Brandon Shively
Orlando vs. Dallas
Pick: Orlando +6
There are some teams in the NBA that I automatically look to fade as a favorite and Dallas is one of them. The Mavericks are a team that has gotten better throughout the season, but they still play a lot of close games. Orlando is a team that has played in more close games. While the majority of those have been losses, it makes them undervalued in this spot.
The Magic made changes to the point guard position with C.J. Watson starting and moving Elfrid Payton to the bench. Personally, I like the switch giving them more offense off the bench and more defense with Watson.
The Magic are 7-1 ATS the last 8 times off 3 consecutive ATS losses. Look for the undervalued dog get the $$ again tonight
Bruce Marshall
Gonzaga at Saint Marys
Pick: Gonzaga
This might be the toughest remaining hurdle for Gonzaga to clear in its quest to stay undefeated heading into the Big Dance. And the matchups did not work for SMC in its earlier 79-56 beatdown in Spokane on Jan. 14, when Mark Few's Bulldog bigs clogged the lane and shut down the backdoor cuts that the well-schooled Gaels have employed to help them shoot better than 50% from the floor this season. SMC hit only 39.7% in the first meeting, and the backcourt matchup did not work for Randy Bennett, as Few's Pac-12 transfer Gs Nigel Williams-Goss & Jordan Mathews combined for 35 points to dominate their smaller Gael counterparts, Joe Rahon & Emmett Naar (only 5 of 20 from the floor between them). Before proceeding, make sure to check the status of key Zag G Williams-Goss, who was nursing a sore ankle into this weekend.
Jim Feist
South Carolina at Mississippi St
Pick: Under
South Carolina is a powerhouse defensive team, as the Gamecocks defense has forced at least 15 turnovers in every SEC game this season. South Carolina shot 26%, 5-31 long range, the last game in a 4 OT loss at home to Alabama. They are #10 in SEC in scoring (72.7 ppg), #12 in shooting (42.6%). South Carolina is 35-15-1 under the total on the road. Mississippi State is #8 in SEC in scoring (73.8 ppg), #6 in shooting (45%). The Under is 15-7 in the Bulldogs last 22 games as a home underdog. And when these teams clash the Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Mississippi St.
PORT PORT SPORTS
CENTRAL MICHIGAN -3
Not sure why this spread is so low actually as this is clearly a match-up of two squads on completely opposite ends of the Totem Pole as the Chippewas are hot and the Red Hawks are not. Central Michigan has won and covered in 2 straight and has posted a 5-1 ML and ATS mark in their L6 overall, with each of those wins coming by 4 points or more. They have won and covered in 2 straight on the road overall and they have played particularly well when playing as the road favorite this season. In fact, they have been money when playing as the favorite in any capacity this season, compiling a perfect 6-0 ML and ATS record in the 6 games they were laying the points this season, while also holding a 2-0 ML and ATS when playing as the road favorite. Miami on the other hand has currently lost 4 straight overall (0-3-1 ATS) and holds a 1-9 ML record in their L10 games overall. The Red Hawks have also dropped 3 straight on the ML and ATS when playing at home. They are 4-1-1 ATS when playing as the home dog this season, although they have only suffered two losses this season by less than 4 points and those occurred way back in November. The Chippewas have won 3 in a row against Miami, while also covering for their backers in each of the L4 meetings between the two schools. The road team is also 11-5 ATS in the L16 battles between these conference foes, with Central Michigan covering in both of the L2 meetings held in Ohio.
Brandon Lee
Michigan State -5½
The Spartans are worth a look here at home against the Hawkeyes. Michigan State was embarrassed last time out in 57-86 loss at in-state rival Michigan. That one isn't going to sit well with Izzo and you can be assured his team will be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this game. On the other side of this, we catch the Hawkeyes in a prime letdown spot after a crushing double-overtime loss at Minnesota on Wednesday. Iowa's only road win in conference play was against Rutgers and they are just 2-8 away from home on the season. On top of all this, Michigan State is playing with some revenge, as the Hawkeyes swept the season series a year ago. Spartans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games against conference opponents, while Iowa is just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after giving up 80 or more points in their previous game.
John Martin
Suns/Rockets Over 231.5
While this is one of the highest totals of the NBA season, I don't believe it's high enough. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series. The Suns and Rockets have topped 231.5 points in each of their last three meetings with combined scores of 246, 236 and 239 points, respectively. I expect we get more of the same tonight as this game sails well OVER the posted total Saturday.
Tony Karpinski
Marquette vs. Georgetown
Play: Over 156
Marquette has to prevent Georgetown from getting in the paint, they need to outwork Georgetown and block the Hoyas out on the defensive boards to have a chance. I really trust that to happen with Luke Fischer and Sam Hauser from Marquette who have been really good, particularly in the last month between the 2 of them. The big watch will be L.J. Peak to see what he does, in his continued chance to becoming a leader on the Hoyas. Marquette has a very good team. Simply put, this season isn't a weird sort of fluke, they have been getting loads of points - but their D has been average . Georgetown have been adequate at home, but they will be in trouble here as well - and I trust Marquette to make that happen.
Black Widow
Bucks vs. Pacers
Play: Bucks +7
Bets on underdogs (Milwaukee) a cold team that has failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15 games against an opponent like Indiana that has covered the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games are 82-38 ATS since 1996. The Bucks are getting to the point where they are catching too many points tonight on the road against the Pacers, and there is clearly some value in backing them here.
Jimmy Boyd
Washington vs. Utah
Play: Utah -12
I have no problem backing the Utes at home as a double-digit favorite against the Huskies. Utah was able to snap a short two-game skid with a 74-70 win at home against Washington State. It was far from an impressive performance and head coach Larry Krystkowiak made sure to let his team know it. It was a bit of a flat spot and now has them primed for a huge bounce back effort here at home against Washington.
The big news with this game and the Huskies is whether or not star freshman Markelle Fultz will play, as he sat out the last game with knee pain. Given how the Huskies are 9-15 and have nothing to play for, I have a hard time believing they will rush him back. With that said, even if he does play, I still like the Utes here. Note that Fultz ha 30 points at home against the Utes earlier this season and Washington still lost the game by 22-points. This is also an awful spot for the Huskies, playing in the thin air of Utah just 2 days after playing in the thin air of Colorado. Not to mention Washington is 2-8 on the road, while the Utes are 11-3 at home. If Fultz ends up sitting this is going to get ugly in a hurry and if he plays I still see the Utes winning by 15+ points.
Dave Price
Connecticut vs. UCF
Play: UCF -4
The UCF Knights have gone through a brutal schedule of late, which is why they are 1-5 in their last 6 games overall. They lost on the road to Memphis, Tulsa, Houston and Cincinnati. In their two home games during this stretch, they only lost by 5 to SMU, but thumped Memphis by 15. Now they get a break as UConn visits with an 11-12 record on the season. The Knights are 11-2 at home this year, holding foes to just 56.6 PPG and 32.5% shooting. The Huskies have taken advantage of an easy schedule of late to go 4-1 in their last 5 games overall, but the 4 victories came against AAC bottom feeders South Florida (twice), ECU and Tulane. The loss was a 14-point setback at Cincinnati. UCF is 12-4 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Huskies are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5. The Knights are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.
David Banks
Gonzaga @ St. Mary’s
Pick: St. Mary's +4.5
Annually, it is the biggest game in the West Coast Conference. On Saturday night, McKeon Pavilion on the campus of Saint Mary’s University will be packed as the nation’s No. 1 team, Gonzaga, looks to keep its unbeaten season intact. The Zags, now 24-0, beat the Gaels 79-56 on their home floor back on Jan. 14. Saint Mary’s, ranked No. 18, would like nothing more than to return the favor.
The Gaels are one of the best defensive teams in the nation. They are second in the country giving up a paltry 56.6 points per game. Saint Mary’s is coming off a conference win over San Diego in which they gave up just 27 points. The Gaels held San Diego to just 19.6 percent shooting from the floor and out-rebounded the Toreros, 43-23. The first time Saint Mary’s met Gonzaga, the Bulldogs shot nearly 65 percent from the floor and they outrebounded the Gaels.
The key for Saint Mary’s, of course, is their big man, 6-11 Jock Landale. Landale is the team’s leading scorer (16.9 ppg) and rebounder (9.5). He hits over 60 percent of his shots from the floor and is a defensive presence inside. It will be up to the rest of the lineup to rise up and play their best game of the season.
Gonzaga holds an edge in talent and athleticism. The Bulldogs can counter Landale with 7-1 Przemek Karnowksi who averages 12.3 points and 5.5 rebounds a game. Leading scorer Nigel Williams-Goss (15.6 ppg) is difficult to defend and Zach Collins (10.8 ppg) and Jordan Mathews (10.5 ppg) can pick up the slack if needed. Gonzaga is No. 1 for a reason. They can score – Gonzaga is 12th in the nation averaging 85.4 points per game – and they play great defense – 61.7 points a game which is ninth-best.
Strike Point Sports
Maryland (-7.5) over Ohio State
The Terps continue to impress, as well as perhaps over-deliver, on what most thought Maryland would be this season. Just one game back of Wisconsin for first place in the Big Ten, this afternoon's home game is a good chance to further their momentum and chase the Badgers. OSU is just 3-7 in conference play, and considering the Buckeyes did win outright in their last road game at Michigan; we'll fade them here. They've been too inconsistent to think they can earn back-to-back road wins against winning teams. I like Maryland by 10 here.
Robert Ferringo
Arizona (-7.5) over California
Arizona is going to be pissed off this weekend. They took their first loss of Pac-12 play last week up in Oregon. And not only did they lose, but they got their skulls caved in by 25. That is not going to bode well for Stanford, whom the Wildcats play on Thursday, or Cal this weekend. I think Cal is going to get the worst of it in this one because they have actually been pests for the Wildcats the last two seasons. These two played a tight five-point game in Cal on Dec. 30 and they split the series last season. However, Cal has struggled in Tucson. They lost by 33 down there in 2015 and by 28 in 2014. I think that this game could be that type of bloodbath. The Wildcats have won their home games by an average of 17 points per game this year, and the Golden Bears have been shaky, at best, away from home. The last top-tier team Cal faced on the road was Oregon - and they lost by 23. They also lost by 10 at UCLA on Jan. 5. I don't think they will keep this one within double-figures, either.
Alex Smith
New York vs. Ottawa
Play: New York -105
Two Eastern Conference clubs hook-up in the Canadien Capital for a matinee affair between the New York Islanders and the Ottawa Senators. The Isles have been playing wonderful hockey since they promoted assistant coach Doug Weight to the top spot, going 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and now sit just a point behind division rivals Philadelphia for that 2nd and final Wild Card berth. Their offensive production has been stellar, scoring 3 or more goals in 17 of their last 21 contests, and combined with the strong goaltending from Thomas Greiss, who has won 8 of his last 11 starts, New York is a team on the rise that could be a trade deadline move away from having a true dark horse contender for the postseason. Ottawa has been sitting sturdy at 2nd place in the Atlantic Division, but have fallen into a bit of a slump, losing 2 of their last 3 games, and getting shutout in back-to-back contests earlier this week. The Sens have been playing down to their lesser competition over the last several games and they cannot afford to overlook this Islanders team as they are moving in the right direction, playing some good hockey at the moment. New York has won 6 of the last 10 meetings versus Ottawa and are 5-1-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog. This is a very solid price to back the Isles on Saturday afternoon.
RAY MONOHAN
Oregon vs. USC
Play: USC +2½
Conference road games are always tough. Here, the Trojans welcome in the #6 team in the nation, but they are the ones with value. USC has been dominant at home this year. The Trojans enter play a solid 12-2 while outscoring their opponents on average 82-69.
As for Oregon, they are just 3-3 on the road and have really struggled to get things going on both sides of the ball. They sit well below their season average as far as points per game goes and give up nearly 70 points against.
Some trends to note. Trojans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Saturday games. Trojans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
This is a nice spot for the Trojans. Grab the points as this place will be rocking.