pts is way too many.
Cajun Sports
San Francisco -3
PLAY: 3* (#688) San Francisco Dons -3.0 The BYU Cougars travel to the City by the Bay for a late tip on Saturday night against the host Dons of San Francisco. The Dons and Cougars are battling for third place in the West Coast Conference the Dons are currently 18-8 SU while the Cougars are 19-9 SU on the season. BYU is coming off a game in which they were installed as the favorite and now face a conference foe as an underdog has caused the Cougars to struggle in this situation with a record of 11-25 ATS. The Dons when coming off a win as a favorite and now face a conference have posted a record of 42-14-1 ATS. If they are now a conference favorite the record is 18-5-1 ATS. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 8.97 points in favor of the Dons. The combination of these factors makes this an easy call on the San Francisco Dons on Saturday night.
Rob Vinciletti
Orlando vs. Dallas
Play: Dallas -6
The Mavs have played much better of late and have covered 3 of the last 4 at home vs Orlando. Dallas is 3-0 ats at home if the total is 200 to 205 and has covered 6 of the last 7 as a favorite and 5 of 6 vs losing teams. Orlando has failed to cover 8 of the last 10 vs teams who allow 99 or more points. For our power system. We want to play on home favorites with a total of 200 or higher that covered as a home dog and scored 100 or more, vs an opponent that failed to cover as a home favorite despite scoring 100 or more. Look for Dallas to get the cover.